8/21/26, Friday after 2 pm

I was not too crazy about the latest run of the European model. I also wish we would see an uptick in dew points. Of course, the model lowered PWATs for this afternoon and evening. The radar is not very impressive either

I am not saying it’s going to be a bust for everyone. High pressure is to our southeast; it’s supposed to move farther SE. But the unexpected wobbles of these highs and lows can confuse a model (and forecasters). Bring on the winter storm season!

I started off negative, so stick with me as I try to talk myself into evening storms: It was one model run. The model had tagged today as the best day for widespread rain for several days, 4 times a day. That is consistency, and it usually is a great signal. The last run to show that was the one that came out 6 hours after the last positive run. That would be highly unusual to have a week’s worth of runs- call it 28 positive to 1 negative.

The radar isn’t naked:

Sorry, Southern forecast area, that portion of the radar was actually naked, so I did not think it would be appropriate to leave it on there.

The first thing that jumps out at me is that intense cell over Rico; it’s been there a while. In fact, this radar shot is from 3:40 pm. None of this activity has moved very much. That means there is no dominant flow, and steering winds are nearly non-existent.

An excellent question would be: “What is it going to do?” But I would not ask myself that because I know I can’t give a confident answer.  I just remember the prior positive model runs had shown moist inflow coming between 5-9 pm. Also, an increase in PWATs and (storm) CAPE. So if you are out tonight, don’t be surprised either way. I hope it was an anomalous run; it would not be the first time!

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8/21/26 Friday 3:30 am

For today, I am tempted to bump up storm coverage all the way to “widespread”. However, I am only going to go to “scattered”, at least for the afternoon. I may change my mind in my afternoon update.

Models are showing a huge leap in dewpoint and PWAT values late afternoon. CAPE (available energy for storm formation) peaks between 5 pm and 9 pm. Enough for widespread evening and night storms. Again, I will see where we are at this afternoon before making that official.

For this weekend, at the moment, I see a return to “isolated with bullseyes”. However, it could change, and if we get hit overnight, there will be plenty of residual moisture to work with.

Here was my prognostication yesterday morning: “I am leaning towards scattered coverage today; however, I think I will stick with isolated showers. I will add that in the areas that do get a storm overhead, heavy rain will be possible. So it’s still hit-or-miss, but the hits could be big bullseyes!”

West and East were the big winners yesterday!  I am going to start with a couple of email reports:

Rd 37.8 5 mi NW of Mancos: 1.25″

Chicken Creek Road 41, just above Bauer Lake: 1.25″

Hesperus Leaning Oak Dr: 1.01″ (as of 5 pm Thurs)

Mayday: 0.33″

DWG Command Center: 0.27

Here are the station-generated reports:

West

Rd 38.7: 1.48″

Co Rd H: 0.21″

160: 0.31″

ROAD 42 RANCH: 0.60″

East Mancos: 0.38″

CO-140: 0.67″

S Elk Rn: 0.79″

N Rd: 0.43″

Mountain Top Rd: 0.95″

Thunderbird Rd: 0.40″

East (Pagosa area)

Cactus Dr: 0.40″

Backcountry Dr: 0.35″

Scenic Ave: 0.29″

Glen Eaton Dr: 0.70″

County Road 107: 0.28″

Wilderness Dr: 0.43″

Holiday Ave: 0.25″

Kelseya Cir: 0.29″

Wildwood Dr: 0.30″

Majestic Dr: 0.55″

Brookhill Dr: 0.34″

Rainbow Dr: 0.74″

W Log Hill Rd: 0.37″

Harman Ave: 0.69″

Central

Co Rd 502: 0.21″

The end. Nothing south or north!

I am going to do a better job of capturing the radar images today. The afternoon update will be after 2 pm.

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8/20/26 Thursday 4:00 am

For today’s forecast, I am torn between a couple of options. The dewpoints are still not where I would like to see them. But the European model shows better coverage, with slightly higher PWATs from yesterday.  Additionally, higher CAPE values are expected this afternoon; this indicates the model expects increased instability, which will fuel thunderstorm development.

I am leaning towards scattered coverage today; however, I think I will stick with isolated showers. I will add that in the areas that do get a storm overhead, heavy rain will be possible. So it’s still hit-or-miss, but the hits could be big bullseyes!

Yesterday, I reviewed precipitation coverage after forecasting isolated showers across the forecast area. Isolated showers mean 10%- 20% of the forecast area would be affected.

