2/26/23 Sunday 8:30 am
There are currently Winter Weather Advisories From Purgatory to Red Mountain as well as Wolf Creek. This seems like a “Better safe than sorry” type of advisory. 4-8 inches does not technically reach advisory-level criteria for the higher elevations.
COZ019-261745- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0016.230226T1600Z-230227T0100Z/ SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS 231 AM MST SUN FEB 26 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. * WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. * WHEN...FROM 9 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
Nor does 3-8 inches…
COZ068-261500-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0013.230226T1600Z-230227T0100Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
1153 PM MST SAT FEB 25 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM
MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHWEST AND
WEST FACING SLOPES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN...FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT AND DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY UNDER SNOW SQUALLS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING.
I am not sure we will hit that 8-inch mark, but the best chance of that happening will be Wolf Creek Pass. I think 4-6 is a little more realistic expectation for inhabited higher elevations, we will see.
For everyone else, I expect 1-3 inches in the mid-elevations, with a dusting to 2 inches in the lower elevations. 2-4 inches may be possible on Hesperus Hill, mid-elevations north of Rockwood, as well as Vallecito and Lemon.
Those of you who have followed me for a while have heard me refer to these as “was that it?” storms. They start light, they have a dramatic frontal passage then everything tapers off and it is pretty much done. I don’t see a lot of leftovers with this storm. Here is the latest surface map showing the storm just to our west.
Here is a shot of downtown Flagstaff at 7:30 am.
It has been snowing overnight there, they are expecting 5 to 9 inches by the time they are done. I saw Snowbowl picked up 7 inches so far as of earlier this morning.
Monday will be an in-between day, there may be a few light scattered snow showers in the higher elevations but things should be quiet in most areas as the trough digs in across the west.
The snow should return late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, the snow will be scattered in the lower elevations throughout the day on Tuesday. Wednesday will be the heaviest snow day. It may not stop between 2 am Tuesday and Thursday morning in the higher elevations.
The precipitation totals vary quite a bit from the Euro to the GFS, the Canadian is in between the two. These are liquid precipitation totals are Tuesday through Thursday.
Here is the Euro, I have to say I am a little skeptical after its performances this year in the higher and mid-elevations (it is probably too low).
The Canadian may be a little closer, but I am not a big fan of the way it is spreading the precipitation across the area.
Here is the GFS. The GFS has done pretty well lately, so I can’t brush it aside.
The models have a ways to go, I think we will see better agreement over the next 36 hours.
There is some disagreement about what happens after Thursday, I think we will see leftovers on Friday. After Friday it looks like we will be able to clean up over the weekend before the snow returns the following Monday (March 6th). This could change between now and then so stay tuned.
Snowpack Update
I prefer to use the USDA tables put out rather than all of the graphs out there that people send me. If you prefer to use your graphs stick with them, but this is the easiest way for me to show my followers where we are at.
From left to right is location; elevation; current Snow-Water Equivalent in liquid inches; the normal average for this date in liquid inches; the normal average for the entire season for this particular location in liquid inches; the date that this location achieves its seasonal average. The last two columns on the right are the percentage of the average for the current date and the percentage of the seasonal peak average for the entire season.
So, for example, from this table you can derive the following:
Wolf Creek Summit@10,957′ elevation is showing 31.6 liquid inches of precipitation. Normally on this date, the site has 23.1 liquid inches. The seasonal average for this sight is 35.5 inches and it reaches that peak on April 29th. For this date, Wolf Creek Summit is at 137% of the average and is at 89% of the seasonal peak average
On the bottom, it shows the average percentage of all locations in these basins for this day (143%) and for the seasonal peak 106%. Great news!
My next update will be Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!