Thursday Early Evening

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 5:30 pm

River Forecast Center just time-stamped their earlier update. That means they released the same data as the previous post and labeled it the most recent. This makes me think we may not get an update until morning.  This also makes me think old precip data is still being fed in.

If you’re new, I tend to overprotect SW Colorado to the extent that it sounds like I am digging at NWS. That’s not the case, but if I strongly disagree, I will let everyone know, as I have.

The flood warning text made me believe they are going to focus on us rather than their less-affected coverage areas. We’ll see.

Here is an example of poor initialization. Show of hands: does anyone remember when I said the models for the last couple of months have underforecasted precipitation amounts?

Here’s last night’s through 6 pm tonight precip forecast:

Here is live reporting straight from the DWG Command Center:

7:06 pm

Here is the same model for precipitation from 6 pm tonight through Sunday night:

Surface maps once again differ by  100s of miles. I am checking out for a few hours.

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Thursday Late Afternoon Flood Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3:30 pm

I should not do this but I am questioning the peak times, they have not changed, that tells me they might be chasing data, I will leave it at that.

Animas Durango: Above Action Stage, at Flood Stage 8ft (within 3/4 of an inch) with 9825 cfs, which well exceeds 2019 and would be ranked 7th in history

Animas at Durango Below Pump Plant: Forecast is higher than ever recorded since records were kept (18 years). If you missed my other updates big concerns for the lowest lying residents in River Oaks and folks living off of east of La Posta road. Weaselskin, Jack Rabbit etc.

San Juan at Pagosa Springs: YIKES

Vallecito Creek: We are creeping up on last year.

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: This exceeds both days in October last year on the provisional site.

 

Animas at Cedar Hill: Exceeding flood stage

La Plata River at State Line: 

La Plata River at Hesperus:

I would not be surprised at all if these NOAA River Forecast folks have a very long night. I will do my best to keep up. Have not covered an historic event in a while!

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Update Coming Soon Big Changes In Flood Forecasts

On By durangoweatherguy

3:00 pm

I wanted to get this out so you can check the site or your email later. I am not sure how long this update will take to write, but it’s a big deal: the Animas (downtown) will exceed Action Stage and be less than an inch from flood stage by noon tomorrow.

 

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Thursday Model Update: Flood Warning-Current Concerns

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 12:20 pm

OK, no break. As soon as I hit publish, this came out:

 

Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
1218 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by thunderstorms and excessive rainfall is
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until midnight MDT Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams
  continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1212 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
    the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen over
    the last 24 hours.
  - This includes but is not limited to the following streams...
    Vallecito Creek, La Plata River, Animas River and many creeks and
    tributaries that feed into these rivers.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, La Plata, Falfa, Hesperus, Bondad, Breen, Mayday, Kline,
    Marvel, Redmesa and Vallecito.

I am glad they did this, BUT the existing Flood Watch expires tomorrow at noon. Do you want to know what’s not going to expire? The rain!

The Flood Watch reads like flood danger will be over by noon tomorrow. You can’t just flip a switch and end it.  It looks like we may see a short lull tomorrow afternoon before the second part rolls in very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals between noon today and Monday morning.

The point is, the danger doesn’t go away when this flood watch does! I hope (nudge nudge) they issue an overlapping Flood Watch for the weekend, because ending this one without following up on the weekend sends the wrong message.

I am going to try to post another flood update after CBRFG updates their forecasts later today. At least the crucial ones.

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Thursday Flood Potential Update: Clarifications and Peak Forecasts

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday  9 am-12 pm

Junction Creek (and all other tributaries to the Animas River)

A couple of things that came up in an email. I have had questions regarding Junction Creek. What I am going to say is not exclusive to Junction Creek. Any creek or ditch draining into the Animas River is going to have the same situation.

With the Animas forecast peak, all tributaries will backwater, slowing drainage and potentially causing flooding in low-lying areas. This event will not even be a top 25 event for this location DRGC2(bridge near Powerhouse Science Center). You have likely seen pictures of the historic flooding when 25,000 cfs was recorded in October 1911.

