Friday Afternoon Update

11/17/23 Friday  3:45 pm

The new model runs did not have all of the answers I hoped. The blended model continues to show half of the total precipitation falling by Saturday evening. The German model shows over half of the total precipitation falling by Saturday evening.

The Canadian and European models are trending towards “some” precipitation falling by Saturday evening with the majority falling overnight and during the day Sunday, Sunday night, and early Monday.

The other change is that the models are trending towards lower snow levels. On Saturday, snow levels should hover around 9,000′, dropping to 8,000′ by late afternoon/early evening. Depending on how early the front arrives on Sunday, snow levels could drop to 7,000′ or lower by early Monday morning! I am monitoring this and will post frequently about this over the weekend. It could be the first dusting of snow for the lower elevations this year!

As far as snowfall totals go, a few inches will be possible Sunday into Monday in that Northern Triangle area I mentioned yesterday (Telluride, Ouray, Red Mountain). There may be enough to warrant a weak Winter Weather Advisory to be issued on Sunday. Lower totals will fall in the Southwest San Juans, likely 2-5 inches before melting, by Monday.

And now for a bold prediction: Today’s high temperature will be the highest temperature we see until next spring.

I will follow up on this tomorrow.

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