Saturday 5:00 am

The water situation was restored around 2- 3:00 a.m. Since then, we have had several power disruptions. I hope they are done! Not great for getting rest!

Here is the latest list. Remember. When you select your closest location, there is a notes section. So if you are in Durango and you live in Crestview, you select Durango and type in Crestview or near Fairgrounds or whatever you like. I am hoping to have this up and running by Monday.

BTW, I still have not figured out the 228/502 situation yet; I am working on it.

Please read carefully:

Highway 550 North / Animas Valley:

Bakers Bridge

Cascade Village

Dalton Ranch

Electra Lake

Falls Creek Ranch

Glacier Club

Hermosa

Needles / Castle Rock area

Purgatory / Village

Rockwood

Trimble Crossing

Highway 160 West / Canyons:

CR 125

Cherry Gulch / Terlun

Durango Ridge Ranch

Durango West 1

Durango West 2

Lake Durango

Lightner Creek

Mayday

North Hesperus

Rafter J / Wildcat Canyon

Shenandoah

Trappers Crossing

Twin Buttes

In-Town Durango & Mesas:

Animas City / North Main

Downtown Durango / In-Town

Escalante

Florida Mesa

Fort Lewis College Mesa

Hillcrest

SkyRidge

Three Springs

Turtle Lake

East County & Pine River Corridor:

Bayfield (In-Town)

Deer Valley

Edgemont Highlands

Edgemont Meadows

Edgemont Ranch

Gem Village

Lemon Reservoir area

Lower Durango Hills

Lower Forest Lakes

Pine River Ranches

Tecolote

Timberdale

Tween Lakes

Upper Durango Hills

Upper Forest Lakes

Vallecito Lake

South County & Valleys:

Airport area

Allison / Arboles

Bondad

Breen

Grandview

Ignacio / Sky Ute area

Oxford

Rancho Durango

South Hesperus

Sunnyside Farms

Surrounding Colorado Towns:

Cortez

Dolores

Mancos

Ouray

Pagosa Springs

Rico

Ridgway

Silverton (In-Town)

Telluride (In-Town / Mountain Village)

Northern New Mexico:

Aztec

Chama

Other / Unlisted Neighborhood (with custom text box)

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Friday later-

Did anyone get notified about this??

”

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Friday night.

Does anyone know why I suddenly have no water out of the faucets, zero- nothing anywhere: sinks, toilets. All of my utilities are on autopay… It was fine all day now nothing, on a Friday evening?? This is horrible…

If you know something, let me know.

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10/2/26 Friday 1 pm

As mentioned this morning, I’m building a dedicated, streamlined reporting page so we can automatically log, track, and archive our storm totals without losing reports in email threads.

To make sure nobody gets left out, here is the draft list of neighborhoods and areas for the new dropdown menu:

• Highway 550 North / Animas Valley: Purgatory / Village, Cascade Village, Electra Lake, Glacier Club / Tamarron, Needles / Castle Rock area, Hermosa / Animas Valley, Falls Creek Ranch, Dalton Ranch.

• Highway 160 West / Canyons: Durango West 1, Durango West 2, Hesperus / Mayday / La Plata Canyon, Trappers Crossing, Rafter J / Wildcat Canyon, Shenandoah / Lake Durango, Breen / Kline / Marvel (Hwy 140).

• In-Town Durango & Mesas: Downtown Durango / In-Town, SkyRidge, Hillcrest, Animas City / North Main, Fort Lewis College Mesa, Florida Mesa (North / Sunnyside).

• East County & Reservoirs: Edgemont (Ranch / Highlands), Florida Road / Upper CR 240, Forest Lakes, Lemon Reservoir area, Vallecito Lake / CR 501, Tween Lakes / Timberdale.

• South County & Valleys: Airport area, Three Springs, Grandview, Oxford, Ignacio / Sky Ute area, Allison / Arboles.

• Surrounding Colorado Towns: Mancos, Cortez, Dolores, Bayfield, Pagosa Springs, Silverton (In-Town), Ouray, Telluride (In-Town / Mountain Village).

• Northern New Mexico: Aztec, Chama.

• Catch-All: Other / Unlisted (with custom text box).

(Note: We will always have an “Other / Unlisted” option with a text box so any road or pocket not listed can still be reported.)

Did I miss your neighborhood or primary reporting spot? Let me know in the contact link before we lock in the form this weekend!

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10/2/26 Friday 4:30 am

Thanks for all of the reports. Compiling them is going to take me a little longer than I thought. But wow, impressive totals!

However, I am going to make some long-overdue website changes. I no longer have time to go through my inbox, extract the information, organize it, rewrite it, and post it. In past big snow winters it was not unusual for me to spend hours a day during storms compiling and posting the data.

