Friday Night: Travel Alert

On By durangoweatherguy

11/13/26 Friday 3 pm

This should be fun in the snow; I don’t think this will be possible. I think they may have to close the pass tomorrow.

News From:
Colorado Department of Transportation logo
Nov. 13, 2026
Adair Christensen
Regional Communications Specialist

CDOT Update (11/13/26 at 3 p.m.)
Additional Weekend Travel Impacts:

Motorists traveling over US 160 Wolf Creek Pass this weekend will encounter up-to 20 minute delays and 24/7 single-lane alternating traffic guided by pilot vehicles approximately 6 miles east of Pagosa Springs (MP 151). Geo-technical engineers have been monitoring an embankment failure along the eastbound lanes in this area which has shown recent signs of growth. Motorists will be guided by pilot vehicles around the road damage Saturday morning through Monday morning. Site engineers are maintaining continuous 24/7 surveillance; officials caution that a sudden, complete closure for traffic between the Wolf Creek Summit and Pagosa Springs may be necessary if movement accelerates or the road surface becomes unsafe.

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Friday Afternoon: Model Spread and Forecasts

On By durangoweatherguy

11/13/26 Friday 10 am

Before I get started, a refresher on the precipitation maps may be needed.

Map Navigation Aids

T=Telluride, C=Cortez, M=Mancos, D=Durango, B=Bayfield, P=Pagosa, WC= Wolf Creek

One more thing: a couple of locations are often misidentified; my map provider was contacted by the US Forest Service to add these two locations.

First, a clean map:

Often misidentified locations:

Before my map nerds say anything, their placement was off when they added these two locations. I talked to them about it a couple of years back, and they blamed the misplacement on the USFS. I am sharing these because the Ranger District office is often identified as Bayfield proper, but it is west of that.

Back To The Storm

All the models are showing higher totals for this weekend’s storm. RRFS shows the snow level dropping from approximately 9,500 ft to 8,200 ft, from west to east after 4 am.

This is better than what we were looking at this morning. I am not so sure that it alleviates the concerns over Vallecito/Los Pinos; I will leave that to the locals and Hydro people.

Rain and snow showers are forecast to spread into the forecast area after 8 pm tonight. Keep in mind, many times, the models are a little too fast with precipitation start times.

Rain totals will vary, mostly by elevation.  Totals will range from 0.40″ at the lowest elevations to 1.00+” at mid elevations below 8,000 ft.

Here are the liquid precipitation maps

Hi-Res RRFS (which I shared earlier)

NOAA Hi-Res NBM

European

Snow Totals

This storm is a SW Flow storm. Telluride will not be as favored for this storm, nor will Ouray. With snow levels hovering at or just above 8,000 feet, it will not bring much snow to the mid-elevations.

A week from now, if everything comes together as models predict, snow will fall at all elevations, and it could be substantial if they are correct.

Telluride in town: 2 to 4 inches

Mayday, Lake Purgatory,  Castle Rock area, Silverton: 4 to 6 inches

Purgatory: 6 to 9 inches

Coal Bank, Molas Passes: 8 to 12 inches

Wolf Creek: 10 to 14 inches.

Tomorrow morning I will pivot to the other storms!

 

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OOOps Donation info

On By durangoweatherguy

I didn’t catch this earlier, but about a week ago, I must have accidentally deleted information from my update template.

Thanks to those of you who let me know, I should have noticed it earlier; it explains the declining donations, lol!

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Friday Morning Update: Slight Concerns With Higher Totals

On By durangoweatherguy

11/13/26 Friday 4:30 am

I nailed my sleep last night, so I’m well rested and thinking more clearly this morning than yesterday.

Yesterday I talked about the RRFS model. I said that model has everything I need in its core to help me produce better forecasts in our highly varied terrain.

As far as I can see, past model runs from the RRFS were, and still are, producing more precipitation from the Saturday storm than the other models.

I am also seeing higher snow levels at the start of the storm than the other models. The RRFS shows rain up to the 9,500 ft level until about 8 am tomorrow.

I know what you’re thinking, so let me say that, at the moment, I see no evidence of widespread flooding. However, there is one area I am concerned about: Los Pinos below Vallecito. With the active (apparent) release still taking place, I hope there is no complacency going into tomorrow’s underforecasted storm.

As I said when we were dealing with the flooding, I am not a hydro guy; the residents along the rivers have helped better educate me on local nuances.

But here is the RRFS total liquid precipitation forecast accumulation by 8 am tomorrow.

Zoomed in

If you look at the NE portion of La Plata County, you can see bullseyes up to an inch above Vallecito in roughly 4-6 hours. If that is manageable, that is great. But I hope the right people aren’t counting on less precipitation, as most models have been showing all week. But as I said earlier, the other models seem to be increasing their totals run by run to catch up with the RRFS.

