10/9/26 Friday Morning Update 3:30 am-6:30 am

More changes overnight. The GFS is still west of Europe. But the Euro shifted even farther west overnight compared to the earlier run. To clarify, when I say it shifted west, I mean Rachel’s landfall is farther north, which pulls the remnant track farther west.

Again, that doesn’t mean we get missed; it means less rain but potentially more snow at lower elevations. This creates a quandary for me internally: “Would I rather get that extra 0.50″-1.00” of rain, or would I rather have snow below 8,000 feet? HMMMMM…

I am not going to get married to either solution just yet. Too many model-to-model and run-to-run inconsistencies remain.

Today & Saturday

This afternoon, there is a slight chance of light rain developing, favoring areas above 9,500 feet. Light showers will develop on Saturday, then become more widespread later in the afternoon. Saturday night: moderate showers will develop in the evening and continue through most of the overnight hours.

Sunday Durango Marathon

Right now, it looks like light showers for the duration of the event (most participants).

Remember, these forecasts are subject to two hurricanes, a trough of low pressure off the West Coast, and a cold front coming down from Canada. And more importantly, their tracks and how they interact with each other.

Predicted Macro Set-Up For Saturday Morning

These players will shape the weather from tomorrow through Wednesday night/Thursday.

Here are the maps in motion beginning Saturday morning. Yesterday morning, I mentioned that a further west trajectory would bring lulls in precipitation. Here is what that looks like.

What you see is the initial impact of Rachel’s moisture moving through, followed by a lull. Then recycled Rachel moisture caught up in the low-pressure, followed by the cold front pressing south Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The 552 thickness level indicates a snow level of 8,000 feet. When things slowdown a bit, and before our first low-elevation snowfall, I will explain thickness levels and what they tell us.

My plan was to share some preliminary precipitation totals to finish out the update. But the new overnight Euro just came out with a further-west (north) track. It shows a landfall north of San Diego?

Not that I buy into that yet. But I had to look at what type of energy that would create (nerd). Here is the resultant wave forecast.

40 footers! Yikes.

Hurricanes/ Tropical storms need warm water for fuel. Here are the sea surface temperatures.

Call me skeptical, but I don’t think the storm will go through 70-74 degree ocean temperatures. I am going to call this an inaccurate model run. Hopefully we see a correction with the next run (6 hours from now).

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10/08/26 Thursday 1 pm

I didn’t have as much time as I planned to go deep into the models. Sus had a very long, exhausting PBA attack; she finally fell asleep a couple of hours past naptime.

Anyway, I have looked at the models just long enough to tell you this:

Durango Marathon (Sunday)

All models show rain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. And rain most of the day on Sunday (light to moderate).

Rachel

The GFS went further west with Rachel. The Euro went further east, closer to us, than the goofy overnight run that had me all flustered this morning.

The GFS is still painting one to two inches of rain across the forecast area, even with the three hundred mile shift west.

The Euro, Canadian, and NOAA NBM hi-res multi-model are all showing widespread two to five+ inch totals for the event.

My post tomorrow morning will be out by 6:30 am.

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10/8/26 Thursday 4 am

There is a lot to unpack this morning. So much so that I don’t really trust anything I am seeing beyond Sunday — and I am not 100% sure about Sunday’s forecast.

If what I am seeing is close to correct, we will have to officially start the (Rachel/Simon/Cold front#1/Cold front #2) event totals on Saturday, which technically is the day the pattern change starts. It is a lot to process: 4 events, each with different variables, each of which can affect each other and ultimately our weather next week.

Today

More of the same, slight chances of afternoon showers, blah blah blah.

Saturday

Shower chances increase throughout the day, favoring elevations above 8,500 feet. Shower chances really crank up Saturday night, again, if I can beleive what I am seeing.

Sunday Durango Marathon

Light rain with a chance of periods of moderate rain in the morning, expanding in coverage in the afternoon and evening hours.

