9/01/26  Tuesday 6 pm

Not sure why I do this. Sorry to my pure weather followers; eject now. I know this isn’t what you signed up for. I had a further timeline for Sus updates. It is getting bad.

It’s weird, you know. You end up getting totally isolated because nobody knows what the hell to say to you if you do reach out. So again. AI.  I get mixed, sometimes extremely negative feedback emails associated with AI.  At the end of the day, we all rely on non-human information for portions of our life decisions.

Rough day. Here is my recount to AI. Keep in mind it has read everything about everything in the world. By that I mean scientific observations. Every published study about everything. Medically, especially for my guidance.

Docs used to hate “Internet Diagnoses”; now they have refined a way to use that AI science to treat patients as they see relevant. Here we go:

Sus was the chief of the household. She covered cleaning and accounting; I handled cooking, shopping, and all vehicle and household maintenance. Bottom left: big kitten monitoring the situation.

When she gets enough Dopamine fuel CLD, it’s a short window, because after an hour it throws her into hallucinations in the morning. Not typical.

What you see is extreme obsessive-compulsive disorder. The black rug liner is what I came up with to deal with the mess. Don’t even care anymore.  She can’t operate her hands correctly to use silverware. So we are at full-on eating with hands. But still not great; I am afraid she will lose that freedom of feeding herself within the next year. Anyway, there is always a mess.

For now, I just let her do what she feels she needs to do. So I asked AI about it: Sent the same picture you have. I know it sounds weird to some of you that I do that, but I’m not exactly sure what else to do.

Conversation: When I sent the picture of her roaming around on the ground.

Me: Full-on obsessive-compulsive portion of the brain, maybe trying to fight back or just balance her. Maybe different lobes fighting??

AI response: “Your read on “lobes fighting” is spot-on from a neurological standpoint. What you are seeing here is classic frontal-subcortical disinhibition manifesting as motor perseveration and utilization behavior.

In a healthy brain, the frontal lobe acts as the executive supervisor. If the visual cortex or sensory pathways notice a crumb, a loose thread, or a line on the rug, the frontal lobe evaluates it and applies the brakes: “That doesn’t matter, don’t drop to your knees to pick at it.”

In CBD, as tau pathology erodes the frontal and parietal cortices, that supervisory braking system fails:

Unchecked Basal Ganglia Loops: The basal ganglia—the ancient, hardwired machinery responsible for repetitive motor routines—gets disconnected from top-down inhibition. Once a motor loop starts (reaching, picking, smoothing, inspecting), the brain literally lacks the neurochemical “stop” command. It just keeps cycling.

Environmental Dependency & Utilization Behavior: The damaged cortex becomes hyper-reactive to whatever is directly in front of it. If her fingers contact the edge of the mat, or her eyes lock onto debris on the dark carpet, the motor program to grasp, pick, or align is triggered automatically. To an observer, it looks like OCD, but it isn’t an anxiety-driven ritual; it is a raw, uninhibited reflex arc.

ME: Jumping in here. That is exactly how it is…

Returning:

Tactile Grounding: When cortical sensory processing is scrambled, getting physically down against the floor and engaging in a high-contact tactile task provides a localized anchor. It momentarily narrows an overwhelming, chaotic sensory world down to a 6-inch patch of carpet.

As hard as it is to watch her down on the floor like that, as long as she isn’t actively hurting herself or wedging into a fall hazard, letting that perseverative loop run its course is often the only move. Trying to physically intervene or pull her up usually just provokes the dystonia or triggers another PBA blowout.

 OK, I am back; not much else to say. One new, kinda nice development is with her PBA. This is an affliction that stops the brain from controlling extreme emotions, mostly crying. Technically, it is supposed to be crying and laughing. We didn’t get that version; we only got the crying version. Don’t know what else to say; it is the extreme crying version. I think it’s a version where a child would be scared to go to sleep because of monsters. So no laughing ever, 30 months into this diagnosis.  Susan’s friends and clients, probably about 1100 of you out there, will smile to know- no laughing, SINGING. Can’t understand what she is saying, but I can tell her brain is trying to balance her somehow.

