8/14/26 Friday 5:30 am

If the weather were my employee, I would say it’s not meeting my expectations.

The atmospheric conditions will be “ok” for storm development across the lower and mid-elevations.   Which means I can’t rule it out, but I am not going to get my hopes up.  Storm development will be much easier at higher elevations up north, from Telluride to Silverton (again).

Here are yesterday’s totals:

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Thursday 8/13 4:00 am

Yesterday, I remarked, “Is it a miss, or a late bloomer?” Fortunately, it wasn’t a complete miss. But the Durango Donut Forcefield was strong yesterday. I was looking at the radar and satellite imagery yesterday afternoon, yelling, “Come on!”

For today, models are not in consensus. Not even close. They are a mess (what else is new).

I don’t usually use precipitation forecasts from these daily models this time of year. I use them as guidance to determine the likelihood that storms will develop.

Here is the European model’s 24-hour precipitation forecast.

Contrast that with the NAM Hi-Res model.

Looking at other parameters, PWATs and Dew Point support storm development. Also, next week is up in the air as to which day storms will return.  One day at a time for now!

I was asleep when the selective storms slipped into several sites across the forecast area. Most of last night’s storm arrived/developed after 8 pm in the West and Central portions of the forecast area. There was a thunderstorm complex in NW Arizona late yesterday that I believe rotated in last night. If I see that again this afternoon, I will let you know.

Central

Glacier: 0.25″

Co Rd 521: 0.32″

West Bayfield: 0.40″

Lake Simpatico: 0.26″

Pinetree Dr: 0.23″

Vallecito: 0.58″

McCoy Creek Dr: 0.21″

Edgemont Meadows Rd: 0.22″

Box Canyon Farm: 0.38″

Co Rd 250: 0.24″

Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.24″

North

Silverton: 0.73″

Elektra Lake Lakewood Dr: 0.79″

Elektra Lake Spruce Meadow Dr: 0.76″

Columbine Rd: 0.51″

Alta Lakes Road: 0.41″

Sundance Ln: 0.28″

E Columbia Ave: 0.31″

N Fir St: 0.28″

West

Hesperus: 0.47″

Brandon’s Gate Northeast: 0.37″

Echo Basin: 1.17″

East Mancos: 0.29″

Co Rd H: 0.46″

Kline: 0.38″

South

Thunderbird Rd: 0.27″

Co Rd 302: 0.35″

East 

None

I will check in later.

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8/12/26 Wednesday

I ama little disappointed with what I see on the radar so far. Is it a miss, or a late bloomer?

Anyway, I saw a couple of winter outlooks, both from reputable sources, so I thought I would share them.

I wanted to get ahead of the questions about specific winter forecasts. Here are the only two Winter Forecasts I “endorse”.  OpenSnow and WeatherBELL Analytics.

OpenSnow: As most of you know, has a very talented group of individuals and Meteorologists. They specialize in winter weather and do a great job.

WeatherBELL Analytics also does a great job. They actually explain how they come up with their forecasts. They also do a lot of weather consulting in winter-affected industries as well as the energy markets.

Fortunately, the two companies have very similar forecasts.

WeatherBELL dials it in. They are calling for 125-150% of average snowfall for our forecast area. Their temperature forecast is predicting average temperatures 3 degrees below average — that is a lot.

You might be wondering why I have not included NOAA. NOAA does not have a winter forecast per se. They have a probability model that most people interpret as an above/below forecast.

My next update will be in the morning.

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8/12/26 3:30 am

Sorry again about the “late send” on Tuesday afternoon’s update. Sometimes I have so much going on at once that it is very easy for me to get distracted. If you have ever walked into a room and forgotten why, that is how I am from about 11am until I go to bed.

There was some exciting convection in the forecast area yesterday. More on that later. The bad news was the storms were “dartboard” showers. The big ones “trained” over the heavier-hit areas. Training storms are storms that appear to stall over an area, but they are actually a series of cells that keep developing over the same area because conditions are perfect for development.

