Detailed Forecast For Major Winter Storm Event

2/21/22 Monday 3 pm

Do you know how to tell when the National Weather Service is confident about the details of, what they describe as, “A significant and hazardous Winter Storm” ? The answer is when they do a very early release of their afternoon forecast discussion. There is really nothing more to say, no other details for them to double-check. They can’t find any potential for error so why not release the forecast discussion early.

That is why I am releasing my forecast earlier than anticipated. I just finished it, and I did not expect the discussion until after 4 pm. I always like to read what they have to say before I post an update or my forecast.

Just a reminder, this forecast applies to the duration of the event from the first flakes tonight to the last flakes, regardless of whether that is Wednesday night or Thursday afternoon.

52 to 60 inches:  Wolf Creek Pass

30 to 36 inches:  Purgatory at 10,000 feet

24 to 32 inches:  Silverton in town, Mayday, Vallecito  Lemon, Wilderness, Rico

20 to 26 inches:  Telluride, Red Mountain, Hesperus Ski Area, Upper Forest Lakes, Upper Durango Hills, Aspen Trails, Los Ranchitos, Trew Creek, Tween Lakes, Glacier Club, Forest Groves, Falls Creek north, Silverton in town, Pagosa Springs.

16 to 22 inches:   DW 1&2, Lake Durango, Edgemont Ranch, Edgemont Highlands, Bear Creek, Lower Durango Hills, Rafter J, Falls Creek South, Pine River Ranches, Durango Ridge Ranch, Lower Forest Lakes, Lower Durango Hills, Falls Creek south, Deer Valley Estates

10 to 14 inches:  Durango, Bayfield, Breen, Dolores, Hermosa, Trappers Crossing, Long Hollow Ranch@141, Mancos in town, Ouray

6 to 10 inches:  Cortez,  Marvel, Kline, Ridgway,  Ignacio, Bondad, Rancho Durango

4 to 6 inches:  Aztec

My next update will be Tuesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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