9/17/26 Thursday 1:30 pm

This morning I wrote this: “Both models show light, steady rain, with intermittent, moderate to occasionally heavy rain continuing today and tonight. The models already start to diverge in 18 hours, with the GFS showing rain continuing for the next 36-48 hours. The Euro is similar, but it shows a break overnight; then it brings another wave through tomorrow morning”

In the latest model runs, the GFS has flipped over to the Euro’s take of the break into the overnight, then another wave coming through before morning

Although activity is still happening in the northern portions of the forecast, the central portions have slowed down a bit.  But not before dropping 1 to 2″ in the last 12 hours, including 1.77″ here at the DWG Command Center.

Tonight, on-and-off light showers should continue; after midnight, models show deeper moisture returning, leading to a soggy morning. How long those showers stick around is debated between the models, but they all show a noticeable tick down in the PWAT values (if you can call 175% of average a tick down) by Friday late afternoon/evening.

I still think it will be difficult to have no showers in the forecast for Saturday. GFS is showing better chances than the European model; at the moment, I am planning on it- with a better chance of convection rather than this beautiful stratiform we have been seeing.

Sunday looks dry, but we could still have residual moisture. By the time everything wraps up on Saturday, many locations will have had 4-5″ over the last several days–wet likes to stay wet. As you know.

Don’t get me started on next week; models are all over the place. I am also seeing snow levels approach 11,000 feet several times next week; we’ll see.

I will update everyone in the morning.

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9/17/26 Thursday 4 am

Models struggled in the evening runs (again).  Overnight, the GFS corrected somewhat. I am still waiting for the latest European overnight run; the evening run is worthless.

I should explain this further. Most weather models have four run times per day. 12z, 18z, 00z, and 06z (if you are unfamiliar with Z time, that is 6 am, noon, 6 pm, and 12 am). That is for our time zone; you add or subtract if you are not in our time zone.

Historically, I have found the 12z and 00z runs to be more accurate. That wasn’t the case last night, when both models struggled. It is usually a timing issue due to model lag times.

By model lag time, I mean what happens in the real weather while the model generates its forecasts. So if the Euro starts processing data at midnight and there is a slight unexpected change in the atmosphere in Arizona 30 minutes later, the whole forecast for our area could end up completely wrong (bad data in, bad data out).

For the GFS (US bellwether model), the midnight run is released/available between 3:30 am and 5:15 am. The European model is higher resolution (longer compute times) and is released/available between 5:15 am and 6:15 am.

Both the European and GFS have AI versions with compute times less than half of the base models. I am not a fan of AI models (yet) because they use early AI technology that is very old (in the AI world). 30 minutes is a ridiculously long compute time for AI. If these were constantly upgraded, compute time would be instantaneous.  I haven’t dug into the Google weather models yet, but I’ve heard good things.

I may revisit all of these topics from time to time, but it seemed appropriate to talk about them while waiting for the European.

5:45 am…

The Euro is out, and it initialized a little better than the last run. The precipitation forecasts from midnight to 6 am are just slightly higher than what has actually occurred.

Both models show light, steady rain, with intermittent, moderate to occasionally heavy rain continuing today and tonight. The models already start to diverge in 18 hours, with the GFS showing rain continuing for the next 36-48 hours. The Euro is similar, but it shows a break overnight; then it brings another wave through tomorrow morning.

I still don’t have a great handle on the weekend, but if we end up with as much rain as forecast, I think it is overoptimistic to expect immediate drying. At least for Saturday.

I will post again after the morning models generate.

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9/16/26 Wednesday 1:30 pm

The models initialized well and delayed the onset of showers due to the cloud cover that has been in place most of the day. Models increased PWAT forecasts, now showing portions of La Plata County hitting 345% of average tomorrow morning. Might be a record; I have never seen it before.

With the delay, they have also extended showers into Friday, which would likely mean residual moisture will stick around to fuel storms on Saturday. Sunday still looks pretty calm. We’ll see.

Radar looks, well, interesting, right now. Light showers appear to be retrograding (east-to-west) into the SE portion of the forecast area (eastern La Plata and Archuleta Counties).

Now we just need to be patient and let it come together. I will be up earlier tomorrow so I can get the update out right away.

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9/16/26 Wednesday 5 am

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

COZ018-019-021>023-162100-
/O.CON.KGJT.FA.A.0007.260916T1800Z-260918T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Four
Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-San Juan River
Basin-
Including the cities of Telluride, Mountain Village, Ouray, Lake
City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico, Cortez, Mancos,
Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, and Ignacio
304 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River,
  Northwest San Juan Mountains, San Juan River Basin and Southwest
  San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...From noon MDT today through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  This also includes the Gold Mountain, Elk and Ferris burn scars as
  well as areas of steep, susceptible terrain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Recent heavy rainfall in southwest Colorado has led to already
    saturated ground. In addition, multiple rounds of showers and
    thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
    evening producing periods of heavy rainfall and potential flash
    flooding.

