A Few Boring Days Then Maybe A Change

1/9/22 Sunday 9:30 am

Saturday’s storm was as expected, with no surprises. Models usually struggle with small storms but they did well this time. Telluride and Wolf Creek ended up with 4 inches. The 550 passes had 3 to 4 inches and I believe Silverton joined Ouray with 3 inches,  Purgatory ended up with 2 inches.

The models are still struggling with next weekend. Originally the models were showing a storm coming in under the ridge after Wednesday. Then they started focusing on the Thursday through Saturday timeline. The latest European operational model is showing nothing. The Euro ensemble members still showing something happening. The latest operational model may be an anomalous run or it may be on to something.

The GFS and Canadian operational models as well as their ensemble family members are still showing a small messy storm coming in from Thursday through Sunday.

Between the two the Canadian is the messiest so let’s take a look at it. I put the maps in motion and you will see four colors in action. We usually see various shades of blue and green. In those scenarios, blue is snow and green is rain. There are a couple of other colors we don’t often see–orange and pink. Orange is sleet, pink is freezing rain. The darker the shade of a color, the heavier the form of precipitation.

This is the regional view. It starts Thursday morning as warm moist air moves into Arizona and southern Utah. It ends Saturday night.

I am not posting this with a high degree of confidence. It is not something to worry about yet. If you do have travel plans for the weekend file it away for now as a slight possibility. I will keep an eye on it for you, so no need to ask me about travel destinations yet. If need be I will start taking those questions on Wednesday.

My plan this week is to keep an eye on this and any other features that the models present. I will try to do at least a short update every day.

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