Friday Morning Update–This Weekend And The Extended Outlook

6/16/23 Friday 7 am

I don’t have good news for those of you with outdoor events to attend today and Saturday. Today there is a better chance of showers and storms developing than we have seen the last couple of days. Tomorrow may see an early start to showers and thunderstorms and it may clear out earlier than it will today. The best chance for heavy widespread showers will be on Saturday from 10-3 pm.

For those attending Telluride Bluegrass Festival, bring layers. On Saturday temperatures at the festival could struggle to get out of the 40s. That will also be the case in many other areas above 9,000 feet. The snow level may flirt with 11,000 feet, and high-elevation campers should be ready for below-freezing temperatures by Sunday morning.

For the rest of us in the mid and lower-elevation areas, showers will become widespread today, they should stick around during the afternoon. On Saturday showers could start pretty early (10 am or earlier) but they could dissipate by mid-afternoon (before 3 pm). That is what I am seeing right now, I will be watching the models as they update and post accordingly, I know this is a busy weekend for many.

Sunday will be a transition day with just a slight chance of high-elevation showers mostly along the divide. Beginning on Monday, the models are all still advertising an extended period of dry weather. It’s too early yet to tell how long that will last.

The long-term extended model runs are mixed. The European is the warmest and driest model (always is, probably always will be), it shows well below-normal precipitation from 6/19 through July 20th. Interestingly enough, the GFS extended model shows just slightly below-average precipitation for the same time period. The Canadian shows average precipitation over the same period. I hope the Euro is wrong.

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