Spring Turns To Winter

3/3/22 Thursday 12:20 pm

The Euro model continues to be the outlier this afternoon. Most of the models are showing the potential for another round of heavy snow for the mountains this weekend. If you average out all of the model forecasts, 12 to 24 inches of snow will be possible in the higher elevations from Purgatory to Telluride. 18 to 30 inches are possible at Wolf Creek by Monday morning.

That is not my forecast yet, but I wanted people to know what I am seeing from the models.  Every model except the Euro has had good run-to-run consistency. Here are the model forecasts I averaged out to arrive at those numbers.







NOAA’s NBM National Blend Of Models


I will get into more details tomorrow morning. I expect some locations to start seeing light snow showers tomorrow morning. I do not think conditions will be impacted by snow across the lower elevations during the day on Friday. The pass areas will be impacted as early as late Friday afternoon.

One of the things I have not talked about are the convective conditions that will develop Friday afternoon. During the summer I often talk about CAPE. CAPE is an acronym for Convective Available Potential Energy. The higher the CAPE values, the greater the chances of thunderstorms developing.

The CAPE forecast will be more accurate tomorrow morning as we get closer to the event. Early indications are that we will have a very good chance for thunderstorms with lightning developing Friday afternoon, especially in the lower and mid-elevations.

My next update will be Friday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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