A Return To Unsettled Weather

3/1/22 Tuesday 7:25 am

Enjoy the spring-like conditions over the next couple of days because a change is coming. A system will begin working into the forecast area sometime on Friday, bringing snow to the higher elevations with a mixed bag of precipitation for other areas. I put the maps in motion to show you how this will evolve. This shows the forecast beginning Thursday morning and ending Monday morning. Notice the transition from Thursday to Friday as the series of storms move across the area.

I stopped this on Monday morning because the models are not in good agreement on what day the next storm cycle will begin next week. The good news is it looks like the pattern will remain active with more precipitation until at least mid-March.

The Canadian model is having data delivery problems again. Here are the forecasted precipitation totals from the latest GFS and European Ensemble models, followed by their latest operational runs. This shows the forecasted totals from Friday through Monday morning.

GFS Ensemble

GFS Operational

Euro Ensemble

European Operational

You may notice that the operational runs are trending higher than the ensemble runs. That is usually a good sign because as we get closer to the start of the event the ensembles tend to lag the operational models. This will likely be the last day that I post the ensembles for this storm cycle.

It is too early to even attempt to predict the snow levels but they will start off high on Friday and hopefully drop throughout the weekend.

My next update will be Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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