1/1/23 3:50 pm
The system to our west appears to be strengthening as evidenced by the surface map below.
You can see the main trough and low pressure has taken a negative tilt just north of Las Vegas. There is a secondary low developing and undergoing cyclogenesis in Central Utah. Both factors indicate the storm is strengthening.
Earlier today in my forecast, I mentioned that my gut was telling me that my totals in the lower elevations were too low. I still believe that. Interestingly enough, shortly after I released my forecast after seeing the updated model runs, the NWS increased the total snow amounts in the lower elevations.
COZ021>023-021200- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0030.230102T0100Z-230102T1900Z/ FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS 116 PM MST SUN JAN 1 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST MONDAY... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. * WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN. * WHEN...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST MONDAY. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
They just released their discussion and apparently they were considering bumping the advisory up to a warning, but will hold off until later this evening if needed.
Just a reminder, Wolf Creek will be closed again tomorrow morning. If things go the way I expect, that will probably not be the only closure we will have in the short term.
― WINTER MAINTENANCE ALERT ―
US 160 Wolf Creek Pass to be closed for at least two hours on Monday
CDOT will perform winter maintenance operations on US 160 Wolf Creek Pass tomorrow, Mon., Jan. 2. Crews will close the highway and begin work at 5:30 a.m. Westbound traffic will be stopped just west of the ski area near the pass summit (MP 167) and eastbound traffic will be stopped near Treasure Falls (MP 157).
Travelers can expect a lengthy delay of two hours or more. However, please be aware this delay may be extended should unusual circumstances arise. Regional travelers should plan ahead, allow for extra travel time, or arrive at the closure points before 5:30 a.m.
My next update will be Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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