8/11/26 Tuesday 3:45 am

Good morning. A few locations got some rain yesterday above our 0.20 threshold yesterday. Others exceeded after midnight, so they will be on tomorrow’s list.

At 4: 00 a.m., most locations have dewpoints reading between 45 and 50 degrees. Yesterday’s model runs said we would see a push up in dewpoints above 50 degrees by this afternoon. We’ll see.

PWAT values are currently 115 to 130. PWATs, dewpoints, and sunny conditions late morning into early afternoon are the fuel to get storms developing (convection).

Here is the radar this morning. Some interesting convection is already trying to fire off this morning.

5:00 am

Here is the list of yesterday’s rain totals.

West NR (no stations reporting> 0.20″)

South NR

East

Pagosa Harman Ave: 0.54″

Central 

3 miles North of Elmores corner: 2.00″ (Human report.)

West Bayfield: 0.55″

Jim in Bayfield: 0.29″

Tecalote: 0.55″

Box Canyon Farm: 0.32″

North NR

I saw a monster total near Hermosa, but it must be incorrect, so I skipped over it. 3.58″ can’t be correct. If it is correct and it’s your weather station, email me!

When we are under monsoonal-like flow, the forecast is usually the same every day:

Thunderstorms and showers will start first over the higher terrain between 11:00 am and 2:00 pm; showers will drift off the mountains over the mid-elevations and adjacent valleys after 2 pm. Some showers may continue or refire in the evening.

That is a generic, typical forecast for this time of year; if I see something different in the morning model runs, I will always let you know.

Here is what it looks like-this is 9 am this morning through 6 am Wednesday.

Everything still looks good for this week. It still looks like a short break for Saturday and Sunday with showers and thunderstorms returning next Monday.

That’s all for now. I will check back in the afternoon after reviewing the morning model runs.

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8.10/26 Monday 1:30 pm

So far, showers and thunderstorms are developing mostly outside of our forecast area.

Dewpoints are slightly higher, generally between 40 and 44 degrees. The further south you look, the higher they are.

Sounds like a good lead-in to put the dewpoint maps in motion. This is now through Thursday morning.

I know it’s tough to watch the map and the time simultaneously, but they show a definitive increase by tomorrow afternoon.

Might as well follow up with PWAT anomalies. These are expressed as a percentage above average for this time period. PWAT is simply the amount of moisture available to produce showers and thunderstorms.

I am not a big fan of talking about the pause in the flow before it starts, but some people may like what I am seeing-dryer on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday during the day, with moisture returning Monday night.

That is all I have for now. I will post again tomorrow morning.

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8/10/26 Monday 3:00 am

Ughh, challenging night. Today my goal for this post is to not ramble and head down the rabbit hole like I usually do when I am tired!

The European model verified with dewpoints across the region; they are 10 points higher than 24 hours ago, but still just below that 50-degree threshold I like to see.

For today, there will be a slight uptick in shower coverage for this afternoon. I will be tracking the dewpoints and radar today. I will be posting at least one more time today. Models indicate a large uptick in dew point by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, models are forecasting some 6o+ degree dewpoints in the lower elevations. This will lead to slightly cooler temps.

As I said yesterday, the European model is shifting moisture flow to the east over the Front Range by the weekend. That differs from the GFS, so I will keep an eye on it. So far this season, the European has been more accurate with monsoonal flow.

In a nutshell, nothing has changed since Sunday morning.

More later…

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8/9/26 Sunday 4 am

Yesterday I was surprised to see so much afternoon convection blooming over the higher terrain.

We will most likely see that again today. The only station reporting any precipitation yesterday was Rico. It did not hit the minimum threshold of 0.20″, receiving only 0.13″

Monday’s precipitation chances increase over today.  Tuesday’s precipitation chances increase over Monday, etc., etc., etc., through Friday.

On Saturday, residual moisture from the week will keep afternoon showers in the forecast. However, at the moment, it looks like drier air will begin to filter in Saturday evening as the models appear to be shifting monsoonal flow to the east, likely across the Front Range.

