3/6/26 Friday 4 am

Well, the overnight models look much different from yesterday’s model runs. Model inconsistency after the snow starts falling is frustrating for forecasters.

That, coupled with the setup to our east in the plains states, showing the likelihood of severe weather, immediately cautions me that the forecasts for more snow at Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and the mid-elevation areas will be overdone.

It could be a classic  WTI storm. “Was that  it?” We will see. Either way, Telluride, Red Mountain, and Ouray will still be favored because of the northwest and northerly flow.

NWS made some changes last night:

This one is probably a good call.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

COZ018-061900-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260307T0700Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn
Pass, and Lake City
1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12
  inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...Until midnight MST Friday Night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

This next one has me scratching my head a little:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

COZ019-061900-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260307T0700Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico,
and Hesperus
1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 9500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 9500 feet. Total snow accumulations
  between 5 and 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...Until midnight MST Friday Night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

I hope I am wrong, or I should say, I hope the latest model runs are wrong, because they don’t show anything like this.

Then, we have the geniuses over in Pueblo going out on a limb with a “no fail forecast”.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
127 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

COZ068-061630-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-260307T0700Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass and Cumbres Pass
127 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 9 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until midnight MST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Expect slick and snow
  covered roads at times, especially across Wolf Creek Pass.

This will be interesting, but my money would be on the under.

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3/05/26 Thursday 12:00 pm

An interesting thing happened with the latest suite of model runs. They all came up wth a more favorable storm track for our area.

Precipitation should get underway by 8 pm in the higher elevations. Snow will continue through the day tomorrow, but will be out of our area by 3 am Saturday (I will update that again tomorrow).

If the models are correct, the lower elevations may get a trace to an inch of snow. Mid elevations above 7400 feet, 2 to 5 inches of snow.

Telluride and Wolf Creek: 8 to 12 inches

Red Mountain Pass and Ouray: 10 to 14 inches

Silverton: 6 to 10 inches

Purgatory and Rico: 6 to 10 inches

I am going to try to get up earlier tomorrow so I can do an update covering the overnight model runs.

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3/5/26 Thursday 4:30 am

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the snow totals; however, the theme remains the same: The storm will begin affecting the mountain areas above 9,000 feet very late tonight/tomorrow morning.

Telluride to Red Mountain will get prefrontal snow and post-frontal snow, in favorable NW flow with 6 to 12 inches potentially (I will tighten that up after the morning model runs). Purgatory is looking like 4 to 6 inches. Wolf Creek is still a wild card; some models suggest totals similar to Telluride, others suggest 4 to 6, like Purg. Some mid-elevation areas may get 2 to 4 inches (Vallecito). Lower elevations may just get a burst of snow with the frontal passage.

Here are the latest model runs for the main 3 models I look at. These are liquid totals that could produce some higher ratio totals just before and after the frontal passage.

Canadian

Euro- Durango Doughnut…

GFS-Ambitous

I will be back with a forecast of sorts, between noon and 4 pm.

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3/4/26 Wednesday 5:00 am

After reviewing all the most recent model runs, nothing stands out that would change my mind from 4 to 10 inches.

My caution would be that, given the storm’s track and model projections for what to expect post-frontal passage, it would be a lot easier for the models to be too high with their totals than too low this time.

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Tuesday 3/3/26 5 AM

As expected, the storm affected areas well north of us. The next system up will again be north of us; however, models are starting to show it dipping just far enough south to bring some accumulating snow to the northern forecast area.

At the moment, I don’t believe the lower elevations will be affected. If it dips a little further south, we could see some snow right as the cold front passes.

GFS and Euro are showing 4 to 10 inches of snow. There is plenty of time for that to change. Interesting to note that the German ICON’s latest model is putting out more significant snow. I will be keeping an eye on all of the models and will update everyone.

Models are showing a more impactful storm next Tuesday/Wednesday.  We’ll see.

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3/1/26 Sunday 4:00 am

I have a mountain of email to respond to. I have not been able to do a “deep dive” into my inbox in the last 7 days.

I am trying to establish a new schedule that accommodates Susan’s new dosing schedule and gives me time to get everything done on a daily basis. It is a challenge because there is only so much time in the day, and frankly, I get physically and mentally exhausted.

I appreciate everyone’s concerns and offers to help. At this point, if I brought someone else into the house, it would be at best uncomfortable for Sus, and, at worst, downright confusing to her.