That is reflected in yesterday’s totals (until midnight). I have not changed the criteria; the threshold is still >0.20 inches.

 Sorry if this is difficult to read. I spent too much time formatting this list, and I still could not fix it. It was fine, but when I started adding email totals, it started inserting breaks.

Central:

Bayfield Garnet Wy 0.26″
Co Rd 501 Vallecito 0.89″

Coolwater 0.49″
Pinetree Dr 0.29″

Upper Forest Lakes 0.30″

Lake Simpatico 0.52″
Meadowbrook Dr 0.36″
Pine River Ranch Circle 0.22″
Old Cortez Trail 0.31″
Hawks Meadow Dr 0.43″
Co Rd 502 0.56″

Elk Meadow Rd 0.25″

CR 334  0.33″

Bellflower Rd 0.515″
Tecalote 0.34″
Encantado Ct 0.25″
Sage Hill Weather 0.45″
Box Canyon Farm 0.33″

Hillcrest 0.25″

Timberline 0.21
Aspen Dr 0.27″
Junction St 0.26″
Burnett Haul Rd 0.22″
White Water Dr 0.34″
US Hwy 550 @ Bell Canyon 0.22″

North
Lakewood Dr 1.03″
Spruce Mesa Dr 0.50″

West, South, and East: None

Here was the radar at the time

I show this so you can match some of the totals to the bullseyes.

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8/19/26 2:oo pm

Latest radar.

I already got a couple of reports in my email, but I spot-checked a few locations, and several came in just below the 0.20 threshold.  A couple had 0.30″-0.60″! So we will have a few totals to cover in the morning. Dewpoints around the area are up about 10 degrees, which is a good sign.

I wasn’t too crazy about the Euro late morning run, but I will wait until I see the overnight models in the morning to worry, or cheer…

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8/19/26 Wednesday 4:30 am

Today, isolated showers will favor higher elevations. As always, you can’t rule out an afternoon pop-up shower anywhere.

Yesterday I said this regarding storm development: “Thursday’s chances will be higher than Wednesday’s. Friday’s chance will be higher than Thursday’s, and so on. Dewpoints finally climb into ‘the zone’ by late Thursday or early Friday.”

That is still the case this morning. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are rising and will continue to rise today and every day through the weekend. However, we have a lot of dry air in place, and the dewpoints are rising, just not fast enough to produce widespread showers. Higher elevations can produce storms with lower PWAT and dewpoints, so they will be favored for precipitation development.

The European shows some of those storms drifting off the mountains today.

You have to weight the darker green values over the light green in this transitional environment. Without higher dewpoints and PWAT, some of those showers indicated by the light green will not make it to the ground without a “top-down” saturation.

Today, isolated showers will favor higher elevations. As always, you can’t rule out an afternoon pop-up shower anywhere.

For the rest of the week, tomorrow, scattered showers will be on tap across the forecast area. Friday, it looks like widespread showers will be the forecast. Saturday and Sunday: shower chances increase to likely.

What do those terms actually mean? Good idea; I have not gone through that in a while!

The term “coverage” is used when forecasting showers.  Percentages indicate the percentage of coverage (of the forecast area).

Isolated: 10%-20% (of the forecast area)

Scattered: 30%-50%

Widespread: 60%-70%

Likely: 80%-100%

Reach out if you have some rain this afternoon-not 6 drops, but enough that if you stood outside, you would get wet. If something happens before 2 pm, I will post an afternoon update.

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8/18/26 Tuesday 4:30 am

Once again, not a lot to talk about today, but things are going to change soon.  Precipitable Water Values will remain 90-100% of the average for this time of year.

Later tonight, those values will tick up slightly to around 110%. They will continue to increase on Wednesday into the 120-130%+. By Friday, those values will climb to 150% of average.

What this means is tomorrow’s precipitation chances (POP’s) will increase for afternoon thunderstorms. You know the drill: Thursday’s chances will be higher than Wednesday’s. Friday’s chance will be higher than Thursday’s, and so on. Dewpoints finally climb into “the zone” by Thursday or early Friday.

That pattern will remain in place for about 5 days as models show another short-term dry period beginning Tuesday or Wednesday (8/25- 8/26).

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8/17/26 Monday 4:30 am

Yep, boring. Today and tomorrow hold just a slight chance of high-elevation afternoon storms. Wednesday is starting to look more interesting on the European model, not so much on the others.

