2/16/22 Wednesday 9 am
I am anxious to start talking about next week and my confidence is increasing that we will finally have a shot at some decent precipitation next Monday night through Thursday. After Thursday, it looks like there may be additional chances for precipitation before the end of the month.
Meanwhile, a storm is going to move swiftly through the forecast area from north to south beginning this afternoon. A cold front will be the main trigger for precipitation as the closed low-pressure system tracks well south of our area. This will limit the amount of moisture that comes in southwest flow. The favored areas for snow accumulation will be the northern portions of the forecast area: Telluride, Red Mountain, and Ouray.
I do not have a lot of confidence in the forecast for other areas. As I have said, these split-flow systems often like to reunite and redevelop to our east. The models tend to overproduce snow amounts for areas that favor southwest flow.
With that being said here is my forecast.
Red Mountain, Telluride, Silverton: 3 to 6 inches
Wolf Creek, Purgatory, Ouray: 2 to 4 inches
Mid-elevation areas: 1 to 4 inches
Low-elevation areas: 0 to 2 inches
There are some models suggesting that snow showers may redevelop Thursday afternoon, mainly near Wolf Creek. More on that tomorrow.
My next update will be on Thursday. I will be taking a closer look at the pattern change coming our way. Thanks for following and supporting the site!