9/29/26 Tuesday

Several disappointing model runs led me to wait for the latest GFS, which I just reviewed at 4 pm. I am glad I did. Fingers crossed for the afternoon Euro (6 pm to 7 pm).

The morning model runs from GFS and Euro showed precipitation totals of 0.15-0.40″, with higher amounts for Archuleta County. This does not exactly fit the flood watch narrative.

Now the GFS is showing 0.40″ to 0.90″. With higher amounts near Pagosa, and much higher amounts at WCP.

GFS could be hallucinating this run. Or they both were dead wrong this morning. Yesterday morning, reviewing the evening runs, the models showed rain all day today, Wednesday, through Thursday early morning, dropping an additional 3 inches.

The point is, they have been disappointingly off. I am going to defend them for now because of that setup, with the cold front and multiple surface lows, plus two separate tropical moisture taps affecting some of the most diverse terrain in the US. That may just be above their pay grade…

It was/is a rough afternoon, so I am not going to wait for the Euro at 6 pm.

I will be back in the morning.

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9/29/26 Tuesday 4 am-6 pm

If you read my post yesterday about right for the wrong reason, I believe that is the path we are headed down.

Yesterday afternoon, hurricane models showed the westward progression; the landfall confirmed their northern track. If everything else in the western US had stayed the same, we would have had another 1 inch of rain overnight, with heavy rain expected today and tomorrow. But it didn’t.

Last night I highlighted the impressive thunderstorm complex at the AZ/UT/NV border.

One of those low-pressure areas tapped into a dry slot, reducing our rain rates from east to west.

Bottom line: I don’t expect much activity directly from the tropical moisture tap itself today. That moisture will likely stay too far south and too far east to affect most of us. I can’t rule out a pop-up shower or three. Residual moisture could be plenty of fuel, if the sun comes out, to trigger storm development. The models are discounting that for now, for what it is worth.

Later today, the latest models show the moisture tracking back over the entire forecast area from south to north. This will likely fuel showers and potentially thunderstorms lasting most of the day on Wednesday. Then, that should be it.

I will be back in the afternoon with a model update.

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9/28/26 Monday 7-8 pm

Just hit 2.0″ for the day-9.03″ for the month! BTW. I love the precipitation reports. Keep them coming, along with your weekly event totals, and send them on Thursday. That is what everyone is going to want to know.

I was going to save this until tomorrow morning, but it is too cool to wait.  This is the point where less science-nerd people should lower their expectations…

This was radar at 5:00 pm at the Nevada, Arizona, and Utah borders.

Some weather nerds might mistake this for a derecho. Almost, but the NWS uses wind criteria to distinguish derechos, similar to a blizzard vs. a winter storm.

Some of you are going to hate this, I know… But this is QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System). If you’re from the Midwest or the South, you may be familiar with squall lines (not to be confused with the snow squalls we talk about in the winter).

This is nothing more than a squall line that would never exist in that environment without the setup of decaying tropical storms and low-pressure centers from California through Arizona.

At least I did not go into QLCSs developing MCSs.

Is it coming here?? It’s complicated (of course it is, or I would not be interested). The simple answer is yes. Two mountain ranges before it gets here will break it up. But all of those dynamics will go into the atmosphere and remix with the new moisture flow Sometime late tomorrow through Wednesday.

Interesting comments from the (NHS) National Hurricane Center.

Polo’s remnant vorticity will ultimately interact and phase
with a strong cutoff low digging into the four corners region of
the U.S. on Tuesday into Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall,
flash flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.

That is it for now

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9/28/26 Monday 2-4 pm

I might start doing that; usually, I start writing long before I finish because I wait for additional model runs. Some folks were going by the time I started writing, thinking they were getting the email late.

One other thing before I start. Don’t send me totals until Thursday

Models are not initializing well. Some areas have already had more today than certain models forecast for the entire event ( I am at 1.60″).

This tells me one of two things.

Either we are going to see much more rain than forecasted. We have a couple of more days left. If that is the case, and we can get the moisture safely, I am all for it. That being said, if we continue at today’s rate, many areas will end up with 5 or more inches.

But years of experience remind me that sometimes even the most accurate models are “right for the wrong reason.” It happens a lot in the winter. They will forecast a certain amount of precipitation over 3 or 4 days. Then a wobble or change in a low-pressure system changes course; the next thing you know, you don’t get the 3 or 4 continuous days of precipitation forecasted. You may have a lull and take a day off, then the next day you get another full day of precipitation. Then it departs the area early.

