Thursday Morning Update: Breaking Down The Weekend Storm

On By durangoweatherguy

11/12/26 Thursday 4:30 am

I have been concentrating on the bigger picture the last few days; it’s time to slow down and focus on the upcoming weekend.

Overview

Friday night, a small but moist closed low will come onshore near San Diego. This is subtropical moisture, so a little goes a long way. As the low moves east into Arizona and eventually New Mexico, just enough moisture will reach our area.

While this is happening, a monster low-pressure system that has been tormenting the  Canadian West Coast areas will drop down the California Coast. This system is intense. The models show this system’s internal pressure at 960 mb.  That is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.  Extremely cold Arctic air is entrained in this monster; it is showing heights down to 516 mb.

I was not planning on showing this, but I downloaded the images already so I could zoom in and see them better, so here we go.

That system is at the top right of the page.

Then I zoomed in on the system to double-check the intensity.

If you recall my post a week ago about snow levels, I explained the snow-level cheat codes based on millibars and elevations. In that same discussion, I talked about snow levels based on “thickness” levels. I will post a link to it at the end of this post.

In the above image, you see the first blue line, then 4 more. The first one is 540 mb; the next is 534 mb, then 528 mb, 522 mb then 516 mb. This indicates polar air being brought down from the Arctic.

Here is where all of this comes back to our area this weekend. That system will moderate as it approaches Northern California, but it is so huge that it will push cold air into our area and mix with the subtropical moisture from the earlier-mentioned small closed low to produce snow, with a 552 mb thickness level indicating snow at or above 8,000-8,500 feet.

How much? Not much according to the latest model runs… The passes will likely see 4-8 inches of snow. Below the snow levels, the lower elevations will see rain in the 0.50-inch range;  this could change, so I am keeping a close eye on any changes in the precipitation totals

Obviously, I got distracted by that monster system, which long-time followers know means I did not get much sleep. Oh well.

I will be back around noon or 1:00 pm. The El Niño update is coming out today; it should be interesting. I will try not to get too distracted by it.

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Link to: Thursday Update: Winter Weather Series Millibars And Elevations

Wednesday Afternoon Update: Saturday Snow and Rain

On By durangoweatherguy

11/11/26 Wednesday Noon

Overview

A couple more dry days before storm #1 rolls in. It still looks like the (all) snow level will hover between 8,000 and 8,500 feet. Cold rain will fall at lower elevations, with temps in the 30s. As of now, the first storm looks like the least impactful of the three. It doesn’t mean it won’t produce; it just means it will be less than the other two that look likely.

Storm #2 is supposed to arrive from Tuesday through Wednesday. It has some colder air at the end of the storm that may drive the snow levels down to the low-elevation areas.

Storm #3’s expected to arrive early Friday the 20th. It could be very impactful. Models show snow at all elevations for most of the 48 hours before it leaves the area.

Those of you holding a big get-together for Thanksgiving may want to buy most of your pantry and frozen items before Tuesday’s storm, because you know how it gets when the media starts talking up these storms and the Watches and Warnings are posted.

Plus, if this develops like I am seeing, the passes will likely close during and after the third storm. This could delay deliveries to our grocery stores. Also, those of you who rely on snow tires in the winter should probably just do it and not wait like everyone else. You are going to need them this winter anyway; might as well get it done before the rush.

I shared one model run last night showing the three storm snow totals. I want to pivot to liquid-equivalent three-storm totals.

European- it’s been pretty consistent with its totals for several runs.

GFS-The GFS is redeeming itself; this is a good-looking run from the GFS!

GFS AI- This would translate to several feet of snow in the La Platas and Wolf Creek; this crazy run would indicate 5 to 7 feet of snow for Wolf Creek from the three storms!

That’s it for the 14/15 day models. Tomorrow we should be able to look at the Canadian model (it’s a 10-day model). By the weekend, we will be able to add 3 or 4 more models, which will really beef up my confidence in these storms.