When I, debatably, misspoke about the historic levels, I was referring to DGOC2 (the Animas below the Pump Plant) location. Technically, not a historic flow. But it did not exist many years ago. There are only 18 years of data at this newer location. So, technically, this will be a historic flow relative to the 18 years of data. I should have been clearer, but I want to make sure residents living south of town along the Animas know what to expect.

Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos Discrepancy

Last year, on October 11th, both locations ran much higher than the current forecast peak for this event. After some digging, I found out that, because these events fell outside of the water year, they are still “under review”, which means they will go into the CBRFC data next spring. I will be more careful talking about historic flows, now that I have that background knowledge. I will just include forecast, action stage, and flood stage

Update 10:40 am

The new data is out, and as I expected, everything is going higher…

I included the hydrograph on this one because this is the most dire situation in SW Colorado

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: I don’t know how or if this will affect travel. Forecast Peak is Friday at 6 am.

 

Animas-Durango DRGC2 (bridge near Science Center): Now is forecast to surpass Action Stage on Friday at Noon. This will affect all residents along tributaries to the Animas, as well as low-lying ground around Trimble and along 550 to Animas City. Forecast peak is Friday at noon.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 7.07 ft, 7464 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation: 5.10 ft, 3286 cfs (10/22/15Z)

Animas-Durango DGOC2- Below Pump Plant: No data for Action Stage or Flood Stage: Residents South of this location, particularly along La Posta Rd, should treat this as if action stage will be surpassed by Friday at 1 pm.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 8.51 ft, 7782 cfs (10/23/19Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 6.47 ft, 3602 cfs (10/22/16Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above Action Stage, 3 inches below Flood Stage. Forecast peak  12:00 am Friday 

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 5.22 ft, 553 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation: 4.75 ft, 327 cfs (10/22/16Z)

Vallecito Creek: Forecast Peak 12:00 am Friday

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 4.80 ft, 3888 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 3.39 ft, 1492 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: I double-checked with the provisional site. Last year the reading was 7.18 feet with 3400 CFS, FYI. Forecast Peak Friday 6 am.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 7.70 ft, 4195 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 5.72 ft, 1259 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Piedra at Arboles: I confirmed on the provisional site; this is forecast to be the 2nd highest level in 110 years.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 8.18 ft, 9446 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 4.37 ft, 2572 cfs (10/22/17Z)
Historical Peak: 8370 cfs, 1970-09-06

Animas at Cedar Hill: Above Action Stage; this would take over the fifth-highest spot in history (I double-checked). Forecast peak Friday at 5 pm

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 9.75 ft, 8190 cfs (10/23/23Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation: 7.59 ft, 3505 cfs (10/22/17Z)

 La Plata River at CO/NM state line:

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 8.00 ft, 884 cfs (10/23/17Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation: 4.17 ft, 53 cfs (10/22/17Z)

 

I am going to take a short break, then I will do the weather model update.

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Thursday Morning Updates- Additions To Flood Locations Please Read!

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3 am

For the first time in a while, there are MANY changes to discuss, but they all concern flood potential.  I discovered a “vulnerability” (for lack of a better term) on the River Forecast Center site that is very unfriendly to casual users. I will cover that in just a moment. First I want to cover the precipitation models

Going forward for this event, rather than showing all the models, I’m going to show only the European model for a few reasons.

  1. The European was the first model to pick up on this precipitation event days before any other model.
  2. The European was also the first model to pick up on the secondary system that will affect us this weekend.
  3. The European model has more versatile parameters that let me show rainfall left to fall for any given time period.
  4.  Tracking the flooding potential will take extra time now that I’ve discovered issues with the River Forecast site.

Here is the latest European showing rain left to fall from 6 am this morning to the last drop Sunday night/Monday morning.

 

 River Forecast Site Issues

Some locations don’t have Flood Stage and Action Stage data. They aren’t flagged as at risk because the data is missing. Some are shown as “normal”; others are listed as “significant rise”- which, ironically, shows a green dot on the location. I say that because they use a yellow dot for “action stage” and a red dot for “flood stage”. So, normal thought progression when you look at that is: red dot=warning; yellow dot=caution; green dot must be safe?

Not so much! When you look at historical data for some of those locations, the current forecast peak is, in some cases, higher than the historical high, yet it is flagged by a green dot!

