2/3/26 Tuesday 9 am

It’s a good thing I didn’t have a storm to track this week, or I wouldn’t have had time to work on it. The last 3 days have not been good, to put it mildly.

I am not going to spend too much time on this, but in hopes that some of the PD community would reach out and share tips/experiences, I thought I would mention it. Feel free to skip ahead.

The last two days, Susan has woken up frozen. For those who don’t know what that is, basically, the person can’t move. The neurological signal gets stuck in a loop. Yesterday I had to carry her to the couch, I had to feed her because she could not pick up the silverware. It took me 7 hours to get her dosed back up without overdosing her. Eventually, she snapped out of it. But it scared the hell out of her, and although I did not show it, me too.  So you all know who you are, reach out if you have any tips.

To compound the situation, My 2025 vehicle that I have put less than 3000 miles on in the last year had a completely dead battery. It could not be charged or jumped. Who knew that if you don’t drive enough, the battery can die? It had been about three weeks since we went anywhere. Between all of the grocery stores and Walmart delivering now and DoorDash, we just don’t “need” to go anywhere.

The good news is I have free roadside assistance, and everything is under warranty; they are coming to pick it up tomorrow morning. So, to my neighbors, when you see my car getting towed tomorrow, that is the reason.

On to the weather

I don’t trust the models for specific details; it is too early. However, as I am about to show you, the ridge is forecast to collapse, and anomalously low pressure will be coming through every couple of days. Low pressure often equals storms or at least colder and unsettled conditions.

I will be showing you a regional map. The warmer colors, orange and red, indicate anomalously high pressure; the blues and greens indicate anomalously low pressure.

First, for those “Cartographically Challenged,” here is your reference:

Here goes: remember, blues and greens favor storminess; orange and red indicate more of the same we have experienced lately. This is the 10-day period that starts next Monday.

I will keep watching, back in a couple of days.

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02/1/26 Sunday 5 am

Nothing to see here… Thought I better send something out, people worry when they don’t hear from me.

NYC is on track to beat the record of days below freezing. Today is day 8. The all-time record is 16 days. Models indicate 14 more days of this.

Snow flurries in Tampa this morning, 30 degrees in West Palm Beach. 8 inches of snow in Myrtle Beach, NC, with temps in the teens. 15 inches of snow in Ocean Isle Beach, NC–more than all the snow that has fallen in the lower elevations for us this entire winter in this one storm!

I admit it, despite my envy, I am watching the storm coverage vicariously. We have had years like this: when it is cold and snowy in the eastern half of the US, it’s typically dry and warm in the west. These cold temperatures in Florida are a 50-year event, for perspective.

When will it change, you ask? I don’t have concrete data I can get excited about because what I see is 10 to 12 days from now. At the moment, the GFS shows a very large storm, while the European model shows a small storm. We’ll see, I will be watching, of course. Hang in there…

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1/25/26 Sunday 3:30 am

I am going to call this a win for the lower elevations. If you received 4 to 6 inches of snow in the lower and mid-elevation areas, you are in the majority.

I have not received the top-secret report from the passes, but we already have a pretty good idea that 8 to 11 inches fell.

The biggest “disappointment” by far was Wolf Creek. I have been doing this for a while, and I can only remember saying that a couple of times when recapping a winter storm.

Wow, the ” ‘Unofficial’ Purgatory Snow Stake Conspiracy Theorists” were all emailing me about Purgatory’s 12-inch report. Remember, they say they don’t use the snow stake for measurement. My favorite was the people claiming the snowstake is AI-generated.

I am staying out of it. Although I was streaming their snow stake (as well as the others) most of the day on Friday, it appeared the snow was falling harder there than in the other areas I was monitoring. That being said, it was an anomaly; regardless, this “controversy” has been going on for years, and I don’t want to be in the middle of it.

So now what?  The colder air filters in, perhaps a few flurries across the higher elevations later today and tonight.  By mid-to-late week, the ridge pops back up over the west and the warmer air returns.

