Tuesday Afternoon: Starting To Come Together

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 12:30 pm

Up-to-the-minute changes (subject to more changes, of course)

No precipitation Friday. The first part of the event starts after midnight and before 9 am Saturday. Models depict very, very light precipitation Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this Saturday event doesn’t happen.

Early to mid-morning on Sunday, the moisture plume arrives in our forecast area, with heavy rain and sticky wet snow.

Precipitation continues all day; the snow level steadily drops in the afternoon as the cold front to our northwest filters in. If the models are correct, the snow levels could flirt with 8,000 feet Monday morning before the system moves out.

Here are the latest model runs; it might just be me, but all but one of them look a little more similar.

European

NBM

Euro AI

UKMET

GFS AI (crazy?

We will see what tomorrow brings.

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Tuesday Morning: Model Mayhem

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 4 am

Yesterday morning’s model runs threw a wrench in the whole weekend setup! The European in particular had consistently shown 2″ to 3″ of liquid precipitation for the event, but one complete model run flipped to a solution showing 0.50″ to 1.00″.

This happened Sunday mid-morning as well. Then it flipped back. The other models are split between all-in and expecting less.

There are some wholesale changes in the big picture. Initially, the setup showed the remnants of Vance coming over the border in two batches. The first batch goes through Texas heading into the plains states.

The second batch comes several hours later through Arizona and into our area, bringing precipitation late Friday and early Saturday morning. This batch never really showed high precipitation totals. In those earlier runs, heavier precipitation arrived later Saturday and intensified on Sunday.

Now things have changed; models show the initial moisture batch is struggling to reach far enough north to bring precipitation to our area, and the deeper Pacific tropical airmass is slowing until Sunday, potentially lasting into Monday in some cases.

What does all of this mean? To me, it means we have to wait for better consensus on timing and track.

One the one hand, we are still seeing some models pump out high event totals:

Canadian:

GFS AI

European AI

On the other hand, some of these totals have come down (though some are up since yesterday afternoon, which adds to the confusion).

European (Legacy)

NBM

German

You will notice that the totals on these last 3 models are less than they were 24 hours ago. If we hadn’t experienced the last 2 months of heavy precipitation, we would consider these totals significant, “only 1 to 2 inches.”

So while some of these models have trended lower, Saturday night through Monday still could be a significant event with multiple impacts.

Snow levels will still be around 10,000 feet, and they could drop lower Sunday late or Monday morning. That is still something to be aware of for travel over the passes.

Hopefully, the next batches of model runs over the next 4 to 7 hours will show more consensus, but I am not holding my breath; there are a lot of pieces to this puzzle, and I left out most of those details in this update; too much could change between now and then.

I will be back around 1 pm.

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Monday Morning: Our Next Storm

On By durangoweatherguy

10/26/26 Monday 3:45 am

Overview

Expect nice fall weather through midweek. Flow will shift to the SW on Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures and increasing humidity levels by Friday.

Upcoming Storm

Yesterday I was so close to talking about next weekend’s storm. I saw 4 very aggressive model runs showing eye-catching rain and snow totals, then I saw one with slightly lower totals than the other 4. So I decided to hold off until this morning.

Yes, snow levels will be lower with this next storm. For now, I am pretty comfortable with snow starting at 9,500-10,000 feet and then lowering through the weekend, perhaps much lower by Monday morning.

Given what the region has experienced, I felt a sense of urgency to share this information. But really, I’ve been hinting about this Halloween Storm for a while.

When I give you hints, it means I am seeing activity I have to keep an eye on, but I am not ready to commit because it is too far out. Fast forward to today, and we’re just a few days away. It’s time to start sharing.

With the last event, the model consensus was locked in on precipitation totals. By the way, the models have consistently underforecasted the highest totals over the last 2 months. That is something to keep in mind when interpreting “crazy” totals.

This system is slightly different than the last few. Here is what is the same: strong low pressure traveling down the coast, picking up tropical moisture to dump over the forecast area over a couple of days as the low pressure tracks across the region.

Here is what is different, and why the models may be struggling a little. There are two sources of tropical moisture. The first is remnants of Hurricane Vance.

The models are not sure how much of that moisture will get wrapped up with the low because, as we have seen, these lows take their time, and as I said the other day, the strengthening deep low-pressure systems don’t care what the models are forecasting; they are going to do what they want.

The other source is a plume of tropical moisture originating east of Hawaii. This plume has some Atmospheric River(esque) attributes. But unlike the mid-winter ARs that usually bury the Sierra and leave us with paltry leftovers, this one is different. This firehouse is pointed northeast right over San Diego. The models think it will take the familiar path directly into our forecast area.

I am going to stop there on the setup. Even I get weather fatigue after a while, so let’s move on to the early model forecasts.