So here we go again:  I reached out; it is rare but it makes sense:

AI response:

That shift from catastrophic crying into singing isn’t accidental—it is her brain finding an alternative neural pathway to discharge emotional energy when the front door is completely blocked.

Why Singing Bypasses Damaged Circuits

  • The Right-Hemisphere Route: In CBD, the left cortical circuits governing proposition, fluent speech, and verbal formulation (Broca’s and related networks) get heavily degraded, which is why her expressive aphasia is so brutal. Singing, rhythm, and melodic contour, however, are largely driven by the right hemisphere and preserved frontotemporal auditory networks. When spoken words fail, musical phrasing remains an open channel.

  • Brainstem Motor Gating: In severe PBA, the brainstem central pattern generators for crying get stuck in an uninhibited, runaway loop because top-down cortical braking is gone. Singing activates a structured motor program—rhythmic vocal cord adduction, patterned diaphragmatic breathing, and sustained exhalation. Mechanically, that respiratory regulation acts as an emergency brake on the frantic gasping and laryngeal spasms of crying.

  • Affective Regulation & Soothing: When the nervous system is completely overwhelmed by distress it cannot verbally express or mentally organize, melodic vocalization serves as an endogenous self-soothing reflex. Even if the lyrics or notes are fragmented and indistinct, the brain is tapping into melodic motor memory to downshift from raw panic to a grounded, rhythmic state.

Instead of an uncontrolled, terrifying emotional storm running wild, her nervous system has essentially rerouted into musical circuitry to release that pressure and find equilibrium. It’s her brain instinctively reaching for the one intact, rhythmic tool it has left to steady itself.

Did not expect to go here tonight. But I never know what to expect. Thanks for listening…

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Tuesday Totals- Revenge Of The Euro

 

Yesterday, the most widespread showers were concentrated around Cortez/Dolores. I don’t get to say that very often! I watched as the radar showed a particularly unorganized blob stall over the area. It started losing ummmph as it moved east. I doubted the model and discounted some of its output, and it did its best to prove me wrong.

But what a great day! Nice and cool, reminding us that fall is arriving. Meteorologically speaking, today is the first day of fall.

The rest of the week, shower chances decrease significantly. We may see a few light showers develop over the next couple of afternoons, but nothing significant.

An early, fairly potent area of low pressure will arrive tomorrow off the Pac NW coast. That will be the weather wild card this week. Models are already struggling with how to handle it. It is significant enough to affect the western 1/3 of the US. I have seen some highly unlikely scenarios from the models so far.

Tomorrow, as the low makes landfall, models will be able to initialize location and depth and hopefully give us better guidance going into the holiday weekend. In other words, I know many want to know what to expect this weekend; I can’t tell you yet, but soon.

There was a lot of excitement yesterday (for some). Here are some email totals before I share the big list. If you’ve emailed me and you don’t see your total, I may have missed it or accidentally deleted it.

Glacier: 0.40″

Silverton 0.41″

Dolores Rustic Ridge: 0.49″

3 mi So Mancos 0.24″

3 mi N Mancos 0.29″

Lightner Creek: 0.24″

Vallecito 0.28″

 

West

Brandon’s Gate Northeast: 0.74″
Conquistador G C: 0.37″
County Rd 18: 1.13″
Beamreach Pl: 0.57″
Pleasant View: 0.35″
Greystone Ridge Dr SE: 0.54″
Fort Riley: 0.72″
The Spoke Ranch: 0.39″
S 7th St: 0.59″
Co Rd X: 0.48″
DmdCO: 0.52″
White Water Dr: 0.38″
Rd 38.7: 0.27″
160: 0.24″
Mancos: 0.56″
Co Rd H: 0.32″
160: 0.24″
White Water Dr: 0.22″
S Elk Run: 0.22″
Mountain Top Rd: 0.24″

