3/14/23 Tuesday 7:40 am
A repeat performance is likely on the way. More storm systems are stacking up for the last half of March. Purgatory will exceed the 2018-2019 season snowfall within 7-10 days. I think Wolf Creek has a 75% chance of meeting or exceeding their 2018-2019 season.
This storm is going to start warm with accumulating snow levels at or above 8,200 feet but will drop to 7,000 feet or lower late Wednesday night into Thursday. Winter is very far from over!
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories begin at midnight and last through 6 pm Thursday. As I mentioned yesterday, I do expect travel delays and closures again with this storm, prepare accordingly.
COZ017-019-142130-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0006.230315T0000Z-230317T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0009.230315T0600Z-230317T0000Z/
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, SILVERTON, RICO,
AND HESPERUS
323 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
MDT THURSDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE...UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS.
COZ018-142130-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0006.230315T0000Z-230317T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0022.230315T0600Z-230317T0000Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
323 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM MDT THURSDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023
COZ068-141800-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0008.230315T1200Z-230317T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0009.230315T0600Z-230317T0600Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
349 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 24
INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. BLOWING
SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY
Here are the latest model runs. I believe this run from the GFS is anomalously low for the northern portions of the forecast area. The model has been very consistent up until the last 12 hours, I think it will flip back on its next run.
GFS
Euro
Canadian
German
NOAA’s high-resolution blended WPC model
I will post my forecast this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!