The near-record cold stays in the east for 7 to 10 days, maybe longer. Then we go back to the pattern in which storm tracks ride the ridge and direct the clipper systems into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

The eastern two-thirds of the country gets everything; we get nothing (again). Eventually, the pattern will flip as La Niña warms and Neutral conditions prevail. Will it happen before the end of winter? I have no idea. But here is what the CPC said in their most recent monthly update.

 “La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least the Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.”

A wet spring would be a great ending to a dry winter. Or if it starts earlier, a few late-winter storms would be great, too!

Long-time followers have been emailing me asking if I will get a birthday storm. My birthday is early February, and historically, we seem to get a storm around that time. The GFS is currently considering it. The European is back stuck in its dry (feedback) loop for the next two weeks as the MJO retreats quickly back inside the “Circle of Weather Death.”

So we will see, as always, I will be watching and let you know as soon as I see a change coming our way.

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I’ll do a wrap-up tomorrow (Sunday), but I wanted to get this out.  ― Winter Maintenance Alert ― Motorists can expect lengthy Saturday morning delays US 550 Red Mountain Pass Crews will perform winter maintenance operations beginning at 10 a.m.

Southwest Colorado — US Highway 550 Red Mountain Pass between Silverton and Ouray will close to travel on Saturday, Jan. 24 while the Colorado Department of Transportation performs safety-critical winter maintenance operations. At 10 a.m., US 550 will fully close in both directions and motorists will be stopped for approximately two hours. Motorists should plan ahead, allow for extra travel time, or arrive and drive through the closure points before the designated closure times. Parking and recreating is prohibited between the closure points during winter maintenance operations. Backcountry users must move their vehicles and vacate the area before the scheduled closure times. Travelers should also be aware that during the winter season, snow conditions may require additional maintenance work and safety closures at any time on many southwest Colorado highways. Visit www.COtrip.org for the most current closure times and traffic impacts. Traffic Impacts Lengthy delays on US 550 Red Mountain Pass will begin at 10 a.m. on Jan. 24. Southbound travelers will encounter a closure at the Bear Creek Overlook, approximately three miles south of Ouray (Mile Point 90.9) Northbound travelers will encounter a closure near Ironton, approximately 16 miles north of Silverton (Mile Point 87.5) Motorists may consider an alternate route via CO 145 through Lizard Head Pass. This westerly route will add approximately one hour of additional driving time, taking approximately three hours to travel between Durango and Ridgway (approximately 150 miles). Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11 OR Click here to DONATE Cash App users:  $JGDWG Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions. Click here to submit a question or weather report

Apparently, some people did not get this. I am sorry, not sure what happened, but most people got it.

1/23/26 Friday 3 am

I have been up since midnight. It is amazing how many challenges can occur at this hour. Fortunately, so far, none of them has anything to do with my wife. Simple and not-so-simple computer issues, I will spare you the details.

The closed low is definitely taking its time coming on shore south of San Diego. This could have ramifications for a later start today.

The later the better at this point for snow totals. The models are insistent that this will be a major storm across most mountain areas. Purgatory is forecasted to be on the lower end of those totals.

This looks like the biggest storm of the year for Wolf Creek. Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) may reach 16:1 or higher before snow stops falling at higher elevations. Even at lower and mid elevations, SLRs will be enhanced when colder air settles in, making snow removal easier.

Main concern now is that the coldest air is trapped on the other side of the divide and to our north. This should start infiltrating the area later today, and I have to assume it will happen before the deeper moisture arrives. If it doesn’t, that would result in even lower totals. I will reassess and repost later today since the bulk of the snow is expected overnight and Saturday morning.

The models indicate potential moderate impacts for Coal Bank and Molas, major impacts for Red Mountain and Lizard Head, and likely closures for Wolf Creek.

I am going to ballpark the totals for now and will reassess later today based on what I see in the future model runs this morning. Again, for now, I am going to believe what I see in these model runs.

Wolf Creek 14 to 20 inches

Red Mountain and Lizard Head 12 to 16 inches

Telluride, Molas, and Coal Bank 10 to 14 inches

Purgatory 6 to 10 inches

Pagosa 5 to 9 inches

Mid Elevations from 7,200 – 8,200 feet, 3 to 6 inches, possibly higher anomalies for the 240 corridor, as well as Vallecito/Lemon and DVE in western Archuleta County

Durango, Mancos, and Bayfield 2 to 4 inches.

Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches below 6,500 feet south of Hwy 160.

I’ll be back…

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1/23/26 Friday 2 pm

The models did not convince me to change anything in the most recent runs. I hope they are right! I am sticking with my morning totals.

The good news is that the snow in the mountains started right on schedule. We would refer to that as”the models initialized well.”

I have been pretty clear about my concerns for the lower elevations with this storm, although most models increased the overall event totals throughout the forecast area. We’ll see.

If we don’t wake up to snow falling, it will likely mean it jumped over us, as I explained a couple of days ago. Fingers crossed that will not be the case!

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1/22/26 Thursday 3:30 am

Models took a breath and lowered the local totals for this event. All of the models are forecasting similar totals and similar time frames for this to unfold.

Expect light snow beginning on Friday morning, first in the higher elevations, then building across the lower and mid-elevations by Friday night into Saturday.

Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued for 6 to 12 inches for the mountains and 4 to 8 inches for Pagosa. Wolf Creek has an advisory for 5 to 12 inches, which is too low according to every model run I have seen.

Things that stand out to me this morning:

• Model agreement. Always good to see, unless they are all wrong.
• Lower totals east of us. That is good for us because it means the storm spends more time in our area.
• Positioning of the low pressure. Models are delaying the low coming onshore compared to 24 hours ago. This could delay the start of precipitation in our area. Also, a positive because the precipitation could start later in the day and possibly have the colder air in place before the heavier precipitation arrives.

All good stuff; however, I will wait 24 hours before posting my forecast. A lot can still go wrong.

Here are the model snow forecasts: These models forecast snow at a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio, which is the default, but it won’t apply to this storm. So if you are so inclined, add 20% to these totals in the lower elevations, and 40% at the ski areas.

Also, I am not worried about who gets missed in the lower elevations yet. There is approximately a 6 to 12 mile margin of error with these models, and they handle subtle terrain changes poorly.

European

GFS

Canadian

If there are any major changes in the late morning model runs, I will post. If not, I will issue my forecast in the morning.

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1/21/26 Wednesday 2:30 am

Believe it or not, these types of storm setups are more difficult to forecast for our area than they are further to our east. Which is interesting because it has to go through us to get to them. Timing on this event is still to be determined, but it is likely to get underway sometime on Friday through Saturday or Sunday.

If I were seeing this storm dissipating or dying after it leaves our area, I would be much, much more confident in our forecast. But at the moment the models are showing a storm where everyone gets in on the action. That rarely happens.

What does historic mean? If I saw correctly, the all-time record for snowfall in Nashville is just under 18 inches…

As I said, it is easier to forecast for the South Central Plains than for us. So I am just going to put this out there. Travel will be impossible across most of Oklahoma and northern Texas.

If you think you are going to drive a route that takes you across eastern New Mexico and Oklahoma, it won’t happen. Arkansas? Forget about it.

If you are planning on airtravel that takes you anywhere in or out of Oklahoma, it isn’t going to happen. Thousands of flights are going to get cancelled during this storm. Nashville, potentially Memphis, and Dallas will likely also see major impacts this weekend. Kentucky, Virginia, DC, watchout.

I had to use a different snow output model to reflect the colder air.

This is the event snowfall in inches.

Going forward, I won’t be posting maps for what happens to the rest of the US, but I wanted to get it out there for those thinking they are going to be traveling that direction.

 

So what about us? That is the multi-million dollar question. My concerns are from my past experiences with these types of storms. When they telegraph their intentions for areas east of us so boldly, we have seen the energy from these systems go by us so quickly that we mostly get missed in the lower elevations.

That said, there is potential for an NW flow component on the backside of this storm, bringing a lot of low-density, very high-ratio snow to the Northern and NW San Juans.

Assuming everything comes together for us, a lot of snow could fall for everyone. Hopefully, you did not skip over everything just to see these maps. I have very low confidence in these totals for our area. So why show them? Just to show you what would be possible in a near perfect set up. This is snow in inches.

