Extended Outlook

1/14/21 Friday 8:45 am

Thank you for all of the emails. I am not back to 100% but I am on the way. Unfortunately, there is not a lot to talk about. What looked like a hint of a pattern change around the 23rd, now just looks like a small disturbance caught up in northwest flow.

For today, there may be a few flurries or light snow from Ouray to Coal Bank.  There should not be any significant accumulations.

The dominant ridge is locked in over the western US. There is going to be a deep trough over the eastern half of the US. This is going to be a perfect setup for a couple of Nor’easters and some very cold weather for those folks. It will likely lead to higher energy prices and energy shortages. There are going to be a lot of weather stories over the next couple of weeks!

The longer-range models are showing a pattern change towards the end of the month. They are also showing slightly above average precipitation for the month of February.

For the next couple of weeks, it does not look favorable for any significant precipitation. Sometimes, the models lock in these ridges in the west for too long. Things can change pretty quickly. Assuming the models are correct, and we stay another 2 weeks or so under high pressure, here is the 15-day forecast from the Euro ensemble model. This is total liquid precipitation in inches through January 28th.

When I put the maps in motion in one-day increments you can see the pattern change kick in and the precipitation start accumulating. This is Friday, January 28th through February 27th.

The GFS extended model is showing something very similar. As I said earlier a lot can change pretty quickly.

I will be posting as the situation warrants. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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