2/23/26 Monday 2:30 am

I am not so sure about this list of local reports. I think this is a mix of Friday-only totals and the event totals.

The models seem to be in disarray right now.  Perhaps they will get a better read after the Nor’easter moves further out to sea.

At the moment, it looks like just a slight chance of snow on Wednesday night or Thursday in the higher elevations. We are definitely going to warm up, and the dreaded ridge is coming back for at least 7 to 10 days.

Wolf Creek 59 (remember, that is what the Canadian Model forecasted!)
Purgatory 37
Telluride 29 inches

0.4 inches: Ridgway
1.7 inches: Ridgway
4 inches: 2.5 miles NE of Cortez
5 inches: Hwy 172 between Ignacio and Oxford
6 inches: Marvel Spring (just south of)
Over 6 inches: Southern Bluffs Subdiv, SE Cortez
At least 6 inches: West Pagosa Springs
7 inches: Sunnyside school – Mesa
7 inches: 6 miles east of Ignacio
Approximately 7 inches: Ouray
7.5 inches: 32nd St. at Holly
8 inches: Jackson Lake/Mancos
8 inches: Mancos
8 inches: Downtown Mancos
10 inches: Highland Ave, Durango
10+ inches: Edgemont Ranch
10.25 inches: 7 miles west of Mancos (7,190 ft)
10–12 inches: Forest Lakes (7,400 ft)
11 inches: 3.5 miles from Mancos on Rd 40
12 inches: Mesa Heights (Elmores Corner)
12 inches: 2305 Columbine Drive, Durango
12 inches: East side of Animas Valley
12 inches: 3 miles south of Mancos (7,000 ft)
12–14 inches: Gem Village
13 inches: Elk Spring Subdivision, Mancos Hill
13 inches: 1395 CR 207
Approximately 13–14 inches: Town of Mancos
14 inches: Bayfield (Dove Ranch)
14 inches: Hermosa
14 inches: Animas Valley Elementary
14 inches: 3 Springs
14.25 inches: 17 Bacus Ave, Durango
15 inches: Twin Buttes
15 inches: 7 miles up Dolores River Valley
15 inches: Rockridge
15 inches: Timberline
15.1 inches: 1034 E 5th Ave, Durango
16 inches: 2.5 miles north of Elmores Corner (CR 234)
16 inches: Edgemont (Roof of home)
16 inches: Hesperus (7,800 ft)
16 inches: Rafter J (7,400 ft)
16 inches: Deer Valley
16.5 inches: 1922 CR 125
16–17 inches: Downtown Bayfield
17 inches: Edgemont Highlands
17 inches: CR 234/CR 225
17.3 inches: Pine River Ranches
17.9 inches: Three Springs
18 inches: CRs 228 and 502 (7,671 ft)
18 inches: Willow Dr
18 inches: Destination Ranch (Bottom gate)
18 inches: 3 miles N of Mancos
Approximately 18 inches: Upper end of Pine River Ranches
19.5 inches: Lower Forest Lakes
20 inches: Edgemont
20 inches: 598 Bellflower Rd, Bayfield
20 inches: Upper Florida Estates
20 inches: Upper Forest Lakes
20 inches: The Enclave at North Dalton
20–24 inches: Forest Lakes (8,200 ft)
21.3 inches: Edgemont Highlands
21.4 inches: Lower Forest Lakes
21.5 inches: 8,200 ft (Bayfield area)
22 inches: O-Bar-O Cabins (CR 240)
22 inches: DVE (7,300 ft)
22 inches: Turtle Lake
22.1 inches: Hermosa (near train depot)
22.5 inches: Lower Los Ranchitos
23 inches: Top of Hawks Meadow Drive (7,600 ft)
24 inches: Buckhorn Rd, Upper Forest Lakes
24 inches: Hermosa
24.5 inches: Falls Creek Ranch (7,500 ft)
25 inches: Los Ranchitos Estates
26 inches: Top of Enchanted Forest
26 inches: Destination Ranch (Top of subdivision, 8,000 ft)
26.3 inches: Falls Creek Ranch
27 inches: Hesperus (8,150 ft)
27.1 inches: Polar Hamlet (Silverton)
28 inches: Lemon Dam (8,200 ft)
30 inches: North end of Vallecito
30–32 inches: Mayday
32–36 inches: Lemon, Sierra Verde, Wilderness Lakes
42 inches: Rico