During the 15 years I lived in Denver (prior to moving to Durango in 2008), we referred to the afternoon showers as “It Pours at Four.”

My next update will be on Monday.

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8/07/26 Friday 4:00 am

The biggest surprise since my last post is that I have not gotten any emails from followers in 3 days. This tells me boring weather syndrome is in full effect. I confirmed it by looking at my page stats. After a great July when my traffic was up 85%, the first week of August is showing a 35% decline so far. The lack of emails tells me that despite the heat, followers know it is just temporary.

It is; we could be adding in a slight chance of showers by Sunday afternoon. That seems a little overconfident by the model. I was expecting that to be the case for Monday, with heavier afternoon showers expected to start on Tuesday and increase throughout the week.

This reminds me that 10 days ago, when we were tracking the pattern flip from wet to our current dry pattern, then back to wet.  The models showed moisture flow returning on August 11th. I posted this on July 28th. If we do make that flip to wet, and I think we will, this would be a big win for the European model from 10 days out!

Since we had success using those parameters before, I see no reason to change our methods.

So here we go,  back to the PWATs. As a reminder, PWAT refers to the amount of moisture available to fall as precipitation in any particular area. That is a loose definition, but my brain is running a little slow, so I don’t feel like getting technical.

I need to put on the brakes here before I ramble down the rabbit hole…

Here are the PWAT anomaly values starting tomorrow. The number correlates to the percentage of the average for that particular day.

Just a reminder, our wettest 3-month period of the year is August, September, October. Which means it’s more difficult to get a positive anomaly in already historically wet months.

Next up, regional dewpoint progression. We are looking for that old-school 50-degree mark. It does vary throughout the day because flow increases in the afternoon. That top right of the frame shows time and date. We are looking for the values at 00z (6 pm Mountain).

Just a reminder, the higher the elevation, the lower the dewpoint, so storms can fire up with much lower values.

I am going to skip posting on Saturday (unless something crazy shows up). I will post again on Sunday.

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8/5/26 Wednesday 6:30 am

“Weeklies” refers to the extended version of the weather models. It is called that because this coveted model run used to come out once a week. They are likely going to have to change the name because now they run daily.

Today I will cover the latest run. I am not going to extend the full six weeks. I am just going to get us through the end of August. We are going to revisit the precipitation anomalies.

Week One: This is a partially trailing run, because it is for Monday 8/3 through Monday 8/10. That is why you see a negative anomaly.

Week Two: Through 8/17, you can see we flip to positive anomalies. Reminder: this is not total precipitation; instead it shows the amount of precipitation above average for this time period of the year.

Week Three: Through 8/24, you still see a slight positive anomaly.

Week Four: Through 8/31, this is similar to the prior run.

Before you get worried about the decrease in the last two runs, keep in mind August is our wettest month, so it is more difficult to produce a positive anomaly in an already historically wet month.

I am not going to be able to post tomorrow. In the meantime, we have some time to kill until the pattern flips early next week. So if you have a topic you want me to address. Let me know; I will choose the most requested topic.

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8/4/26 Tuesday 4:30 am

Historically, the onset of the monsoon in Arizona was determined by a simple parameter. Three consecutive days with a dew point at or above 55 degrees.  In Phoenix, this usually occurred between late May and early June. It was simple to understand.

As the story goes, NWS offices in Albuquerque, Las Vegas, El Paso, and Flagstaff had concerns because they could still get active storms with a dew point below 55 degrees. Something we are well aware.

For years on this blog, I have championed the saying: “Sometimes, it just snows,” meaning just because it’s snowing, it doesn’t make it a storm. Which makes me scratch my head a couple of times when I hear NWS forecasters struggle to separate a rogue thunderstorm from monsoonal flow. “Sometimes it just rains”.