This definitely answers all the “what about Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos/ etc.” questions we had. As I said, I was as surprised as everyone; now I know why.

New data will be out in 3 hours, I think. They did a model update last night, early evening, a lot of rain has fallen since then… So I will limit this to the new locations. And do a more detailed update mid-morning. The last two days, they have done an update around 8-9 am.

Los Pinos is forecast to hit a historic peak: 6.93 feet with 2806 CFS peaking at 6 am Friday morning.  This exceeds the 2019 runoff.

Vallecito Creek is forecast to peak in the top 3 historic flows: 4.22 feet with 2,745 cfs, peaking Friday morning at 6 am.

Durango Pump Station south of town is forecast to reach a historical peak: 8.35 feet with 7401 cfs.  ****** The biggest effects will be south of River Oaks, especially heading south on La Posta Rd. Jack Rabbit area and Weaselskin come to mind. Residents in that area should understand the significance of exceeding the prior high set in 2019!*****

Cherry Creek at Red Mesa: No historical data is available. Current observation shows 1.06 feet with 0 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.94 feet with 113 cfs Friday at 6 am.

La Plata River below  Cherry Creek near Red Mesa: No historical data available. Current observation: 2.94 feet with 124 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.83 feet with 645 cfs Friday at noon.

Piedra near Arboles: Forecast to hit the 4th highest level in history. Forecast peak 6.21 with 5311 cfs Friday at 6 pm.

I hope to get the latest data and have the Flooding Update out by noon!

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Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 12:30 pm

The models initialized pretty well on rain start times across the forecast area.  That is encouraging or scary depending on your perspective.

While I am thinking about it, keep this in the back of your mind. If you have watched any weather media lately, you have probably heard about Super Typhoon Champi (pronounced Chompy). Champi is big enough that it could recurve all the way from Asia to Alaska’s Bering Sea, wreaking complete havoc on the fishing fleet (probably ending up in next year’s Deadliest Catch episodes).

From there it could slide down the Canadian Coast, then the Pacific Northwest Coast, slide all the way down to the Central/Southern California Coast, and end up as a big storm in our backyards. I don’t have models that track that far yet; this is pure intuition.  I might be wrong; I’ll have a better idea in 7-10 days when the models can pick it up.

I got dangerously close to heading down the rabbit hole there…

The WPC NOAA Weather Prediction Center) finally updated their ERO (Excessive Rain Outlook) today; nothing like waiting until the last minute.

Here are the latest crazy model runs. I will not be surprised when the reports are logged if we see totals higher than forecast guidance.

These forecast totals run from 6 am this morning through Sunday night.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

NBM

German

GFS AI

European

Canadian

I’ll be back in the morning.

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Wednesday Flood Potential

On By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 9 am

Before I get started, I have received many emails asking about the area in and around Vallecito and Lemon Reservoirs. First, I was as surprised as everyone else. Perhaps it will be more like when than if. We will see.

Los Pinos, Florida, and Vallecito Creek all have gauges and are tracked by the River Forecast Center. I can monitor flows. So if they somehow dont catch the rising flows, I can let everyone know what I am seeing on the near-live observations.

I won’t share the little graph portion anymore, just the data. Two changes: La Plata River at Hesperus and the Animas at Cedar Hill, near the New Mexico border, are now forecast to be above action stage at peak flow. Action stage means you should monitor the situation closely, and you may experience minor flooding in low-lying areas.

All of these peak times are subject to change by NOAA’s River Forecast Center.

On these data boxes next to “Forecast Peak in the parentheses have the projected time and date of the peak. In the example below for Animas Durango, it is (10/24/00z). That is 6 pm Friday.

 Animas Durango near Science Center:

Notice the forecast peak has increased and sits (for now) a couple of inches or less below action stage. If you are close to creeks that flow into the Animas, I suggest you come up with a game plan.  Or contact the County EMS. This also applies to the Trimble area and areas along 550 between Trimble and Animas City.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak: 6.97 ft, 7213 cfs (10/24/00Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation: 3.54 ft, 1142 cfs (10/21/14Z)

 

La Plata River at Hesperus: The forecast peak has increased above the action stage.  Peak is forecast for Friday at 6 am

Forecast Date: 2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak: 5.07 ft, 487 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation: 3.94 ft, 71 cfs (10/21/14Z)

 

Mancos River in Mancos is no longer on the list. I don’t understand enough about it to explain why. I am just telling you what their models are predicting.

