Thursday Morning Update WET weekend ahead

6/16/22 Thursday 5:15 am
I am hearing and reading a lot of commentary regarding Pre-Monsoonal Flow for the weekend. It’s a good thing they are not calling it a Pre-Monsoonal System. I am still not completely convinced yet that this is the beginning of THE monsoon. That being said it would not surprise me if we look back on this the first week in July and say “I guess it was the start.” It is very difficult to time the start and easy to correct in retrospect. If that is the case, I will happily admit I was wrong.
Just like winter storms, the closer we get to the event starting the more models come into play. There are always varying solutions. The models that I usually use before a quickly approaching weather event show 1 to 3 plus inches of rain for this event by Tuesday. The biggest difference is not just the totals. It is also the depth (flow strength) of the moisture. Some of the models take the moisture into the Northern San Juans. Other models show the heaviest rain falling from the valleys through the Southern San Juans.
Here are those models’ forecasted totals from the first drop to the last.
Canadian
NOAA/SPC WPC model
GFS
Euro
German–going crazy!
Let’s hope this trend continues.
I will post an afternoon model update after 2 pm today.  Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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