Tracking Next Week’s Storm

4/6/22 Wednesday 4:30 am

Cooler temps today on the backside of the dry cold front. Overnight temperatures will be well below normal tomorrow morning. This is the time of year when newly relocated residents get anxious to plant vegetation in their yards. Bad idea–just because we get a handful of warmer spring days does not mean we are done with sub-freezing temperatures.

I have been having fun watching the models handle next week’s storm. The European ensemble and the GFS ensemble have been eerily similar with their outputs. Their operational runs have been generating abundant liquid for next week. It is too early to be making plans around such an event occurring but as I said it is fun to watch!

Here are the 500 MB runs from the ensembles. These are the ones that show the high and low-pressure anomalies. The blues and greens show the potential storm tracks. These begin on Friday and end the following the 15th.

GFS ensemble

European ensemble

The closer we get to such an event the ensembles tend to lag the operational models in precipitation output. Therefore are I am starting to track the operational models. Here are the operational models showing their early take on what this storm track could produce for liquid (SWE) and snow before melting. This is for Monday through Friday next week.

GFS liquid

GFS snow before melting

European liquid

European snow before melting

As I said earlier, it is too early to start making plans for this potential event, but it is good to keep in the back of your mind that potential exists for this to happen.

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