Obviously, I have not been able to keep my posting promises. I do feel guilty about that because there is a core batch of people who keep me “open for business”. They expect me to give them information, and I expect the same from myself.  No matter what, that will never change. If there is anything impacting the weather, no matter what. I will get it out. Don’t give up on me. Have gotten a lot of cancellations lately.

Things have changed a lot with Sus. Things have started getting bad early now. It used to be high maintenance, starting in the afternoon. Lately, it has started earlier. So I do use AI. I feel like I get clinical information when nobody else will give it to me. I rely on Gemini’s latest reads. ChatGPT and Claude are having big issues. You might want to research if using. Maybe my interpretation is incorrect. Check for yourself

With Gemini, I have at least 50 pages of summarized clinical notes. (Yes, Old Guy printed them out).

I asked how I would even describe what is happening, so my/our followers would know what is going on, and why it may “seem” like I am not on top of my forecasts, like I used to be.

The AI actually has videos I have uploaded. Again, divisive to some. But as I approach 62, I understand that Google AI has access to every published medical study. Including video footage of tens of thousands of videos. analysis.  I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer (trolls will have fun with that), but I do have a firm grasp on The Scientific Method. So the scientists reflecting on the data they posted in their studies are post-hypothesis.

Anyway, here was the conversation:

DWG:

 

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

4/2/26 Thursday 1 pm

Nice event! It exceeded every forecaster’s expectations-Wolf Creek 19 inches, Telluride and Purgatory 11 inches.

I remember getting an email about a month ago asking if I thought the storms would return. As I always say, it’s not if a pattern change will happen, it’s when. My answer was that the storms would return as soon as Purg closes.

At the time, I was kinda joking. It’s similar to only getting big storms on a big holiday travel weekend.

I got another email just a couple of days ago. They asked, “Is this going to be a pattern change or was it just a one-off?”

I said I would call it a pattern shift. I said we would likely enter a period defined by frequent troughs and weak ridges.

As you remember, we started tracking yesterday’s storm quite a while before it arrived. It was great work by the GFS to sniff it out early and stay on it.

Which brings me to my point: look at what the GFS is sniffing out now.

Below is the GFS’s total liquid precipitation for April 8th-13th (basically a week from today).

That’s 40 inches of snow at Purgatory. Ouch. I will be watching every day!

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

4/1/26 Wednesday 2:30 pm

Sorry, this is so late; I’ve had a challenging day.

Here at the house, we had 1.89 inches of rain. I saw Wolf Creek was up to 17 inches and reporting heavy snow.

Just a reminder, very cold (freezing) temps overnight. Likely cold enough to kill stuff.

I’ll be back tomorrow early.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

3/31/26 Tuesday 11:30 am

Webcams are showing rain and snow showers already underway. This is excellent because it”primes” the atmosphere for the bigger event tonight. Think of a dry sponge; it won’t work until it is saturated. Same thing for heavy precipitation, it won’t fall until the atmosphere is saturated.

The models all came in great, again!

European

Canadian

GFS

German

UKMET

But here is the model I am heavily weighting in my forecast.

NBM-Liquid

NBM Snow Forecast

This will be a mostly rain event for most. Some snow level models show snow falling to between 8,000 and 8,500 ft on Wednesday. I am not expecting much in the way of accumulation.

The biggest winners will be the 4 passes.

Wolf Creek,  Red Mountain, Molas, Coal Bank: 16 to 20 inches.

Lizard Head will come in a little lighter with 10 to 14 inches.

Telluride: 5 to 9 in town, 8-12 inches on the mountain.

For everyone else, your rain totals will be orographically driven. Meaning elevation will determine what you get.

Below 6,500: 0.6 to 0.80 inches of rain.

6,500 to 7,300: 0.80 to 1.00 inches.

7,400 to 7,800:  1.00 to 1.40 inches

7,800 and above: 1.20 to 1.70 inches.

I am still keeping my eyes peeled for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings for below-freezing temperatures. I will address that tomorrow.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

3/31/26 Tuesday 5:00 am

Slept in again. I can’t decide if that is a good thing or a bad thing. Either way, I am a little behind this morning, so the same plan as yesterday. I will get the updated model maps out by noon.

I can tell you, they all look great. The European finally caught up with the other models and is showing high totals!

I will get into the details in my next post. Also, avoid travel over passes tonight and tomorrow morning. We are going to see intense snowfall rates above 9,000 (or so). Maybe some of the heaviest (inches per hour) that we have seen this year!

Stay tuned…

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

3/30/26 Monday 11:00 am

Before I get started, here is an update on the second storm. Currently, it looks as if the snow will be limited to the extreme northern portions of the forecast area. However, it ushers in a cold front that will affect all elevations with the chance of a hard freeze.

Heads up: current model forecasts show lows in the low to mid 20s in Durango on Friday and Saturday mornings, and mid to low 20s on Sunday morning.