Next update Thursday morning.

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Wednesday Morning Update: Wet Weekend Back On?

On By durangoweatherguy

11/11/26 Wednesday 5:30 am

Overview

No immediate weather to talk about

I had originally targeted 11/14-11/15 as the beginning of the pattern change. I described a storm that would move into Arizona and New Mexico, “missing us to the south.”

That closed low is still coming onshore on Friday, but recent model runs show it tracking further north. Not a big storm, but it could bring 0.50-1.00 inches of liquid. The snow level is predominantly between 8,000 and 9,000 feet. If the models are correct, we could see a slow start Saturday morning, increasing throughout the day and quickly moving out of the area by Sunday morning. This would be the first mid-elevation shot of measurable snow (not just flurries).

If all goes to plan, next week we would see another fairly weak impulse coming through on Tuesday 11/17. Then the larger storm on 11/20 delivering snow to the lower elevations.

Last night, I shared the model’s interpretation of “a perfect storm.” What we won’t know for a few days is if we will see that big perfect storm, or just another smaller storm.

Either way, as I said, which I realize is confusing, I could make a case for either scenario. What I was trying to get across is that I believe there is a high percentage chance of a low-elevation snow-level event on 11/20-11/21; I just can’t judge the intensity yet.

Next update around 1 pm.

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Tuesday PM: Interesting Take?

On By durangoweatherguy

11/10/26 Tuesday 5 pm

I shouldn’t post this, but with this boring weather, I see models predicting an impactful pre-Thanksgiving, pre-Purgatory open storm. Huddle: It could change, for sure. But I hope that if it does, it either misses us or stays the same with low snow levels. We don’t want to deal with that much again.

Snowfall through November 24, according to this Euro run.

What am I supposed to do? Not share? Well, it will change-probably; I feel equally it could be a lot less or a lot more, a lot bigger storm. I am trying to narrow it down. I share all of this because I am in posting withdrawal.

Plus, worst-case-scenario moments: it seems like when mass amounts of people have to travel,  HS sports, holidays, doctor appointments in other cities, kids driving back to college. This is when the storms target us. Ridiculous. But a dependable forecast parameter.

The smartest scientist credential guy I have ever known, I believe, lives in London now with his brilliant wife and kids. They  used to follow me until they moved; I call him a friend; he called me a “scientist.” Sorry, what a huge snub to all of the real Scientists…

I drop that because I have heard people are referring to me as a Meteorologist. NOPE. Just a lifelong weather nerd lacking the discipline 40 years ago to earn that degree. Pretty sure things are getting interesting without the danger.

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Tuesday Update

On By durangoweatherguy

11/10/26 Tuesday 5 am

On Sunday I said this:

“If we believe the models, we may see a pattern change first affecting the West Coast around November 12th. By a week from today(11/15), moisture is expected to move into Arizona and New Mexico, mostly missing us, but another storm is on its heels that looks more promising. All models show this, though timing varies.”

What has changed:

The “mostly missing us moisture” moisture comes ashore 24 hours later, in the form of a cut-off low-pressure system entrained with a moderate amount of moisture.

It is going to dig further south, missing us, as expected. But not before paving the way.

Saturday morning: missed us.

Saturday morning: next system with moisture tap

Saturday afternoon (most likely will not arrive that quickly)

Zoomed-pretty juicy. Saturday afternoon (I think the timing will change). Snow level indicated at 8,000 feet.

Sunday morning (timing will likely change).

Fast forward to Monday night, November 16th. A much bigger storm with several pieces is on the way. I put the maps in motion; it’s easier to track. This is basically the week, from Monday night 11/16 to Sunday morning 11/22.

Zoomed-in version

Important to note that a lot can change in the details, timing, track, and intensity, as you should know. However, I do believe the pattern is changing. If the above monster verifies, we would snow in the lower elevations.

