10/11/26 Sunday 1:30 pm

So far, so good (I know, stick with me). The latest Euro expected very light showers this morning; we got them.  Then it forecasted light to moderate showers this afternoon and evening; we’ll see.

We might get some thunderstorms now that the sun has popped out. The latest European model predicted maximum CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) at 4 pm this afternoon.

Supporting that, our dewpoints have jumped into the low to mid-50s across the lower and mid-elevations. By the way, this morning, while I was looking at weather stations across the Southwest, I noticed a station north of Blythe, CA, registering a 74.7-degree dew point as Rachel’s remnants strode by, crazy for the desert!

As I explained a couple of days ago, it’s not all about Rachel. A cold front and low pressure in the west are also in play. Rachel has effectively been absorbed by the other two players. Mostly to the cold front/winter storm to the north.

The positioning of those players has changed slightly. Here it was at 3 am. I explained what was what.

Here is the latest (noon) map below, showing the latest positions. I have directional arrows to show you how these would historically track given the current meteorological conditions.

These low-pressure systems, one embedded in the cold front and the other coming down from the Pac NW, now have the remaining Rachel moisture as energy.

Uh oh diversion

I had to stop typing for a minute because I was laughing so hard. Sus, napping, was doing her “singing”. You can’t understand any of the words, but it is clear from her professional singing background and the fact that the musical centers of her brain are remarkably preserved despite her CBD neurological disorder.  So she went for the” dooo doo doo do do da do!” finish. Then, a second later, with perfect clarity, she said, “Thank you!” as if she were on stage again.

Sorry about that. Question: Should I add a Sus page, like the precipitation report, that those of you who are interested can click to read the latest on her condition or some of her struggles? That way I can keep the two separate.

End of diversion

The point of the weather update was that Rachel is gone and living in the other two. They are still far away from us, over a day.

It’s too early to call on Simon, and it’s late in the week. To be honest, I would be very surprised if things with Simon come together, but I understand why some models think it will.

Anyway, tomorrow still looks like on and off showers until the evening. The focus now is Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday night.

I’ll be back in the morning. I was serious about Sus page; please give me your feedback.

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10/11/26 Sunday 3:30 am

Famous last words…

“Now we just need to wait and see which model delivers! I will be back in the morning.”

So far, none of them!  Tropical Storm Rachel made landfall at approximately 9:45 pm last night.

When you wake up expecting precipitation, and there is none, or not as much as the models showed, you have to wait for a complete model reset.  This model miss is called poor initialization. It happens a lot for our area.

This is why I always stress the “right for the wrong reasons” theory. Meaning, often with a large winter storm or a recurve, the models get the day-to-day amounts wrong, but are much closer if you spread it out over the event’s duration.

If I beleive all the models that have so far gotten things wrong, there is still rain and some mountain snow on the way. Last night’s European is still trying to use low pressure to try to tap into late-week moisture from Simon and deliver it on Friday and Saturday. No other model shows this occurrence.

Potentially good news? I have been coordinating the activity I see on the radar with weather stations.  As impressive as the radar looks in spots, not much is happening. Three areas look very active: Cedar City, Utah; Flagstaff; and Las Vegas. But when I look at the weather stations, most are reporting less than 0.30″. Accumulations are slightly higher near Palm Springs and southwest of there.

The latest surface map was just released. This was as of 3 am (they always lag a couple of hours).

Number one, I challenge their positioning of Rachel. But the real big story is that none of the other players are getting involved, yet. I marked them on the map; only the majors, none of the shortwaves or other minor perturbations.

6 am Update

Hopefully more good news. The overnight European rapid update model did initialize well. It shows a very similar forecast for today, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, as it has been showing for the last few days. It also still shows respectable totals through Wednesday night.

Today

Dewpoints are right where forecast. It looks like a mix of clouds and sun this morning.  A slight chance of light rain. Showers developing late this afternoon and evening.

I am going to stop here for now. The new Euro will be out in about 5 1/2 hours. The new GFS and Canadian will be out in under 4 hours. I want to see those before I get married to this latest European run.

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10/10/26  Saturday  4:00 pm

Who says I don’t take special requests? No, I was not hired to promote the race. I have always dreamed of being able to distance run again, as I did in my 30s (early through late); 1995 to 2002.

So I have a bit of a soft spot for this topic. My best marathon was 4:32, I know, laughable, but I identified with the “Clydesdale Class”  @225 pounds 6’2′.  I went through 6 pairs of Brooks Beasts a year back then, when they were incredible. My longest run ever was 54 miles (flat terrain).

Why did I stop? Multiple fractures in my fib and ankle ended up with 4 titanium rods and a ton of nerve damage. Have not skied since 2003; I had over 30 good years before that.

OK Enough.