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2/22/26 Sunday 6 am

I had a really tough day, fortunately I got a lot of sleep last night. I will get on it 3 or 4 am.

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2/21/26 Saturday 3:30 am

I received several play-by-play reports throughout the week. But I am interested in the event totals for the week from those of you who were keeping track. I have only received a couple since it officially stopped, which took a while yesterday. The sun would come out for a minute, then “left overs” would blow through, causing near-whiteout conditions. Very fun!

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2/19/26 Thursday 1:30 pm

The third wave is on the way! Snow should start tonight between 8 pm and midnight.

I was pleased to see this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1124 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

COZ021>023-201200-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0006.260220T0600Z-260221T0600Z/
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-San Juan
River Basin-
Including the cities of Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Towaoc, Mesa
Verde National Park, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs
1124 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
PM MST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 to 6
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, and
  San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

BUT- I think it is too low.

Then there’s this:

COZ017-019-UTZ028-201200-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0006.260220T0600Z-260221T0600Z/
Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Southwest San Juan
Mountains-La Sal and Abajo Mountains-
Including the cities of Ridgway, Glade Park, Colorado National
Monument, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, Hesperus,
Spanish Valley, La Sal, and Monticello
1124 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
PM MST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...In Colorado, Southwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre
  Plateau and Dallas Divide. In Utah, La Sal and Abajo Mountains
  generally above 6500 ft.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

 

COZ068-200200-  
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0004.260220T0600Z-260221T0600Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-  
INCLUDING CUMBRES PASS AND WOLF CREEK PASS  
1048 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM   
MST FRIDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN   
  8 AND 12 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.   
  WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW   
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS   
  COULD IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES. STRONG WINDS   
  COULD CAUSE TREE DAMAGE.  
  

Here is what I expect before the storm departs tomorrow afternoon.

Marvel, Red Mesa, Ignacio, Cortez: 2 to 4 inches

Durango, Mancos, Bayfield: 4 to 8 inches

All mid-elevation subdivisions from 7,200 ft to 7,600 ft: 6 to 10 inches

All mid-elevation subdivisions above 7,700 ft: 8 to 12 inches

Note to Vallecito folks: More than one hi-res models show sporadic “bullseyes” in your area. I would not be surprised if you get 14-20.

Purgatory: 8 to 12 inches

Telluride: 3 to 6 inches

Wolf Creek: 14 to 18 inches

Lizard Head: 14 to 18 inches

Red Mountain and Silverton: 3 to 6 inches.

Gotta go

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2/19/26 Thursday 7:30 am

Another round of snow arrives tonight. I will be back a little later to let you know what to expect!

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― Winter Maintenance Alert ― Motorists can expect full closures in both directions Wed., on US 160 Wolf Creek Pass Passenger vehicles will be stopped at 12:30 p.m. while crews perform safety critical winter operations

