Pattern Change Coming

10/18/22 Tuesday 7:45 am
With each passing day, my confidence continues to grow that we will see a major change in the weather this weekend. Until then dry weather, cool nights, and warm days. We may see the pressure gradient compress on Friday and Saturday in response to the approaching trough. This would lead to some windy conditions.
The biggest changes in the model runs have been timing and snow levels. This may continue. For now, it looks like cold, wet, and stormy conditions will arrive on Sunday. The Sunday night model runs were showing lower snow levels because of an earlier arrival of the cold air. Monday’s overnight model runs show the main body of the storm arriving during the day on Sunday. That can make a difference.
Regardless of the time the storm arrives, I do expect snow levels down to 8,000 feet and possibly lower. If you have major travel plans that involve driving over passes on Sunday, expect double-digit snow totals by the end of the first storm. It does not look like we are going to bounce right back after this storm. It looks like the cool, wet pattern will continue. The models are already trying to figure out when the Sunday storm will end and when the second storm will arrive.
Until they figure that out, I am going to concentrate on the totals from the first storm only. However, when I finish this post I will start working on the extended outlook. You are going to want to see it!
Here the latest model runs showing the liquid and frozen precipitation totals for the first storm. Some of the snow forecasts are not available on some of the models because they use a complicated probabilistic scheme involving percentiles. In that case, I am just posting the liquid totals.
NOAA National Model Blend (liquid)
Liquid (likely way overdone)
WPC model (liquid)
European snow before any melting
I am going to take a break, then work on the extended outlook. It should be out around 9:30 am at the latest.
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