There is a bullseye in the La Plata as well, which should not affect the Animas, but it may raise the levels of its tributaries. However, the snow level will lower earlier over the La Platas than the NE part of the county.

So I am not sending out a panic call here, but I would say those living along these creeks should continue to be vigilant.

This is a perfect place for me to stop, as I am running a little behind schedule on the home front. My afternoon update will be out before 2 pm.

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Thursday Afternoon: Model Takes On Saturday Storm

On By durangoweatherguy

11/12/26 Thursday Noon

Thanks to those of you who pointed out that in the morning’s post, I accidentally referred to the top right of one of the maps when I meant the top left. I told you I was running low on fuel while I was writing.

For the first time in a while, I am leaving the GFS and European out of the model lineup in this post. The European in particular had some crazy ideas about the next three storms.

It showed the highest totals for the storms in the last several runs. But then, for the last storm, it somehow showed SW Flow into our area while showing SSE flow into the Front Range. Then it found a cold clipper system to drag over the area, bringing low-elevation snow for Thanksgiving Eve and Day. HMMMM.

I am still going to concentrate on this first storm through Friday; then, on Saturday morning, I will spend more time on the other two.

Liquid-equivalent precipitation total for Saturday’s storm.

Canadian

German

NOAA NBM

RRFS

This is a “new” NOAA model that officially went live today. In reality, it has been available in experimental mode for months. This model seems almost designed for our forecast area’s complex, varied terrain with very high resolution. I did use it when forecasting both floods.

This one came out of the gate swinging! These forecast totals are for Saturday only.

If this model is correct, we are going to get a lot more than we bargained for. It also indicates snow levels starting at 9,500 ft, then dropping to 8,000 ft a couple of hours into the storm.

Here is its snow forecast for Saturday

So if correct, this is a big change from what other models and forecasters are expecting.

Next update Friday morning, unless I see something come out this afternoon that backs up this model’s higher totals.

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Thursday Morning Update: Breaking Down The Weekend Storm

On By durangoweatherguy

11/12/26 Thursday 4:30 am

I have been concentrating on the bigger picture the last few days; it’s time to slow down and focus on the upcoming weekend.

Overview

Friday night, a small but moist closed low will come onshore near San Diego. This is subtropical moisture, so a little goes a long way. As the low moves east into Arizona and eventually New Mexico, just enough moisture will reach our area.

While this is happening, a monster low-pressure system that has been tormenting the  Canadian West Coast areas will drop down the California Coast. This system is intense. The models show this system’s internal pressure at 960 mb.  That is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.  Extremely cold Arctic air is entrained in this monster; it is showing heights down to 516 mb.

I was not planning on showing this, but I downloaded the images already so I could zoom in and see them better, so here we go.

That system is at the top right of the page.

Then I zoomed in on the system to double-check the intensity.

If you recall my post a week ago about snow levels, I explained the snow-level cheat codes based on millibars and elevations. In that same discussion, I talked about snow levels based on “thickness” levels. I will post a link to it at the end of this post.

In the above image, you see the first blue line, then 4 more. The first one is 540 mb; the next is 534 mb, then 528 mb, 522 mb then 516 mb. This indicates polar air being brought down from the Arctic.

Here is where all of this comes back to our area this weekend. That system will moderate as it approaches Northern California, but it is so huge that it will push cold air into our area and mix with the subtropical moisture from the earlier-mentioned small closed low to produce snow, with a 552 mb thickness level indicating snow at or above 8,000-8,500 feet.

How much? Not much according to the latest model runs… The passes will likely see 4-8 inches of snow. Below the snow levels, the lower elevations will see rain in the 0.50-inch range;  this could change, so I am keeping a close eye on any changes in the precipitation totals

Obviously, I got distracted by that monster system, which long-time followers know means I did not get much sleep. Oh well.

I will be back around noon or 1:00 pm. The El Niño update is coming out today; it should be interesting. I will try not to get too distracted by it.

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Link to: Thursday Update: Winter Weather Series Millibars And Elevations

Wednesday Afternoon Update: Saturday Snow and Rain

On By durangoweatherguy

11/11/26 Wednesday Noon

Overview

A couple more dry days before storm #1 rolls in. It still looks like the (all) snow level will hover between 8,000 and 8,500 feet. Cold rain will fall at lower elevations, with temps in the 30s. As of now, the first storm looks like the least impactful of the three. It doesn’t mean it won’t produce; it just means it will be less than the other two that look likely.

Storm #2 is supposed to arrive from Tuesday through Wednesday. It has some colder air at the end of the storm that may drive the snow levels down to the low-elevation areas.

Storm #3’s expected to arrive early Friday the 20th. It could be very impactful. Models show snow at all elevations for most of the 48 hours before it leaves the area.

Those of you holding a big get-together for Thanksgiving may want to buy most of your pantry and frozen items before Tuesday’s storm, because you know how it gets when the media starts talking up these storms and the Watches and Warnings are posted.

