Monday Morning Update

2/27/23 Monday 7 am

Yesterday’s nuisance storm earned its title. You never really know what you are going to get with those. The low pressure jumped right over us into SE Colorado and started redeveloping. That will not be the case over the next few days.

Another big storm is headed our way with several embedded waves. Snow will develop late tonight into the early morning hours mainly over the northern portions of the forecast area and higher elevations. The snow will sag south throughout the day tomorrow and I expect very little if any accumulation in the lower elevations.

Light to moderate snow will continue into the early evening Tuesday and may become more isolated before a heavier wave comes in on Wednesday. Wednesday will be a difficult day to travel with heavy snow throughout the entire forecast area. A third wave will come through on Thursday, the exact track of that has not yet been decided. It should track slightly south of our area. However, some of the runs have been trending slightly north which would put the additional heavy accumulations right across the southern portions of the forecast area Thursday morning.

The Euro and Canadian models are not showing that, but the latest run of the GFS does show that happening. Here are the latest model runs showing the total liquid precipitation for the event. This is from Tuesday morning until late Thursday.






That would be a hell of a mess for Farmington/Aztec Bloomfield!

I am not a fan of using the snow output parameter from these models because the snow-to-liquid ratio is fixed at 10-1. This means the snow totals are usually higher than what appears in this graphic, but for simplicity’s sake. Here are the projected 10-1 snow totals.

For now, the exact track is still up for debate, but I wanted to give an early heads-up to anyone traveling through New Mexico Wednesday and/or Thursday. I expect we will see a number of Advisories and Warnings being issued within the next 24 hours for the entire forecast area.

My next update will be Monday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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