Warm And Dry Fall–Cold And Snowy Winter


9/19/23 Tuesday 8 am

For today, expect a slight chance of showers developing this afternoon. Drier air is working into the area and will continue to erode rain chances across the forecast area. Warmer and drier conditions can be expected most of Wednesday, which means we could get some gusty winds.

Wednesday night into Thursday the models are struggling with the placement of a passing low-pressure system. There is a chance that showers could develop and maybe even some snow showers down to the 10,000 foot level. At least that is what some of the models have been hinting at. We’ll see what those models say about that Wednesday afternoon.

Drier air should work its way back into the area by Thursday, this could begin an extended period of slightly above average temps and dry weather for a while. This is exactly what I expect this fall, warm and dry overall. We may see a couple of appearances from the jet but overall, above average temperatures and below average precipitation. If you like it, enjoy it. Winter will be very different.

As I have said several times, I expect El Nino to be in charge for fall then the warm waters of El Nino will transition into a Modoki and the bulk of the heat will move further west into the Central Pacific. This will result in a winter that gets underway in January and lasts through April or May. We have had similar winters in 09-10 and 18-19. Imagine last winter with colder temperatures and more snow in the lower elevations, and does not end in March.

I first talked about this in May and I am going to continue to talk about it through this warm and dry fall until winter takes hold, likely after Christmas. My message as we get into November and December will be DON’T PANIC. For my out-of-town followers keep this in mind when planning your vacations to SW Colorado.

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