Tuesday Severe Storm Outlook

4/12/22 Tuesday 12:10 pm

This morning the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) upgraded portions of the state of Iowa from a category 3 to a category 4 (out of 5) risk for severe weather.

Here is the latest guidance for today.

There is a high probability of large hail with a diameter of 2 inches or greater. That is approximately the size of the lid of a soda can. See below where there is a 30%+ chance to 45%+ chance of that happening.

Hail Outlook

With this severe weather, there is a high risk of EF2 or higher tornadoes.

Tornado Outlook

With a number of family and friends in Iowa, I was compelled to look at a couple of other model parameters.

The Significant Tornado Parameter Index (SigTor) takes into consideration several parameters that are present when tornadoes form and then assigns a value from 0 to 10 for a given location which determines how likely it is for those values to be present for a significant tornado to form.

I put the map in motion showing the SigTor values between  2 pm this afternoon and 1 am Wednesday morning. Values greater than 1 are indicative of the increased potential of significant tornadoes.

The index only goes to 10. Take a look at this still frame at 5 pm. You will notice some of the values are between 10 and 14!

Prepare for a major tornado outbreak later today and tonight in the midwest.

My next severe weather outlook will be on Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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