Snow Then COLD on the way

2/1/22 Tuesday 4 pm

One of the things I have not talked about is how cold it is going to get after the cold front passes. We are going to experience some of the coldest daytime highs Wednesday-Friday that we have seen in 5 or 6 weeks.

Snow has started to fall at Telluride and Wolf Creek, the snow will continue to work south and to the lower elevations between now and tomorrow morning.

I usually wait until later in the day to post these forecasts before a storm. I like to get the input from the afternoon Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.  But, almost unbelievably, they did not have one, they simply cut and pasted their short-term discussion from 4:28 am this morning. I don’t think it is an error because they updated their long-term discussion. I hope it is an oversight. I am going to treat it as a simple error, and hope they will correct it tonight.  If they don’t I will have more to say about it in the future.

Here is my forecast, based on several models I saw today. I feel pretty good about the Wolf Creek forecast, besides that, I forecasted a wide range in my totals because I have low confidence with this forecast.

16 to 24 inches:  Wolf Creek

8 to 12 inches:  Coal Bank, Molas

6 to 10 inches: Purgatory, Pagosa Springs

5 to 8 inches:  Vallecito, Lemon above 8,500 feet, Wilderness, Deer Valley Estates, Red Mountain, Silverton in town

3 to 6 inches:  Rico, Telluride

3 to 5 inches: Mayday, Upper Forest Lakes,  Upper Durango Hills, Aspen Trails, Los Ranchitos, Trew Creek, Tween Lakes, Lower Forest Lakes, Glacier Club, Hesperus Hill, Hesperus Ski Area, Durango Ridge Ranch

2 to 4 inches: Ouray, Forest Groves, Falls Creek (north), Lower Forest Lakes, Lower Durango Hills, Rockwood, Pine River Ranches, DW 1&2, Lake Durango, Edgemont Ranch, Edgemont Highlands, Bear Creek, Lower Durango Hills, Rafter J, Falls Creek (south), Timberdale, Bayfield, Elk Stream Ranch

1 to 3 inches: Durango in town, Hermosa, Celadon, Shenandoah, Ignacio, Mancos

Up to 2 inches: Cortez, Marvel, Kline, Bondad, Rancho Durango

Up to 1 inch: Aztec

My next update will be Wednesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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