Same Story Different Month

 8/8/22 Monday 9:15 am
Although it is not reflected on the models, today looks like a better setup for scattered showers when I look at the surface map. Yesterday, the showers were isolated but were impressive. The biggest storm was in La Plata County west of Durango. It developed west of the Twin Buttes subdivision. It was a very intense storm. Lightning struck 3 nautical miles from my house, the ensuing thunder was so powerful it set off car alarms all over my neighborhood. Over 1.50 inches of rain fell on Twin Buttes. It was a slow mover and nearly rained out there. A few leftovers made it into Durango and points east where 0.30 to .070 inches fell. Not a single drop fell at my house.
CAPE values will peak between 2 pm and 5 pm this afternoon. That is when there will be the most energy for thunderstorm development. Any storms that do develop will be slow movers again today. They will be capable of producing flash flooding conditions. As always, we don’t know where they are going to set up, if at all.
I went back and looked at the last couple of months. Each month there has been a considerable lull in the monsoonal flow. Here are some graphs from the weather station in my neighborhood.
Notice the large lulls in June and July. There is a lot of August left, so don’t worry that the monsoon is over.
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