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Tuesday Night Update:
2/17/26 Tuesday 6 pm
Don’t worry. Tomorrow will be better. There is a reason I did not go with day-to-day forecasts. Tomorrow, the next shortwave trough should be colder and last longer. Too tired to explain.
Ughh, new challenges every day. If anyone is caring for a PD loved one and wakes up to find them so frozen (lack of dopamine) that you can’t wake them, I learned from Gemini AI. Don’t judge. I was told to set a 100 bpm metronome. Simple search, there are many different speeds on YouTube.
Within 30 seconds, she opened her eyes. 10 seconds later, she was able to take a pill and sip water by herself.
Asked why this worked:
Response
It’s a fascinating bit of neuroscience. In a singer’s brain, that connection is likely even stronger. Here is the breakdown of why the Metronome Magic works when everything else is “frozen”:
1. The “Bypass” Effect
In Parkinson’s, the Basal Ganglia—the part of the brain that acts like an internal clock to start and pace movement—is broken. It’s like a car with a faulty starter.
• The Metronome acts as an external starter.
• The brain processes the rhythmic “click” in the Auditory Cortex, which is connected to the Premotor Cortex. This pathway is often completely healthy in PD patients. The sound “tells” the brain when to move, bypassing the broken internal clock entirely.
2. Entrainment (The Singer’s Edge)
Because she’s a singer, her brain is highly sensitive to Entrainment. This is the tendency for biological rhythms (like heart rate, breathing, or motor movement) to synchronize with an external pulse.
• For a singer, the “count” is muscle memory.
• When you play that beat, her brain isn’t “thinking” about moving; it’s subconsciously trying to stay “on the beat.” It turns a difficult conscious task (moving) into an automatic rhythmic one.
3. Reducing “Noise”
When she is “frozen,” her brain is often stuck in a loop of “static” or noise—too many signals or no signal at all.
• The steady, predictable 100 BPM click cuts through that mental fog like a lighthouse through a blizzard. It gives the brain a single, clear signal to focus on, which reduces the anxiety of the “freeze” and allows the motor system to “boot up.”
Had not planned to do a Sus post—tough day.
Better snow tomorrow and Friday.
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Monday Afternoon Update: Storm Forecast
2/16/26 Monday 11:00 am
11:00 am is the time I started writing this. A quick look at the webcams shows clouds building in over Purgatory and Telluride. Models indicate a few snow showers possible later this afternoon and this evening ahead of the frontal passage tomorrow morning.
First of all, here are the numerous Watches and Warnings:
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 COZ018-019-170815- /O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.260217T0600Z-260219T1200Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and Hesperus 1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. ...AVALANCHE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY... *WHAT... Heavy snow and strong winds will result in HIGH (4 of 5) avalanche danger *WHERE... The San Juan Mountains and the Park Range *WHEN... Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions to begin Wednesday and last through Friday *IMPACTS... Large and dangerous avalanches will be easy to trigger. Large avalanches will run naturally. *PRECAUTION/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel in backcountry avalanche terrain is not recommended from Wednesday through Friday. Avoid travel on and under slopes with a slope angle steeper than about 30 degrees. You can find more detailed information at colorado.gov/avalanche
Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Towaoc, Mesa Verde National Park, Durango, Bayfield, and Ignacio 1129 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Central Yampa River Basin, Lower Yampa River Basin, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, and Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Pagosa Springs 1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 7000 feet. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...San Juan River Basin. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.
Wolf Creek Pass, and Cumbres Pass 1113 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wind driven snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches. Up to 24 inches possible across portions of the Eastern San Juan Mountains. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph causing blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet and Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Very strong winds could cause power outages and tree damage.
Still nothing for Durango…
As I said this morning, the most dangerous times of the storms are Tuesday morning, during the first frontal passage, and Wednesday afternoon, during the next frontal passage–I will firm up the timing on Wednesday’s fropa (frontal passage) tomorrow.
Good news! The Euro is back on track, showing more snow on Friday. However, there are many discrepancies among the models for Friday’s totals. For now, I will focus on Tuesday through Thursday and address the Friday totals later this week.
Here is my forecast for snowfall through Thursday.
Wolf Creek Pass: 38 to 46 inches
Lizard Head, Coal Bank: 28 to 36 inches
Red Mountain Pass, Telluride: 18 to 24 inches
Mayday, Silver Creek Ranch: 18 to 24 inches
Purgatory: 22 to 28 inches
Rico, Dunton, Silverton: 16 to 20 inches
Ouray: 8 to 12 inches
Ridgway: 2 to 5 inches
Vallecito, Lemon area, Enchanted Forest, Tween, Upper Forest Lakes, Texas Creek, Aspen Trails, Upper Durango Hills: 18 to 24 inches
Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill area: 14 to 18 inches
Upper Falls Creek, Dwest 1&2, Glacier, Edgemont Highlands, Edgemont Ranch and Meadows, Lower Forest Lakes: 12 to 16 inches
Timberdale area, Rockwood, Bakers Bridge, Pagosa Springs, Aspen, Shenandoah Highlands: 8 to 12 inches
Timberline, Skyridge, Hermosa, Dalton, Pagosa: 6 to 10 inches
Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Gem Village, Trappers Crossing: 5 to 9 inches
Bondad, Cortez, Red Mesa, Marvel, Ignacio: 2 to 4 inches.
