7/15/26 Wednesday 6 am
I will be doing my normal midday post, but if you feel like you have missed out on the rain the last couple of days, today and the next several days. we will see better shower coverage than Monday and Tuesday.
Don’t be surprised if things get underway earlier and produce storms into this evening/night!
7/14/26 Tuesday 11 am
I am about 50/50 on yesterday’s model run showing the bullseyes. It was partially correct, but the heaviest precip fell just east of where indicated. I received reports of 0.80 inches in Hesperus, and 0.76 inches in Lightner Creek. Being in the middle of those locations, I only received an additional 0.24 inches. Most reports were higher; some were definitely lower.
No worries, there is plenty more on the way. Remember, yesterday and today were bonus “early start days”. Thinking back, I originally said on or after the 17th.
I was fully prepared to say that this afternoon was likely to be the least active of the week. Until the new European came out. It has a similar bullseye to yesterday, but a little further south. I am going to leave it in the “for what it’s worth” category for now.
I don’t want to get too far off-topic, but I came across a couple of interesting things.
2) This run (below) from NOAA’s CFSv2. This is NOAA’s Climate Forecast System. This model was launched in mid-2011. It is an updated version of the CFS, which launched in 2004. CFSv2 is supposed to be much more accurate than the original.
Anyway, I came across its temperature anomaly forecast for JFM (January February, March).
The model has never forecasted this cold of winter in the 14 1/2 years since it was released. This could throw a wrench in the winter forecast if it continues in this direction! Another thing to keep an eye on: this signature could only appear if we have a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) with a very strong El Niño. I won’t go into the PDO in depth unless it becomes more certain. But the overall message is, it could be an interesting winter for much of the US!
7/13/26 Monday 1 pm
I got multiple inch-plus reports of 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain. Mid-elevation areas a couple of miles on either side of HWY 160 was the apparent storm track.
By definition, the most saturated areas have the best chances of heavier rain this afternoon. All models missed those heavy overnight showers. I will be very happy if this afternoon’s forecast verifies.
All models are indicating a bullseye area for this afternoon. Likely after 3 pm, but maybe much later. This area runs from approximately the Hesperus Ski area to Mancos. It extends north into the La Platas. And South along the RD46 loop and Menefee Mountain. If you live in that area, you know what I’m talking about. If you don’t, you probably don’t care.
That darker shade of green indicates heavier rains and higher totals. Intriguing to have such model consensus for such a small area. They might be wrong. We’ll see. If they are right, then that may give me better tools during the monsoon season.
As far as timing goes, any time from 3 to 9 pm. I would be nervous if there was no lightning detection in the forecast area before 3 pm. Before I finished typing that, my weather station detected lightning between 9 and 12 miles away!
By the way, that other bullseye around Vallecito, Lemon, and Forest Lakes is not on all models, unlike the western bullseye. Not a lot more to talk about. Hopefully we will have some great totals to talk about in the morning!
07/13/26 Monday 6 am
Beautiful, unexpected rain overnight. Amounts range from 0.20 to 0.40 across most areas, with higher values favoring the southern forecast area.
The BIG winner was Rafter-J/King Mountain. A very narrow band of heavy showers went over them, leaving up to 2 inches of rain!
Now what? Nothing has changed in the forecast. In fact, I could argue that the saturation portion is complete; showers could start earlier than expected. BUT, the best thing that could happen if you want rain is for the sun to come out quickly! We want to see the atmosphere start “boiling up”.
I see email coming fast and furious, so there must be a lot of reports. I will be back this afternoon after the morning models generate.
7/12/26 Sunday 1:30 pm
I am feeling pretty confident this change is on the way. It could very well start tomorrow afternoon, but in discussing the timing the other day, I gave my “dry likes to stay dry” caveat. In short, the air will have to be saturated before it can get going.
At the moment, my weather station shows 16.6% humidity and a dew point of 38.
Hopefully this dew point forecast will be correct for 24 hours from now, Monday afternoon. If so, it would get the job done!
I can already hear my high elevation followers wondering about the lower dew points in the mountains. Don’t worry! Because your temperatures are naturally colder, the air up there doesn’t need to hold as much moisture to reach saturation. It takes a lot less effort for the atmosphere to trigger precipitation at your elevation!
This is what 10 days of afternoon showers look like!
I will post again in the morning.
07/12/26 Sunday 7 am
I had a slightly later start on my post than I expected this morning. Just wanted everyone to know things still look good for this week!
The overnight European model run looks great and has been very consistent since we started tracking the upcoming pattern change. Here is a very “monsoonal-looking” precipitation forecast for total rain over the next 14 days.
This is exactly what we want to see before the monsoon gets going. I will explain the details later today, likely early afternoon, so check back!
7/10/26 Friday 8 am
Sorry, I had to cut it short yesterday. Some are probably glad I did because it’s a lot to take in. So I will take us right back to before I left off:
ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is responsible for La Niña, El Niño, and neutral conditions. We have only been tracking it since 1950, which is a millisecond in most scientific contexts.
Here is every year since then. What you are looking at are the positive (in red, El Niño years) and negative (in blue, La Niña years). I have identified the years originally considered (analog years), assuming a “Strongest Ever” El Niño. And some new analog years which are currently being considered.