I have been looking at the weather models briefly every other day; unfortunately, there is really nothing to focus on. There are a couple of systems that will hit Colorado this week, but the majority of the action will stay north of us.

I am hoping to establish a new routine, but things change quickly, and it becomes impossible to plan for anything.  Give me a few days to catch up. If I see something in the weather models, I will make time to get the information out.

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That 11:30 AM to 1:45 PM nap was the “reset” her brain desperately needed. You gave her nervous system a chance to cool down. The result was that “confident as hell” window where she actually had the motor control and drive to clean the bathroom—that is a huge win.

The “Pizza and Chocolate” Victory

• The Weight Gain: For someone at 95 pounds, 3/4 of a pizza is a massive caloric deposit. The fat and carbs are the best weapons for her weight.

• The Chocolate Reward: You’re right—chocolate (specifically the protein and caffeine/theobromine) can mess with Levodopa, but since she was in a “Off” or wind-down window, it was the perfect time to give her that joy without sabotaging a critical “On” period.

The Seroquel Paradox

It’s very common to see that “more OCD/PBA” spike right after the Seroquel.

• The Transition: Seroquel is an antipsychotic used to dampen dopamine levels. When it first hits, it can cause a “clash” as it tries to pull her brain down from the high-speed OCD loops. That brief period of agitation is often the brain “fighting” the sedation before it finally surrenders.

• The Result: She is peaceful now because the Seroquel finally won the tug-of-war.

The Late-Night IR Dilemma

You’re considering another instant release when you go to sleep. Given today’s success with fewer doses and her current peace, here is an analytical perspective:

• The Pro: It provides a “floor” of dopamine so she doesn’t wake up at 3:00 AM in a “painful freeze” or a panic-startle.

• The Con: If the Seroquel is currently doing the heavy lifting to keep her calm, adding an IR could potentially “re-clock” her brain and trigger a “pop-up” Akathisia loop just as you’re trying to get your own rest.

The Strategy

If she is truly peaceful and deep in a Seroquel-assisted sleep, you might want to wait until she shows signs of restlessness or “vocalizing” before hitting her with that extra IR. Let her “bank” as much of this quiet sleep as possible.

My response:

“Why in the hell would they prescribe dopamine and anti-dopamine!!!”

“That is the “Seroquel Paradox” you’re living through, and it’s one of the most frustrating aspects of treating advanced Parkinson’s. It feels like you’re pressing the gas and the brake at the same time.

Here is the scientific—and very human—reason why doctors do this:

1. The “Dopamine Seesaw”

In Susan’s brain, the dopamine levels are constantly swinging.

• The Lows (Off periods): She can’t move, she freezes, and she feels physical pain. You give her an IR (Levodopa) to “recreate” that dopamine so she can function.  

• The Highs (Dyskinesia/Psychosis): When the dopamine gets too high or hits the “wrong” parts of the brain, it triggers the Akathisia (restlessness), the PBA (emotional outbursts), and the OCD loops.

2. Why Seroquel? (The “Specific” Brake)

Most antipsychotics block dopamine so aggressively that they would make her Parkinson’s symptoms (the freezing) much worse. Seroquel (Quetiapine) is used because it is “loose.”  

• It binds to dopamine receptors very lightly and then falls off quickly.  

• The goal is to “dampen” the over-activity in the emotional/thinking part of the brain (stopping the OCD and panic) without completely killing the dopamine she needs for her muscles to move.

3. Why it feels like a “Clash”

When you give her the Seroquel, it’s trying to quiet the “noise” in her head. But because she also has the Levodopa in her system, her brain essentially has two different signals fighting for control.

• This is likely why you see that hour-long agitation before she finally falls asleep. Her brain is resisting the “brake” because it’s still revved up from the “gas.”

I don’t know

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2/23/26 Monday 2:30 am

I am not so sure about this list of local reports. I think this is a mix of Friday-only totals and the event totals.

The models seem to be in disarray right now.  Perhaps they will get a better read after the Nor’easter moves further out to sea.

At the moment, it looks like just a slight chance of snow on Wednesday night or Thursday in the higher elevations. We are definitely going to warm up, and the dreaded ridge is coming back for at least 7 to 10 days.

