5/26/22 Thursday 8 am
No new news on the fire overnight. Speaking of that, the Emergency Management Coordinator for La Plata County reached out to me and asked me to share this link. This is where you sign up to be contacted in the event of an evacuation. Not a bad idea as it looks like seasonally dry conditions will be present for much of June.
Conditions will work in favor of the firefighters between now and tomorrow afternoon. At that point, the models are showing a period of gusty southwest winds. On Saturday, an approaching cold front will tighten the pressure gradient. This will enhance the winds Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Winds will be out of the southwest for the IHBC on Saturday. Winds will become very gusty by 11 am and will continue throughout the afternoon.
There is still some uncertainty regarding precipitation. If the storm system drops far enough south, rain and snow will be possible on Sunday and Monday. This will mainly affect the northern portions of the forecast area. The snow level would be at or above 10,000 feet. Here is what that looks like from the European model.
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Are we still expecting a decent monsoon season in AZ in July, with some moisture making it up here?
According to the most recent seasonal models, July and August look slightly above historical average for rainfall. June and September look like seasonally average rainfall.