Solution: I am getting excited about this if you can’t tell. I am going to change the links so that “Submit a Weather Report” will open a page that you can fill in totals by date, with daily, weekly/storm totals etc. So all of the information will be in a standardized form.

Then, the best part, I will integrate that into the website as a searchable database for public use!

I will try to get those totals out by tomorrow. No timeline on website changes, but I hope to have it done before the next storms by mid-month.

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10/1/26 Thursday (56 days until Thanksgiving)

After spending so much time leading up to this last event, it is a real letdown to pull up the models and see nothing for the next two weeks.

The Euro is throwing up (actually, that is exactly what it is doing) a June-style high-pressure ridge.

This is a known bias model error. A week would not surprise me. But this time of year, unlike June, the northern jet gets active, and it will eventually poke its head out, dropping a couple of low-pressure systems down the West Coast.

With El Niño likely peaking over the next 6 weeks, and an active tropical East Pacific, we may see another recurve. So enjoy the drier weather; I have plenty of topics to cover, and hopefully more weather events to track soon.

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9/29/26 Tuesday 7 pm

I didn’t plan this update, but I saw 4 brand-new model runs painting 0.50″-1.50″.

We’ll see.

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9/29/26 Tuesday

Several disappointing model runs led me to wait for the latest GFS, which I just reviewed at 4 pm. I am glad I did. Fingers crossed for the afternoon Euro (6 pm to 7 pm).

The morning model runs from GFS and Euro showed precipitation totals of 0.15-0.40″, with higher amounts for Archuleta County. This does not exactly fit the flood watch narrative.

Now the GFS is showing 0.40″ to 0.90″. With higher amounts near Pagosa, and much higher amounts at WCP.

GFS could be hallucinating this run. Or they both were dead wrong this morning. Yesterday morning, reviewing the evening runs, the models showed rain all day today, Wednesday, through Thursday early morning, dropping an additional 3 inches.

The point is, they have been disappointingly off. I am going to defend them for now because of that setup, with the cold front and multiple surface lows, plus two separate tropical moisture taps affecting some of the most diverse terrain in the US. That may just be above their pay grade…

It was/is a rough afternoon, so I am not going to wait for the Euro at 6 pm.

I will be back in the morning.

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9/29/26 Tuesday 4 am-6 pm

If you read my post yesterday about right for the wrong reason, I believe that is the path we are headed down.

Yesterday afternoon, hurricane models showed the westward progression; the landfall confirmed their northern track. If everything else in the western US had stayed the same, we would have had another 1 inch of rain overnight, with heavy rain expected today and tomorrow. But it didn’t.

Last night I highlighted the impressive thunderstorm complex at the AZ/UT/NV border.

One of those low-pressure areas tapped into a dry slot, reducing our rain rates from east to west.

Bottom line: I don’t expect much activity directly from the tropical moisture tap itself today. That moisture will likely stay too far south and too far east to affect most of us. I can’t rule out a pop-up shower or three. Residual moisture could be plenty of fuel, if the sun comes out, to trigger storm development. The models are discounting that for now, for what it is worth.

Later today, the latest models show the moisture tracking back over the entire forecast area from south to north. This will likely fuel showers and potentially thunderstorms lasting most of the day on Wednesday. Then, that should be it.

I will be back in the afternoon with a model update.

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9/28/26 Monday 7-8 pm

Just hit 2.0″ for the day-9.03″ for the month! BTW. I love the precipitation reports. Keep them coming, along with your weekly event totals, and send them on Thursday. That is what everyone is going to want to know.

I was going to save this until tomorrow morning, but it is too cool to wait.  This is the point where less science-nerd people should lower their expectations…

This was radar at 5:00 pm at the Nevada, Arizona, and Utah borders.

Some weather nerds might mistake this for a derecho. Almost, but the NWS uses wind criteria to distinguish derechos, similar to a blizzard vs. a winter storm.

Some of you are going to hate this, I know… But this is QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System). If you’re from the Midwest or the South, you may be familiar with squall lines (not to be confused with the snow squalls we talk about in the winter).

This is nothing more than a squall line that would never exist in that environment without the setup of decaying tropical storms and low-pressure centers from California through Arizona.

At least I did not go into QLCSs developing MCSs.

Is it coming here?? It’s complicated (of course it is, or I would not be interested). The simple answer is yes. Two mountain ranges before it gets here will break it up. But all of those dynamics will go into the atmosphere and remix with the new moisture flow Sometime late tomorrow through Wednesday.

Interesting comments from the (NHS) National Hurricane Center.

Polo’s remnant vorticity will ultimately interact and phase
with a strong cutoff low digging into the four corners region of
the U.S. on Tuesday into Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall,
flash flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.

That is it for now

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