Friday 3/4/22 1:55 pm
The low pressure to our southwest has slowed (but not stalled).
As the main low pressure off of the SoCal coast comes ashore it will nudge the low and trough towards our forecast area. Although I can’t completely rule it out, chances have decreased for thunderstorms this afternoon as a result of the storm slowing. It is better for us that the onset of precipitation will occur while the temperatures are cooling later in the day and this evening. As I said, better late than early.
The morning models did not initialize very well with regards to the timing of the onset of precipitation and the forward progress of the storm. There was little change in the multi-day precipitation amounts.
As I hinted this morning, I am going to forecast the storm cycle snow totals from today until Monday for the higher elevations. For the lower and mid-elevations, I am going to forecast the totals through Saturday morning. I will decide how to proceed going forward tomorrow morning.
Higher elevation snow totals now until Monday
Telluride, Silverton, Mayday: 12 to 16 inches
Purgatory, Rico: 15 to 20 inches
Wolf Creek: 18 to 24 inches
Mid and low elevation snow tonight through tomorrow morning
Areas below 7,000 feet: up to 1 inch
7,100 to 7,800: 1 to 3 inches
7,800 to 8,400 feet: 2 to 4 inches
Unless I see something interesting later this afternoon, my next update will be Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!