Monday Afternoon Update–The Models Are Taking A More Aggressive Storm Track!

2/27/23 Monday 3:15 pm

How does another 10-14 inches in Durango sound to you? How about 15 to 30 inches in the mid-elevation areas? How about 20-36 inches for the higher elevations? If the current model runs verify, that is what we will be looking at for Tuesday through Thursday.

Yes, the models kicked things up a notch with their latest runs, I will feel a little more confident tomorrow with the forecast after another model cycle or two. The heaviest snow is still going to fall on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.

I will be doing an early update Tuesday morning. I have another procedure that may or may not keep me away from the computer Tuesday afternoon. This should be the last one for a while.

Other than the higher precipitation totals very little has changed, light, to at times moderate snow, in the higher elevations on Tuesday, with just scattered to isolated light snow in the lower and mid-elevations. There may be a bit of a lull late Tuesday, but heavy snow will develop Wednesday, if the storm follows the track of the current model runs, heavy snow will continue through most of the day on Thursday.

Here are the latest model runs showing the total liquid precipitation for the entire event. I am not going to piece this out on a day-by-day basis. The models are always more accurate with their event totals than they are day-to-day.

I thought it would be interesting to compare last week’s pre-storm model event totals versus this week’s pre-storm model event forecast totals. The models consistently under forecast the totals in the higher and most middle-elevation. areas.

Euro last week Wolf Creek forecast was about 18 inches, they got 45 inches.