Probably a good time to stop. Normally, I wouldn’t share this much this far out, but the boring weather pattern is getting to me, and I wanted to let you know changes are likely, especially with ski areas opening soon and possible holiday travel.

 

 

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Sunday Update: Tracking The Pattern Change And The Demise of El Nino

On By durangoweatherguy

11/08/26 Sunday 4:00 am

A high-pressure ridge has dominated our weather, keeping the storm train well north of us.

If we beleive the models, we may see a pattern change first affecting the West Coast around November 12th. By a week from today, moisture is expected to move into Arizona and New Mexico, mostly missing us, but another storm is on its heels that looks more promising. All models show this, though timing varies.

I would love to roll out the precipitation maps now, but there is still too much uncertainty. If models remain consistent over the next couple of days, we can take a closer look.

Pivoting

I have been saying this Super El Niño may not technically set any records. We just started the final 3-month period to determine whether this will be a record, so it won’t be until February before anyone can declare it a record. But temps will have to sustain or warm for the next 3 months (through the end of January).

Here is the secret nobody talks about. NOAA runs a bias-corrected version of their over-exuberant CFS model. It shows El Niño has already peaked and ocean temps will fall dramatically.

Before I show you NOAA’s data, let me explain how and why they do this. They use their CFS model to forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Their CFS model is inconsistent and tends to run warm. Here is what they do. They take the model run, then load in all the actual results (versus the forecast) to correct the model’s biases.

Here is what nobody talks about.

If you follow the dashed black line (the mean), it shows these temps falling off a cliff after peaking in October. Guess what has not happened since October: The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Train. In October, we were seeing multiple hurricanes forming off the southern Mexican Coast and the Central American Coast.

Not anymore. The EPAC hurricane season doesn’t end for three weeks, so we may still see something develop.  But I don’t think it would be a stretch to suggest a correlation between El Niño peaking during what now looks like the peak of the hurricane season.

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Thursday Update: Winter Weather Series Millibars And Elevations

On By durangoweatherguy

11/05/26 Thursday 4:30 am

These “Winter Weather Series” posts will be lengthy, but I will try to make them easy to understand and interesting to read. Rather than skimming through it, read it when you have time to absorb it. With what looks like a very snowy winter ahead, I will be using these terms a lot

Millibars vs Inches of Mercury

A term forecasters and meteorologists throw around a lot is millibars. They use them to track approximate rain vs. snow levels and to track storms. They use them to track the Polar Vortex, high-pressure ridges, and blocking patterns.

It’s not complicated; millibars indicate air pressure. Most modern weather stations convert air pressure to sea-level equivalent (MSL). So the true air pressure is effectively hidden behind the translation.

You can measure air pressure in two ways. Either millibars (MB) or inches of mercury (inHg). Inches of mercury is the more common measure to most people; millibars are more common with forecasters.

Some of us are old enough to remember that it was common to own a barometer. They were decorative and would sit on a fireplace mantel or an office desk; if the pressure was low, the dial would say “Stormy”; if high, it would say “Clear” or “Pleasant”.

When you watch hurricane coverage on the news, you hear about Hurricane intensity.  Intensity is indicated by categories 1 through 5. Meteorologists determine categories using central pressure (millibars) and observed wind speeds from hurricane hunter aircraft. Hurricanes become major hurricanes when the central pressure drops to 964 millibars (MB).

Air pressure lowers with elevation; we live at elevation.  “Standard” sea level is 1013.25 MB or 29.92 (inHg).  As I said, most weather stations convert to sea-level pressure automatically regardless of your elevation, so it’s misleading.

My weather station indicates 30.15 (inHg). I live at 7450 feet; my true air pressure is 22.89 (inHg). In millibars, sea-level pressure is 1013(MB). At my elevation, my actual reading is 775.40(MB).