Dewpoints in the lower and mid-elevations are between 50 and 55 degrees this morning. Combined with existing moisture, it should be pretty easy to get storms forming this afternoon. The models are showing a better chance for widespread showers.

Here are the totals from yesterday

West

Kline: 0.35″

Oak Dr: 0.33″

Castle Rdg Dr: 0.33″

N Rd: 0.36″

S Elk Run: 0.58″

South

S Skylane Dr: 1.91″

Needham: 0.65″

East

W Log Hill Rd: 0.26″

Central

Co Rd 501: 0.85″

Meadowbrook Dr: 0.24″

Lake Simpatico: 0.38″

Crestview Dr: 0.63″

Junction St: 1.60″

Co Rd 251: 0.27″

Aspen Dr: 0.39″

Co Rd 250: 0.65″

Co Rd 250: 0.72″

Rockridge: 1.8″

North

Pinnacle View Dr: 0.43

I was tracking an impressive cell directly over Turtle Lake. I saved the radar shot because, based on the rain rates, I knew it was going to be a big total.

Bullseye!! Turtle Lake Meadows: 4.13″!

I will (do my best) to check back in this afternoon- hopefully I will hit “Publish” this time.

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Sorry- this was from yesterday afternoon; apparently I forgot to hit Publish

8/11/26 Tuesday 2:30 pm

I’ve seen some fascinating model runs today, mostly extended forecasts. I also spent some time on the daily runs (that doesn’t sound good). If anything, more models have come over to the European model’s forecast for these storms to be more widespread, with longer and heavier rains.

I have already seen rain reports for today in my email.

Here is the radar at 3:30 this afternoon.

Encouraging! That cell near Durango is already producing nice totals!

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8/11/26 Tuesday 3:45 am

Good morning. A few locations got some rain yesterday above our 0.20 threshold yesterday. Others exceeded after midnight, so they will be on tomorrow’s list.

At 4: 00 a.m., most locations have dewpoints reading between 45 and 50 degrees. Yesterday’s model runs said we would see a push up in dewpoints above 50 degrees by this afternoon. We’ll see.

PWAT values are currently 115 to 130. PWATs, dewpoints, and sunny conditions late morning into early afternoon are the fuel to get storms developing (convection).

Here is the radar this morning. Some interesting convection is already trying to fire off this morning.

5:00 am

Here is the list of yesterday’s rain totals.

West NR (no stations reporting> 0.20″)

South NR

East

Pagosa Harman Ave: 0.54″

Central 

3 miles North of Elmores corner: 2.00″ (Human report.)

West Bayfield: 0.55″

Jim in Bayfield: 0.29″

Tecalote: 0.55″

Box Canyon Farm: 0.32″

North NR

I saw a monster total near Hermosa, but it must be incorrect, so I skipped over it. 3.58″ can’t be correct. If it is correct and it’s your weather station, email me!

When we are under monsoonal-like flow, the forecast is usually the same every day:

Thunderstorms and showers will start first over the higher terrain between 11:00 am and 2:00 pm; showers will drift off the mountains over the mid-elevations and adjacent valleys after 2 pm. Some showers may continue or refire in the evening.

That is a generic, typical forecast for this time of year; if I see something different in the morning model runs, I will always let you know.

Here is what it looks like-this is 9 am this morning through 6 am Wednesday.

Everything still looks good for this week. It still looks like a short break for Saturday and Sunday with showers and thunderstorms returning next Monday.

That’s all for now. I will check back in the afternoon after reviewing the morning model runs.

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8.10/26 Monday 1:30 pm

So far, showers and thunderstorms are developing mostly outside of our forecast area.

Dewpoints are slightly higher, generally between 40 and 44 degrees. The further south you look, the higher they are.

Sounds like a good lead-in to put the dewpoint maps in motion. This is now through Thursday morning.