So you end up with the amount originally forecast for the event, but the model was wrong because precipitation fell only 2 of the 4 days. That’s why I call it “right for the wrong reason”. Keep that in mind as we head into what I hope will be a very productive winter.

It’s confusing, but the hurricane ensemble models lead the next deterministic (regular) run of the model. The new Euro was out at noon. The Euro Ensemble Multi-Model takes longer to compute. It will dictate what’s in the next deterministic run, which will be out after 6 pm.

Anyway, the latest European Ensemble parameter for Tropical Cyclone Tracks just upped the ante on what I shared in my second morning update. It’s showing a further westward track than the last. It also confirmed landfall at 26n.

I will be back in the morning.

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9/28/26 Monday 8 am

The TC track for Polo just dropped. It is continuing to show a westward progression. Suggesting slightly higher totals.

Here was the prior run.  I circled in orange the number of members showing a westward progression.

Here is the new run. In red, you can see several more members to the west. This moved the entire control further west.

We will see how that translates to precipitation when the new Euro run comes out around noon.

 

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9/28/26 Monday 4:30 am

Flood watch will be in effect at 6 a.m., lasting through Wednesday at 6 a.m. This may be extended…

It’s going to be a busy day. The suspicion that it would start later was correct, but I think that is about to change. While I wait for the update, Euro run, here is what’s going on.

Here is Polo, taking its time, but it’s heading further north than prior forecasts. A further-north landfall could have significant implications for us. More on that in a moment.

Here is the latest “Cone,” updated at 3 am.

Yesterday, the anticipated landfall location was 24.5n. Now it is 26n. That is significant for its trajectory.

Here are some live radar images.

 

This shows the tap; this moisture has been primarily remnants of Odalys. Polo moisture will start to mix throughout the day.

This regional shot (above) shows how highly convective this is in Arizona right now.

Here is the local shot at 5:45 am

We are just on the leading edge.

Last night’s Euro released around midnight, initialized better than the overnight run that just came out. So I need to wait for the next NHC update on Polo’s track and landfall coordinates before making an assessment.

I mentioned the significance of the further north landfall. Further north=further west. Here was the rainfall event forecast from the Euro based on the further north landfall.

Here is the event forecast for the further-south landfall.

Still significant, especially given all the anomalies our local terrain gives us from these subtropical events.

I don’t have a particular update schedule for today. But it will mirror the National Hurricane Center updates.

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9/27/26 Sunday 1:30 pm

Not much has changed. It looks like the models are slowing the hurricane’s landfall until around 3 pm. The models should know more by the time I put out my morning update.

However:

• The Hurricane is currently 250 miles away from Cabo.
• A later landfall has very little effect on tomorrow’s rain.
• Rain was supposed to be heavy by 6 am tomorrow. Now it may be light for a couple of hours before it picks up.
• A good portion of the rain here will fall before the remnants even reach New Mexico. There are signs that we are already getting an early tap of that subtropical moisture in the upper levels.
• A lot could change in the next 12 hours, so I would not want to be married to any forecast right now.

I should have tomorrow morning’s update published by 6 am (the Euro updates at 5:45 am).

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9/27/26 Sunday 4:00 am

For today, just a slight chance of afternoon pop-up showers. Later today/tonight, subtropical moisture will be funneled into the forecast area. A flood watch goes into effect on Monday.

Including the cities of Ridgway, Loghill Village, Telluride, Mountain
Village, Ouray, Lake City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico,
Nucla, Naturita, Norwood, Slick Rock, Cortez, Mancos, Dolores, Dove
Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding, Goulding, Bluff,
Tselakai Dezza, Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White
Mesa, Monticello, La Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and
Canyonlands National Park
1245 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Colorado, including the following areas, Animas
  River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest San Juan
  Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan River
  Basin, Southwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau and
  Dallas Divide and southeast Utah, including the following areas,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Flooding will be possible over burn scars, at low-water
  crossings, and along creeks, streams, washes, arroyos and other
  flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their
  banks. Unpaved roads could become muddy and impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Periods of heavy rainfall, associated with remnant moisture from
    Hurricane Polo, are expected to produce numerous showers and
    embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rain falling on saturated soils and
    burn scars could lead to localized flash flooding and rises on
    local rivers.

From a local perspective, if you are near a creek, I’d monitor the situation closely. I am looking at you, Vallecito (creek).

——

I have been up a while, having a blast going through models. I will break down the short-term stuff in a minute. But this setup: Polo recurve, followed by what will be known as Rachel, and yes, the potential for another recurve this time into San Diego (great positioning for SW Colorado, still about 10 days out), an early-season cold front or two… Too early to get in too deep here, but does anyone remember October 2011 and October 2018?

