Sunday Late Afternoon Changes: I Know, I Know

On November 1, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

11/1/26 Saturday 4:15 pm

9-R schools are closed tomorrow

Spooky situations today from Pagosa historic flood on the way and Junction Creek, backing up and flooding at the West 2nd bridge. To the Florida, finally going crazy downstream. Not to mention the County Road closures.

Minutes after posting my case about the snow levels not dropping early because the cold front was so far away, the snow levels dropped, nearly immediately. I was glued to the monitor I was typing on, not the ones with the radar becoming whiter and whiter with snow.

But this has nothing to do with the cold front. A strengthening, retrograding, closed low-pressure system in SE Colorado pulled most of the moisture to our east.

With tropical air out of the atmosphere, it reverted back to seasonal. Enough moisture remains, but the firehouse with heat on high above is gone.

Now, I am not saying we are in the clear. Tropical moisture remains in Flagstaff, Prescott, and west of Kingman, AZ, to St. George, plus everything up in SLC. This wouldn’t be there if the cold front were west of these areas.

In my mind, which clearly failed about an hour ago, it would be unlikely for that residual warm, damp moisture to raise snow levels.

So some good snow might fall, maybe even lower than expected. Sorry for the Roller Coaster; that’s how it works in SW Colorado. At least our tornado season is over…

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Sunday Afternoon Concerns and Flood Data

On November 1, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

11/1/26 Sunday 2:30 pm

I will cover the new river forecasts in a moment. If I didn’t post your hydrograph, nothing has changed since their earlier update (according to them)…

Overview

I am glad the River People updated, but still concerned. For example, they increased the forecast peak and CFS for Animas at Cedar Hill, but left the Animas at Durango unchanged (both locations).

Raising Cedar Hill straight into Flood Stage at 11.24 ft and 9,603 cfs while leaving Durango idling barely in Action Stage makes zero physical sense to me. Cedar Hill cannot magically conjure 9,600 cfs out of thin air unless the bulk of that volume passes straight through the Durango gauges first. Especially with the Junction Creek diversion this afternoon.

Also, I am concerned because the models continue to show the snow levels dropping before midnight, which would slow runoff. I hope it happens, but show of hands, long-term followers: how many times have we gone to bed seeing the models bring the cold front through in the middle of the night? Then we wake up look at the surface maps, and it’s still in western Utah. A lo of timest is the answer.

It’s still raining everywhere up to about 11,500. If you look at the Day Lodge webcam at Wolf Creek, look to the right, look below the deck, and check out the runoff.

If you have been looking at the webcams trying to decide what is rain and what is snow, don’t look at the color; look at the speed. Rain falls faster than snow.

All of this makes me question the aggressive NWS snowfall forecast for Purgatory. Now, it should be different for Telluride because when that front comes through, the flow will shift to the Northwest. So I could make a case for good snow there tomorrow.

Also, Wolf Creek is weird, it is such a wall it likes to suck every ounce of Southwest flow for hours/days after the moisture has left our area. Same situation; I could see Wolf Creek getting decent snow tomorrow.

Latest Flood Data: Again, if you are not on here, your situation is (supposedly) unchanged.

If something changes this evening and I am awake, I will post; otherwise, I will be up early.