3/31/22 Thursday 12:45
The morning models produced a real mixed bag of solutions. The higher amounts from the GFS in the areas above 9,000 feet look suspicious to me.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Euro and German models show a band of heavier precipitation moving just south of the Colorado border. This looks out of place as well.
That leaves the Canadian model which shows the heaviest precipitation in the western and eastern portions of the forecast area.
This leaves me in a bit of a dartboard forecasting situation. Here is the surface map showing the front stalled off to our west.
Most models show the precipitation building in from 6 pm to midnight and departing the area by tomorrow afternoon.
The reality is that unless something changes this is going to be a low-impact event so I am not going to sweat too much over the forecast.
Low and mid-elevation areas will see rain then a rain-snow mix by the morning. Areas at 7,400 feet and above will see all snow by morning accumulating on the grassy areas.
I feel 3 to 5 inches of snow are possible for Telluride and Wolf Creek with 2 to 4 inches of snow at Purgatory.
My next update will be sometime on Friday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!