Southwest Colorado — US Highway 160 Wolf Creek Pass between Pagosa Springs and South Fork will close to travel on Wednesday, February 18 while the Colorado Department of Transportation performs safety-critical winter maintenance operations. Beginning at noon, US 160 will close to commercial motor vehicles. At 12:30 p.m., passenger vehicles will be stopped in both directions a for approximately one hour. Motorists should plan ahead, allow for extra travel time, or arrive and drive through the closure points before the designated closure times. Parking and recreating is prohibited between the closure points during winter maintenance operations. Backcountry users must move their vehicles and vacate the area before the scheduled closure times. Traffic Impacts Lengthy delays on US 160 Wolf Creek Pass will begin at Noon on February, 18 2026. Eastbound travelers will encounter a closure at Treasure Falls (Mile Point 157), 13 miles east of Pagosa Springs Westbound travelers will encounter a closure at the Wolf Creek Pass Ski Area (MP 167), 19 miles west of South Fork Closure times are approximate and depend on the snow conditions and success of winter maintenance operations. Visit www.COtrip.org for the most current closure times and traffic impacts.Travelers should also be aware that during the winter season, snow conditions may require additional maintenance work and safety closures at any time on many southwest Colorado highways.

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2/17/26 Tuesday 6 pm

Don’t worry. Tomorrow will be better. There is a reason I did not go with day-to-day forecasts. Tomorrow, the next shortwave trough should be colder and last longer. Too tired to explain.

Ughh, new challenges every day. If anyone is caring for a PD loved one and wakes up to find them so frozen (lack of dopamine) that you can’t wake them, I learned from Gemini AI. Don’t judge. I was told to set a 100 bpm metronome. Simple search, there are many different speeds on YouTube.

Within 30 seconds, she opened her eyes. 10 seconds later, she was able to take a pill and sip water by herself.

Asked why this worked:

Response

 

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2/16/26 Monday 11:00 am

11:00 am is the time I started writing this. A quick look at the webcams shows clouds building in over Purgatory and Telluride. Models indicate a few snow showers possible later this afternoon and this evening ahead of the frontal passage tomorrow morning.

First of all, here are the numerous Watches and Warnings:

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

COZ018-019-170815-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.260217T0600Z-260219T1200Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn
Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and
Hesperus
1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting
  as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
  snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
  Strong winds could cause tree damage.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.

...AVALANCHE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY...

*WHAT... Heavy snow and strong winds will result in HIGH (4 of 5)
avalanche danger

*WHERE... The San Juan Mountains and the Park Range

*WHEN... Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions to begin
Wednesday and last through Friday

*IMPACTS... Large and dangerous avalanches will be easy to trigger.
Large avalanches will run naturally.

*PRECAUTION/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel in backcountry avalanche
terrain is not recommended from Wednesday through Friday.
Avoid travel on and under slopes with a slope angle steeper than
about 30 degrees. You can find more detailed information at
colorado.gov/avalanche

 Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Towaoc, Mesa Verde National Park, Durango,
Bayfield, and Ignacio
1129 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Yampa River Basin, Lower Yampa River Basin, Animas
  River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, and Paradox
  Valley/Lower Dolores River.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

San Juan River Basin-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs
1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 7000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow may result
  in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds
  could cause tree damage.

 Wolf Creek Pass, and Cumbres Pass
1113 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wind driven snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 8 and 16 inches. Up to 24 inches possible across portions
  of the Eastern San Juan Mountains. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph
  causing blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet and Eastern San
  Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Very strong
  winds could cause power outages and tree damage.

Still nothing for Durango…

As I said this morning, the most dangerous times of the storms are Tuesday morning, during the first frontal passage, and Wednesday afternoon, during the next frontal passage–I will firm up the timing on Wednesday’s fropa (frontal passage) tomorrow.

Good news! The Euro is back on track, showing more snow on Friday. However, there are many discrepancies among the models for Friday’s totals. For now, I will focus on Tuesday through Thursday and address the Friday totals later this week.

Here is my forecast for snowfall through Thursday.

