4/27/22 Wednesday 6 am
Today a weak shortwave trough is going to rotate across the forecast area. Models are stumped regarding the track. They are in agreement for the most part that the system will generate very little beneficial precipitation. The exception is one high-resolution model. Overnight it showed significant precipitation (over 0.25″) across Archuleta County. I doubt it, but it is worth a mention.
I know, every drop counts. However, at the risk of offending the easily offended, I refer to these as nuisance storms. Sometimes these systems have some instability with them, but there is enough of a sub-cloud dry layer that evaporates any rain before it hits the ground. That leaves us with the chance of dry lightning. Dry lightning and wind are nobody’s favorites.
Speaking of fires, I have been watching the wildfire smoke parameter from one of my models. It has been trying to bring some smoke from the Crooks Fire (south of Prescott, AZ) across portions of the forecast area. The fire is a little over 20% contained at the moment but they will be encountering some critical fire conditions today. Just a heads up, if you smell smoke that is likely (hopefully) the source.
Here is the Pollen Forecast for today.
Northern San Juans
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