6/9/23 Friday 8 am

Things will continue to dry out around here with little (if any) precipitation being confined to the highest elevations and the spine of the divide.

There are some indications that mid-to-late next week another one of those low-pressure systems will move in from the west and bring a better chance of scattered showers.

Looking at the extended period, it looks less likely that we will experience a “Junesoon” this year. As I have said over the last couple of months, I do expect an above-average monsoon this year, however, I expect it to start later than last year, and later than average. So we are more than likely looking at a start during the last half of July, perhaps even the last 10 days of July.

Also, I expect an increase in tropical activity in EPAC. We have not seen a tropically active Eastern Pacific for 7 years. The heaviest rain events (the historical events) in SW Colorado occurred when an Eastern Pacific Hurricane recurved and sent a remnant low-pressure system over SW Colorado. So as the season goes on I will be monitoring the tropical activity (as I always do).

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6/7/23 Wednesday 8:30 am

Despite the theatrical radar late yesterday, not a lot of rain fell in the west and central portions of the forecast area. That wasn’t the case in the eastern portions of the forecast area. Archuleta County did very well with their totals. Above-average surface moisture will trigger scattered showers once again today.

Drier air will begin creeping into the forecast area tomorrow. This will continue for the next several days. Despite the drier air, isolated showers will continue to be a possibility for the next couple of days or so.

The models had been showing an extended period of dry weather coming up. After looking at some of the latest model runs this morning I am less certain that will be the case.

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6/6/23 Tuesday 5:20 pm

In the last two days, the models have not done well with daytime convection. Yesterday, I mentioned the late-day surge of moisture that will move into the forecast area. It would appear that the low-pressure system to our SW will aid in thunderstorm development this evening. Accompanying it is the model predicted surge in moisture.

Here is the latest radar (5 pm). Hopefully, this will come together for tonight and tomorrow, because we will be going into an extended period of dry weather later this week.

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6/5/23 Monday 7:10 am

A little better chance of showers and thunderstorms today. Scattered showers will form over the higher elevation areas around noon, then drift into the middle and lower elevation areas.  The best available energy for thunderstorms (CAPE) will be between noon and 4 pm.

Showers will become more widespread throughout the day on Tuesday as moisture is drawn into the forecast area. A reinforcing shot of abundant sub-tropical moisture will overtake the atmosphere late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This could lead to evening and nighttime showers and thunderstorms.

Showers will reform Wednesday as the moisture and remnant moisture works with the available energy to fire storms. Things will begin to dry out Thursday but a stray storm could still fire up.

Friday begins a stretch of drier weather, it is too early to tell how long this stretch will last. It could be a couple of days or it could be a week or more. I will have a better handle on that later this week.

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6/4/23 Sunday 8:50 am

Yesterday mostly light showers fell in isolated areas throughout the forecast area. One stronger storm developed around CR 502 SW of Vallecito, overall it was pretty short-lived.

More showers will develop today, once again, flip a coin to determine where they will set up, the best guess would be wherever the residual moisture is left over from yesterday.

On Monday, conditions will be a little more favorable for scattered showers. Tuesday and Wednesday still look like the best days for widespread showers throughout the forecast area.

I am starting to get questions about the coming El Nino event. Most people have at least a limited understanding of what El Nino is, but less of an understanding of what its effects are. Not all El Ninos are the same. Traditionally El Nino is characterized by anomalous warming of the ocean in the equatorial region of the Pacific off the coast of South America.

This year a number of scientists I follow and rely upon are forecasting an El Nino Modoki event (rhymes with Okey-dokey). If that happens, a cold snowy winter is usually the result for much of the United States. Our last “good” El Nino Modoki was 2009-2010. Another notable Modoki event was 1972-1973, I realize very few people will remember that season but those who do will understand the significance.

Here is what the warming looks like during a typical El Nino event.

Here is what the warming looks like during an  El Nino Modoki event.