I know it’s tough to watch the map and the time simultaneously, but they show a definitive increase by tomorrow afternoon.

Might as well follow up with PWAT anomalies. These are expressed as a percentage above average for this time period. PWAT is simply the amount of moisture available to produce showers and thunderstorms.

I am not a big fan of talking about the pause in the flow before it starts, but some people may like what I am seeing-dryer on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday during the day, with moisture returning Monday night.

That is all I have for now. I will post again tomorrow morning.

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8/10/26 Monday 3:00 am

Ughh, challenging night. Today my goal for this post is to not ramble and head down the rabbit hole like I usually do when I am tired!

The European model verified with dewpoints across the region; they are 10 points higher than 24 hours ago, but still just below that 50-degree threshold I like to see.

For today, there will be a slight uptick in shower coverage for this afternoon. I will be tracking the dewpoints and radar today. I will be posting at least one more time today. Models indicate a large uptick in dew point by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, models are forecasting some 6o+ degree dewpoints in the lower elevations. This will lead to slightly cooler temps.

As I said yesterday, the European model is shifting moisture flow to the east over the Front Range by the weekend. That differs from the GFS, so I will keep an eye on it. So far this season, the European has been more accurate with monsoonal flow.

In a nutshell, nothing has changed since Sunday morning.

More later…

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8/9/26 Sunday 4 am

Yesterday I was surprised to see so much afternoon convection blooming over the higher terrain.

We will most likely see that again today. The only station reporting any precipitation yesterday was Rico. It did not hit the minimum threshold of 0.20″, receiving only 0.13″

Monday’s precipitation chances increase over today.  Tuesday’s precipitation chances increase over Monday, etc., etc., etc., through Friday.

On Saturday, residual moisture from the week will keep afternoon showers in the forecast. However, at the moment, it looks like drier air will begin to filter in Saturday evening as the models appear to be shifting monsoonal flow to the east, likely across the Front Range.

During the 15 years I lived in Denver (prior to moving to Durango in 2008), we referred to the afternoon showers as “It Pours at Four.”

My next update will be on Monday.

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8/07/26 Friday 4:00 am

The biggest surprise since my last post is that I have not gotten any emails from followers in 3 days. This tells me boring weather syndrome is in full effect. I confirmed it by looking at my page stats. After a great July when my traffic was up 85%, the first week of August is showing a 35% decline so far. The lack of emails tells me that despite the heat, followers know it is just temporary.

It is; we could be adding in a slight chance of showers by Sunday afternoon. That seems a little overconfident by the model. I was expecting that to be the case for Monday, with heavier afternoon showers expected to start on Tuesday and increase throughout the week.

This reminds me that 10 days ago, when we were tracking the pattern flip from wet to our current dry pattern, then back to wet.  The models showed moisture flow returning on August 11th. I posted this on July 28th. If we do make that flip to wet, and I think we will, this would be a big win for the European model from 10 days out!

Since we had success using those parameters before, I see no reason to change our methods.

So here we go,  back to the PWATs. As a reminder, PWAT refers to the amount of moisture available to fall as precipitation in any particular area. That is a loose definition, but my brain is running a little slow, so I don’t feel like getting technical.

I need to put on the brakes here before I ramble down the rabbit hole…

Here are the PWAT anomaly values starting tomorrow. The number correlates to the percentage of the average for that particular day.

Just a reminder, our wettest 3-month period of the year is August, September, October. Which means it’s more difficult to get a positive anomaly in already historically wet months.

Next up, regional dewpoint progression. We are looking for that old-school 50-degree mark. It does vary throughout the day because flow increases in the afternoon. That top right of the frame shows time and date. We are looking for the values at 00z (6 pm Mountain).

Just a reminder, the higher the elevation, the lower the dewpoint, so storms can fire up with much lower values.

I am going to skip posting on Saturday (unless something crazy shows up). I will post again on Sunday.

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