Wolf Creek 59 (remember, that is what the Canadian Model forecasted!)
Purgatory 37
Telluride 29 inches

0.4 inches: Ridgway
1.7 inches: Ridgway
4 inches: 2.5 miles NE of Cortez
5 inches: Hwy 172 between Ignacio and Oxford
6 inches: Marvel Spring (just south of)
Over 6 inches: Southern Bluffs Subdiv, SE Cortez
At least 6 inches: West Pagosa Springs
7 inches: Sunnyside school – Mesa
7 inches: 6 miles east of Ignacio
Approximately 7 inches: Ouray
7.5 inches: 32nd St. at Holly
8 inches: Jackson Lake/Mancos
8 inches: Mancos
8 inches: Downtown Mancos
10 inches: Highland Ave, Durango
10+ inches: Edgemont Ranch
10.25 inches: 7 miles west of Mancos (7,190 ft)
10–12 inches: Forest Lakes (7,400 ft)
11 inches: 3.5 miles from Mancos on Rd 40
12 inches: Mesa Heights (Elmores Corner)
12 inches: 2305 Columbine Drive, Durango
12 inches: East side of Animas Valley
12 inches: 3 miles south of Mancos (7,000 ft)
12–14 inches: Gem Village
13 inches: Elk Spring Subdivision, Mancos Hill
13 inches: 1395 CR 207
Approximately 13–14 inches: Town of Mancos
14 inches: Bayfield (Dove Ranch)
14 inches: Hermosa
14 inches: Animas Valley Elementary
14 inches: 3 Springs
14.25 inches: 17 Bacus Ave, Durango
15 inches: Twin Buttes
15 inches: 7 miles up Dolores River Valley
15 inches: Rockridge
15 inches: Timberline
15.1 inches: 1034 E 5th Ave, Durango
16 inches: 2.5 miles north of Elmores Corner (CR 234)
16 inches: Edgemont (Roof of home)
16 inches: Hesperus (7,800 ft)
16 inches: Rafter J (7,400 ft)
16 inches: Deer Valley
16.5 inches: 1922 CR 125
16–17 inches: Downtown Bayfield
17 inches: Edgemont Highlands
17 inches: CR 234/CR 225
17.3 inches: Pine River Ranches
17.9 inches: Three Springs
18 inches: CRs 228 and 502 (7,671 ft)
18 inches: Willow Dr
18 inches: Destination Ranch (Bottom gate)
18 inches: 3 miles N of Mancos
Approximately 18 inches: Upper end of Pine River Ranches
19.5 inches: Lower Forest Lakes
20 inches: Edgemont
20 inches: 598 Bellflower Rd, Bayfield
20 inches: Upper Florida Estates
20 inches: Upper Forest Lakes
20 inches: The Enclave at North Dalton
20–24 inches: Forest Lakes (8,200 ft)
21.3 inches: Edgemont Highlands
21.4 inches: Lower Forest Lakes
21.5 inches: 8,200 ft (Bayfield area)
22 inches: O-Bar-O Cabins (CR 240)
22 inches: DVE (7,300 ft)
22 inches: Turtle Lake
22.1 inches: Hermosa (near train depot)
22.5 inches: Lower Los Ranchitos
23 inches: Top of Hawks Meadow Drive (7,600 ft)
24 inches: Buckhorn Rd, Upper Forest Lakes
24 inches: Hermosa
24.5 inches: Falls Creek Ranch (7,500 ft)
25 inches: Los Ranchitos Estates
26 inches: Top of Enchanted Forest
26 inches: Destination Ranch (Top of subdivision, 8,000 ft)
26.3 inches: Falls Creek Ranch
27 inches: Hesperus (8,150 ft)
27.1 inches: Polar Hamlet (Silverton)
28 inches: Lemon Dam (8,200 ft)
30 inches: North end of Vallecito
30–32 inches: Mayday
32–36 inches: Lemon, Sierra Verde, Wilderness Lakes
42 inches: Rico

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2/22/26 Sunday 6 am

I had a really tough day, fortunately I got a lot of sleep last night. I will get on it 3 or 4 am.

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2/21/26 Saturday 3:30 am

I received several play-by-play reports throughout the week. But I am interested in the event totals for the week from those of you who were keeping track. I have only received a couple since it officially stopped, which took a while yesterday. The sun would come out for a minute, then “left overs” would blow through, causing near-whiteout conditions. Very fun!

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