I am going to hold off on projected snow totals for now, likely until Thursday or Friday. That said, many models forecast 1 to 2 feet of snow above 9,500 feet.

The initial storm window is: Onset, late Friday to early Saturday. Departure: Early Monday to early Tuesday. I’ll tighten this up as we get closer.

Here are the liquid equivalent forecasts for this next event; as always, these are subject to change (by a little or by a lot) before it starts. Also, don’t take these as exact forecasts. Look at the highs and the lows and use that as a range.

European

NOAA’s NBM

European AI

A huge smoothing factor with this version of the model. Keep in mind what I said about guidance versus forecast.

AI GFS “crazy” totals.

Canadian

What does this all mean for additional flooding? That is the question. On one hand, it could mean a lot of precipitation falling on already saturated soils. On the other hand, with lower snow levels, runoff from higher elevations may be limited this time.

I know there is a lot of “maybes ” and “potentiallys” in this post. That is normal a few days out.  I am not trying to worry anyone yet. But I don’t want to spring this on everyone without a warning on Thursday or Friday, when the Winter Storm Watches come out for areas over 9,500 feet.

I would rather be wrong and have everyone be aware than wait until I am 100%. If anything changes, I will post again this afternoon.

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Sunday Morning

On By durangoweatherguy

10/25/26 Sunday 4 am-

With the less urgency across the forecast area, I have been looking at long-term model runs.  Very interesting; I have already vaguely referred to next weekend’s storm. I am seeing model consensus on timing, but precipitation totals are all over the map, from significant but manageable to dangerous again.

Speaking of dangerous, I thought Shiprock was bad; it was, but look at Bluff. It has not peaked yet.

Devastating…7 pm peak today at 48.4 feet, with a current observation of 20.39 feet!

While yesterday’s main tropical firehose has shifted east, our local radar shows plenty of lingering wrap-around moisture over the area this morning. Expect scattered showers and mountain mix to linger today before we finally get into a dry window this week.

Our residual moisture will also create its own weather today; it won’t take much to fire up a storm or two (wet likes to stay wet). Models are very conservative with the activity and potential totals through this evening. I won’t rely on them too heavily today.

Local radar (7:15 am) shows these showers already moving up from New Mexico again.

Have a good day. I will be keeping an eye on the situation and post as needed

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Saturday Night Thoughts: Thinking Of Ship Rock, NM

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 5:45 pm

I hate to turn people down for forecast area requests. If it is not an area I know thoroughly, I don’t pretend I have all the answers. Weather can be a big deal. When I get a question about a travel route, I want to give the best, most accurate, and helpful reply I can.

I don’t know much about New Mexico weather. I know about 85% of Colorado weather tendencies after 33 years of living here. I met my wife 33 years ago- no coincidence; I figured out this was the place for me.

So I get a number of requests for New Mexico coverage. I also get a lot of requests from South Fork, Alamosa, Center, etc. I have no idea how to help these people. If I had time to learn these areas, I would, but I am otherwise too consumed to put in the study work.

Jeff Gets Right To The Main Point Below (he allegedly promises)

A lot of disasters in the region the last couple of days. Pagosa, my goodness. Who is talking about Arboles over the last several days? Our county roads?

Pivot:

Shiprock, New Mexico: Currently, Not Receding Yet

All of the other hydrographs have dropped like a rock? Why? Most of it goes here, to Shiprock, just west of the confluence of everything coming from our forecast area and beyond.

So sending out your good vibes, whatever your choice, is a good idea tonight

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Saturday Afternoon: Flood Warning Extended, Busy Day

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 pm-4:15 pm

NWS is all over us with coverage right now, which is great. Thank you!

Here is their latest:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

COC007-053-067-252130-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0024.261024T2131Z-261025T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Northwestern Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southwestern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until 330 PM MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads
  remain closed due to flooding. Low-water crossings are inundated
  with water and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 329 PM MDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain in the
    warned area due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing Between 2
    and 4 inches of rain have fallen since Thursday morning.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the
    warned area. This could cause additional rises within rivers,
    creeks and streams.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad,
    Hesperus, Breen, Vallecito, Mayday, Kline, Marvel, Tiffany,
    Allison and Redmesa.

Show of hands-especially for long-term followers: Who remembers them ever working La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad, Breen, Kline, Tiffany, Allison, and Red Mesa into anything they have ever, ever, ever put out?

No sense in doing a model update this afternoon; they have struggled all day long. We will take another look in the morning. I won’t post until then. Unless I need to.

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Saturday Mid Morning Update-Breen/CR 140 Area

On By durangoweatherguy

Saturday 10:50 am

A very potent thunderstorm is taking place. I saw the cell on both radars, and a weather station was directly under it.

These cells coming up from New Mexico are getting some orographic lift, which is intensifying them. They are stronger than the one that hit me this morning.

