10/16/22 Sunday 7:15 am

First of all, thanks to those who have already participated in this year’s contest. On Friday and Saturday, I announced the details of my latest contest. This year’s contest is both larger and shorter than 2021 and 2020. People are busy this time of year, and my web traffic is always down until the first major snow. So far, the contest details have only been viewed a little over 500 times. Given the fact that I have over 16,000 followers, I am going to continue to provide links to it in my updates. 2022 Contest Overview–The Largest Ever

In the past, I mentioned a couple of dates I was keeping my eyes on. The first was today and tomorrow. The time has arrived and for the last couple of days, I have said that this is not going to be the pattern change that the models were advertising a couple of weeks ago.

The closed low that had been anchored over southern California is moving east. Clouds have moved over the forecast area, resulting in weak radiational cooling overnight. Temperatures throughout SW Colorado are 10-15 degrees warmer this morning than they were 24 hours ago. Even Silverton is sitting at a balmy 28 degrees after hitting a frosty 15 degrees Saturday morning!

This temporary pattern disruption, as I referred to it yesterday, will be history by late Monday. A few folks in the southern portions of the forecast area (generally south of 160) will get a little rain. The best chances for more meaningful precipitation will fall over New Mexico. On Tuesday, a high-pressure ridge will pop up over us and much of the western US where it will remain throughout the week–boring…

The next date I talked about was around October 23rd. There should be a good chance for a combination of southwest moisture and a cold front dropping down from the northwest. It is the setup for what we usually experience for the first major snowstorm of the year to affect the mountains and mid-elevation areas.

This one looks great on paper, all of the elements that we need are going to be present. That being said, the track has to be perfect for things to line up just right. The ingredients must arrive at the proper times as well. There is so much that can go wrong, so I am not getting my hopes up just yet. For the most part, the consistency among the models has been good. It is something I will be analyzing all week, so stay tuned.

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