This is what we could call a “blanket flood watch”. This is as widespread as you can get for our forecast area.

My only concern right now is poor model initialization. This means that when I look at what the models are forecasting for now, it is already wrong. Even with the latest GFS and Euro, which was generated within the hour. Same with the surface maps; the two versions I look at are completely different based on their latest obs, off by 500-1000 miles. That being said, we are under deep moisture, with dewpoints within a degree of current temperatures and current PWATs exceeding 200% of average.

Keep an eye on the cloud deck; if we get a few peaks of sun, it won’t take a lot to get things going, with residual moisture and forecasted PWATs continuing between 200-250% of average. The deeper moisture plume arrives later today and should overwhelm the atmosphere as those PWATs reach 300% of average.

So today, isolated showers should give way to scattered showers later today, followed by the potential for widespread heavy showers tonight. Assuming the models are correct.

As I said, if the cloud deck breaks open long enough to let the sun do its job, it will trigger thunderstorms earlier. The models are showing that happening just before noon; we’ll see.

If daytime heating isn’t enough to trigger convection, we will likely have to wait until that reinforcing moisture comes in later today/tonight.

That is the best I can do with the meteorological cards I was dealt this morning. My next hands will be dealt just before noon, and I will jump back on to see if we can narrow somethings down, or look at a different forecast.

If “the event” doesn’t come together, it would be the single worst model bust I’ve seen in 25 years. Stay tuned!

 

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9/15/26 Tuesday 5:30 am

Two hours later, I still have graupel/hail piles in my yard; it looked like snow on the ground. Here was the radar as it came overhead:

1.49″ in 47 minutes. Nearly an inch within the first 15 minutes. The air temperature dropped 6 degrees, based on how much graupel fell. The graupel likely distorted the actual rain total; it was probably higher.

People, including me, tend to have short-term memory when it comes to storms. But I am guessing this is in the top 5 since I have lived here.

Early yesterday morning, when I posted, I did not realize we had gotten 0.40″ after midnight. So, so far so good.

More is on the way! Models show showers redeveloping later today, tonight, overnight, Wednesday day, Wednesday afternoon, evening, night, Thursday morning, Thursday day, afternoon-evening, overnight, and likely Friday. A wet week indeed!

Right now, it looks like isolated light showers for the weekend.  A few days ago, it looked like Telluride Brews and Blues would be very cold and wet. Currently, the models don’t look nearly as bad as they did. No promises yet; I will keep everyone updated.

Models aren’t great at forecasting rain totals, but I had to check. They are showing an additional 2-4 inches of rain by Friday night.

I am swamped with emails; my goal is to get through them in the next couple of days.  Yesterday was much better overall, but things are definitely changing. I should still be able to post daily.

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9/14/26 Monday 2:30 am

I see an unimpressive line of showers on the radar setting up to our west; hoping this isn’t a repeat of last Monday.

I woke up a couple of hours ago to the spousal caregiver’s nightmare, realizing Sus was not in bed. For the last couple of months, I have made a routine of locking all the doors to the outside, just in case. She no longer has the dexterity to unlock them. I think it was about 18 months ago; I used to still be able to leave her for an hour to run down to the store. Now, I worry when I leave her alone anytime I go to the bathroom.

I found her sitting on the living room floor, wide awake, with both cats in front of her staring at her. Unresponsive at first to anything I said to her. Then she said nearly fluently, “I’m thirsty.” Got her to the couch and helped her drink a glass of water. She really did not know what was going on, or that anything was particularly unusual about what was happening.

Typically, she can’t walk at all without my assistance, so I am not sure how she got there. I also have to lift her in and out of bed these days.

So I got her to bed and gave her the pill she usually takes before bed (seroquel generic). Tried lying down until I knew she was asleep. Tears rolling down my face as I questioned every decision I have ever made in my life, wondering what in the hell I did wrong for this to happen to her and to our life.

I can’t explain why I feel responsible; I just do. Then I feel guilty because I know people go through worse, and then remind myself I have to be strong because the worst is yet to come.

So as I sit here, I have no idea if she is going to wake up better or worse. I know it’s going to throw off our schedule; it may lead to a new schedule. It’s going to throw me off my weather schedule for at least a day. I will post when I can.

Sorry to unload.

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9/13/26 Sunday Noon

The models are slowing down slightly the arrival of the heavier rain until closer to the 4 to 6 am timeframe tomorrow morning.

The models still favor the west for the heaviest showers. As I said, the models are horrible at that, so I don’t put as much stock in that solution. Dew points continue to tick up now, right around 50 in most locations.