Sunday Marathon Forecast

All I can tell you is that most models are delaying onset precipitation tonight. That should carry through tomorrow morning and result in less precipitation between 6 am and noon. I remember running a marathon in a nice light rain, temps in the low to mid 50s, and it was wonderful.  Check in tomorrow morning. I will post one last marathon update before 6:30 am.

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10/10/26 Saturday  1 pm

Reviewed all the latest model runs; read the Hurricane Center’s Rachel discussions. Read the NWS  forecast discussions for all of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, and Montana. I reread my posts from the last couple of days.

It occurred to me that the big picture for the event hasn’t changed much. I feel like I have exhausted this setup. Now we just need to wait and see which model delivers!

I will be back in the morning.

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Saturday 2:30 am

Before I get started, interesting fact:

I am sure everyone has been hearing the nonstop updates on Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf. It made landfall last night in Destin, FL, as a Category 2 hurricane.

Here is what makes this interesting. The United States had not had a landfalling hurricane in two years. It was two years to the day (October 9th, 2024) when Hurricane Milton made landfall at Siesta Key, FL.  Isaias and Milton made landfall within one hour of each other on the same day, two years apart. My late Stepmother was living in Clearwater Beach when Milton hit. I was monitoring the storm for her, her friends, and other island residents.

Meanwhile back in SW Colorado (I felt I needed a segue)…

Precipitable Water values are rising as SW flow moves into the area. Dewpoints are rising as well. Real quick: October dewpoints don’t need to be as high as July dewpoints; it’s all relative to temperature. A 45-degree dew point when it is 60 degrees is much different than a 45-degree dew point when the temperature is 45 degrees; that is 100% saturation.

Today

Light showers are already starting to develop-mostly west of 550  between Mancos and Durango (4:15 am).  Light showers will continue to develop throughout the day. By late this afternoon and evening, moderate to occasionally heavier showers will fall through Sunday morning.

Sunday

Right now, light showers will dominate the morning, followed by a significant uptick in coverage by late afternoon and evening.

After Sunday, my confidence in the forecast drops significantly. Until Rachel gets over land, the models will struggle with how it interacts with the cold front and low pressure dropping south into California.

It looks like we’ll transition into on-and-off light showers on Monday as drier air moves over us. On Tuesday, showers appear more widespread throughout the day and taper off in the evening. By Wednesday afternoon, the final piece comes through with occasional moderate to heavy showers.

I can’t leave you hanging after that headline.  The last two runs of the Euro show low pressure tapping into what appears to be leftover moisture from Simon late next week. The rain and snow totals the Euro shows would be significant enough to warrant Winter Storm warnings at or above 9,500 feet Friday night and Saturday.

Before you get too excited or worried, the European is the only model showing this. If two or three more model runs show the same solution, we will have to start paying attention.

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10/9/26 Friday 12:30 pm

Not much has changed since this morning. The Euro, however, corrected with a landfall a couple hundred miles south of the previous run. It still shows tracking over San Diego, just not as a landfall.

Saturday

Light showers are still expected to develop by the late morning or early afternoon, becoming heavier in the evening and overnight.

Sunday

Light showers in the morning, with scattered pockets of moderate showers.  By afternoon, showers will become more widespread. By evening, some of those showers will become heavy and last through the night.

Things get a little less clear on Monday. Some models are showing a complete lull until the next batch of moisture arrives Tuesday. Others are showing light, on-and-off showers on Monday.

Models agree moisture and showers return on Tuesday and last through late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The European is not satisfied, so it is bringing in more moisture Friday and Saturday. I am not convinced that will happen; if it does, it would add an additional 0.50″ to 1.00″. To the total below.

I have not shared maps yet, as we have been tracking this event. It’s time to start. These are from Saturday through Thursday morning

European (keep in mind what I said earlier)

German

NOAA Hi-Res NBM

GFS

AI GFS

European AIFS/ Google DeepMind

I wanted to share many of the precipitation models I look at. Going forward, I will not share more than two or three. Normal post times tomorrow. Expect a Flood Watch to be issued tonight or tomorrow.

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10/9/26 Friday Morning Update 3:30 am-6:30 am

More changes overnight. The GFS is still west of Europe. But the Euro shifted even farther west overnight compared to the earlier run. To clarify, when I say it shifted west, I mean Rachel’s landfall is farther north, which pulls the remnant track farther west.

Again, that doesn’t mean we get missed; it means less rain but potentially more snow at lower elevations. This creates a quandary for me internally: “Would I rather get that extra 0.50″-1.00” of rain, or would I rather have snow below 8,000 feet? HMMMMM…

I am not going to get married to either solution just yet. Too many model-to-model and run-to-run inconsistencies remain.

