12/16/23 Saturday 7:30 am
Holiday precipitation looks like a good bet. This boring pattern will be in place at least through Wednesday. After that, a series of Pacific systems will make their way into the western US and affect our weather. A piece of the first system may arrive on Wednesday, or not. The models should get more dialed in on that soon.
In the meantime, that is just a tiny piece of what is coming over the next couple of weeks. The mid-term models have reached December 25th. Although the forecast from 10-15 days out is not very reliable, we can now track consistency from run to run.
What I am seeing at the moment, is that we will be transitioning into a wet pattern by next weekend. I can see the cold, but it may arrive a few days later, as soon as the 24th or slightly after. This means we could have similar conditions to our last storm with the next storm (likely next weekend). The timing of those waves coming onshore is a bit problematic this many days away. With that being said, it does not look like a matter of if. It looks like a matter of when and how many.
Here is the European model put into motion, with both the regional and local views beginning on the 23rd, and ending on the afternoon of the 25th (the end of the model run).
Regional
Local
It is too early to talk about accumulations, I will take a closer look at that on Tuesday.
I mentioned the cold earlier. I have been planning on a colder-than-average winter, which would deliver above-average snow, especially to the lower elevation areas. We have not seen that cold kick in yet. I said I could see the cold in the future. The best way to see that is in models that predict the Phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a big factor during El Nino winters.
We have not been in an El Nino winter for a few years, so I have not discussed it a lot. Early on in the website, I tried to go to great lengths to explain things that were not known to a lot of weather enthusiasts. Things are different now. We are a search engine-driven society that is becoming an AI-driven society.
If you want to learn more, when you are done reading this post you can go to your favorite source to learn more about the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). The short answer is, that it can help us determine if we are going to colder or warmer cycle, or a wetter or drier cycle. I searched it on Google, the Wiki version seemed concise enough without going into a lot of information you probably don’t care about.
The same models I look at for parameters such as liquid precipitation, snow, and temperature forecasts, also have forecasts for the MJO. I am going to share the GFS and Euro forecasts for the MJO today.
These models are called Phase Diagrams. Each phase of the MJO leads to different types of conditions favorable to wetter, drier, colder, or hotter conditions. There is also a Null Phase. This means that the MJO has less of an effect on atmospheric conditions when it is in that phase.
Here is the Euro forecast this morning for the MJO.
I added the green. See the green dot above the 16? That 16 represents a date. December 16 (today). Today, the MJO is in Phase 7. It is just outside that inner circle, which is the Null Phase. If you follow the line (forecast) you see that by December 20th, we will be deep into the Null Phase, between Phase 7 and Phase 8. This shows us emerging from The Null Phase and into Phase 1 by the 24th, where we remain until December 30th.
The Phases change slightly every month. So Phase 1 in December may have different conditions than it does in March.
Here are the Phases that favor colder-than-average conditions for our area. Blue is cold, yellow-orange and red are warm
Phases 1, 2, and 8. These may change slightly in 3 weeks.
Consistency is a good thing when it comes to weather models. The GFS is about as close to the European as you can get.
Today, the MJO is in Phase 7. It is just outside that inner circle, which is the Null Phase. By December 20th, we will be deep into the Null Phase, but into Phase 8. This shows us emerging from The Null Phase and into Phase 1 by the 24th, where we remain until December 30th.
A few years back, I met some followers at a holiday event. I had been talking a lot about the MJO. She mentioned that she had conversations with other followers who would be talking about the weather, and she would hear someone say, “Did you check out the latest run of the MJO?”. If that happens to you, you will at least have a vague understanding of what they are talking about.
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