8/2/26 Sunday 4:00 am

Well, the good sleep thing didn’t work out, but it rarely does. But hey, I got several drops of rain yesterday and some nice thunder. Actually, it was 0.03. Which is why it’s good not to rule anything out this time of year.

Yesterday, we got stuck down in the rabbit hole of why models make mistakes. Friday we talked about PWAT values, and tracking the return to moisture using that model parameter.

Today we are going back to the extended European to take a look at precipitation and precipitation anomalies through mid-September. This was another parameter I used to forecast our early July pattern change.

Starting with the weekly anomalies. This shows expected precipitation anomaly amounts above average or below average for these days.

Week one ending Friday 8/7

I am not going to analyze every slide, but this is the amount of precipitation below average that is forecasted.

Week two ending Friday, August 14th.

That gives us some framework to figure out the return to moisture. Based on this slide, the model indicates it will occur between Friday, August 7th, and Friday, August 14th.

This is interesting, because when I originally talked about this pause, models were showing August 12th for the monsoonal flow to return. Then the models got overenthusiastic for several days, and moved up the line to August 6th. Only to push it back to the timeline we are seeing now.

Enough commentary, no more rabbit holes…

Week three ending Friday, 8/21.

Week four ending Friday, 8/28.

Week five ending Friday, 9/14.

Week 6 ending Friday, 9/11.

Even small anomalies add up over time. Here is the 46 day total anomaly.

So how much rainfall is that? Here is the 46 day forecasted total, ending September 15th.

Finally, it’s a little too early to start looking at this. However, over the next 7-14 days we should see this map start filling in. Here is the 46 day snow forecast.

In the next few days, the new monthly and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and average pressure levels. That info will take us through February. My next post will be on Monday.

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8/1/26 Saturday 4:30 am

I was not crazy about the overnight model runs. I am feeling like I might have set myself up for the forecaster’s curse after I wrote this yesterday:

“The model’s target is Thursday, with Wednesday being the pivot day between dry and wet. It definitely could change, but several days of model runs indicate this exact timing.”

Several days of model runs is very good run-to-run model consistency. That being said, the model went off script the last two model runs. Delaying the return of moisture to our area.

I also remember back in June, when we were so desperate to see the rain at the end of the tunnel. I wrote the same mantra that I have been saying for years. “Dry likes to stay dry, wet likes to stay wet.”

This is true in reality. But it is always more pronounced with the weather models. It is a well-documented feedback loop and one of the biases of the operational models. There is one problem. You don’t dry out soil moisture in two days.

This bias may be taking over already after two days. In other words, the model is still trying to resolve the effect of going from high-humidity days and abundant moisture to dry conditions so abruptly.

Let’s go back to the issue of how the bias works.  When we talk about a feedback loop, we are referring to a model deficiency that extends the current (at that time) conditions.

This is difficult to explain, but let’s say you could hear the model processing data. It would say. “I see all of this dry weather across the western US, so I can’t possibly be seeing results that show a pattern change to wet; I need to ignore that for now and extend the hot, dry weather.” Then in the next run, the model would see that extended period of hot, dry weather (that the model created in the prior run), and come to the same conclusion. Each time extending the dry weather. The feedback (loop)  of the hot and dry from the model locks in the next solution (forecast), which perpetuates the hot and dry forecast. The model (for now) does not say, “hey, I didn’t acknowledge the change back to wet in the last run, maybe I should consider that pattern change.” No, every six hours the model starts fresh, then it sees the hot, dry weather and forecasts more hot, dry weather.

I feel like I have done a horrible job explaining it, but that is the best explanation I can come up with this morning.

It occurs to me that this is a lot to soak up without falling asleep reading it. If I go on to my next topic, I will lose the reader’s attention. So I am going to stick with that and not go further down the rabbit hole. My goal was to demonstrate that we might not be getting accurate model information at the moment.

I will post again on Sunday, hopefully after a full night’s sleep!

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7/31/26 Friday 5:30 am

No totals to report. So far, everything is going according to plan.  Not that I am excited about hot, dry weather, but knowing it is only temporary helps me get through it.

When I originally started tracking the pattern change into the monsoonal flow. I did so by monitoring the PWAT forecast. Precipitable Water values are the amount of precipitation available to fall to the ground if it fell in a single column to the ground.

The best parameter to use to track these values is “PWAT Anomaly Percentage of Normal”. By “normal,” it is referring to the average for that day at that location. If it shows 70, that is 75% of average. 150 is 150% of average.

I am going to put the maps in motion, and I am going to start the run on Monday, August 3rd, ending Monday, August 10th.

Brown colors are below average (moisture). White is average; blues and green are above average.

The model’s target is Thursday, with Wednesday being the pivot day between dry and wet. It definitely could change, but several days of model runs indicate this exact timing.

I will be posting daily between now and then, and try to highlight a different parameter each day.

My next update will be Saturday.

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7/30/26 Thursday 4:30 am

We have had a pretty action-packed run; I am so used to having a lot to cover. However, as you may have seen, dew points are dropping, now in the mid- to high-40s in the forecast area. This is just the start; precipitable water values are going to drop below seasonal norms for the first time in weeks. This is only temporary. Moisture will return to our area as early as Wednesday or Friday of next week!