It looks like we will see a trough drop in from the NW. If this comes together, it should bump the high further east so we get some moisture to fuel more widespread storms. There are some indications that we could flip this temporary pattern from dry to wet again by next weekend.

I keep looking at the extended models. The 46-day model, which takes us through the end of September, shows seasonally average precipitation totals and seasonally average temperatures.

As I said, boring. But I am monitoring the situation.

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8/16/26 Sunday 5 am

A beautiful 45 degrees at the command center this morning! I see Silverton at 38, which is similar to many of the higher-elevation valleys in the state. I love it when the weather cools off!

Obviously, the monsoonal type of flow has shifted east. This is the story this week. It does not guarantee dry conditions (sometimes it just rains). We could see chances of afternoon high-elevation storms all week (nonsoon).

What is interesting is the models are bringing back heavy moisture flow next weekend. Saturday is 8/22. 8/22 was the date we kept seeing last month in the extended model runs, which showed heavy moisture returning. Both model runs could be wrong, but it’s something to keep an eye on this week.

Along those lines, I was happy to see this while running models.

Yes, that is snow on August 29th. Where is that? I believe this would be in the higher elevations (duh) of Summit County. The red circle with the 564 tells me the snow level would be 11,000′.

It’s not so much whether it will happen. It’s that we’re starting to see it show up in the models.  I continue to see long-term models showing some very cold temperatures this winter, relative to history.

I read the latest ENSO update from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center). It was unusually short. That indicates to me high conviction in their forecast.

They still don’t recognize the “Super El Niño” classification. But they do have their new system of parameters that they use to grade El Niño, which I am not crazy about. All of my ENSO knowledge, locked away in my mental vault, is compromised. It’s like trying to use the metric system if you are not a chef.

Anyway, they are predicting a 100% chance of an El Niño. A 90% chance that El Niño will be in the “Very Strong” category, which is the strongest category there is. They are also predicting a 67% chance of an historic event.

It may be; it is too early to tell. Several other factors will affect our winter this year. As we get closer, I will cover all of them, but as I said, it’s too early. I will be posting most days this week; I am sure the models will give us plenty to talk about.

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8/14/26 Friday 5:30 am

If the weather were my employee, I would say it’s not meeting my expectations.

The atmospheric conditions will be “ok” for storm development across the lower and mid-elevations.   Which means I can’t rule it out, but I am not going to get my hopes up.  Storm development will be much easier at higher elevations up north, from Telluride to Silverton (again).

Here are yesterday’s totals:

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Thursday 8/13 4:00 am

Yesterday, I remarked, “Is it a miss, or a late bloomer?” Fortunately, it wasn’t a complete miss. But the Durango Donut Forcefield was strong yesterday. I was looking at the radar and satellite imagery yesterday afternoon, yelling, “Come on!”

For today, models are not in consensus. Not even close. They are a mess (what else is new).

I don’t usually use precipitation forecasts from these daily models this time of year. I use them as guidance to determine the likelihood that storms will develop.

Here is the European model’s 24-hour precipitation forecast.

Contrast that with the NAM Hi-Res model.

Looking at other parameters, PWATs and Dew Point support storm development. Also, next week is up in the air as to which day storms will return.  One day at a time for now!

I was asleep when the selective storms slipped into several sites across the forecast area. Most of last night’s storm arrived/developed after 8 pm in the West and Central portions of the forecast area. There was a thunderstorm complex in NW Arizona late yesterday that I believe rotated in last night. If I see that again this afternoon, I will let you know.

Central

Glacier: 0.25″

Co Rd 521: 0.32″

West Bayfield: 0.40″

Lake Simpatico: 0.26″

Pinetree Dr: 0.23″

Vallecito: 0.58″

McCoy Creek Dr: 0.21″

Edgemont Meadows Rd: 0.22″

Box Canyon Farm: 0.38″

Co Rd 250: 0.24″

Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.24″

North

Silverton: 0.73″

Elektra Lake Lakewood Dr: 0.79″

Elektra Lake Spruce Meadow Dr: 0.76″

Columbine Rd: 0.51″

Alta Lakes Road: 0.41″

Sundance Ln: 0.28″

E Columbia Ave: 0.31″

N Fir St: 0.28″

West

Hesperus: 0.47″

Brandon’s Gate Northeast: 0.37″

Echo Basin: 1.17″

East Mancos: 0.29″

Co Rd H: 0.46″

Kline: 0.38″

South

Thunderbird Rd: 0.27″

Co Rd 302: 0.35″

East 

None

I will check in later.

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