That is it. That is as far as I can go this morning.

As I said, I am trying to digest everything I am seeing. The  Tropical Cyclone Track models are doubling down on a further west Rachel landfall. Right now, it looks like Rachel wants to visit San Diego, then head up to Vegas.

No, that does not mean we get missed, not at all. Low-end models show an inch, while more complex, higher-resolution models show 3+ inches, with pockets exceeding 5 inches.

This is probably a good time to stop for now. There is too much to cover without seeing the next set of model runs. I will talk more about this synoptic traffic jam later today.

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10/7/26 Wednesday 4:00 am-

Today

As I said a couple of days ago, we’ll be locked into a broken-record forecast until this weekend: A slight chance of light afternoon showers favoring the higher elevations.

By this weekend, the models show an uptick in moisture as the remnants of Rachel lock into a final track.

Durango Marathon

Models are highly unreliable right now with the latest shifts in Hurricane Rachel’s track. At the moment, conditions look like they will be cool and drizzly, perhaps very light rain, and temps ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s early, rising to the low 60s by noon. This is subject to change

Rachel Tracks

Rachel’s remnants have shifted west in the latest Tropical Cyclone Track models this morning.

ATCF

European Ensemble

EuropeanAI/Google DeepMind

I am not ready to break down what this all means in detail. But here are a couple of thoughts.

1. This potentially could increase the amount of precipitation we get.
2. This could delay the onset of heavier precipitation, OR lead to a lull between light and heavy precipitation.

If we get consecutive model runs showing this today and tonight, then I will tackle that subject in greater detail tomorrow.

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10/6/26 Tuesday  12:30-2:15 pm

I don’t have much faith in this morning’s deterministic model runs from the GFS and European model right now. Deterministic models are higher resolution but are single model runs. Ensemble models are multi-model runs (typically 25 to 100 members, although Google DeepMind reportedly is already simulating a thousand atmospheric scenarios to produce an average/most likely scenario).  The problem with multi-model runs is that they are so low resolution you can’t really use them in our area for a daily forecast.

The GFS still shows a short-duration, monsoonal-style rain dump in the northern forecast area: 1.5″- 2.25″. I would put that scenario at a 5% chance. So likely model error. None of the other models show more than 0.25″.

The Euro is showing a wetter scenario for Sunday; we’ll see. At the same time, it shows mountain freezing rain, not convective graupel or freezing rain, which is impossible at higher elevations. So I am not feeling warm and fuzzy about the old standbys this afternoon.

So that leaves us with the updated multi-model Tropical Cyclone Track models for Rachel.

ATCF

European Ensemble

EuropeanAI /Google DeepMind

Hoping we get some better deterministic runs overnight!

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10/6/26 Tuesday 2:30-6:30 am

NOTE: A follower gave me a great suggestion. I have inserted a link to the Precipitation Report page at the very bottom of this update, so you don’t have to navigate the site to report.

Speaking of reports, make sure you enter the date/date range when the precipitation fell so people won’t think it happened on the date you entered.

Today

The GFS has been a huge outlier across the 4 model runs. That is a lot of consistency in what appears to be the “crazy town” solution, showing 1″ to 2″ of rain in the northern triangle (Red Mountain, Telluride, Ouray), with lower totals down to Silverton.

No other model I have access to shows more than 1/10th of that amount. They all show spotty showers at best. However, and it’s notable, PWAT values directly over that area are forecasted to soar to over 200% of average for this afternoon. So we will give it a very low chance, but monitor closely.

Durango Marathon

A very early first look at Sunday’s weather shows temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s  at 7 am. Overcast to drizzly, with light rain possible, and temperatures warming to the mid-60s by noon, with light southerly winds. When I was running marathons and ultras in the mid-to-late 90s. I would have considered those conditions perfect!

Rachel Recurve Storm Tracks

All Tropical Cyclone Track models show increasing confidence that Rachel will track closer to us than Polo.

ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system)

GFS Multi-Model

European

European AI (Google DeepMind)

California Surfer Alert!

European Wave Model

Crazy! That graph above shows the wave height forecast for next Sunday in feet! This is the peak day, but it won’t be a one-day event; heavy surf will be building all week. I haven’t heard anyone talk about this yet…

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Monday 10/05/26

Before I cover the model updates, I want to address a couple of quick things about the new precipitation reporting form.

First, accessing it. Step one: go to durangoweatherguy.com. If you are an email subscriber, open the email, then click on it to go to the site.

Next, click on Daily Precipitation Reports at the top of the page (from the site, not the image below).

 

You do not need to use your full legal name to submit a report! If you prefer, feel free to use your first name only, initials, or a handle (like “Subscriber Bob” or “Durango Resident”)– Please keep it tasteful. The most important parts are your neighborhood/location and the precipitation amount.

 

The other thing I have not talked about is searching the reports. You can type in a date or location to view a report, or just scroll through them. Also, because space is limited, drag the slider to view the rest of the report fields.

 

I would suggest playing with it so that when you need to submit a report, you will know what to do. By the end of the month, hopefully we have so much rain and snow that you will use it numerous times.

Model Updates

All multi-models are now forecasting the Rachel recurve in their latest forecast runs. All daily (deterministic) models are showing the recurve with maximum impacts and fusion with the cold front/early winter storm.

Will that continue? Who knows, but it is nice to see model consensus one week out! Precipitation forecast totals are very similar to what the forecast was for Polo, and many areas completely blew that away!

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10/5/26 Monday 4:30 am

For today (tomorrow and almost all week), a broken-record forecast: A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast area, favoring the higher-altitude areas. That does not mean you can rule out the lower elevations. Pop-up storms this time of year are less common than in summer and even harder to forecast.

The GFS is struggling to balance next week’s cold front vs. the demise of Hurricane Rachel . The GFS is fighting its heavy bias of moving storm systems too far east too quickly.

The European deterministic, multi-model, and Euro-Google multi-model runs all show the recurvature.

Euro Multi-Model

Euro/Google Multi-Model

Set up next Saturday at 6 am

Maps in motion wide view- Saturday 6 am-Monday  6 pm

Close view when it reaches Colorado: Sunday 6 am-Wednesday 6 pm

This will be the theme of the week, unless something bigger develops between now and then. Obviously, with it being a week out, things can change dramatically. So stay tuned. I am aware of the Marathon next Sunday, and I am keeping an eye on the Sunday forecast. At the moment, I still can’t provide a forecast, but I hope to by midweek!

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10/4/26 Sunday 1 pm

Sorry for sending out the page as a post, but we are good now; the reporting page is up. On the homepage, click on Daily Precipitation Reports. If you still have your totals, go ahead and enter them!

On weekends, I’ll continue editing and updating the site.

I think I mentioned Rachel as a recurve candidate last week. It looks like models think that will happen right when a cold front drops in from the Pac NW.  Here are model tracks:

European:

GFS:

 

If this holds, we will be in a much more favorable situation than last week with Polo and Odalys — if you can even imagine!

Here is the connection; this is Monday, October 12th.

State view

Euro

GFS

Fun stuff!

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10/4/26  Sunday 7 am

Last night, up in the North Valley, some sneaky showers popped up out of somewhere?  And just like that, everything has changed! Both the GFS and Euro are showing a chance of showers every afternoon this week! The Euro has slight chances increasing throughout the week. The GFS has something more significant for Tuesday evening into Wednesday. We’ll see.

I am going to implement the new self-reporting section of the site today. I will let everyone know when it’s tested and live (It will not affect website access while I am doing it). Maybe we’ll have something to report this week!

I have not mentioned it yet (I don’t think), but October 11/12th models have been indicating another significant precipitation event. They are also showing the first measurable snow down to 9500′. Again, we will see; I will feel better about its chances if the Canadian model starts sniffing it out.

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