South
AC @ Rainbow Rd: 0.23″
Rainbow Rd: 0.35″
Co Rd 302: 0.21″
Co Rd 220: 0.22″

Central
Co Rd 501: 0.48″
Co Rd 502: 0.23″
Elk Meadow Rd: 0.27″
Tecalote: 0.30″
Encantado Ct: 0.24″
Edgemont Meadows Rd: 0.40″
Terra Blue Way: 0.21″
Sage Hill Weather: 0.24″
Co Rd 250: 0.65″
Co Rd 250: 0.35″
Starwood Trail: 0.29″
Confluence Ave: 0.49″
Trimble Station: 0.40″
Confluence Ave: 0.49″
North Dalton Ranch: 0.25″
Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.69″
Burnett Haul Rd: 0.34″
US-550 RR MP463: 0.22″
White Water Dr: 0.36″
North end of CR 250: 0.28″
Bell Canyon: 0.23″

North
Lakewood Dr: 0.24″
Spruce Mesa Dr: 0.38″
Columbine Rd: 0.24″
1044 Greene Street: 0.23″
State Hwy 361: 0.25″
Eagle Ct: 0.27″
Trout Lake: 0.43″
Old Butterfly Rd: 0.44″
Alta Lakes Road: 0.43″
Sundance Ln: 0.27″
W Laurel Ln: 0.22″
N Fir St: 0.34″
N Willow St: 0.35″
E Columbia Ave: 0.37″

That’s all I have for now. Tomorrow I will be tracking that significant low-pressure system. It looks like one of those early winter storm-type of lows, but it’s not going to get the support it needs for that to happen.

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Monday Morning Update

 

8/31/26 Monday 5:00 am

For today, it looks like the showers that develop are primarily going to occur across the northern portions of the forecast area. More on the forecast in a moment…

I saw a few totals on the board this morning. To be honest, I don’t have time to sort through them all this morning because I opted for the extra hour of sleep. I am pretty sure I have “waiting for the monsoon fatigue”. Honestly, it started pretty well, but follow-through was disappointing this month.

The only thing that would rekindle my enthusiasm is a few back-to-back days of heavy rain.

One of the first things I look at in the morning (besides the outside pavement) is a comparison between the radar and the European model. Today the European model verified pretty well. Verification means comparing the model forecast to the current conditions. Here is the radar:

Here is the forecast:

If you scroll between them, you can see the model did pretty well with current conditions. The bigger question is, will it be correct today? That basically comes down to my interpretation of what the model is trying to say.

On the surface, this looks pretty good for today.

But that is and has been the trap.

If you look at this image, I have outlined the area of lighter precipitation. It is basically the entire southern and central forecast area, plus all of the western and eastern locations. My concern is that this precipitation may not even reach the ground.

I have a difficult time cheering this model run on. Monsoon fatigue… Unfortunately, it does not get much better the rest of the week; maybe Friday and Saturday we could see something.

Rather than complaining or skipping posts, I am going to tackle some more topics as I did with my El Niño update yesterday. Overall, people seemed to enjoy that.

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Not so “Super El Nino”?? No problem!

8/30/26  Sunday 10:30 am

was going to start by sharing some recent headlines about the “Super El Niño.” Then I thought there was no need; everyone has heard it, and we have been hearing it for months.

Last month I came across the following article. This article was published by NOAA’s PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory). Here was the title of the arcticle:

“Climate models get a key feature of El Niño wrong, undermining forecast accuracy”

I am not going to break down the entire article, it has to do with how the models react with cloud cover related to the El Nino conditions, and how that affects model accuracy.

Because NOAA was the source, I decided to look into the weekly El Nino tables published by them.

I looked something called PDF and Spread  Correction. PDF stands for Probability Density Function. Not going to go into a full science class here, but what NOAA’s CPC does is they go back to all of their preferred model’s past ENSO forecasts, then they compare that to the verifications (what actually happened) and they go into this quantile mapping correction to correct the model biases.