Models diverge at hour 30 (6 pm Monday). GFS wants to bring another surge of moisture, associated with yet another trough and low-pressure system, Monday night into Tuesday. European waits a little longer.

Long-time followers may remember the GFS and European have opposite biases with fronts. GFS tries to bring them in and out too fast, and the Euro tries to hold them back to our west for too long.

Overall, I concur with my earlier assessment that it is going to be a wet week, which means it will be cooler! At least through Thursday. It could be a busy week!

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9/13/26 Sunday 6 am

Today will require two updates. Models agree that showers will develop and could become heavy by Monday morning.

They are also lighting up the western portions of the forecast for the heaviest precipitation from Cortez to Durango and Cortez to Telluride and points in between; Rico in particular, likely the north end of Dolores as well.  Forecasting rain totals is tricky business (impossible in our area). But it is worth noting.

Anyway, I will be pouring over models all morning and post early afternoon. I know I said I was going to all of this one day at a time, but it looks like it could be a pretty wet week! Also, the temperature forecast for Tuesday morning just west of Red Mountain is 33 degrees…

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9/12/26 Saturday 6 am

How ’bout this!

A little pink on the screen. This is radar-indicated frozen precipitation. At what level? I can’t tell. I know that at 9,800 feet, temps are in the mid-40s. I also know that there is a remote backcountry location at 11,675 feet (Opus Hut), where it is currently 39 degrees.

Rain accumulations around Telluride so far are between 0.30 and 0.45″. Good slow mover. I saw it overnight coming over from Utah, pretty cool.

Everywhere else, dew points are creeping into the low 40s. Models show this shower activity around Telluride, subsiding, then restarting; you can see a thunderstorm complex developing northwest of Telluride. Models are horrible at this setup; they all missed the moderate accumulations that have fallen so far. So low confidence in the forecast for the rest of the day up there.

A slightly better chance of showers developing elsewhere this afternoon. But a slightly better chance is still pretty low. Same story during the day on Sunday: slightly better, but chances increase into the late afternoon and evening. As we wait for a PAC NW trough to drop, moisture will continue to deepen.

My current take is that, unlike last week, there will be enough moisture for proper top-down saturation, which would likely produce stratiform showers (as opposed to thunderstorms).

Here is a side-by-side showing the consensus between European and GFS models showing widespread shower coverage on Monday morning.

Fingers crossed!

Models immediately diverge by late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Hopefully we will get better clarification by tomorrow. What the models do agree on is that this is highly unlikely to be a one-day-and-done event. They both show better precipitation chances this week than we have had in a while!

My next update will be Sunday.

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09/11/26 Friday 4:30 am

It is very, very dry this morning, and it’s cool out. I got an email from someone who finally gave up and bought a window air conditioner. She theorized that because she bought it, she probably wouldn’t need it anymore.

Long-time followers know that I use similar theories when forecasting inclement weather. For example, in December/November, someone will ask about our first snowfall. My first thought is to look at the academic sports event calendars. Because it seems like our storm track correlates with when a High School sports team is scheduled to get on a bus and travel over Red Mountain Pass.

I am joking, of course; that does not dictate the forecast, but it sure seems to happen a lot. It’s a chaos-theory-meets-meteorology thing that fascinates me.

Hmm, I take a couple of days off, then my first post back, I go down that rabbit hole of overthinking within the first couple of paragraphs…

Back to the AC, she might be right, although temperature preference is very personal. Says the guy who keeps a window fan in the bathroom 12 months out of the year…

Enough. As I said, it’s dry out. Dew points in the 20s and lower, PWAT values around 30% of average. Not exactly the conditions that generate a lot of shower activity. But the models are attempting to increase the moisture beginning today, increasing tomorrow, with more of a plume of moisture moving in late Sunday into Monday. That sounds like last weekend and last Monday.

Monday showed us that even high-value moisture takes a while to reach the top-down saturation level for rain to reach the ground. Last Sunday night, despite the high dew points and PWATs, the moisture plume was so transient that it was gone before ever having a chance to get going. Most locations got <= 0.10″ inches of rain; many got half or less than that.

The modeling differs as we approach Monday and the coming week. The models are not portraying the moisture as transient; they show reinforcing moisture as we move into mid-to late next week. So we think we have that in our favor. For now, I am going to take it one or two days at a time.

For today and tomorrow, there will be a slight chance of afternoon showers favoring the northern forecast area and elevations above 8,800 feet.  I am closely watching next week. Models are showing pulses of deeper moisture coming in Monday and Tuesday, with deeper plumes of subtropical moisture by midweek.

I am not going jump on the: “Monsoon Returns!” train just yet, but it does look interesting. I am definitely seeing indications that the mountains could see some light snow after the 20th. I’d love confirmation and pictures from people who see it!

My next update will be Saturday morning.

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