A Little To A lot Of Snow Is On The Way

2/1/22 Tuesday 7:50 am

I get a lot of emails when I complain about model inconsistencies and model accuracy. Many of us in SW Colorado live in our own little weather bubble. It is easy to tune out what is going on with the weather nationally.

A lot of the model struggle happens in our area when our storms are part of a much bigger picture downstream of us.

In this storm’s case what happens here is going to have a huge effect on a major long wave storm stretching from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes and into the New England Region. Heavy snow is going to accumulate over ice and sleet.

Putting the maps in motion, here is a look at the big picture.

Here are the precipitation totals

Freezing rain

 

Snow

 

When the models started to (briefly) align Sunday night into Monday morning they were forecasting a more favorable jet placement over our area. Recent model runs have focused that jet over the eastern portions of the forecast area.

According to the overnight model runs, Archuleta and Mineral Counties are going to be favored for this storm, especially from Pagosa up to Wolf Creek.

Here are the latest high-resolution model runs that just came out.

NAM 3km

 

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