Well, the radar looks much better than yesterday. This is 2 pm
Here is a close-up
Dew points are UP!
Morning models increased coverage overall. The European is highlighting heavier showers at lower elevations, including Durango, between 5 and 10 pm. We will see; normally, I only pay attention to a setup like this in the winter. But it is so specific, I thought I would mention it in case you are out and about this evening.
I forgot to post the few totals from yesterday. Telluride was favored.
8/22/26 Saturday 4:30 am
For today, will it be a repeat performance of what actually happened? Or will we get what the models forecasted yesterday but didn’t materialize? I felt pretty good about the forecast 24 hours ago. But then the model updated, and as I explained in my afternoon post, my forecast confidence crashed.
For example: Here was yesterday’s forecast between noon and six pm yesterday.
Here is today’s forecast between noon and six pm
They look very similar. So, as I just said, will it be a repeat performance of what actually happened? Or will it do what the models forecasted yesterday but didn’t materialize?
The model run you see above is slightly more convincing than yesterday’s. Similar, but a little different.
Behind the scenes, the current surface map shows the same stationary front I saw yesterday across the eastern plains of Colorado. However, it has retrograded about 120 miles west from yesterday. The northern portions of the front are right up against the foothills north of Denver.
I am also seeing support from the new short-term model for the latest European run. This new short-term model is experimental for four more months before it replaces the NAM3k model.
This morning’s dew points are the same as yesterday; current PWATs are higher than yesterday.
This current setup provides better support for the higher elevations. I am going to stick with isolated coverage for today, favoring the higher elevations.
There will be another afternoon update or two this afternoon.
8/21/26, Friday after 2 pm
I was not too crazy about the latest run of the European model. I also wish we would see an uptick in dew points. Of course, the model lowered PWATs for this afternoon and evening. The radar is not very impressive either
I am not saying it’s going to be a bust for everyone. High pressure is to our southeast; it’s supposed to move farther SE. But the unexpected wobbles of these highs and lows can confuse a model (and forecasters). Bring on the winter storm season!
I started off negative, so stick with me as I try to talk myself into evening storms: It was one model run. The model had tagged today as the best day for widespread rain for several days, 4 times a day. That is consistency, and it usually is a great signal. The last run to show that was the one that came out 6 hours after the last positive run. That would be highly unusual to have a week’s worth of runs- call it 28 positive to 1 negative.
The radar isn’t naked:
Sorry, Southern forecast area, that portion of the radar was actually naked, so I did not think it would be appropriate to leave it on there.
The first thing that jumps out at me is that intense cell over Rico; it’s been there a while. In fact, this radar shot is from 3:40 pm. None of this activity has moved very much. That means there is no dominant flow, and steering winds are nearly non-existent.
An excellent question would be: “What is it going to do?” But I would not ask myself that because I know I can’t give a confident answer. I just remember the prior positive model runs had shown moist inflow coming between 5-9 pm. Also, an increase in PWATs and (storm) CAPE. So if you are out tonight, don’t be surprised either way. I hope it was an anomalous run; it would not be the first time!
8/21/26 Friday 3:30 am
For today, I am tempted to bump up storm coverage all the way to “widespread”. However, I am only going to go to “scattered”, at least for the afternoon. I may change my mind in my afternoon update.
Models are showing a huge leap in dewpoint and PWAT values late afternoon. CAPE (available energy for storm formation) peaks between 5 pm and 9 pm. Enough for widespread evening and night storms. Again, I will see where we are at this afternoon before making that official.
For this weekend, at the moment, I see a return to “isolated with bullseyes”. However, it could change, and if we get hit overnight, there will be plenty of residual moisture to work with.
Here was my prognostication yesterday morning: “I am leaning towards scattered coverage today; however, I think I will stick with isolated showers. I will add that in the areas that do get a storm overhead, heavy rain will be possible. So it’s still hit-or-miss, but the hits could be big bullseyes!”
West and East were the big winners yesterday! I am going to start with a couple of email reports:
Rd 37.8 5 mi NW of Mancos: 1.25″
Chicken Creek Road 41, just above Bauer Lake: 1.25″
Hesperus Leaning Oak Dr: 1.01″ (as of 5 pm Thurs)
Mayday: 0.33″
DWG Command Center: 0.27
Here are the station-generated reports:
West
Rd 38.7: 1.48″
Co Rd H: 0.21″
160: 0.31″
ROAD 42 RANCH: 0.60″
East Mancos: 0.38″
CO-140: 0.67″
S Elk Rn: 0.79″
N Rd: 0.43″
Mountain Top Rd: 0.95″
Thunderbird Rd: 0.40″
East (Pagosa area)
Cactus Dr: 0.40″
Backcountry Dr: 0.35″
Scenic Ave: 0.29″
Glen Eaton Dr: 0.70″
County Road 107: 0.28″
Wilderness Dr: 0.43″
Holiday Ave: 0.25″
Kelseya Cir: 0.29″
Wildwood Dr: 0.30″
Majestic Dr: 0.55″
Brookhill Dr: 0.34″
Rainbow Dr: 0.74″
W Log Hill Rd: 0.37″
Harman Ave: 0.69″
Central
Co Rd 502: 0.21″
The end. Nothing south or north!
I am going to do a better job of capturing the radar images today. The afternoon update will be after 2 pm.
