Sunday Update-Scenarios for Next Weekend

11/12/23 Sunday 7 am

The models still do not have a clear picture of the weather for next weekend. The European and Canadian are depicting a couple of similar scenarios. All models agree on a trough of low pressure dropping south along the west coast. What happens next is where the disagreements begin.

The GFS model sends a piece out Thursday that affects the northern and central mountains. The Canadian and European hold off until Friday, they show a deeper progression. The Euro clips the northern portions of our forecast area with a little snow, the Canadian drops the disturbance further south with precipitation just north of Durango.

From Saturday on, the GFS changes with nearly every run. The European and Canadian show a reinforcing wave come into our area on Saturday enhancing the precipitation. The Euro shows on and off precipitation again on Sunday with another reinforcing shot of precipitation coming in late Sunday. The Canadian shows a decent storm affecting all elevations with snow Saturday through Monday.

At this point, it is too early to tell which, if any, model will be correct. I will be posting more frequently this week and hope to see a better model consensus by mid-week. For now, it is something to be aware of for those who have travel plans. Speaking of traveling, some of the longer-term models are indicating we may be in for another stormy period from roughly 11/23-11/26.

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