Wolf Creek Pass: 38 to 46 inches

Lizard Head, Coal Bank: 28 to 36 inches

Red Mountain Pass, Telluride: 18 to 24 inches

Mayday, Silver Creek Ranch: 18 to 24 inches

Purgatory: 22 to 28 inches

Rico, Dunton, Silverton: 16 to 20 inches

Ouray: 8 to 12 inches

Ridgway: 2 to 5 inches

Vallecito, Lemon area, Enchanted Forest,  Tween,  Upper Forest Lakes, Texas Creek, Aspen Trails,  Upper Durango Hills: 18 to 24 inches

Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill area: 14 to 18 inches

Upper Falls Creek, Dwest 1&2, Glacier, Edgemont Highlands,  Edgemont Ranch and Meadows, Lower Forest Lakes: 12 to 16 inches

Timberdale area, Rockwood, Bakers Bridge, Pagosa Springs, Aspen,  Shenandoah Highlands: 8 to 12 inches

Timberline, Skyridge, Hermosa, Dalton, Pagosa: 6 to 10 inches

Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Gem Village, Trappers Crossing: 5 to 9 inches

 Bondad, Cortez, Red Mesa, Marvel, Ignacio: 2 to 4 inches.

If you are attempting travel over the passes this week, expect delays.

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2/16/26 Monday 5:30 am

Everything is on track for Monday through Thursday morning. The European model is now showing low impacts on Friday. However, for now, it’s the only model with that solution. It bears watching because it’s an abrupt change, but I can’t take it too seriously yet.

For today, warm and windy is the forecast. But nothing compared to the wind we will get during the frontal passages on Tuesday morning and on Wednesday.

It will be a very abrupt change. Temperatures will drop quickly, and if you are indoors, you will hear the front; the wind will be gusty. Be very careful if you are driving because there will likely be “whiteouts” and snow squall potential is high.

Wednesday looks even more dramatic: colder air will move through and may spark some convection (thunder snow). More whiteout conditions and snow squalls.  Perfect snow environment, with liquid to snow ratios soaring into the high teens in some areas.

It appears NWS has not made up its mind on extending the Winter Storm Warning to the lower and mid-elevation areas. Likely because they think the pavement will still be “warm,” melting the snow as it falls.

I am not so sure that will be the case. I expect them to change their mind at some point, perhaps when they see the frontal passage on the webcams. If not for tomorrow, then definitely before the frontal passage on Wednesday.

If you are new to the area and have not experienced a big storm, this one will be memorable! You don’t want to try to drive in it (if you can’t see, you can’t drive)

Here is the current Winter Storm Warning for the higher elevations.

 

COZ018-019-161815-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.260217T0600Z-260219T1200Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn
Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and
Hesperus
1003 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM
MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting
  as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
  snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
  Strong winds could cause tree damage.

Yes, 70 mph!

As long as my internet stays on, I can post if the power goes out because I have the AC generators fully charged and ready.

Will the City of Durango and La Plata County be ready? That’s the question.

I will be working on my forecasts today; they will be out later this afternoon. I may hold off on the Friday system until either the European figures out what it is doing or the other models move toward the European solution.

Can you tell I am excited?

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2/15/26 Sunday Noon

I have been asked why I concentrate on only 3 weather models. Well, I usually only share 2 or 3. But I look at nearly every one of them.

It takes a while to crop them down and label locations. So, in the interest of time, here are some of the models I look at besides the  “Big Three”.

The other benefit to not cropping these down is that if you look at the bottom right of the map you will see MAX with a number next to it. That is the maximum output amount. In this case, it says 50.9. Referring to 50.9 inches, which just happens to refer to that little pink dot near Wolf Creek.

NBM (National Blend Of Models) hi res.

NBM v5 (experimental)

Canadian GDPS(Experimental)

UK Met- Apparently, they don’t worry too much about snow in the UK because there is no snow output parameter. This is in liquid equivalent (inches)

ICON (German) again in liquid, but for a different reason–it handles snow horribly.

Big Three

European

GFS

Canadian

You can’t help but notice that they all share a similar story, which makes it a pretty high-confidence event.

Adding to the confidence is Probabilistic Guidance (say that 5 times fast), which shows a 75% chance of 1 to 2+ feet of snow in the mountains. They arrive at that number by running numerous simulations. That is a very high number. I don’t recall the last time I saw such a high number for that much snow!

 

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