7/20/26 Monday 4:00 am

Southern and some central portions of the forecast area finally got in on the action yesterday.

Here are the totals. The minimum amount I am reporting is 0.20″

550 south

Walker Ln 0.67″

Rainbow Rd 1.28″ and 0.88″

Quarter Horse Rd 0.45″

Rafter J 

S. Elk Run 0.22

N road 0.27

Castle Rdg road 0.24

Forest Lakes

Pinetree 0.37

Meadowbrook Dr 0.65

Lake Sympatico 0.97

Olr Cortez Rd (PRR) 0.55

Other reports

CR 220 0.65

CR 250 Durango 0.22

Harper Florida Mesa Station 0.31

CR 302 0.22

McCoy Creek (Lemon) 0.31

County Rd X (west of McPhee) 0.50

Alta Lakes 0.25

Ames 0.39

Models agree that today’s storm chances are decreasing. With the exception of areas south of Durango along 550 South. There are a couple of bullseyes along the Colorado/New Mexico border.

Storm chances increase on Tuesday through at least Thursday.

The models diverge from Friday onwards. The European model shows storms increasing in coverage and intensity beginning later this week. The model run only extends to August 3rd. It shows storms every afternoon through that time period.  Perhaps it is the start of the deeper monsoon we have been waiting for!

Thank you all. I am going to be digging into the emails again today; it’s going to take a couple of days to catch up.

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7/19/26 Sunday 5:30 am

First of all, thank you. I will be following up individually with everyone.

Yes, there were totals yesterday. Mostly up north in and around Telluride and in Pagosa Springs.

Telluride

Deep Creek 1.10″

W Laurel 0.68″

Mountain Village 0.42″

N Fir 0.35

N Willow 0.33

Columbia 0.34

Placerville 0.33

Sawpit 0.56

Hermosa Area

Trimble 0.31

“Kathy’s” house 0.38

N. Dalton Ranch 0.28

Other Totals

“Ground Hog” (Don’t ask me; it appears to be where CR 31 meets Dissapointment Rd)  1.37″

Trappers Crossing 0.46

Edgemont Meadows 0.30

Pagosa Springs had totals ranging from 0.30″ to 0.76″

The rest of us had less than 0.20″

The only thing good I have to say about the models yesterday is that they were targeting the Northern forecast area, and we did have results up there.

Today, they have a new bullseye target. They favor extreme western La Plata County, Archuleta County, and Dolores County. Should be interesting!

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7/18/26 Saturday 5:00 am

Yes, there were totals yesterday. Congratulations Telluride. To be fair, GFS was the only model that got that right yesterday.

Here are Telluride totals:

Fir Street 1.01″

Columbia Ave 0.87″

Willow 0.86

Deep Creek 0.69

Laurel 0.63

Mountain Village 0.52

Lower and Mid -elevations:

Durango Rim Dr. 1.01

Durango in town 0.05″ (donut)

Dolores 0.61

Forest Lakes 0.21 & 0.30

I excluded all totals under .0.09.

Today, models highlight the Telluride area again, as well as a big bullseye over Dolores. It seems pretty random, but Dolores has done better than most areas.

Nearly all of the models show less than 0.10″ for lower elevations. The models have been horrible so far this week across the lower and mid-elevations. So that is what I am going to expect. If they are completely wrong, then we will get more as a bonus.

For tomorrow, models are highlighting western La Plata County and eastern Archuleta.

Yesterday, I noticed some changes in the low and high pressure placement. They are responsible for moisture transport. As of this morning, there is another interesting placement. However, the surface map data is always so old that we never really know if it is correct.

The other thing we had working against us yesterday was convection.  We had cloud cover (at least at my house) nearly all morning. We need that sun to help destabilize the atmosphere so storms can form. We will see what happens.

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7/17/26 Friday 11 pm

About a year ago, nearly to the day, I published a post. We had a horribly dry winter (24/25). When I have very little snow to talk about and forecast, people stop reading. And when they do, donations dry up, with 90% of donations typically coming in during the winter,

So, I reached out in the post. I was perfectly blunt and honest about my wife’s condition. A lot of my followers are friends or former clients of Susan. I explained the situation and asked my donor followers not to wait until the winter/holiday season. I asked everyone to make their donations early, in July rather than December.

Here we are a year later. Last winter, the drought was even worse than last year. Snow totals were the lowest I have encountered in the 18 years I have lived here—likely some of the lowest ever recorded in our area. And, as bad as Sus situation was last year, it pales in comparison to what we are dealing with at home right now.

Over the last few months, Susan has been declining at a much faster rate. To the point where I notice a day-to-day decline at times. If you are new here, my wife was diagnosed four years ago with Parkinson’s. It turns out that was just an initial diagnosis. As time went on, neurologists changed her diagnosis as she began showing signs of five other neurological disorders. I have never said this publicly or privately before, but I have recently come to the painful conclusion that she is dying in front of me, now that dementia has entered the picture.

It wasn’t my intent to give an update on her condition today, as I shared those details last month and plan to continue doing so every six months to keep her many friends in the loop.

Today I am reaching out with the same message as last year. If you usually donate in the winter, I am, once again, asking for your support now rather than later. I feel so blessed to live in a community like this. Your support means the world, and I deeply appreciate the generosity of our communities here in Southwest Colorado.

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7/17/26 Thursday 5:30 am

Sorry I did not get the afternoon update out yesterday; it was a very challenging afternoon.

