Sunday Morning–A Happy Holiday Update

12/25/22 Sunday 7:15 am

I come bearing gifts. The gifts are multiple storms to ring in the New Year and wring out some needed moisture over the entire forecast area. Patterns don’t last forever. Our patience in dealing with this dry pattern in December so far is about to pay off. Big changes are on the way.

I have looked at every major model for the last several days. I have looked at multiple model runs. I have looked at the blended models, deterministic models, and ensembles (multi-model guidance). They all point towards this significant pattern change.

Warm air will accompany the initial shot of moisture, it is too early to talk about rain versus snow levels. I expect there to be more snow than rain even in the low elevations.

Let’s start off by putting the maps in motion beginning Tuesday afternoon. For now, I will share the Euro model because it is the most conservative with its precipitation projections.

You will see that these systems will be coming through every couple of days. This model only projects out 10 days. This is through January 4th.

Regional view

State view

As I mentioned earlier the Euro depicts the lowest precipitation totals. These maps show liquid equivalent total precipitation in inches through January 4th.

Canadian model


NOAA’s High-resolution National Blend of Models (NBM)–This particular model is showing the potential for 3 to 7 feet of snow in the mountains!

Obviously, there is going to be a lot to talk about this week. Travel will likely be disrupted on Wednesday-Thursday. That will just be the first wave. Several additional systems will hit as soon as the weekend. I am less confident about the timing beyond Thursday. Stay tuned, we wanted winter, and it’s coming!

Next update Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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