This setup shows the cold air arriving at the perfect time, and the moisture and primary and secondary energy sticking around long enough. If that happens, these totals would be too low by 50-100%.

Again, my confidence level is not high for our area, but very high that a major winter storm will result in a huge travel mess east of Colorado.

Stay tuned. For now, I am not going to be able to give anyone solid advice on traveling in SW Colorado.

I just noticed I forgot to put the “D” and “T” on the maps. I don’t have time to fix that right now, but I will include it in the future.

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1/19/25 Monday 3 am

It was not my intention to go so long without posting. It’s been a rough week. I need to come to terms with the fact that I cannot plan on anything in the future, or schedule anything. My life is only predictable about 4 hours into the future on any given day if I am lucky.

Enough of that, I will figure it out. Based on some of the emails I am getting, people have not been watching the national weather. If you haven’t been following it, the warm, dry weather we have been experiencing is affecting only about a third of the US.

Snow in Alabama yesterday, snow in Florida yesterday. Moderate snow in Georgia. This is the second winter in a row that snow has fallen in these areas. Before last winter it had been in the mid-1950s since this happened in Florida .

Models show a big snow and ice event next weekend evolving out of the remnants of a storm that may (or may not) affect us by later this week. The likely track would be across New Mexico, into Northern Texas, and across the Gulf States, then up the east coast (again).

I am going to be very cautious with this one for our area, because at this point, I see a lot that can go wrong with this storm. It is already showing telltale signs that it could miss us. However, if everything goes right, it would likely have its biggest impacts across the southern portions of the forecast area.

Here is where the country is at as of now.

Let’s continue with “the big picture” for now and look at the whole country.

Tuesday night

Thursday Morning

Friday Morning- Closed low now on shore, trying to tap moisture. Arctic air expands

Regional view Friday morning through Sunday morning.

Friday morning state view

High pressure finally drives out the warmer air on the west slope. Notice how moisture starved the storm is at the point

If this verified it would deposit 5 to 15 inches of fluffy snow across the forecast area. Obviously, things will change between now and next weekend.

As I said a lot can go wrong  between now and then. Be diligent, stay tuned, don’t panic, don’t bet the farm on it. I will be tracking it.

I haven’t put together the MJO part 2 post yet. However, things are happening.

Here is the European models forecast. Notice the MJO is finally active, out of the circle of weather death, and up in phase 6.

The numbers on the dotted line correspond to the date, The black line is the past, the redline is current. Notice the “20” on the red line? That is where the MJO is tomorrow. It then shoots through phase 7 (which is good, phase 7 is not favorable for us). Then into phase 8.

We have not been in phase 8 since the last time we had snow. All you need to know is phase 8, 1, and 2 are where we want to be if we want cold and snow.

Here is what it looks like when we hit phase 8 on Saturday.

As we go into these phases “favorable” is the key word. Phases 8,1 and 2, are favorable for winter weather here, but it does not guarantee it.

At some point, I will be able to get into the phases in more detail, but I wanted to show you briefly how it works since I have been talking about it for so long.

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1/11/26 Sunday 8 am

What a great storm! Yes, seriously! Well, not for most people in the forecast area; however, if you were “under the enhancement,” you were very happy!

Most reports were 5 to 12 inches across the south and southeast portions of the forecast area. Farmington did very well with 8+ inches reported. Across the south, the highest totals were east of 550 and south of 160. One of the least snowy areas in the forecast area.

Up north, Ouray won with a reported total of 19 inches.

We are going to go back to warmer drier conditions as winter returns to the eastern half of the US (again) and there will be very little to talk about the next few days.

I am going to take a few days and do two things:

1: Attempt to figure out what to expect for the rest of the winter. La Niña is collapsing. Latest ENSO models show us moving into the neutral phase (La Nada if you prefer). Historically, our area experiences its most precipitous periods during the neutral stages.

2: Finish my MJO discussion. I will repost the first discussion immediately prior to releasing part 2.

It should be towards the end of the week.

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