Anyway, they threw out the three-day dewpoint-above-55-degrees parameter, instead assigning a start and end date to the season, much like hurricane season, which, by the way, has been a dud so far this year, which is not too bad a thing.

Did you notice I almost went down the rabbit hole, but I am course-correcting immediately. 

This happened 18 years ago. Now Monsoon Season is officially June 15th to September 30th.

Diehards like myself still like the dewpoint rule. It is also very popular still in Arizona. So I still use it to verify when we are under monsoonal flow.

So let’s use that parameter again to estimate when our rain returns. Here is the dewpoint forecast beginning this Sunday morning.

Now we can correlate dew points with the multi-parameter forecast run, beginning Sunday morning.

Both runs confirm our Monday transition back to afternoon showers with heavier showers arriving by mid-week.

My next post will be on Wednesday.

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8/3/26 Monday 4:00 am

Monday through Friday-One week from today

The latest models show moisture returning in a week, with Monday being a transition day to heavier showers next week.

I mentioned yesterday that the new long-term seasonal models (monthlies) will be out over the next couple of days.

The US model updates more frequently. Before I start the show, here is a visual aid for new folks who are not great with finding us on a map yet.  I can only do this in a regional mode. The big orange rectangle is Colorado. I did my best to highlight our forecast area within the state indicated by the smaller orange rectangle.

 

What we are going to look at is atmospheric pressure anomaly maps. When it comes to storminess, the lower the pressure, the stormier the environment. The opposite is high pressure, which we are currently under, dry and mostly clear.

The top right shows the time periods. You can see “Valid Oct/Nov/Dec 2026.” These are called seasonal maps, rather than monthlies. The graph at the bottom shows the amount of the anomaly.  It’s color-coded to help you gauge how far below average the atmospheric pressure is forecasted to be. The numbers are in meters, but that will have to be another topic of discussion.

 

I slowed these down from what I usually show. I wanted you to be able to look at the map, then glance up to the time period.

 

 

When I zoom out, you can visualize the storm track. This is a very favorable storm track for winter! Somehow, some way, some time, tomorrow will be my next post.

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8/3/26 Monday

I am not exactly sure what is going on with Sus today; the normal routine isn’t working. I have not been able to get today’s update done on time. I will be able to concentrate on it later when she naps. So it will be better late than never.

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8/2/26 Sunday 4:00 am

Well, the good sleep thing didn’t work out, but it rarely does. But hey, I got several drops of rain yesterday and some nice thunder. Actually, it was 0.03. Which is why it’s good not to rule anything out this time of year.

Yesterday, we got stuck down in the rabbit hole of why models make mistakes. Friday we talked about PWAT values, and tracking the return to moisture using that model parameter.

Today we are going back to the extended European to take a look at precipitation and precipitation anomalies through mid-September. This was another parameter I used to forecast our early July pattern change.

Starting with the weekly anomalies. This shows expected precipitation anomaly amounts above average or below average for these days.

Week one ending Friday 8/7

I am not going to analyze every slide, but this is the amount of precipitation below average that is forecasted.

Week two ending Friday, August 14th.

That gives us some framework to figure out the return to moisture. Based on this slide, the model indicates it will occur between Friday, August 7th, and Friday, August 14th.

This is interesting, because when I originally talked about this pause, models were showing August 12th for the monsoonal flow to return. Then the models got overenthusiastic for several days, and moved up the line to August 6th. Only to push it back to the timeline we are seeing now.

Enough commentary, no more rabbit holes…

Week three ending Friday, 8/21.

Week four ending Friday, 8/28.

Week five ending Friday, 9/14.

Week 6 ending Friday, 9/11.

Even small anomalies add up over time. Here is the 46 day total anomaly.

So how much rainfall is that? Here is the 46 day forecasted total, ending September 15th.

Finally, it’s a little too early to start looking at this. However, over the next 7-14 days we should see this map start filling in. Here is the 46 day snow forecast.

In the next few days, the new monthly and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and average pressure levels. That info will take us through February. My next post will be on Monday.

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