1/19/22 Wednesday 7:15 am
For the last couple of days, the models have been in fairly good agreement that a potent system in the Northwest will move east, split apart, then send one wave onto the northern plains states. The other wave is forecasted to drop down through Utah into northern Arizona and close off near the four corners.
This sounds great, it is usually a good setup for our area. Unfortunately, all of the moisture this storm will have to work with will come with it. Often times systems that are set up like this will draw moisture and mix with something coming from the Socal Pacific coast. That appears unlikely with this system, but most of us are craving some (any) moisture about now. The good news is that it appears that it will be cold enough for snow across the forecast area.
Here are the various models showing the forecasted liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts for Friday through Saturday. To convert to snow multiply by 10 up to 7,300 feet. Multiply by 12 above 7,500 and by 14 at or above 8,800 feet.
Based on the other model runs, there is a possibility this is an anomalously low run. Compare that run with this run from the same model 12 hours earlier.
Things should dry back out over the weekend with the next chance of precipitation next week, 1/25-1/26.
My next update will be Thursday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!