Friday Afternoon Model Update–Saving the Best For Last!

6/17/22 Friday 4:30 pm
The radar is showing scattered showers throughout the higher terrain and across the western portions of the forecast. I expect showers to become more widespread between 6 pm and midnight.
It is encouraging before a widespread precipitation event, to see the models “peak out” for the week. That has been the case with all of the models with the exception of the German model. I was actually relieved to see it pull back because it has been off the rails (too high) the last several runs.
Because we are so close to the event, I was able to include several additional high-resolution models, which handle terrain a little better.
German (morning run)
German (afternoon run)
The German model generates throughout the day than many of the models
Here are some of the high-resolution models that are heavily relied on by the National Weather Service
NAM 3km high-resolution model
This model only extends 60 hours, the precipitation total is through Sunday night.
NOAA’s NDFD 2.5 km high-resolution model
NOAA’s NBM (National Blend Of Models) 2.5 km high-resolution model
These are the highest forecasted totals I have seen for this particular event from these two models.
My next update will be out Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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