Sunday Afternoon Model Update

2/20/22 Sunday 1:30 pm

The Canadian model won’t be joining us on this post. My weather model provider said that the Canadian government has not been reliable in getting the data out to the providers. Their words, not mine.

The models continue to pump out a lot of precipitation with these storms. They are starting to show a bit of a lull between the two systems that make up this event. At the moment it looks like the snow may take a break or at least slow down a bit Tuesday afternoon before picking up again Tuesday night.

With these double-barreled storm systems, the models always struggle with how much snow will fall with each system, but they do pretty well when it comes down to event totals. I prefer to forecast for the event totals and I tell people to wait until the second storm departs before they judge the event. At the moment I am leaning towards a heavier snow event with the second batch from Tuesday evening through Thursday.

No changes yet out of the National Weather Service Offices. Low elevation totals always scare them because they hate to overpromise and underdeliver. I totally understand that, but I will have specific forecasts for all areas out on Monday afternoon.

Here are the latest model runs. They show total liquid precipitation from Monday evening to the last flakes which will likely be sometime on Thursday.

The GFS backed off just slightly in the lower elevations with this run. I do mean slightly. I am anxious to see its next run to see if that was an anomaly. Either way, it still looks great.


The Euro is coming along but I still think it is missing the boat on the Wolf Creek total. It has had a history of doing that and it has the lowest totals for WC of all of the other models I have looked at.


The German model has gone in the opposite direction and really cranked up the low and mid-elevation totals compared to its prior run. The Wolf Creek total with this model is 3.6″.

NOAA blended NBM model

Unless I see or read something interesting this afternoon, my next update will be Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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