Tuesday Morning Update

2/28/23 Tuesday 7 am

Today is the last day of Meteorological Winter, but that does not matter this year. The first day of Meteorological Spring is tomorrow and we are going to be getting heavy snow. I don’t think that winter is going to end anytime soon. When I look at the long-term extended forecast out through April 13th, I see above-average precipitation and well below-average temperatures. This increases my confidence that the SW San Juans and Purgatory may be taking a run at the 2018-2019 winter season snow totals. Many of our rivers were running at or near the flood stages in 2019.

The last couple of GFS model runs have shown a little more restraint while the latest full run from the European model has ticked up slightly. I am anxious to see what happens in the next model cycle. Other than that, nothing has changed.

The NWS released the initial Winter Storm Watches. Noticeably absent so far is the Telluride area, I would expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued there before the storm really kicks in.

  
COZ022-023-281800-  
/O.EXA.KGJT.WS.A.0004.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/  
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,   
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS  
138 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10  
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.   
  WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.  
  
* WHEN...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY   
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY   
  ON RIDGE TOPS.   
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

  
  
COZ021-UTZ022-029-281800-  
/O.EXA.KGJT.WS.A.0004.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/  
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-SOUTHEAST UTAH-  
CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, BLANDING,   
AND DEAD HORSE POINT STATE PARK  
138 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 5500 FEET...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW  
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...IN COLORADO, FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER. IN   
  UTAH, SOUTHEAST UTAH AND CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES.  
  
* WHEN...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY   
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY   
  ON RIDGE TOPS.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

  
  
COZ019-UTZ028-281800-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0004.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, HESPERUS, AND MONTICELLO  
138 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20  
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST 45  
  TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.  
  
* WHERE...IN COLORADO, SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. IN UTAH, LA   
  SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. WIDESPREAD BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON   
  RIDGE TOPS.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
349 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2023  
  
COZ068-281900-  
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0005.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/  
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0007.230301T0600Z-230302T1200Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-WOLF CREEK PASS  
349 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM  
MST THURSDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 24  
  INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST    
  FACING SLOPES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. SNOW AND  
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH ICY AND  
  SNOWPACKED ROADS EXPECTED.   
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN  
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

I find the wording ion these Watches interesting when you compare it to NWS Grand Junction’s own Event Total Snowfall map. For example, the Winter Storm Watch indicates 5-10 inches for Durango, Bayfield, and Pagosa, but their map shows those locations in the 12-18 inch category. The initial wording also has the Warning ending late Wednesday night, while the map is showing the snowfall through 5 pm Thursday. Perhaps this means we will some slight changes to the final Winter Storm Warnings this afternoon.

Either way, here are the latest model runs showing the total liquid precipitation for the event.

GFS–As I said the totals are down slightly, but I don’t expect the SW flow to be weak enough that Vallecito will get more snow than Purgatory. Interestingly enough, all 3 models show that.