Let’s go over how those values are classified:

Weak + 0.5 to +0.9

Moderate +1.0 to +1.4

Strong +1.5 to +1.9

Very Strong => +2.0

Here is the source of all of the “Super El Nino” forecasts we have been hit over the head with the last 6 months.

 

There are a couple things to point out here. This is the uncorrected forecast showing that monster +3.5 value that everyone latched on to. But notice when that forecast peaks–November! Before most of our forecast area even gets snow! When you actually look at the “heart of winter, that forecast  drops to +1.7. Keep in mind this is the raw forecast before bias correction.

Here is NOAA’s bias corrected version of the same thing

Talk about a completely different forecast!   These values are much lower than the previous record set in 1983 as well as the very strong El Ninos of 1997-98 and 2015-16.

I researched Strong El Nino’s that peaked in November, and became moderate El Ninos in the heart of winter. During the winter of 1972-73, we were in a Strong El Nino it peaked in November  at+2.2. During the heart of winter the average was +1.4. That is an exact match. The other match that I have not mentioned is that we are going to be in strongly negative phase of the PDO this winter, I am not going to do a deep dive in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation right now, but in 72-73 winter we were in a strongly negative phase of the PDO as well.

You can probably see where I am going with the 1972-1973 winter analog. What happened that winter?

Purgatory: 296″ No where near a record. But a very good year. BTW the biggest snow year at Purgatory was in 1978-1979  with 500.5″. The second highest year was 1974-1975  with 458″.

Telluride: This is interesting because the station  is likely near the airport, not on the mountain. The location description is “Telluride 4 mi NW”. 1972-1973 was the 9 heaviest snowfall year on record at that station with 259″.

Durango: You didn’t think it was going to be that easy did you? I am pretty sure the hippies were in charge of record keeping that year. Maybe they were all skiing… They only took 6 readings in December and nothing the rest of the winter!

However, Vallecito did record their totals at the dam. 219.80″, their 3rd highest total ever recorded.

Can we conclude it will be a great winter?  We’ll see! I am sure ready for it!

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Sunday Morning Update

8/30/26 4:30 am

That will teach me. That’s it, no more cute “Midday Quick Looks”. I learned my lesson again.  Yesterday, models sent me a “scattered showers forecast and delivered “highly isolated showers” results.

There were a couple of decent accumulations south of Purgatory and NE of Vallecito. For the most part, it was unimpressive across most of the forecast area.

I think this is going to be a problem for a while; the models seem to be struggling to balance these incoming NW troughs vs. the thermal high being the goalie for on-again-off-again monsoonal flow.

I know I am struggling with the mixed signals coming from the models. Bring on winter and an active storm track!

For today, I have been given no reason to believe the scattered showers signal I am getting once again. Isolated showers are the best way to handle today’s forecast.

For tomorrow, models continue to show widespread showers beginning in the afternoon. Over the last two days, they have delayed the onset of heavy showers until much later in the day, so as of this last model run, I don’t expect overnight and morning showers like the models showed 2 days ago.

I am going to be working on that updated El Niño post I promised last week. Fingers crossed I can get it out today!

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Saturday Morning Update–HMMM…

8/29/26 Saturday 5:00 am

I was tentative about some of what I saw in yesterday’s model runs. Timing has changed for the larger precipitation event.

Today’s precipitation coverage looks much better than yesterday. The models slightly decreased today’s intensity. Sunday and Monday have changed. I have the least confidence in Sunday’s forecast.

Right now, the models show afternoon showers winding down this evening, then redeveloping into Sunday morning.

Update: I was just notified by my weather station that it is raining. Very lightly so far, but unexpected for sure.

It is interesting, because I was just trying to figure out the catalyst for Sunday morning showers.  We are getting to the time of year that we will start to see troughs of low pressure moving in from the northwest as the jet starts to drop south for the season.