Winter is still a ways off, but at the moment I am expecting an (ENM) El Nino Modoki to develop resulting in above-average snowfall for the mountains and mid-elevations with a well-above-average snowfall in the lower elevations and below-average temperatures for the entire forecast area.

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6/3/23 Saturday 7 am

24 hours ago the models were showing a slight uptick in shower coverage today and tomorrow. That no longer is the case today. The models are now showing a downturn in shower coverage from yesterday. Showers will be isolated with the best chances of development occurring in the northern high-elevation areas, and the far eastern portions of the forecast area closer to the continental divide.

More of the same for Sunday, with maybe a slightly better chance of showers. Then an even better chance of scattered showers on Monday. At the moment Tuesday and Wednesday look wet, with widespread showers returning. This will occur as a result of sub-tropical moisture being pulled across the area from Texas and New Mexico. Something to keep an eye on.

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6/2/23 Friday 7:10 am

Thanks for all of the feedback yesterday. Showers started off encouraging but dwindled in many areas early. They reformed across the north and a few other locations. You have to remember that June is the driest month of the year when you judge the amount of rain you receive. You can’t judge it the same as you do other months out of the year.

For today it looks like showers will be a little more spotty, but according to the models, tomorrow shows a little more promise for showers to develop throughout the forecast area.

It’s Friday, as promised here are the latest extended model runs. Essentially nothing has changed, they show above-average precipitation from now through July 4th ish.

European departure from normal (above average) through July 4th

GFS departure from average (above normal) through July 5th

Canadian departure from average (above normal) through July 3rd

Keep the reports coming and I will update again Saturday morning.

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6/1/23 Thursday 7 am

We will get a better look at the extended models in tomorrow’s update, but from what I am seeing in the daily model runs, June is going to at least start off with above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures.

Scattered showers will redevelop the next few days, and snow will fall, mostly at or above 12,000 feet. A couple to a few inches could possibly accumulate. Showers were pretty spotty yesterday but could become more widespread today and tomorrow. The northern and central portions of the forecast area will be favored for precipitation. Generally, areas at or north of Durango’s latitude will see the best chance of meaningful precipitation.

A couple of days ago I made a reference to a “Junesoon” developing,  similar to what happened in May which I referred to as the “Maysoon”. During the actual monsoon season, one of the parameters I reference is PWAT or precipitable water value. This is a measure of how saturated the air is. It forecasts the amount of precipitation available to fall over a given area. I prefer to look at the anomaly versus the actual number. It displays the percentage above average for this time of year.

Here are the next 10 days, in six-hour increments.

According to this forecast, the PWAT will range from 150%-250% of normal most of the time for the first 10 days of June.

The models always struggle this time of year with where the storms will develop. I would love to hear from people to know when it starts raining and where you are. That helps me know which models are most accurate with their forecasts.

My next update will be Friday morning.

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5/30/23 Tuesday 7 am

After a nice dry patch of weather isolated to scattered showers will develop tomorrow afternoon. Showers will redevelop Thursday afternoon. On Friday, showers will become more widespread throughout the forecast area.

There are some indications that the pattern will continue through the first 10 days of the month leading to above-average precipitation totals. The set-up is similar to what we recently experienced in May, what I referred to as the “Maysoon”. A Junesoon? We’ll see.

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5/26/23 Friday 7:20 am

Very little changes to the short term. For most of us, it will be dry, windy, and warm. As is usually the case, a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the higher elevations during the next few afternoons.

This pattern will continue through Tuesday. Models are starting to pick up on a pattern change around  Wednesday. They are showing cooler, wetter weather returning through Sunday or Monday, June 5th.

Extended models are showing mixed results for the rest of June. The GFS and Canadian models are forecasting well above-average precipitation anomalies. The European model is predictably leaning towards its dry bias showing average precipitation.

Here are the extended forecast precipitation anomalies for the next 30 or so days (depending on the model). The amounts shown are the total deviation from normal.

European through June 25th

GFS through June 28th.

Canadian through June 25th

Have a great weekend! Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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