4/1/26 Wednesday 2:30 pm
Sorry, this is so late; I’ve had a challenging day.
Here at the house, we had 1.89 inches of rain. I saw Wolf Creek was up to 17 inches and reporting heavy snow.
Just a reminder, very cold (freezing) temps overnight. Likely cold enough to kill stuff.
I’ll be back tomorrow early.
3/31/26 Tuesday 11:30 am
Webcams are showing rain and snow showers already underway. This is excellent because it”primes” the atmosphere for the bigger event tonight. Think of a dry sponge; it won’t work until it is saturated. Same thing for heavy precipitation, it won’t fall until the atmosphere is saturated.
The models all came in great, again!
European
Canadian
GFS
German
UKMET
But here is the model I am heavily weighting in my forecast.
NBM-Liquid
NBM Snow Forecast
This will be a mostly rain event for most. Some snow level models show snow falling to between 8,000 and 8,500 ft on Wednesday. I am not expecting much in the way of accumulation.
The biggest winners will be the 4 passes.
Wolf Creek, Red Mountain, Molas, Coal Bank: 16 to 20 inches.
Lizard Head will come in a little lighter with 10 to 14 inches.
Telluride: 5 to 9 in town, 8-12 inches on the mountain.
For everyone else, your rain totals will be orographically driven. Meaning elevation will determine what you get.
Below 6,500: 0.6 to 0.80 inches of rain.
6,500 to 7,300: 0.80 to 1.00 inches.
7,400 to 7,800: 1.00 to 1.40 inches
7,800 and above: 1.20 to 1.70 inches.
I am still keeping my eyes peeled for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings for below-freezing temperatures. I will address that tomorrow.
3/31/26 Tuesday 5:00 am
Slept in again. I can’t decide if that is a good thing or a bad thing. Either way, I am a little behind this morning, so the same plan as yesterday. I will get the updated model maps out by noon.
I can tell you, they all look great. The European finally caught up with the other models and is showing high totals!
I will get into the details in my next post. Also, avoid travel over passes tonight and tomorrow morning. We are going to see intense snowfall rates above 9,000 (or so). Maybe some of the heaviest (inches per hour) that we have seen this year!
Stay tuned…
3/30/26 Monday 11:00 am
Before I get started, here is an update on the second storm. Currently, it looks as if the snow will be limited to the extreme northern portions of the forecast area. However, it ushers in a cold front that will affect all elevations with the chance of a hard freeze.
Heads up: current model forecasts show lows in the low to mid 20s in Durango on Friday and Saturday mornings, and mid to low 20s on Sunday morning.
Hopefully, everfyone took my advice and did not plant!
Models that increase precipitation totals within 48 hours of a storm arriving are a reassuring vote of confidence!
That is exactly what is happening!
For reference, use the map below.
Canadian
Canadian GDPS (experimental)
European
GFS
German ICON
UKMET
That is a great example of model consistency!
Next update tomorrow morning.
3/30/26 Monday 4:30 am
I slept in accidentally and woke up to some updates I need to get installed which puts me a little behind. What I am going to do is wait to upload the new model precipitation totals until the latest model runs are generated. I will have the latest for you before 1 pm.
But here is what I can share briefly. 24 hours ago, the GFS had what looked to be an anomalous model run. That certainly turned out to be the case, because the morning model run came in strong late yesterday morning.
The other good news is that ALL the model runs came in heavier overnight. They are also indicating an early-evening onset of precipitation tomorrow night (instead of after midnight).
All of these factors are increasing my confidence in this event! I will have more details for you in a few hours.
3/29/26 Sunday 3 am
Before I get started, remember these are weather model totals. This is not my forecast. So if the models get it wrong, you don’t need to email me and tell me how wrong my forecast was.
The biggest change in the overnight model runs was timing. Most models now show the precip starting by 3 am Wednesday; consensus is good to have; however, when it comes to storm timing, that can change a lot in the final 24 hours, so we’ll keep watching that. Most models also see precipitation ending by late Wednesday/very early Thursday.
GFS appears to have an anomalous precipitation run, so for now I am going to leave that off the list and see how it looks the rest of the day.
Here is your location guide if maps are not your thing…
I am going to stick with a conservative 10-to-1 SLR (snow-to-liquid ratio). So, for Telluride and Wolf Creek (as well as the other mountain areas above 9,000 ft), just move the decimal point one space to the right for the snow equivalent.
European
In this case, the .97 (above)at Telluride becomes 9.7 inches of snow
UK Met
ICON (Germany)
Canadian
Canadian Experimental GDPS
Just a note to Cortez residents, don’t get too excited about these totals. Some of the lower resolution models read the elevation of nearby Sleeping Ute and blend the totals over Cortez. Higher-res models are currently showing a total of .30 to .40.