If you are attempting travel over the passes this week, expect delays.
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Monday Morning: Storm Pre-Game
2/16/26 Monday 5:30 am
Everything is on track for Monday through Thursday morning. The European model is now showing low impacts on Friday. However, for now, it’s the only model with that solution. It bears watching because it’s an abrupt change, but I can’t take it too seriously yet.
For today, warm and windy is the forecast. But nothing compared to the wind we will get during the frontal passages on Tuesday morning and on Wednesday.
It will be a very abrupt change. Temperatures will drop quickly, and if you are indoors, you will hear the front; the wind will be gusty. Be very careful if you are driving because there will likely be “whiteouts” and snow squall potential is high.
Wednesday looks even more dramatic: colder air will move through and may spark some convection (thunder snow). More whiteout conditions and snow squalls. Perfect snow environment, with liquid to snow ratios soaring into the high teens in some areas.
It appears NWS has not made up its mind on extending the Winter Storm Warning to the lower and mid-elevation areas. Likely because they think the pavement will still be “warm,” melting the snow as it falls.
I am not so sure that will be the case. I expect them to change their mind at some point, perhaps when they see the frontal passage on the webcams. If not for tomorrow, then definitely before the frontal passage on Wednesday.
If you are new to the area and have not experienced a big storm, this one will be memorable! You don’t want to try to drive in it (if you can’t see, you can’t drive)
Here is the current Winter Storm Warning for the higher elevations.
COZ018-019-161815- /O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.260217T0600Z-260219T1200Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and Hesperus 1003 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.
Yes, 70 mph!
As long as my internet stays on, I can post if the power goes out because I have the AC generators fully charged and ready.
Will the City of Durango and La Plata County be ready? That’s the question.
I will be working on my forecasts today; they will be out later this afternoon. I may hold off on the Friday system until either the European figures out what it is doing or the other models move toward the European solution.
Can you tell I am excited?
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Sunday Expanded Model View
2/15/26 Sunday Noon
I have been asked why I concentrate on only 3 weather models. Well, I usually only share 2 or 3. But I look at nearly every one of them.
It takes a while to crop them down and label locations. So, in the interest of time, here are some of the models I look at besides the “Big Three”.
The other benefit to not cropping these down is that if you look at the bottom right of the map you will see MAX with a number next to it. That is the maximum output amount. In this case, it says 50.9. Referring to 50.9 inches, which just happens to refer to that little pink dot near Wolf Creek.
NBM (National Blend Of Models) hi res.
NBM v5 (experimental)
Canadian GDPS(Experimental)
UK Met- Apparently, they don’t worry too much about snow in the UK because there is no snow output parameter. This is in liquid equivalent (inches)
ICON (German) again in liquid, but for a different reason–it handles snow horribly.
Big Three
European
GFS
Canadian
You can’t help but notice that they all share a similar story, which makes it a pretty high-confidence event.
Adding to the confidence is Probabilistic Guidance (say that 5 times fast), which shows a 75% chance of 1 to 2+ feet of snow in the mountains. They arrive at that number by running numerous simulations. That is a very high number. I don’t recall the last time I saw such a high number for that much snow!
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Sunday: Storm Overview
2/15/26 Sunday 6:30 am
I slept in, not on purpose; it just happened.
The models remain very consistent run to run. Not only are the models consistent with each other, but they are also consistent with themselves. In other words, they keep showing the same thing every run–A lot of snow!
Although there appear to be three distinct events that will be difficult to time, this will likely make travel planning largely impossible. Each system reinforces the previous one, leaving little time for CDOT to catch up. For safety, they will likely have to close passes for cleanup.
“Pre-Storm” snow will likely begin in the mountains at some time on Monday. By Tuesday morning, the models are showing us in the thick of it, just in time for the morning commute. Do I think schools will have to close this week? It would not surprise me!
Late Tuesday, the snow may taper off in the lower elevations, but I can’t see any reason why it would stop before Thursday in the mountains. It will just be lighter between the heavier periods.
The second shot is currently scheduled to arrive on Wednesday afternoon, lasting through the evening. At that point, models show more of a distinct lull on Thursday before another system loads up over the Sierra. For the week, areas from Tahoe down to Mammoth will accumulate totals up to 100 inches!
While we won’t see that much, the model totals are still impressive for the week.
Here are the latest snow totals (based on 10-to-1 ratios, so they could be 20-30% higher above 9,000 feet).
