6/13/22 Monday 6:45 am

This morning there is a stationary front to our northwest. Upstream from that, there is a cold front moving through western Montana. Three things happen as that front moves east. One, the front will compress the pressure gradient, increasing the winds over our forecast area by midday today. Two, the coldest air will first move through Montana, heavy snow will develop near Glacier National Park tonight with potentially record-breaking late-season snowfall. In the park, up to two feet of snow is possible at or above 7,000 feet. Three, slightly cooler will filter into Colorado, with pleasant temperatures across the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Here is the latest surface map.

Confidence continues to grow regarding a pattern change by the weekend. I have made a couple of hints about “an early start”. I am not sure that I am ready to go that far, I was not expecting a 3-week early start, but I would welcome it. For now, I can say that confidence is increasing we may see heavy rain of a subtropical origin with a monsoonal signature starting as early as Friday, and lasting as long as Monday. All of the models show the heaviest rain falling from early Sunday through early Monday.

All of the operational models show this pattern change. Here is the Euro’s take beginning Friday, ending at 12 am Tuesday.

The projected totals are very impressive. I internally debated whether or not to post them. If you divide the lowest projected total by 2, and no other rain falls this month (very unlikely) we will finish June with above-average precipitation. If I treat this event like a winter storm, I would likely be posting the projected totals based on the consistency of the models. So what the heck… Here are the totals from least to most.

GFS

Canadian

Euro

Fingers crossed…

My next update will be on Wednesday.Thanks for following and supporting the site!