El Nino And Next Winter

6/4/23 Sunday 8:50 am

Yesterday mostly light showers fell in isolated areas throughout the forecast area. One stronger storm developed around CR 502 SW of Vallecito, overall it was pretty short-lived.

More showers will develop today, once again, flip a coin to determine where they will set up, the best guess would be wherever the residual moisture is left over from yesterday.

On Monday, conditions will be a little more favorable for scattered showers. Tuesday and Wednesday still look like the best days for widespread showers throughout the forecast area.

I am starting to get questions about the coming El Nino event. Most people have at least a limited understanding of what El Nino is, but less of an understanding of what its effects are. Not all El Ninos are the same. Traditionally El Nino is characterized by anomalous warming of the ocean in the equatorial region of the Pacific off the coast of South America.

This year a number of scientists I follow and rely upon are forecasting an El Nino Modoki event (rhymes with Okey-dokey). If that happens, a cold snowy winter is usually the result for much of the United States. Our last “good” El Nino Modoki was 2009-2010. Another notable Modoki event was 1972-1973, I realize very few people will remember that season but those who do will understand the significance.

Here is what the warming looks like during a typical El Nino event.

Here is what the warming looks like during an  El Nino Modoki event.

Winter is still a ways off, but at the moment I am expecting an (ENM) El Nino Modoki to develop resulting in above-average snowfall for the mountains and mid-elevations with a well-above-average snowfall in the lower elevations and below-average temperatures for the entire forecast area.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Leave a Reply