Monday Mid-Morning Update

10/24/22 Monday 10:30 am
Sorry for the later post this morning. I have been trying to reach out and get some good data on the mountain snow, but it is apparently a little too early in the season for that.
The models did not perform too horribly on liquid precip in the lower elevations. Most locations reported 0.30-0.60 inches of precipitation. There were a couple of anomalously lower and higher reports that ranged from 0.10 to 1.50 inches. At this point, I am not too sure about the higher elevations. Up until about an hour ago, it was still snowing on the Mountain Lodge Cam at Mountain Village.
Snow fell a little short of my expectations. The models were too fast with the frontal passage and more importantly, with the pool of cold air–which is still not fully in place. I am not sure that the early temperature forecasts for overnight lows Tuesday morning will verify, but I do expect it to be a couple of degrees colder than we experienced this morning.
At the moment it appears that the next storm will pass further to our north. Snow showers will break out across the northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. The snow will become more widespread and drop further south Wednesday into Thursday.
I do not expect significant accumulations at this time, but it may become a bit of a nuisance event for the 550 passes on Thursday. Depending on which model I look at, 2 to 6 inches of snow will be possible from Telluride to Red Mountain and Camp Bird.
After that, we should go into a drier period with temperatures closer to normal or just slightly below. This will be short-lived, however, it looks like another storm will be on tap for the middle of next week, we’ll see.
I will talk more about that in the Tuesday morning Extended Outlook.
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