6/18/22 Saturday 7:15 am

Right now I have to say right on track to slightly above major model forecasts. This is good because as I have said in the past it takes a while to prime a dry atmosphere. And the expectation has always been that the heaviest precipitation would fall from Saturday afternoon until Sunday night/Monday morning.

We are trending above the forecast from many of the models with the exception of the crazy German model.  Areas near Purgatory are considerably higher than the forecast where 0.50 inches have already fallen in Lakewood Meadows. One of my favorite sites is NW of Hermosa. It is a very well-equipped weather station and I want to visit the site before winter. That station reported 0.41 inches so far.

As soon as I hit enter on my keyboard I got two email reports of 0.40 inches from Durango in town. This is considerably higher than the model forecast from 24 hours ago and very encouraging.

The last interesting thing is that the moisture, so far anyway, is trending towards the Euro solution. It is not yet deep enough to push into the Central and Northern San Juans–we’ll see.

Since the Euro is my best friend right now, let’s put the maps in motion now through Monday morning in 6-hour increments.

Here is the latest forest for precipitation in that time period from just a couple of models.

Euro

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center in-house blended model (the WPC)

As long-term followers know, I believe that each storm has a certain amount of precipitation within it and I am not a big fan of trying to time every drop/flake.

I would love to hear storm totals on Monday morning. If you are tracking totals feel free to send them, but what I really want is event totals on Monday.

My next update will be Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!