2/28/23 Monday 6 pm
Today was mostly as I expected, with little to no accumulations throughout most of the forecast area, and 4 to 7 inches across some of the mid and high-elevation areas.
The Wording in the Winter Storm Warnings has been changed slightly and Telluride has been added to the Winter Weather Advisory mix. This was necessary and I am glad they did it. Here are the updated winter weather products.
COZ018-020-010600- /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0018.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/ NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, GATEWAY, AND NUCLA 141 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW 7000 FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. * WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER. * WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
COZ021-022-010600- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0004.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0007.230301T0600Z-230302T1800Z/ FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO 141 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. * WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER AND ANIMAS RIVER BASIN. * WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.
COZ021-022-010600- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0004.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0007.230301T0600Z-230302T1800Z/ FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO 141 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. * WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER AND ANIMAS RIVER BASIN. * WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.
COZ023-010600- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0004.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0007.230301T0600Z-230302T1800Z/ SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF PAGOSA SPRINGS 141 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. * WHERE...SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN. * WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.
COZ019-UTZ028-010600- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0004.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0007.230301T0600Z-230302T1800Z/ SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, HESPERUS, AND MONTICELLO 141 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. * WHERE...IN COLORADO, SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. IN UTAH, LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS. * WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
248 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2023
COZ068-010600-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0007.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
248 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
FEET, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH
ICY AND SNOWPACKED ROADS EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.
The Event Total Snowfall map is showing additional snowfall from 5 pm today ending 5 pm Thursday. The only major change was an increase at Wolf Creek to the 30-36 inch range.
To further complicate the forecast, some of the later model runs today have come in slightly lower than their previous runs, but as I was saying earlier, the models usually under forecast the snow amounts in the higher elevations.
I am going to lean a little more conservative with my forecast because I am still not as sharp as tack this evening after my procedure this morning.
Here goes.
Wolf Creek 28 to 36 inches
Purgatory 22 to 26 inches
North Vallecito, North Lemon (Wilderness) Mayday, Silver Creek Ranch 18-24 inches
Silverton, Upper Durango Hills, Upper Forest Lakes, Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill, Tween, Los Ranchitos 16-22 inches.
DW1&2, Edgemont, Tecolote, Forest Lakes (lower) CR 125, Shenandoah Highlands, Long Hollow, 14-20 inches, King Mountain, Lake Durango 14-20 inches.
Rafter J, Shenandoah, Trappers, Deer Valley Estates , Pagosa Springs 12-16 inches
Durango, Gem Village, Bayfield, Ignacio 8-14 inches
Cortez to Mancos proper 5 to 9 inches.
Aztec 3-6 inches
I will check in tomorrow, but I don’t expect any changes to my forecasts unless there is a major development for Wednesday into Thursday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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