9/20/22 Tuesday 8:15 am

It is transition Tuesday. Everything is on track and a significant change to the dry weather is on the way. The biggest change in the models over the last 24 hours has been timing. The precipitation for the most part will not get underway until late in the day or this evening.

Aside from the timing, the models have been very consistent in showing excessive rainfall for the entire forecast area over the next 72 hours. Let’s just jump right into all of the model runs. My confidence is pretty high in the forecasted totals.

NOAA blended NBM

NOAA blended WPC

European

This looks a little off to me with the focus over Cortez and the far southern portions of the forecast area, we’ll see.

Canadian

GFS

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is all over this event. Here are the excessive rainfall outlooks for the next 72 hours.

Now through Wednesday at 6 am–remember it should not really get started until late today/evening.

Wednesday 6 am through Thursday 6 am

The red is very significant. It means that any area under the red shading has a 40% chance of flash flooding.  I do not remember ever seeing red for our forecast area since I have been doing this. The yellow indicates a 15% chance of flash flooding, which is still a significant number when it is as widespread as they are showing.

Thursday 6 am through Friday 6 am.

I will do a quick model update this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!