 

La Plata River at CO/NM state line: Is still right below action stage. The peak is forecast for Friday at noon

Forecast Date: 2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak: 7.73 ft, 802 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation: 3.62 ft, 10 cfs (10/21/15Z)

 

Animas River at Cedar Hill near CO/NM border: Forecast peak has increased. It is now above the action stage. Forecast peak is Friday at 10 pm.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak: 9.59 ft, 7760 cfs (10/24/04Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation: 5.75 ft, 1281 cfs (10/21/15Z)

 

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: The forecast peak remains above flood stage. The peak forecast is Friday at 6 am. If this verifies, it will be the 10th highest peak on record for this location. 1 through 8 were decades ago. 9th highest occurred 5/23/2005.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak: 10.73 ft, 4705 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 10.5 ft, 4477 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 3487 cfs
Current Observation: 5.51 ft, 470 cfs (10/21/15Z)

 

My next weather model update will be out around 2-3 pm.

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Wednesday Morning

On By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 3:30 am

 Overview

Showers should start moving into the western forecast area this morning, then late morning to around noon across the northern and central portions, and early afternoon in the eastern portions. At least that is what the latest models are forecasting (so it could change a bit)

I have very few changes overall. One thing I am watching is dropping snow levels for Saturday and Sunday. This could change, but for now it looks like they could drop below pass level.

I have given it thought, and I have decided not to treat the weekend totals as a separate event. Models don’t always do a great job defining start and stop times, especially with successive systems.

That is why, even though they are different systems (one ending Friday afternoon and another starting Friday evening), we’ll use model guidance for totals between now and Monday morning. As I said, I am more concerned with the overall totals than trying to determine starts, stops, and lulls.

We have a lot of new people and some longtime followers who need a refresher, so I made cheat sheets for the forecast maps.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

Going forward, I will include these “cheaters” every time I post forecast maps. All of these maps show total liquid equivalent precipitation from Wednesday through Sunday evening

German Model: Further clarification on map locations correlated with forecast amounts shown. 1.65=Telluride, 2.46=Cortez,  5.44=NE of Bayfield near Upper Pine Fire Station number 8, 5.74=Pagosa Springs

NBM (model)

European Model

Canadian Model-Crazy!

GFS AI

I’ll update flood potential mid-morning when the new data is out. I am curious to see if there are any new additions to what we saw yesterday.

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Tuesday Afternoon Update: Too Big To Ignore!

On By durangoweatherguy

10/20/26 Tuesday Noon

Morning models are slightly slowing the onset of heavy precipitation (again), as expected.

Overview

Nothing meaningful has changed; showers and storms will start moving into the area tomorrow. Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated, more on this in a moment.

Here are the latest precipitation forecast models through Friday night.

NBM

German

Canadian

European

GFS AI-  I fired the old original GFS. It is not dependable; it flip-flops all of the time and forecasts scenarios that could never happen with our terrain. I have been tracking the GFS AI for a while, and it is impressive. That’s the first time I have ever used the words GFS and Impressive together.

Time to revisit what I said earlier: “Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated”

That is an understatement. It’s also why I named this post “Too Big To Ignore!”

I have mentioned a couple of times that the Euro doesn’t stop raining on Friday; it continues through Sunday night/Monday morning. All of the other models are now on board with this solution. If this happens, I will have to update all of the flood areas; this could become a big problem. The maps I posted above are for precipitation through Friday night.

If I extend these models through Sunday night. Look at what it does to those totals:

German Model through Sunday night

Canadian Model through Sunday night

European Model through Sunday Night

GFS AI through Sunday night- that is a scary 10 inches of liquid at Wolf Creek Pass. Canadian showed 8.5 inches

To complicate things further, there is a slight chance we could see lower snow levels this weekend.

If you did not read my last update on current areas forecasted to have potential flooding issues, you can read it here: Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

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