I am going to let everyone stew on that while I shift back to this week.

There were a few silly hurricane model runs after my post yesterday. The GFS wins the prize for the worst model run that should never have slipped through the cracks.

Yep. The GFS decides to ignore physics completely. Note the loop-de-loop in the Panhandle, then it gathers strength and marches straight up to Hudson Bay! This is pure meteorological comedy.

I am not going to go through every hurricane model, but the trend shows a track that would bring heavier precipitation to our forecast area than what we saw yesterday. The latest Euro just came in with more aggressive positioning in our favor.

This low seems a little over-developed given its journey. But we will see what the next runs show.

I will be back after noon today.

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9/26/26 Saturday 4:00 am

I was asked how I “knew” Hurricane Polo would recurve; I would say it was 50% luck. The other 50% was a couple of other factors. This has been a very, very active Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. So from that perspective, it’s a numbers game. Recurving is not unusual, but it is more likely in an active season. The other factor is how much very warm water is along the coast to fuel its track.

Hurricanes need fuel to do their “job”. What is their job? Their job is to mix warm surface water and draw in cooler water from below. In a Very Strong El Niño year, they have a lot of work to do, even though the warm pool is much further south than the MDR (main development region).

Here are the culprits

Notably, another storm is developing just southeast of Polo. The latest reports show Polo is still a strong Category 5 hurricane; Odalys, which has lost her way, is still a Category 2 hurricane.  Odalys will initially be drawn toward Polo; then, when it gets close enough, the low-pressure depth and strong cyclonic flow will rip her apart and start funneling that moisture toward the SW US. That will be the first moisture that reaches landfall.

Here is how the European model initialized overnight.

There are many hurricane models. With flights going through them every day, they have a lot of constantly updated data.

We will start with the forecast tracks.

First up is the European model.

All the hurricane models are similar today, taking the remnants through New Mexico and across SE Colorado. This track would still deliver meaningful precipitation without the catastrophic flooding that may occur in Eastern New Mexico, Eastern Colorado, and the Panhandle area.

Here is the ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System) multi-model forecast. The Naval Research Laboratory developed this system, and it is one of the bellwether hurricane models.

Similar track. This track is dependent on where the storm comes ashore over Baja. A further north landfall would steer the heaviest precipitation closer to our area.

Here is the AI ECMWF, which is simply the European model  powered by Google AI.

Similar, but it shows a few model members driving the remnants farther north and into Arizona.

To complicate matters, low pressure is going to be working into the West Coast. This may become the steering mechanism for the remnants.

This is Sunday at 9 pm.

A lot can change in 48 hours, so I am not going to delve into that until tomorrow. Models often rush the progression of low-pressure systems from west to east. If it sits and spins longer than expected, it may pull the remnants on a further west trajectory, which would bring heavier rain over our forecast area.

Time to put the maps in motion to give you a better visual of how it all comes together. I will do a couple of loops from continental to regional to local.

This is from Sunday 3 pm to Monday 3 pm. You can see the moisture being pulled from Odalys towards the Southwest US and into our forecast area.

Monday 3 pm to Tuesday 3 pm

Now I will go back to Monday morning and let it roll until the system moves out on Thursday.

This is probably a good place to stop for now. Please keep in mind this is a very “right now” forecast. So much could change, even in the next few hours, that would change the track.

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9/25/26 Friday  4 pm

Thanks for the outreach. It provides a lot of fuel to get through tough days. Don’t think you are bothering me; I read everything, even if I can’t respond to every email.

I think that caregivers tend to have a moat around them, especially with our longest friends/acquaintances. I get it; we all have been there, especially as we get older.  I have, for sure. So I don’t take it personally at all; I try to figure out the best way to put friends and family at ease and talk off-subject. The simple dialogue normalizes the struggles.

So, the second I returned, I went straight down the rabbit hole again-anyway.

Point is, remember when I said I was shelving hurricane recurvature speak for a couple of days? That ends tomorrow; I do believe we will get an interaction from Polo, but also from Odalys. Essentially, it looks like Polo eats Odalys, and they track through AZ into New Mexico. Then a trough swings in to race or stall the energy.

There may even be the potential (at the moment)  for heavy snow at 9,500 feet. With a pretty Saturday ahead, don’t put off your leaf-peepin drive or hikes. Sunday could be nice, or not by the afternoon. Timing on these crazy-curvers are hard to predict.

We will start using hurricane models to track the recurve tomorrow morning.

Thank you, kind people; looking forward to resuming the chase.

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