8/20/26 Thursday 4:00 am
For today’s forecast, I am torn between a couple of options. The dewpoints are still not where I would like to see them. But the European model shows better coverage, with slightly higher PWATs from yesterday. Additionally, higher CAPE values are expected this afternoon; this indicates the model expects increased instability, which will fuel thunderstorm development.
I am leaning towards scattered coverage today; however, I think I will stick with isolated showers. I will add that in the areas that do get a storm overhead, heavy rain will be possible. So it’s still hit-or-miss, but the hits could be big bullseyes!
Yesterday, I reviewed precipitation coverage after forecasting isolated showers across the forecast area. Isolated showers mean 10%- 20% of the forecast area would be affected.
That is reflected in yesterday’s totals (until midnight). I have not changed the criteria; the threshold is still >0.20 inches.
Sorry if this is difficult to read. I spent too much time formatting this list, and I still could not fix it. It was fine, but when I started adding email totals, it started inserting breaks.
Central:
Bayfield Garnet Wy 0.26″
Co Rd 501 Vallecito 0.89″
Coolwater 0.49″
Pinetree Dr 0.29″
Upper Forest Lakes 0.30″
Lake Simpatico 0.52″
Meadowbrook Dr 0.36″
Pine River Ranch Circle 0.22″
Old Cortez Trail 0.31″
Hawks Meadow Dr 0.43″
Co Rd 502 0.56″
Elk Meadow Rd 0.25″
CR 334 0.33″
Bellflower Rd 0.515″
Tecalote 0.34″
Encantado Ct 0.25″
Sage Hill Weather 0.45″
Box Canyon Farm 0.33″
Hillcrest 0.25″
Timberline 0.21
Aspen Dr 0.27″
Junction St 0.26″
Burnett Haul Rd 0.22″
White Water Dr 0.34″
US Hwy 550 @ Bell Canyon 0.22″
North
Lakewood Dr 1.03″
Spruce Mesa Dr 0.50″
West, South, and East: None
Here was the radar at the time
I show this so you can match some of the totals to the bullseyes.
8/19/26 2:oo pm
Latest radar.
I already got a couple of reports in my email, but I spot-checked a few locations, and several came in just below the 0.20 threshold. A couple had 0.30″-0.60″! So we will have a few totals to cover in the morning. Dewpoints around the area are up about 10 degrees, which is a good sign.
I wasn’t too crazy about the Euro late morning run, but I will wait until I see the overnight models in the morning to worry, or cheer…
8/19/26 Wednesday 4:30 am
Today, isolated showers will favor higher elevations. As always, you can’t rule out an afternoon pop-up shower anywhere.
Yesterday I said this regarding storm development: “Thursday’s chances will be higher than Wednesday’s. Friday’s chance will be higher than Thursday’s, and so on. Dewpoints finally climb into ‘the zone’ by late Thursday or early Friday.”
That is still the case this morning. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are rising and will continue to rise today and every day through the weekend. However, we have a lot of dry air in place, and the dewpoints are rising, just not fast enough to produce widespread showers. Higher elevations can produce storms with lower PWAT and dewpoints, so they will be favored for precipitation development.
The European shows some of those storms drifting off the mountains today.
You have to weight the darker green values over the light green in this transitional environment. Without higher dewpoints and PWAT, some of those showers indicated by the light green will not make it to the ground without a “top-down” saturation.
Today, isolated showers will favor higher elevations. As always, you can’t rule out an afternoon pop-up shower anywhere.
For the rest of the week, tomorrow, scattered showers will be on tap across the forecast area. Friday, it looks like widespread showers will be the forecast. Saturday and Sunday: shower chances increase to likely.
What do those terms actually mean? Good idea; I have not gone through that in a while!
The term “coverage” is used when forecasting showers. Percentages indicate the percentage of coverage (of the forecast area).
Isolated: 10%-20% (of the forecast area)
Scattered: 30%-50%
Widespread: 60%-70%
Likely: 80%-100%
Reach out if you have some rain this afternoon-not 6 drops, but enough that if you stood outside, you would get wet. If something happens before 2 pm, I will post an afternoon update.
8/18/26 Tuesday 4:30 am
Once again, not a lot to talk about today, but things are going to change soon. Precipitable Water Values will remain 90-100% of the average for this time of year.
Later tonight, those values will tick up slightly to around 110%. They will continue to increase on Wednesday into the 120-130%+. By Friday, those values will climb to 150% of average.
What this means is tomorrow’s precipitation chances (POP’s) will increase for afternoon thunderstorms. You know the drill: Thursday’s chances will be higher than Wednesday’s. Friday’s chance will be higher than Thursday’s, and so on. Dewpoints finally climb into “the zone” by Thursday or early Friday.
That pattern will remain in place for about 5 days as models show another short-term dry period beginning Tuesday or Wednesday (8/25- 8/26).
8/17/26 Monday 4:30 am
Yep, boring. Today and tomorrow hold just a slight chance of high-elevation afternoon storms. Wednesday is starting to look more interesting on the European model, not so much on the others.
It looks like we will see a trough drop in from the NW. If this comes together, it should bump the high further east so we get some moisture to fuel more widespread storms. There are some indications that we could flip this temporary pattern from dry to wet again by next weekend.
I keep looking at the extended models. The 46-day model, which takes us through the end of September, shows seasonally average precipitation totals and seasonally average temperatures.
As I said, boring. But I am monitoring the situation.