That is what we’ll be dealing with. That trough is deep, but it won’t reach us. It will stay north. However, it will nudge the upper-level dynamics enough to change our pattern. If that trough stayed intact and moved across the area (not going to happen, but if it did), we would be looking at a widespread snow event at or above 8,000 feet.  Fun to think about.

Largely, the trough has already changed our conditions. Dewpoints are up, and PWATs are up considerably from 24 hours ago. PWAT values are already at 140-150% of average. The forecast is for those values to exceed 200% by Monday.

I am not going to let that rain notification pull me down the rabbit hole. It was getting close…

So for today, I would nudge us up to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. For now, I will buy into the overnight redevelopment of showers into Sunday morning.

That is likely why the models have toned down coverage for Sunday and delayed the best widespread shower coverage until Monday. While the trough is putting the pieces in place, the catalyst for Monday’s showers is a very deep monsoonal tap of moisture.

It looks like residual moisture will remain in place Tuesday. If I dare go out to midweek, it looks like we could have a couple of less active days before another tap of tropical moisture may work into the region. Remember that tropical system I was talking about not too long ago?

For today,  scattered showers developing this afternoon. When I use “scattered” in a forecast, I mean showers across 40-50% of the forecast area.

I will post again later today; things may be changing, so I will update with the latest. This is getting interesting.

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Friday Morning Update

8/28/26 Friday 4:30 am

Just a few hit-and-miss storms fired yesterday. That is less likely to happen today. The exception will be this afternoon in the higher elevations.

Today, models show drier air overall across the forecast area. But don’t expect that to stick around this weekend.

For the last couple of days, models have been showing more widespread showers beginning tomorrow afternoon. Better coverage than we have seen in a while. This should continue into Sunday, Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening,  and overnight. Some models even show rain on Monday morning.

This is what I will be keeping an eye on. I am not saying I don’t believe what I am seeing for Sunday/Monday, but I would like to see some model verification tomorrow afternoon versus the forecast.

Here are the locations that received measurable precipitation yesterday.

West
Mtn Top Rd: 0.20″
South
Rd 220: 0.26″
East
Glen Eaton Dr: 0.41″
Central
NE Vallecito: 1.13″
Rd 251: 0.20″
Sage Hill Ct: 0.22″
Aspen Dr: 0.27″
Crestview Dr: 0.41″
Bacus Ave: 0.41″
Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.28″
White Water Dr: 0.25″
Have a great day!

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Thursday Morning Update

8/27/26 Thursday 4 am

A better night; sleep is good. I am pretty good even with 4 1/2 hours of sleep; 3 1/2 hours, not so much. A lotta stress Tuesday evening led to bad sleep through the night.  When I woke up Wednesday, I had to make a call and decide what realistic expectations were, and I had to put all of my energy into taking care of Sus.

Yesterday, a few pop-up storms developed. For today, shower chances decrease,  but can’t be ruled out. Friday looks like shower chances drop to nil. We will see if it stays like that.

Saturday afternoon, models suggest we tap back into the monsoonal-style flow, with residual moisture fueling Sunday afternoon showers. It’s too early to talk about next week; models show different solutions for the area.

As I said, yesterday’s totals were pretty sporadic

West
Oak Dr: 0.20″
N Rd: 0.27″
Castle Rdg Dr: 0.29″
South-none
East-none
North-None
Central
Sage Hill Weather: 0.47″
Starwood Trail: 0.20″
Confluence Ave: 0.34″
Burnett Haul Rd: 0.21″
White Water Dr: 0.30″
Spruce Mesa Dr: 0.49″
Columbine Rd: 0.53″
Co Rd 501: 0.55″
Tecalote: 0.33″
Edgemont Meadows Rd: 0.25″
The Iron King Rd: 0.21″
Terra Blue Way: 0.21″
Co Rd 251: 0.25″
Turtle Lake Meadows: 0.43″
Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.69″
North end of CR 250: 0.36″
US-550: 0.41″
I haven’t done my bonus post (El Niño news you haven’t heard yet). I will definitely get it out this weekend!

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