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, historically, the heaviest snow in Durango and Purgatory has fallen in Neutral years (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Not necessarily the case in Telluride, which is even less affected by ENSO status. Now would be a good time to mention El Niño and La Niña are only one of the factors that affect snowfall in the winter. Because there is so much emphasis on them in the Weather media and Ski and Ride media, it is always a good place to start.
As I recall, 2015-2016 was not a bad ski year, mainly because of a few storms that showed up when needed. However, in town, that was not the case, and we had below-average snowfall. 97-98 was a bit of a disaster everywhere.
Let’s go back to the good news. Atmospheric Scientists are studying more recent data (within the past 6 months) linking the upcoming winter to the Very Strong El Niño winter of 1965-1966, as well as the Strong El Niño winter of 1957-1958.
If you blend those two winters equally, here is the (low) pressure setup you get.
I am not getting sidetracked, I promise, but do you remember those old-fashioned barometers? They would usually sit on a shelf or a fireplace. They would show the barometric pressure analog gauge, with a little arrow. It would point to “Stormy” if the barometric pressure was low and to “Clear” if the barometric pressure was high. It was the original weather app!
In short, low-pressure equals storminess. Extended periods of low pressure indicate stormy periods/seasons.
Now that you have seen that, take a look at the recent model forecast anomalies for the upcoming winter.
November, December, January
December, January, February
January, February, March
February March April
You may have noticed that I ran from November through April. Meteorological winter is December, January, February. This model is showing a very active winter AND spring!
Everything still looks good for the pattern change next week. In my post this weekend, we will take a deeper look.
07/09/26 Thursday 6:00 am
When I first heard about the idea that we would have a record-setting El Niño, my first thought was, wow, that is nearly a year ahead prediction. Then I found out that some of the usual parameters by the usual model were not used.
Ok. Here is another thing: for the last few years ( 4 or 5), NOAA has been trying to retire a couple of weather models. Two of the short-term models are of little use here. But if you head a few hundred miles to our east, they are the short-term models of choice, especially for storm prediction. The reason they don’t work here is our mixed terrain.
Our area struggles with that across all weather models, but the shorter the term and the higher the resolution, the worse they perform with terrain. There is also a new international weather model being discussed; I don’t know much about it, and I will wait until I do more research before drawing a conclusion.
Since earlier El Niño predictive data may have been anomalous (after the bold headline that everyone who has a winter in the US clicked on), Atmospheric Scientists continue to collect data, looking for confirmations of agreement, disagreement, etc.
After reading some of those takes and viewing the model runs that led them to these more recent conclusions, I am seeing where a case could be made for a slightly weaker El Niño (still strong historically), and if correct, would be a setup for a very stormy, snowy winter (if, if, if-I know).
Considering meteorological winter starts in 4 months and 3 weeks, it’s probably timely for me to jump in and start digging through data.
ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is responsible for La Niña, El Niño, and neutral conditions. We have only been tracking it since 1950, which is a millisecond in most scientific contexts.
Here is every year since then. What you are looking at are the positive (in red, El Niño years) and negative (in blue, La Niña years). I have identified the years originally considered (analog years), assuming a “Strongest Ever” El Niño. And some new analog years which are currently being considered.
I just looked at the time, and I am afraid I will have to finish this tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for Part 2.
7/8/26 Wednesday 7:30 am
According to the models, isolated showers are less likely to pop up today. Some models increase the chances over eastern La Plata and most of Archuleta up the west side of the tunnel at Wolf Creek. Again, not everyone, and expect light amounts, if any.
As was the case with most locations, rain accumulations were few and far between. At some point, apparently, 0.01 fell in my weather station. Hundredths were more common than tenths. However, there was something of a bullseye yesterday. Close to the east side of the Animas (not exactly “on” 250), a couple locations got over 0.30 inches. Better than nothing.
We did not really have high hopes for yesterday. I am getting more (cautiously) optimistic for the upcoming pattern change for next week. I can’t pinpoint the exact date, but I have been using “around the 17th” for a while now, so I will stick with that temporarily. Most models actually show afternoon showers starting by Tuesday. We will see.
Here is the regional view of a few afternoons next week. I did not cherry-pick; they all look similar and strengthen into the weekend (7/18) .
One could easily say these afternoon showers have a definite Monsoonal “like” signature. The thing about the Monsoon years, when it happens, it happens quickly. At times you have to recognize it in hindsight.
Tuesday 7/14
Thursday 7/16
Friday 7/17
Saturday 7/18
You get the idea…
Bring it on!
7/07/26 Tuesday 7:30 am
Today will be the best shot of getting a few drops of rain, likely until the weekend. Not a lot, and not everyone; it will be isolated.
Isolated thunderstorms have a good chance of developing from around Purgatory and northward to Ouray. These thunderstorms are likely to drift off the higher terrain southward, to the mid elevations between 1 and 3 pm. Finally, the lower elevations will have a chance of a couple of showers, mainly north of hwy 160.
In my last post, I talked about the potential for a major pattern change arriving after the 17th. I am getting encouraged with what I have seen since then. In fact, we may not have to wait that long- it may only be a week out!
Here are the new forecast totals from Monday the 13th through Monday the 20th.
GFS
A couple of caveats. It seems like I say this every post. Dry likes to stay dry, wet likes to stay wet. It may take a while to saturate the atmosphere. But this would certainly be more than enough to do that!