Plus, if this develops like I am seeing, the passes will likely close during and after the third storm. This could delay deliveries to our grocery stores. Also, those of you who rely on snow tires in the winter should probably just do it and not wait like everyone else. You are going to need them this winter anyway; might as well get it done before the rush.

I shared one model run last night showing the three storm snow totals. I want to pivot to liquid-equivalent three-storm totals.

European- it’s been pretty consistent with its totals for several runs.

GFS-The GFS is redeeming itself; this is a good-looking run from the GFS!

GFS AI- This would translate to several feet of snow in the La Platas and Wolf Creek; this crazy run would indicate 5 to 7 feet of snow for Wolf Creek from the three storms!

That’s it for the 14/15 day models. Tomorrow we should be able to look at the Canadian model (it’s a 10-day model). By the weekend, we will be able to add 3 or 4 more models, which will really beef up my confidence in these storms.

Next update Thursday morning.

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Wednesday Morning Update: Wet Weekend Back On?

On By durangoweatherguy

11/11/26 Wednesday 5:30 am

Overview

No immediate weather to talk about

I had originally targeted 11/14-11/15 as the beginning of the pattern change. I described a storm that would move into Arizona and New Mexico, “missing us to the south.”

That closed low is still coming onshore on Friday, but recent model runs show it tracking further north. Not a big storm, but it could bring 0.50-1.00 inches of liquid. The snow level is predominantly between 8,000 and 9,000 feet. If the models are correct, we could see a slow start Saturday morning, increasing throughout the day and quickly moving out of the area by Sunday morning. This would be the first mid-elevation shot of measurable snow (not just flurries).

If all goes to plan, next week we would see another fairly weak impulse coming through on Tuesday 11/17. Then the larger storm on 11/20 delivering snow to the lower elevations.

Last night, I shared the model’s interpretation of “a perfect storm.” What we won’t know for a few days is if we will see that big perfect storm, or just another smaller storm.

Either way, as I said, which I realize is confusing, I could make a case for either scenario. What I was trying to get across is that I believe there is a high percentage chance of a low-elevation snow-level event on 11/20-11/21; I just can’t judge the intensity yet.

Next update around 1 pm.

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Tuesday PM: Interesting Take?

On By durangoweatherguy

11/10/26 Tuesday 5 pm

I shouldn’t post this, but with this boring weather, I see models predicting an impactful pre-Thanksgiving, pre-Purgatory open storm. Huddle: It could change, for sure. But I hope that if it does, it either misses us or stays the same with low snow levels. We don’t want to deal with that much again.

Snowfall through November 24, according to this Euro run.

What am I supposed to do? Not share? Well, it will change-probably; I feel equally it could be a lot less or a lot more, a lot bigger storm. I am trying to narrow it down. I share all of this because I am in posting withdrawal.

Plus, worst-case-scenario moments: it seems like when mass amounts of people have to travel,  HS sports, holidays, doctor appointments in other cities, kids driving back to college. This is when the storms target us. Ridiculous. But a dependable forecast parameter.

The smartest scientist credential guy I have ever known, I believe, lives in London now with his brilliant wife and kids. They  used to follow me until they moved; I call him a friend; he called me a “scientist.” Sorry, what a huge snub to all of the real Scientists…

I drop that because I have heard people are referring to me as a Meteorologist. NOPE. Just a lifelong weather nerd lacking the discipline 40 years ago to earn that degree. Pretty sure things are getting interesting without the danger.

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Tuesday Update

On By durangoweatherguy

11/10/26 Tuesday 5 am

On Sunday I said this:

“If we believe the models, we may see a pattern change first affecting the West Coast around November 12th. By a week from today(11/15), moisture is expected to move into Arizona and New Mexico, mostly missing us, but another storm is on its heels that looks more promising. All models show this, though timing varies.”

What has changed:

The “mostly missing us moisture” moisture comes ashore 24 hours later, in the form of a cut-off low-pressure system entrained with a moderate amount of moisture.

It is going to dig further south, missing us, as expected. But not before paving the way.

Saturday morning: missed us.

Saturday morning: next system with moisture tap

Saturday afternoon (most likely will not arrive that quickly)

Zoomed-pretty juicy. Saturday afternoon (I think the timing will change). Snow level indicated at 8,000 feet.

Sunday morning (timing will likely change).

Fast forward to Monday night, November 16th. A much bigger storm with several pieces is on the way. I put the maps in motion; it’s easier to track. This is basically the week, from Monday night 11/16 to Sunday morning 11/22.

Zoomed-in version

Important to note that a lot can change in the details, timing, track, and intensity, as you should know. However, I do believe the pattern is changing. If the above monster verifies, we would snow in the lower elevations.

Probably a good time to stop. Normally, I wouldn’t share this much this far out, but the boring weather pattern is getting to me, and I wanted to let you know changes are likely, especially with ski areas opening soon and possible holiday travel.

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