Wednesday Afternoon Update–Low Confidence With Forecast

12/7/22 Wednesday 3:30 pm

We have a tendency to give up too early on storms. I do, you do, most forecasters do. The advantage would be to have a huge area to concentrate on, that way if one area does not work out maybe another does. The area I concentrate on is very limited. I do my best with the resources currently available, but things can change very quickly.

The modeling early today and up to that point was showing the frontal boundary responsible for the snow at Purgatory and Wolf Creek stalling, then moving back north today. I expected this lull and expected it to drop south before the frontal passage from the west as the models indicated for the last several days.

At the moment, the models have flipped and are keeping the boundary further north longer. IF they are correct this time it will limit the additional snow accumulations, everywhere. We will have to wait and see.

As I have said many times, you never know. One of the winters I thought this year would mirror was 2008-2009. In December 2008, coincidentally, on December 7th and 8th, a storm was coming through Durango and I was living in town at the time. There were not a lot of weather model resources back then and I had what would be considered primitive resolution model access.

I had been a weather hobbyist for 9 years at that point. I had just moved from Denver and was surprised at the lack of coverage of weather in SW Colorado. The NWS forecast was predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow in Durango downtown. I lived in Skyridge and we got 15 inches. At that moment I was hooked and I started studying everything I could about the area. I formally launched DurangoSnowLovers on Facebook in 2012 and the rest is history. It never gets any easier, and we still don’t have good coverage or a radar.

My next update will be Thursday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site! I still have people asking me about the contest, it will end whenever I wake up on Friday morning.

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