Hopefully, everfyone took my advice and did not plant!

Storm One

Models that increase precipitation totals within 48 hours of a storm arriving are a reassuring vote of confidence!

That is exactly what is happening!

For reference, use the map below.

Canadian

Canadian GDPS (experimental)

European

 

GFS

German ICON

UKMET

That is a great example of model consistency!

Next update tomorrow morning.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

3/30/26 Monday 4:30 am

I slept in accidentally and woke up to some updates I need to get installed which puts me a little behind. What I am going to do is wait to upload the new model precipitation totals until the latest model runs are generated. I will have the latest for you before 1 pm.

But here is what I can share briefly. 24 hours ago, the GFS had what looked to be an anomalous model run. That certainly turned out to be the case, because the morning model run came in strong late yesterday morning.

The other good news is that ALL the model runs came in heavier overnight. They are also indicating an early-evening onset of precipitation tomorrow night (instead of after midnight).

All of these factors are increasing my confidence in this event! I will have more details for you in a few hours.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

3/29/26 Sunday 3 am

Before I get started, remember these are weather model totals. This is not my forecast. So if the models get it wrong, you don’t need to email me and tell me how wrong my forecast was.

The biggest change in the overnight model runs was timing. Most models now show the precip starting by 3 am Wednesday; consensus is good to have; however, when it comes to storm timing, that can change a lot in the final 24 hours, so we’ll keep watching that. Most models also see precipitation ending by late Wednesday/very early Thursday.

GFS appears to have an anomalous precipitation run, so for now I am going to leave that off the list and see how it looks the rest of the day.

Here is your location guide if maps are not your thing…

I am going to stick with a conservative 10-to-1 SLR (snow-to-liquid ratio). So, for Telluride and Wolf Creek (as well as the other mountain areas above 9,000 ft), just move the decimal point one space to the right for the snow equivalent.

European

In this case, the .97 (above)at Telluride becomes 9.7 inches of snow

UK Met

ICON (Germany)

Canadian

Canadian Experimental GDPS

Just a note to Cortez residents, don’t get too excited about these totals. Some of the lower resolution models read the elevation of nearby Sleeping Ute and blend the totals over Cortez. Higher-res models are currently showing a total of .30 to .40.

My next update will be on Monday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

3/28/26 Saturday 4 am-ish

All models are still in agreement on the next storm. ETA is sometime on Wednesday. I say “sometime” because there is a 12-18-hour discrepancy in when the precipitation starts. Models range from 1 am Wednesday to early afternoon Wednesday.

The GFS shows the earliest start of the precipitation. The Canadian shows the latest start. There are differences in how long the storm lasts. The average of the models shows a duration of about 16 hours.

Then it gets complicated. Will there be a second round of precipitation? If so, will it be on Friday? Saturday? Sunday? Models are really struggling with that piece.

All of the 13 models I mentioned yesterday are still in agreement on the Wednesday storm. But they diverge on the chances of. When (or if) we will see a second storm. I am hoping to get a better read on that by Monday morning.

Here is an updated look at the maps in motion.

First up is the “big picture” view. This allows you to see the storm progression. Also, notice that the “monsoonal signature” in Mexico is still showing up in the models. Lastly,  notice the next storm stretching from NW Wyoming down to Salt Lake.

US view from Monday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. Remember, green is rain, blue is snow. The darker the shades, the heavier the precipitation.

Colorado view

This particular run shows slightly lower snow levels (8100 ft). I am not expecting that at this time, but I am watching closely.

My next update will be on Sunday, and we will start delving into precipitation totals from the models.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

3/27/26 Friday 5 am ish

Currently 43 degrees at DWG HQ, interestingly enough, a lightning detection 22-25 miles away a couple of minutes ago.

This is likely a false detection, however, over the last couple of days, the European model has been showing a few pop-up showers, mostly over the northern portions of the forecast area today.  I have mostly disregarded this because, if it verifies, there likely wouldn’t be enough to measure. (so what good is it)…

The main story continues to be the changes that all of the models are showing for next week. I can’t find a model that does not show these changes. Here is the list of models I have checked.

• NBM
• NBM v5
• European
• European AI
• GFS
• GFS AI
• Canadian
• Canadian GDPS
• German ICON
• UKMET
• European Ensemble
• GFS Ensemble
• Canadian Ensemble

There are minor differences in precipitation start and stop times, but the overall theme is the same: Light precipitation possible on Monday and Tuesday as moisture moves into the area, giving way to more significant precipitation by midweek (likely Wednesday/Thursday). Mostly rain below 9,000 feet, snow above. Towards the end of the event, some models are showing snow levels dropping to 8,000 feet.

Precipitation amounts vary widely, but this is mostly due to differences in model resolution.  As I said, it is way too early to talk about precipitation event totals — maybe this weekend we can dive into them if the model consistency continues.

My next update will be on Saturday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report