Tuesday Morning Update–Winter Storm Warnings And Advisories Issued

3/14/23 Tuesday 7:40 am

A repeat performance is likely on the way. More storm systems are stacking up for the last half of March. Purgatory will exceed the 2018-2019 season snowfall within 7-10 days. I think Wolf Creek has a 75% chance of meeting or exceeding their 2018-2019 season.

This storm is going to start warm with accumulating snow levels at or above 8,200 feet but will drop to 7,000 feet or lower late Wednesday night into Thursday. Winter is very far from over!

Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories begin at midnight and last through 6 pm Thursday. As I mentioned yesterday, I do expect travel delays and closures again with this storm, prepare accordingly.

COZ017-019-142130-  
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0006.230315T0000Z-230317T0000Z/  
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0009.230315T0600Z-230317T0000Z/  
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, SILVERTON, RICO,   
AND HESPERUS  
323 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM  
MDT THURSDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20  
  INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH   
  AS 45 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST   
  SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW  
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS.

COZ018-142130-  
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0006.230315T0000Z-230317T0000Z/  
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0022.230315T0600Z-230317T0000Z/  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY  
323 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO  
6 PM MDT THURSDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES  
  WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW  
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
349 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023  
  
COZ068-141800-  
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0008.230315T1200Z-230317T1200Z/  
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0009.230315T0600Z-230317T0600Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-  
349 AM MDT TUE MAR 14 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO  
MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 24  
  INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. BLOWING  
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW  
  WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.   
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN  
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY

Here are the latest model runs. I believe this run from the GFS is anomalously low for the northern portions of the forecast area. The model has been very consistent up until the last 12 hours, I think it will flip back on its next run.

GFS