As we get closer to the start of a precipitation event, additional shorter range models become available. Today we can get some perspective from a couple of blended models from the NOAA’s NWS and WPC (Weather Prediction Center). We also can bring in the German Model.
All of the models are still showing the first system coming in very late on Monday or very early on Tuesday. The first system will wind down some time on Wednesday and there will be a lull until late Thursday when the next system comes in. All of the other models are on board with the second system, however, the most recent Canadian and GFS are less aggressive with the duration and precipitation totals of the second system.
As I said earlier we have more models at our disposal now so here are the totals from both systems from the first flake or raindrop through next weekend.
WPC blended model
NBM blended model
German ICON model
For what it is worth here was the Canadian 12 hours earlier. If you average out the two runs it looks similar to the German model.
And here is the GFS which is a bit of an outlier at the moment
Tomorrow I will do an update in the morning and in the afternoon. We should see some type of advisory out of the NWS on Monday for areas above 9,000 feet. Thanks for following and supporting the site!