This particular location is south of Breen, just south of Harrison Lane. They already had 2.8″ this morning. I was watching peak rainfall rates of 10.01″ per hour!

Be vigilant; this is what I was concerned about. Cells like this can hit any location in the forecast area!

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Saturday Update: Weekend Showers And Thunderstorms

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 am- 6:30 am

I haven’t addressed this in a while, but the time I put at the beginning of each post is when I sit down at my desk and start perusing the models. I am trying to get into the habit of putting the time I finish before I hit the publish button.

Overview:   Wet likes to stay wet… Showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow, moving out of the area late Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall today.

This should give way to 4 or 5 days of temporarily dry weather while the storm track retreats north of our area.

Then, Friday night into Saturday, models are advertising another multi-day storm. I know. It’s becoming a familiar setup: a west coast low-pressure system combines with tropical moisture and gets funneled into our area. It’s too early to dig into this. I will need to see a couple more days of model runs before I have any confidence in the details

News?

I am not sure when this happened, but the local radar is working; at least in Durango, I noticed it last night. It is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. It picks up the activity below the Grand Junction/National Radar.

“La Plata Live Radar” (these radar screenshots were taken at 5:20 am)

BUT, you can’t rely on it 100%; it has a very limited range, so you need to check both local radar and the site’s Hi-Res Radar. These screenshots were taken at the same time (5:20 am)

“Hi-Res Radar”

To switch between the two, click the layers icon at the top left of the screen, right above the full-screen button. For the La Plata Live Radar, I like to switch to “Dark” mode; for Hi-Res, I leave it on “Satellite” mode.

Fingers crossed it works this well in the winter!

Current Weather

So far, the activity has been spotty, but when the first storm blew up over my neighborhood at 4 am, I got brief heavy rain that dropped 0.20″ in a couple of minutes. The rainfall rate briefly hit 3.57″ per hour.

Since then, I have had occasional on-and-off showers (here comes another one at 6:20 am). It appears the La Plata radar has a little longer lag time than the national radar.

Based upon this early activity, I fear the models are severely underforecasting this weekend event, and I am very concerned! I feel like I am doing a play-by-play here: this latest cell briefly measured rain intensity of 4.09″/hr.

I already have had 0.61″ up here in DW2. It’s going to be a long day!

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River Forecast Site Issues- Don’t Buy It!

On By durangoweatherguy

Friday 5 pm

It occurs to me that these stage and flow forecasts are displaying a baseline recession curve. That means they show what would happen without any more rain.

This is what happened with the Dolores River and Mancos River when I woke up cranky and got in trouble (again) this morning. If you missed it, we went two days with CBRFC (NOAA’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) forecasting no problems with the Dolores River, while the experts (local residents) emailed me with their concerns. I woke up at 3 am this morning, and their forecast peak was over action stage.

Dolores locals (many whitewater rafters who understand all of this better than I) tell me they are concerned that, at a certain level, the river will take back its historic floodplain. It’s called channel avulsion. Water doesn’t like to be engineered; eventually, water wins.

In the railroad days of the late 1800s and early 1900s, they literally moved the Dolores River to protect the tracks and support a new town layout.

Then early  October 1911, a massive Eastern Pacific Hurricane recurved and turned a firehose over what is now our forecast area (sound familiar?). The Dolores River re-occupied (for a while) its former home.

This was the same storm that flooded Durango in 1911, and Pagosa, and everywhere in our forecast area. The Animas blew right through Durango with 25,000 cfs, washing out the bridges at 15th Street—including the Denver & Rio Grande railroad bridge right where the train used to cross —even after they desperately parked coal railcars on it to try to weigh it down (geniuses)…

Sorry, huge rabbit hole.

Whatever I do, I am not going to talk about the Post Halloween Storm. Yes, Moms and Dads, I looked at the Demons away schedule.

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More Flood Warnings

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 pm

Thunderstorms are moving into parts of the forecast area. They will become more widespread this evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
  
COC007-053-067-242145-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0021.261023T2157Z-261024T2145Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ARCHULETA CO-HINSDALE CO-LA PLATA CO-  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY  
  
* WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWESTERN ARCHULETA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  SOUTHWESTERN HINSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS CONTINUES. SEVERAL STRUCTURES ARE  
  FLOODED, AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD  
  FLOODING IMPACTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 350 PM MDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF  
    DAMAGE AND FLOODING IMPACTS. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND HIGH  
    AND WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO  
    1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
    DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPING TOMORROW.  
    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING  
    AND FLASH FLOODING .  
  - THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...  
    ANIMAS RIVER, LA PLATA, LOS PINOS, AND VALLECITO CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, LA PLATA, FALFA, OXFORD, BONDAD,  
    HESPERUS, BREEN, VALLECITO, MAYDAY, KLINE, MARVEL, TIFFANY,  
    ALLISON AND REDMESA.  

I remain on standby…

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