6/16/22 Thursday 2 pm
This morning, I mentioned that I hoped the trend toward heavy precipitation would continue. Two of the models, the Canadian and the GFS, are very consistent with their earlier runs. The Euro and the German model increased their totals. The German went off the rails with tropical depression equivalent totals. I am certain it will calm down in the next 24 hours I do not see the possibility of some locations receiving their entire monsoon season totals in 4 days–fun to see though.
There may be some scattered showers beginning early Friday afternoon. I am concerned about convection tomorrow. I will wait to look at CAPE values until tomorrow morning. My concern is that there may be some dry lightning prior to the atmosphere getting saturated enough for the rain to make it to the surface. The good news is the showers will build in throughout the afternoon and according to the models, should be widespread by Friday evening/night.
Some models are showing a brief lull Saturday morning others are not. Hopefully, I will see better guidance on that tomorrow and I will cover it in my afternoon update. I have not seen any discussion yet on flash flooding potential. That is usually a warning that is issued at the last minute, but I would not be surprised to see some watches issued on Saturday morning.
Here are the latest model runs showing the updated forecast totals.
My next update will be Friday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!