Pattern Change Begins Later Today–Winter Arrives In The Mountains

9/30/22 Friday 6:30 am
Although yesterday was the first day I mentioned the pattern change it is something I have been monitoring for a while. It is not at all unusual for this time of year, and something I look forward to. What would be unusual is if conditions stayed unsettled all fall. Normally, we flip back to dry conditions for a while so everyone can worry about the ski season.
More isolated showers this afternoon, then later today and tonight a cold front will be approaching the area. This could lead to widespread showers across the forecast area this weekend. Tonight, as colder air filters into the forecast area snow levels should drop to around 10,000 feet.
Saturday will see a better chance of rain showers across the mid-elevation areas, with a wintry mix above 9,500 feet and all snow at or above 11,000. Saturday night could get interesting with snow levels dropping possibly to the 9,000-foot level. Rain showers should develop across even the lower southern elevation areas by Sunday afternoon.
Here are the maps in motion from the Euro beginning tonight and ending on Monday at 6 am.
The models are not in agreement regarding next week yet. The Euro sees this cool wet pattern continuing throughout the week. The other models waited to jump on board with this pattern change. I would not be surprised to see them join the Euro on its prediction that the unsettled weather continues throughout the week.
Here is what the Euro is forecasting for precipitation over the next 10 days.
Here is the snow before melting, and it will, based on the liquid forecast above.
And here is the same from the slightly less-bullish GFS
Snow before melting
I am not worried at this time about a low elevation freeze, but I am monitoring the situation and will let everyone know before it happens.
I may or may not post again this afternoon, but I will early on Saturday.
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