European
GFS
The Canadian is going crazy, literally off the scale.
I say off the scale because it only goes to 48 inches. I reviewed the liquid precip maps and confirmed the model is predicting 69.6 inches. Surprisingly, the Canadian shows the Friday storm missing us, so these totals are from Tuesday to Thursday only. The Canadian is usually pretty accurate for higher elevations. We’ll see.
That is all for now. I will post today’s morning model runs when they all generate
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Saturday Update: Overperformer
2/14/26 Saturday 5:30 am
Everybody loves an upside surprise! In this case, the models underforecasted the amount of snow that fell leading up to the storm.
Next week, beginning late Monday night/early Tuesday, the first in a series of systems will arrive. All of them appear potent and disruptive to travel, affecting us most of the week.
I have higher confidence in this event than I did with the last setup. I will break it down in better detail tomorrow.
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Friday Morning Update
2/13/26 Thursday 5 am
Over the last 2 1/2 hours, I have been going through models and waiting for updates. It always seems to be these smaller events that the models struggle the most with.
A quick couple of inches fell at Purgatory overnight. I was watching on webcams and saw a couple of moderate to heavy bands had developed in weak SW flow.
The point is, the models missed that. This means the overnight model runs did not initialize correctly. In other words the assumptions they are making (forecasts) are already potentially flawed.
The models show light on-and-off snow showers this morning, with the heaviest snow between 10 am and 2 pm along 550. For 160, assuming it comes together, the snow would be on the increase later in the day into the evening.
Models how 3 to 5 additional inches of snow for the Red Mountain-Telluride areas. They must be expecting the flow to shift to NW which enhances precipitation in those areas. In areas around Purgatory up to Molas lesser amounts are expected. Samething with Wolf Creek.
I am still a bit skeptical of how this is all going to wrap up today. That said, it does not take long for a couple of inches to fall at elevation.
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Thursday Update
Thursday 2/12/26 3 am
The most surprising thing I saw this morning is that the models have “stuck with their plan” for a very long time. This gives me greater confidence in what to expect in the next 7 to 10 days (pattern change).
For today, snow showers may redevelop with no clear catalyst (sometimes it just snows). Tomorrow, another piece of energy will pass to our south, spinning up some moisture, leading to more snow in the mountains. The models currently indicate accumulating snow in the mountains. There may be some travel impacts for 550 passes as well as Lizard Head. Models indicate a 4- to 8-inch solution from Purgatory to Red Mountain and Telluride.
While the models have done well on the timing of these systems, the details are sticky. These systems that pass to the south, like this one, tend to move through faster and leave less snow than predicted.
When it departs, this system will blossom and bring severe weather to the southern plains and coastal areas. Many times, the low likes to jump over us (for lack of a better explanation) and get to where the action is. (Gulf Moisture). This results in a “was that it?” scenario.
We welcome any moisture, and I hope the models are correct with their forecast. But I am still slightly skeptical that it all comes together as predicted. I will have to see more model runs and will post again before the models say the meaningful snow will begin tomorrow morning.
By the weekend, it will be gone, and drier weather will return until early next week. Next week is what I have been watching for nearly 2 weeks. I have referenced the 17th many times.
Here are the maps in motion, from Monday evening (2/16) through Sunday morning. This is what happens when the ridge finally gets crushed by Arctic air (high pressure) retrograding west across southern Canada.
This is certainly the main event I will be tracking over the coming days.
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Tuesday Update
2/10/26 Tuesday 4 am
I think you all are figuring out that if I don’t post, there is a reason. I am passionate about the weather, and it is a blessing to have an audience to share my thoughts with.
As I get older, I become more convinced that life has a way of helping you redefine your priorities, and there is typically a reason for it. Perhaps it’s just my way of dealing with the”why” as in “why is this happening”?
Enough said.
Missing a couple of days of model runs is like missing an entire season of your favorite show. It takes a while to get back up to speed on what has happened, is happening, and what may happen.
In my previous posts, I discussed a couple of dates that would signal a pattern change. They were February 11th and February 17th. Surprisingly, that has not changed. Since February 11th is tomorrow, I wanted to let you know that my thoughts have not changed.
I talked about conditions that favor low pressure would be more conducive to storm development in the western US. Tomorrow (Feb 11), low pressure will come onshore in Central California. This may bring some snow to areas mainly north of Purgatory, favoring the Northern San Juans. This is not a big storm; it is sketchy at best.
Most of the storm’s energy in Colorado will be in the Central and Northern Mountains. But it will linger for a couple of days; there may be a surprise here or there, but generally speaking, it is not a big deal for us.
The other date I mentioned is February 17th. This date was always more important because we should see the persistent ridge we have endured collapse while a big storm comes onshore in California again. These conditions may persist for 4 to 6 days. Beyond that, models get messy and unreliable.
I will continue to monitor and post as I can.