The 0.03″ of drops I got yesterday were less than impressive. If you are in or close to Durango, Telluride, or Silverton. Yesterday was a bust. On a positive note, I have been enjoying the cooler afternoons and overnight temperatures.

Mancos, Edgemont Highlands, Pagosa, Hawks Meadow off 505. All had higher totals yesterday, between 0.30″ and 0.60″.

Mixed emotions after this week. Though we have had slightly over  1.0″ this week at the DWG Command Center.

Once again, the models are pretty enthusiastic about precipitation chances for today. And, once again, they are painting some higher totals up north across the higher elevations. The models continue to show showery afternoons through midweek, then we may see a break Thursday through next weekend. That could change, and not all models are showing that break.

 

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7/16/26 Thursday 6:30 am

Experiment complete. Neither HiRes model I shared yesterday did very well. I am retiring them both until winter, and I will give them another shot then.

I can’t say they were 100% wrong. Surprisingly, there were some big bullseyes. 0.87″ off Cr 502. 0.90″ in Dolores. 0.30″ to 0.60″ around Mancos AND Cortez! Then north of Lemon in McCoy Creek, 2.16″. While Vallecito got less than 0.20.

The heavy showers are highly storm-dependent. What have I said for years about thunderstorms? Models cannot make precise predictions of the exact locations where thunderstorms will develop. They can only predict when conditions will be favorable for development.

Speaking of which, morning model consensus from overnight runs is indicating heavier showers today developing further north. Hopefully Telluride will finally get in on the action.

I will be back this afternoon to see if there are any changes to the models after the new ones come out today.

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7/15/26 Wednesday Noon

I have not seen any drops yet, but I do see convection building up just W and SW of Purgatory (noon).

Here are a couple of interesting precipitation forecasts from two high-resolution models for the period between now and 6 am tomorrow.

The first is the model that NOAA is getting rid of; they have planned its demise for the last 2 1/2 years. You have heard me talk about it before. It is the NAM 3k. You may remember I have said it really struggles in our area. But it is the go-to in flat states.

And here is the new RRFS, still in experimental mode.

I admit I have not used the RRFS yet. I am anxious to see if it is any better than the NAM3k. It would be nice to have an accurate Hi-Res model.

Not much to add this afternoon. I looked at the new Euro, and it shows afternoon storms for 10 days straight.

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7/15/26 Wednesday 6 am

I will be doing my normal midday post, but if you feel like you have missed out on the rain the last couple of days, today and the next several days. we will see better shower coverage than Monday and Tuesday.

Don’t be surprised if things get underway earlier and produce storms into this evening/night!

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7/14/26 Tuesday 11 am

I am about 50/50 on yesterday’s model run showing the bullseyes. It was partially correct, but the heaviest precip fell just east of where indicated. I received reports of 0.80 inches in Hesperus, and  0.76 inches in Lightner Creek. Being in the middle of those locations, I only received an additional 0.24 inches. Most reports were higher; some were definitely lower.

No worries, there is plenty more on the way. Remember, yesterday and today were bonus “early start days”. Thinking back, I originally said on or after the 17th.

I was fully prepared to say that this afternoon was likely to be the least active of the week. Until the new European came out. It has a similar bullseye to yesterday, but a little further south.  I am going to leave it in the “for what it’s worth” category for now.

I don’t want to get too far off-topic, but I came across a couple of interesting things.

1. Finally some tropical activity to track. Low pressure should develop into a Tropical Depression this weekend. Where she goes from there is anyone’s guess. Recurves onto the US are pretty unusual this early in the season, but not unheard of. Remember Tropical Storm Bud in 2018? It helped us out immensely with our 416 fire!

2) This run (below) from NOAA’s CFSv2. This is NOAA’s  Climate Forecast System. This model was launched in mid-2011. It is an updated version of the CFS, which launched in 2004. CFSv2 is supposed to be much more accurate than the original.

Anyway, I came across its temperature anomaly forecast for JFM (January February, March).

The model has never forecasted this cold of winter in the 14 1/2 years since it was released. This could throw a wrench in the winter forecast if it continues in this direction! Another thing to keep an eye on: this signature could only appear if we have a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) with a very strong El Niño. I won’t go into the PDO in depth unless it becomes more certain. But the overall message is, it could be an interesting winter for much of the US!

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7/13/26 Monday 1 pm

I got multiple inch-plus reports of 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain. Mid-elevation areas a couple of miles on either side of HWY 160 was the apparent storm track.

By definition, the most saturated areas have the best chances of heavier rain this afternoon. All models missed those heavy overnight showers.  I will be very happy if this afternoon’s forecast verifies.

All models are indicating a bullseye area for this afternoon. Likely after 3 pm, but maybe much later. This area runs from approximately the Hesperus Ski area to Mancos. It extends north into the La Platas. And South along the RD46 loop and Menefee Mountain. If you live in that area, you know what I’m talking about. If you don’t, you probably don’t care.

That darker shade of green indicates heavier rains and higher totals. Intriguing to have such model consensus for such a small area. They might be wrong. We’ll see. If they are right,  then that may give me better tools during the monsoon season.

As far as timing goes, any time from 3 to 9 pm.  I would be nervous if there was no lightning detection in the forecast area before 3 pm. Before I finished typing that, my weather station detected lightning between 9 and 12 miles away!

By the way, that other bullseye around Vallecito, Lemon, and Forest Lakes is not on all models, unlike the western bullseye.  Not a lot more to talk about. Hopefully we will have some great totals to talk about in the morning!

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