Yesterday, the only action was up north. Ouray had readings of 0.71 to 0.95 inches; finally, some heavier rain for them!

The time off will give us a few days to catch up on the long-range forecasts; I have not shared them in a while. They now take us all of the way out, nearly to mid-September! I am going to continue daily posts; there is still enough to talk about.

The drier period will not eliminate the chances of high-elevation afternoon thunderstorms. So keep that in mind before you venture out.

Next update on Friday

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07/29/26 Wednesday 6 am

I am a little late today; I fell asleep around 10 pm last night, and the power went out around 11 pm.  Power outages are like torture for a noise-dependent fan sleeper like me.  They had it fixed by 1 am or so.

Models have really backed off a wet solution for today. But dewpoints are in the high 50s. Plenty of residual moisture to fire late afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as we saw late Tuesday. Especially across the far northern portions of the forecast area.

Models agree that we are moving into a period which is not conducive to heavy showers and thunderstorms. However, as I have said, models are sometimes too fast with macro changes. So I will be monitoring this on a day by day basis. According to the models, this will last until Thursday or Friday of next week. We’ll see.

What an interesting evening. The Durango doughnut was in full effect.

Yesterday’s total above 0.20-inch threshold.

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7/28/26 Tuesday 6:00 am

I can’t help but chuckle that the big story in the Herald this morning is that the monsoons have arrived. Right before the monsoon is ready to shut down for a while.

I could not find any significant rain totals where I normally look. I did get a report that Glacier got a quick 0.20. Other reports were from areas outside of the forecast area.

For today, models show scattered pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon. Compared to yesterday, I would say the chances of storm development are slightly higher.

Tomorrow will be the best chance for our forecast area to get some rain before the monsoon gets disrupted until the middle of, or late next week.

Here is what that looks like. This is Wednesday late afternoon. You can see the moisture feed is present, but not particularly strong. Notice the breaks in the flow coming from Mexico? I would call this partial flow. Most of the thunderstorms are using residual moisture to develop, with a little help from the flow.

Partial Flow

This is Friday afternoon. I would call this disrupted flow. It speaks for itself, this is disrupted flow. We are shut down completely. Storm development would be entirely dependent on residual moisture. Models show in this condition until as early as Wednesday or as late as Friday. This dry period is going to cause a feedback loop with the models (dry likes to stay dry), which will likely render the models worthless in timing the return of full flow.

Disrupted Flow

It still appears that by mid-August, we will be in the best position of the season for heavier widespread rain. Here is what that looks like. This is August 11th.

Full Flow

That is a beautiful thing!

When the morning models come out I will post again,  I am curious as whether or not  tomorrow’s rain chances get shut down, or if the models are still optimistic for a last shot of precipitation for a while.

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7/27/26 Monday 12:30 pm

The new European looks more like yesterday’s model run. If this model run is correct, this will reduce our afternoon storm chances. The peak of the moisture flow blockage, as the model sees it, begins on Friday 7/31 and lasts through the middle of the following week.

I am not sure that I completely believe it, not because I want the rain, but because I never trust the models when they flip back and forth. So far today, very few storms have started firing this afternoon. But dewpoints have not dropped; if you have a weather station, that is something you can track. Check it in the morning after sunrise, then again in the afternoon around 3 pm. What you’re watching for is a drop on both readings below 47, which would indicate our residual moisture is drying up and our moisture is at least partially blocked. I don’t need dewpoint reports because I will be checking all of the stations as well.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings. I’ll be back in the morning.

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7/26/26 Sunday 12:30 pm

Before I start, I read something very interesting that NOAA is now addressing regarding El Niño forecasting. Could this be the first step at mitigating the expectations for the “Super” El Niño everyone was so hyped up about?

Read it if you enjoy weather geekdom; it’s short.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/news-and-media/highlights/climate-models-get-key-feature-el-nino-wrong-undermining-forecast-accuracy

On to the good stuff…

It appears that our moisture transport will weaken as high pressure moves slightly. This will be gradual and not permanent. Although it will weaken, it won’t shut down. Precipitable Water Value (PWAT) will still range from seasonally average to slightly above.  This could start as soon as Thursday or Friday and last 4to 7 days, before the flow shifts and anomalously high PWATs return over the area.

Here are a couple of visual aids. The first shows the  PWAT decreasing and then returning. These go fast; don’t try to follow the dates, just the changes.  is better to demonstrate the changes. White is seasonally average, greens and blues are above average, tan and brown are below seasonal norms. The number values represent the percentage of average.

The way I was able to time the start of the pattern change a few weeks ago was by using the long-range European Extended models, referred to as “the weeklies” by people in the business.

What you see below is the long-term precipitation forecast through September 9th. The numbers represent the amount of precipitation above average seasonal amounts. That 2.74 you see in our area is not the forecast total. The number is how many inches above average is forecasted to fall. I know I said the same thing twice in two different ways, but I wanted to make sure everyone understood.

Tomorrow, my plan is to get up early, so I can work without interruptions and get Monday’s update out early.

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