Why It Matters With Our Weather

Storm Tracking

Forecasters use (MB) readings to track storms and help determine snow levels. Here is a map we call “the 500(MB):

Look at the MB lines from top to bottom: 564, 567, 570, 573, etc. This indicates high pressure with “pleasant” weather.

Here is an example of low pressure (stormy)

We have two examples. The huge storm in the west, and the smaller storm in the east. See the circles of lines? That monster in the Northwest shows 513, 516, 522, 528, etc. 513(MB) is a very, very strong storm. It’s going to absolutely pound Washington and Oregon.

Snow Levels

Here is a GFS wishcast for November 19th.

I chose this because it shows all of the snow levels I monitor for storms. 552, 546,  540. These are also referred to as “thickness” levels.

At 540(MB), the rain/snow line is all the way down to 5,000 feet (elevation)

546(MB)=6,500 feet, so if you live in town, Durango, you will get snow when 546 is overhead.

552(MB)= 8,000 feet.

558(MB)=9,500 feet.

564(MB)=11,000 feet

For the most part, that is all you need to know when you look at my forecast maps. I am going to make these Winter Weather Series accessible on the home page of the site. It won’t be right away, but it is on the list.

Next up during this calm weather break: an El Niño update

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Wednesday Weather

On By durangoweatherguy

11/4/26 Wednesday 5:45 am

A quick-moving, mostly dry storm will move into the Central Mountains later today, mostly targeting Crested Butte. Telluride could get 2 to 3 inches of snow, the 550 passes could get a couple of inches, and Ouray might even pick up a quick inch or so. I say could and might because sometimes the models push these quick storms too far south.

Models are trying to bring through another small storm around November 12th (a week from tomorrow). Then if the models are correct, we could be in for a pattern change around November 14/15th. Much colder air and likely the first low-elevation snow of the season.

If you were wanting a break from the weather, and that is probably most of us right now, you have some time. I can’t tell yet what to expect immediately after the potential storm around the 15th. The models only extend through November 18th right now; I will have a better idea by Sunday. Most importantly, I don’t see any tropical activity over the next 2 weeks.

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Wednesday Neighborhood Question

On By durangoweatherguy

11/4/26 Wednesday

Having a large following has an advantage: I can ask questions specific to my DW2 neighbors, like this: Has anyone in the neighborhood lost their mailbox key? I have looked everywhere. I am hoping someone can confirm whether I need to go to the post office or go through the HOA to get the lock replaced and a new key.

I am trying to avoid a wasted trip to town because it is a huge deal to get Susan in the car and go to town; it disrupts her and takes me most of the day to get her back on schedule.

I am obviously behind on my weather update; I will get that out as soon as I can.

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Tuesday Update

On By durangoweatherguy

11/3/26 Tuesday 5 am

I have no active weather threats to share. I used to send out boring weather alerts when this happened. Now, boring is good.

There is a chance of very light showers tomorrow. It could deliver a couple of inches of snow to Telluride and the NW flow beneficiaries. Nothing to worry about.

I recognize people are trying to put their lives back together; many are still without power.  So while I won’t go totally silent during the weather time-out, I need to spend some time putting my own home in order. I have a lot of deferred housework, cleaning, laundry, etc., to catch up on.

I also need to catch up on the international weather, seasonal outlooks, etc. So I will have a better picture of what is coming our way.

It looks like, for now, the Eastern Pacific Hurricane factory will be on pause in the near term, which has been the primary driver for us for over 2 months now. This is another sign that El Niño is waning, rather than ramping up for winter.

Over the coming days, I will share the data with you. The raw data shows we have peaked. If you like snow, this is a good sign.

One thing we are starting to see is the early weakness in the Polar Vortex.  I will get into this more in the coming days, but everything is backward when discussing the PV: A weak Polar Vortex and Sudden Stratospheric Warming mean colder outbreaks. Weak and Strat Warming = Cold.

This seems like a good place to stop. My next update will be tomorrow morning.

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