5/16/22 Monday 7 am
On Saturday, I talked about short-term relief from the enhanced winds that we had been experiencing in April and May. Today through Wednesday you will notice an uptick in the afternoon winds as the ridge flattens and moves east of us.
There is a chance of some high elevation nuisance storms breaking out on Wednesday afternoon. By nuisance, I mean that very little precipitation will reach the ground and there is a chance of convection producing some dry thunderstorms.
By late in the day Thursday a trough of very low pressure (for this time of year) will move through the region bringing rain and snow to much of the State. Snow could fall east of the divide down to 6,500 feet or lower which would affect many of the local mountain communities close to Denver and Colorado Springs. If you are planning on traveling to the Front Range on Friday you will want to start monitoring the situation.
The GFS and European models are handling the situation a bit differently. The GFS is digging the trough deeper into the west. The European model is moving it east quicker. This is a bit of a head-scratcher because it is uncharacteristic of both models. In other words, they are behaving more like each other than themselves.
Here is the GFS starting Thursday afternoon and ending Sunday morning.
Here is the European model during the same time period.
Either way, the pressure gradient is going to get tightened and we will see enhanced winds from late Thursday through Friday. We will also see a cooldown on Friday and Saturday. The NWS seems to be choosing the Euro model more than the GFS in its automated spot forecasts.
Just a heads up, if the GFS is correct, those forecasts are way too warm and we could see below-freezing temperatures by Saturday morning. Also, these troughs are going to lead to severe weather for much of the eastern two-thirds of the United States.
I will be posting on this all week. Thanks for following and supporting the site!