My next update will be on Monday.
3/28/26 Saturday 4 am-ish
All models are still in agreement on the next storm. ETA is sometime on Wednesday. I say “sometime” because there is a 12-18-hour discrepancy in when the precipitation starts. Models range from 1 am Wednesday to early afternoon Wednesday.
The GFS shows the earliest start of the precipitation. The Canadian shows the latest start. There are differences in how long the storm lasts. The average of the models shows a duration of about 16 hours.
Then it gets complicated. Will there be a second round of precipitation? If so, will it be on Friday? Saturday? Sunday? Models are really struggling with that piece.
All of the 13 models I mentioned yesterday are still in agreement on the Wednesday storm. But they diverge on the chances of. When (or if) we will see a second storm. I am hoping to get a better read on that by Monday morning.
Here is an updated look at the maps in motion.
First up is the “big picture” view. This allows you to see the storm progression. Also, notice that the “monsoonal signature” in Mexico is still showing up in the models. Lastly, notice the next storm stretching from NW Wyoming down to Salt Lake.
US view from Monday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. Remember, green is rain, blue is snow. The darker the shades, the heavier the precipitation.
Colorado view
This particular run shows slightly lower snow levels (8100 ft). I am not expecting that at this time, but I am watching closely.
My next update will be on Sunday, and we will start delving into precipitation totals from the models.
3/27/26 Friday 5 am ish
Currently 43 degrees at DWG HQ, interestingly enough, a lightning detection 22-25 miles away a couple of minutes ago.
This is likely a false detection, however, over the last couple of days, the European model has been showing a few pop-up showers, mostly over the northern portions of the forecast area today. I have mostly disregarded this because, if it verifies, there likely wouldn’t be enough to measure. (so what good is it)…
The main story continues to be the changes that all of the models are showing for next week. I can’t find a model that does not show these changes. Here is the list of models I have checked.
There are minor differences in precipitation start and stop times, but the overall theme is the same: Light precipitation possible on Monday and Tuesday as moisture moves into the area, giving way to more significant precipitation by midweek (likely Wednesday/Thursday). Mostly rain below 9,000 feet, snow above. Towards the end of the event, some models are showing snow levels dropping to 8,000 feet.
Precipitation amounts vary widely, but this is mostly due to differences in model resolution. As I said, it is way too early to talk about precipitation event totals — maybe this weekend we can dive into them if the model consistency continues.
My next update will be on Saturday.
03/26/26 Thursday 4 am
According to the latest model runs, big changes are still on tap Monday through Friday next week. The models diverge after next Friday, so we will just focus on Monday through Friday for now.
It is always easier to see (or try to see) the setup by zooming out and looking at the whole country first, before zooming in on our area. so here is the “big picture” of the maps in motion.
You can still see the monsoonal-looking showers early in the week, followed by what looks like a weak “atmospheric river” arriving on the west coast with remnants mingling with a trough of low pressure by mid-week.
Here is the local view.
It’s too early to talk about precipitation amounts being a week out, but let me say I hope the models are on to something. As of today, all six models I track show this event coming together!
My next update will be on Friday.
3/25/26 Wednesday 5 am
I am calling it. This miserable weather is coming to an end. April will be a better month. There have been some advantages to not having any weather to talk about, I guess. I have caught up on a few things around here. Most notable was taking down the Christmas tree (I know, I know). First time ever I put up and took down a Christmas tree on my own.
I feel like I have optimized Sus’s dosing, striking a balance between just enough and not too much. I never knew how much I would have to constantly chase that down. Such is the case with “Atypical Parkinsons”. With that being said, she continues to decline, and I am just going to stop there.
Another accomplishment was that I have optimized my “office.” I split the living room in half. I moved the rest of my necessary hardware into “my half” of the room. I can now work comfortably (keyword) while being 100% available for Sus. Plus, it looks much better than the Christmas tree.
Overall, March did not come in like a “Lion” but it really looks like April will. It really does. But it is not April yet, almost. This ridge has a few days left. Likely through the weekend. Next week, things change. The ridge starts to collapse early next week, the northern jet drops back down and the storm train starts back up. Better late than never.
Monday/Tuesday prior to the ridge collapsing, models are suggesting a very unusual looking anomaly. A brief “Monsoonal” preview??
Here is Monday according to the Euro, GFS and Canadian:
Euro
GFS
Canadian
What makes this a “monsoonal” signature is the source of the precipitation (Mexico). There is no sign of this being remnants of tropical activity. Technically, is not the “monsoon” but it sure looks like it. Perhaps all models are wrong, we will see.
So, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. It will be easier for me to post, going forward, at it sure looks like we are going to have something to talk about again! Next Update on Thursday.
