12/31/22 Saturday 3:30 pm
Had another power outage this morning, things could get really interesting the next couple of days if they had that much trouble with the 4 inches that fell in most areas overnight…
For areas below 8,000 feet, the jury is still out. It’s going to be all about the temperatures and when the heavy precipitation starts. Although light snow may redevelop overnight, the big push will come later on Sunday.
There is no doubt the leading edge of moisture arrived early this morning. Nothing like a little light snow mist to get your day going! As I mentioned, light snow may redevelop tonight into tomorrow morning, but I do not expect the bigger push to start until after 2 pm on Sunday.
Fortunately, that gives me a few more model cycles to figure out the lower and mid-elevation forecasts. At this point, I would love to see the storm slow down a little more and come arrive Sunday evening. This is entirely possible. It appears at this moment that the heaviest snow will fall Sunday evening through Monday late morning. Some models are showing left-overs occurring throughout the entire forecast area through Tuesday night. The snow will start out wet and heavy, but will transition to fluffier snow as the cold air arrives.
By the time the snow stops completely late Tuesday or Wednesday I expect the following additional totals in the higher elevations:
Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Cola Bank Pass: 24 to 30 inches
Telluride, Silverton, Rico, Molas, and Red Mountain Passes: 16-20 inches
I will post my snowfall forecasts for other areas on Sunday, until then here are some model runs to check out. These are total snowfall in inches before melting and compaction.
NBM 6 hours earlier
Interesting fluctuations in the high-resolution models. I have gotten several emails from app watchers remarking about how their forecasts keep changing. There is your explanation.
While I was typing that, the NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the lower elevations:
COZ021>023-011400- /O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0030.230102T0100Z-230102T1900Z/ FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS 151 PM MST SAT DEC 31 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MST MONDAY... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. * WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN. * WHEN...FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MST MONDAY. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
No changes for the higher elevations.
Their discussion is not out yet, but I suspect they wanted to post something, and this is a start. If colder temperatures verify or the storm comes in a little later and stronger, they will easily be able to upgrade the advisory to a warning.
I plan to check in tomorrow morning, but I may not post my forecasts until later in the day. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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