Today & Saturday

This afternoon, there is a slight chance of light rain developing, favoring areas above 9,500 feet. Light showers will develop on Saturday, then become more widespread later in the afternoon. Saturday night: moderate showers will develop in the evening and continue through most of the overnight hours.

Sunday Durango Marathon

Right now, it looks like light showers for the duration of the event (most participants).

Remember, these forecasts are subject to two hurricanes, a trough of low pressure off the West Coast, and a cold front coming down from Canada. And more importantly, their tracks and how they interact with each other.

Predicted Macro Set-Up For Saturday Morning

These players will shape the weather from tomorrow through Wednesday night/Thursday.

Here are the maps in motion beginning Saturday morning. Yesterday morning, I mentioned that a further west trajectory would bring lulls in precipitation. Here is what that looks like.

What you see is the initial impact of Rachel’s moisture moving through, followed by a lull. Then recycled Rachel moisture caught up in the low-pressure, followed by the cold front pressing south Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The 552 thickness level indicates a snow level of 8,000 feet. When things slowdown a bit, and before our first low-elevation snowfall, I will explain thickness levels and what they tell us.

My plan was to share some preliminary precipitation totals to finish out the update. But the new overnight Euro just came out with a further-west (north) track. It shows a landfall north of San Diego?

Not that I buy into that yet. But I had to look at what type of energy that would create (nerd). Here is the resultant wave forecast.

40 footers! Yikes.

Hurricanes/ Tropical storms need warm water for fuel. Here are the sea surface temperatures.

Call me skeptical, but I don’t think the storm will go through 70-74 degree ocean temperatures. I am going to call this an inaccurate model run. Hopefully we see a correction with the next run (6 hours from now).

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10/08/26 Thursday 1 pm

I didn’t have as much time as I planned to go deep into the models. Sus had a very long, exhausting PBA attack; she finally fell asleep a couple of hours past naptime.

Anyway, I have looked at the models just long enough to tell you this:

Durango Marathon (Sunday)

All models show rain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. And rain most of the day on Sunday (light to moderate).

Rachel

The GFS went further west with Rachel. The Euro went further east, closer to us, than the goofy overnight run that had me all flustered this morning.

The GFS is still painting one to two inches of rain across the forecast area, even with the three hundred mile shift west.

The Euro, Canadian, and NOAA NBM hi-res multi-model are all showing widespread two to five+ inch totals for the event.

My post tomorrow morning will be out by 6:30 am.

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10/8/26 Thursday 4 am

There is a lot to unpack this morning. So much so that I don’t really trust anything I am seeing beyond Sunday — and I am not 100% sure about Sunday’s forecast.

If what I am seeing is close to correct, we will have to officially start the (Rachel/Simon/Cold front#1/Cold front #2) event totals on Saturday, which technically is the day the pattern change starts. It is a lot to process: 4 events, each with different variables, each of which can affect each other and ultimately our weather next week.

Today

More of the same, slight chances of afternoon showers, blah blah blah.

Saturday

Shower chances increase throughout the day, favoring elevations above 8,500 feet. Shower chances really crank up Saturday night, again, if I can beleive what I am seeing.

Sunday Durango Marathon

Light rain with a chance of periods of moderate rain in the morning, expanding in coverage in the afternoon and evening hours.

That is it. That is as far as I can go this morning.

As I said, I am trying to digest everything I am seeing. The  Tropical Cyclone Track models are doubling down on a further west Rachel landfall. Right now, it looks like Rachel wants to visit San Diego, then head up to Vegas.

No, that does not mean we get missed, not at all. Low-end models show an inch, while more complex, higher-resolution models show 3+ inches, with pockets exceeding 5 inches.

This is probably a good time to stop for now. There is too much to cover without seeing the next set of model runs. I will talk more about this synoptic traffic jam later today.

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10/7/26 Wednesday 4:00 am-

Today

As I said a couple of days ago, we’ll be locked into a broken-record forecast until this weekend: A slight chance of light afternoon showers favoring the higher elevations.

By this weekend, the models show an uptick in moisture as the remnants of Rachel lock into a final track.

Durango Marathon

Models are highly unreliable right now with the latest shifts in Hurricane Rachel’s track. At the moment, conditions look like they will be cool and drizzly, perhaps very light rain, and temps ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s early, rising to the low 60s by noon. This is subject to change

Rachel Tracks

Rachel’s remnants have shifted west in the latest Tropical Cyclone Track models this morning.

ATCF

European Ensemble

EuropeanAI/Google DeepMind

I am not ready to break down what this all means in detail. But here are a couple of thoughts.

1. This potentially could increase the amount of precipitation we get.
2. This could delay the onset of heavier precipitation, OR lead to a lull between light and heavy precipitation.

If we get consecutive model runs showing this today and tonight, then I will tackle that subject in greater detail tomorrow.

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