Tracking The Pattern Change

2/27/22 Sunday 7:40 am

The best way to track a potential pattern change is to look at the forecast for the upper air height anomalies. Another way of saying that is that we are looking at the forecast for high-pressure ridges and low-pressure troughs.

When you are looking for an extended change in the pattern, the most reliable models several days out are the ensemble models. The ensemble mean run shows the average of all of the model members that make up that model family.

The colors on the map represent positive anomalies (high pressure) and negative anomalies (low pressure). High pressure usually equates to an inactive weather pattern. Low pressure is indicative of an active weather pattern.

Here are the forecasts for the upper air height anomalies from the European and GFS ensemble models beginning Wednesday, March 2nd, and ending around March 14th. The “cool” tones of blue and green represent low pressure and a potentially active weather pattern. The “warm” tones of red and orange indicate high pressure and a less active weather pattern.



It is too early to switch over to the operational models for the details. However, based upon the upper air height forecasts, it appears we will be transitioning into a more favorable pattern for storms to develop over the intermountain west.

My next update will be Tuesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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