3/5/23 Sunday 8 am
When one looks back over the last 10 months as a whole, one thing, in particular, stands out. The majority of those months had something in common. Roughly, half of the month was wet and active, and half of the month was dry and boring. I believe that was the case for 8 of the 10 months. During those 2 other months, there was still a dry and a wet period, one just lasted longer than the other. The net result was an extended period of above-average precipitation since last May.
So it should not be surprising that we are right back at it here in March. With the exception of a few weak systems, I do not expect any meaningful precipitation until the middle of the month. It had been looking like we would get a weak system through the area by the middle of the week. A few flakes in the northern portions of the forecast area would not surprise me. But most of the action has been to the north and will likely stay that way.
I have also noticed over the last 10 months that the daily deterministic model runs are not very good at forecasting these pattern changes from wet to dry and back to wet. It was for that very reason late last spring I started relying more on the long-term extended models. They did a very good job on the overall temperature and precipitation outlooks for periods of 4 to 6 weeks in the future. Using those models I was able to predict the above-average monsoon season that we all enjoyed.
So I will jump right in with the Euro extended model. The latest run was released on Friday. The next will be out Tuesday, for all I know, the next model run could flip on Tuesday. However, while I don’t usually post these model runs, I do look at them and I can tell you that they have been pretty accurate. The only error with them is they have a warm and dry bias. This means the actual conditions usually verify colder and wetter than predicted.
These model runs do not show the precipitation totals and low or high temperatures. They show the number of degrees above or below average in Fahrenheit, and the amount of precipitation in inches below or above average for a specific period of time.
Precipitation anomaly through March 10th (below).
Precipitation anomaly from March 10th to March 17th (above).
Precipitation anomaly from March 17 to March 24th (above)
Precipitation anomaly from March 24 to March 31 st
Total precipitation anomaly through April 4th (above)
Total precipitation anomaly through April 13th (above)
Temperatures anomalies through April 2nd (below)
Temperature anomalies through April 13th (below)
In conclusion, a short-term period of dry weather with average to slightly below average temperatures, followed by above-average snow and below-average cold temperatures.
The next extended model run will be out on Tuesday, I will post again then.
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