11/18/23 Saturday 4 pm
OKAY. First things first. I had been hinting we would probably see a low-end Winter Weather Advisory issued beginning Sunday morning. We did get that this afternoon.
I am not going to do a snow forecast with this small storm. Don’t worry, once winter really settles in I will dial into individual locations like I always have!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 243 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2023 COZ018-019-191300- /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0034.231119T1800Z-231120T1200Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton, and Rico 243 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 8500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts up to 1 foot possible in the Uncompahgre Gulch from Ouray south to Red Mountain Pass on Highway 550. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday.
And from Pueblo NWS who covers Wolf Creek.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 252 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2023 COZ066-068-190600- /O.NEW.KPUB.WW.Y.0029.231119T1800Z-231120T1200Z/ La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 252 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...La Garita Mountains and Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
These are low-end advisories, meaning while they don’t technically meet the criteria, they have been issued because it is early in the season and more people are traveling than usual.
The atmosphere became saturated around 1 pm and occasional light rain and snow showers have been falling, mostly in the areas that favor SW flow. Those areas are from Silverton south to Durango, west to Mancos and east to Wolf Creek.
Expect more of the same tonight, no big deal. Things should pick up in the morning across the SW flow-favored areas. Don’t worry, Telluride, Ouray, and Red Mountain. Your time will come with the approach and passage of the cold front as the flow turns NNW.
The most interesting thing I am seeing on the models currently is an interesting bullseye over the western portions of the forecast area from Lake Durango south to Shenandoah and west all of the way to Mancos. This bullseye shows up in several of the models and it includes DWest, Hesperus, Mayday, and all of the areas along 160 west to Mancos.
Although it would be fun to pick up 4 to 6 inches of snow. I am not sure how that could happen by Monday, it makes no sense. Perhaps tomorrow I will get more clarification on this.
Don’t be surprised to see a few snowflakes flying tomorrow morning down to 7,300′ before snow levels rise again from late morning to mid-afternoon. The frontal passage could be a dramatic moment as well later tomorrow. I hope to have better timing on that tomorrow.
The other thing I am watching is what could be another storm, cold enough to bring snow to all elevations starting on Friday. Still a little too early to worry, but since people will be traveling, I wanted to mention it.
My next update will be Sunday morning.
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