Saturday Afterrnoon

4/25/26 Saturday noon
Models remain in consensus that the West Coast low will continue to track eastward, with SW Colorado in its sights.
Much of what I have talked about over the last couple of days remains unchanged. I was unsure if the rain would be stratiform (gentle) or convective (thunderstorms). I am now leaning towards thunderstorms tomorrow. The Euro finally showed some orographic enhancement, as the other models did for days.
Every model increased the total precipitation in the higher elevations over a foot of snow is likely on all of the passes Wolf Creek should see a lttle more-cal it 18 iinces.However, that is before melting, even with cold temps. As I explained yesterday, The angle of the sun speeds up melting by warming up the pavement-even when its cloudy.
As soon as this storm moves out late Sunday night, leftovers will arrive on Monday, triggering pop-up showers. Not everyone will even see rain, but I can’t tell you with any confidence where those showers set up. A general rule is that the areas that had the most precip Sunday, will see more on Monday. The precipitation totals on Monday will be much lower than what we get on Sunday.
I will check in tomorrow morning.
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Saturday Short Morning Update

4/25/26 Saturday 5:00 am
I will go into more details after the morning model runs. I just wanted to assure, or warn (whatever the case may be), everyone that the models still look great for a constructive precipitation event.  It will not affect any plans you have for today. It will be impactful over the passes tomorrow.
Most models increased precipitation totals over the last 24 hours, the biggest increases were in the most recent model runs. That is a good sign.
The only debate at this point is whether the precipitation will be stratiform or convective. Put another way, will it be a consistent, steady rain, or will it be stormy with enhanced precipitation “upsloping” the higher elevations?
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The good and bad of AI

4/24/26 Holy crap

So I was trying to send out an update. I pulled up the template, and all of the links were red. So I gave Gemini permission to fix it from red to green. Then it sent it that last post with no information. Sorry

I was about to talk about ways anyone can use AI to help them. I use specific threads (conversations) to keep conversations focused on the topic I need information on.

And I still will. I opened this convo at the end of December and have been feeding videos to Gemini Pro, mostly PBA and Apraxia events. I asked the AI to summarize the discussions so I could email the doc prior to the appointment.

Here it was.  I think well done. I am wondering what my Doc followers think. There was a time when Docs hated “the search.” Not so sure that is the case anymore, would love to hear from Docs about this. I understand. But I would hope that because the Neuro Doc spends 4 hours a year on the Patient, they should welcome the feedback.

SO here was the summary: Too short in my opinion.

Patient Observation Summary: Sus
**Date Range:** Late 2025 – April 24, 2026
**Primary Caretaker:** Jeff Givens

### 1. Medication Adjustments & Recent Observations
* **Donepezil Taper:** Successfully tapered Donepezil due to suspected conflict with Levodopa.
* **Finding:** Observed that Donepezil appeared to trigger **aphasia** first, followed by severe **PBA (Pseudobulbar Affect)**, which then cascaded into **respiratory apraxia**.
* **Current Status:** Since tapering, the “It hurts!” (gastric distress/stomach acid) reports have significantly decreased.
* **Levodopa (Immediate Release):** Transitioning to a clearer focus on LD efficiency.
* **Absorption Issues:** Previously noted erratic absorption; recent reduction in gastric “friction” (less stomach acid/gastric juices) seems to be allowing the IR dose to hit more effectively.

### 2. Symptom Presentation & Breakthroughs
* **PBA & OCD Loops:** Episodes often present as sudden “stumbles” into emotional dysregulation, even after stable periods.
* **Recent Success (4/24/26):** Navigated the difficult 2:00 PM window with no PBA or OCD flares, indicating a more stable dopamine baseline.
* **Physical Symptoms:** Ongoing management of rigidity (noted in her non-dominant arm) and apraxia during high-stress episodes.

### 3. Caretaker Notes for Monday Appointment
* **The “Acid Tax”:** Requesting the doctor’s perspective on the interaction between cholinesterase inhibitors (Donepezil) and gastric acid levels interfering with Levodopa absorption.
* **The “Afternoon Shadow”:** Observations on late-day fatigue triggering PBA outbreaks even when morning/midday doses are effective.

 

So that is what I will share, but Doc should (hopefully) use her own observations.

 

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Friday Update-Sunday Storm/Monday Leftovers

4/24/26 Friday 6:oo am

I am very pleased with how everything is coming together for our next precipitation event. The West Coast storm will approach our area on Saturday night, bringing abundant moisture (175% of normal).

Showers may start as early as Saturday evening, but the main event waits until Sunday morning. Initial snow levels look to be 9,500 feet. There are some indications that snow levels will drop, but I will try to make that call tomorrow morning or afternoon.

If this were the dead of winter, we would be talking about pass-level snow of 1 1/2 – 2 feet. The “strength” (angle) of the sun this time of year will limit accumulations during the day.

Up to 3/4 of an inch of rain is possible across the mid elevations, with 1/2 of an inch likely the norm in most lower-elevation areas. As always, expect anomalies. It’s also worth mentioning that with all of these high-conviction storms we have had, the models underpredicted precipitation amounts. To clarify, by “high-conviction” I mean the consensus of multiple models across all parameters.

Here are the European model’s maps in motion.

Map Guide

European

GFS

Canadian

German

I don’t expect major changes in the models this morning, but if there are. I will jump back on early afternoon. Otherwise, my next update will be Saturday morning.

 

 

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Tuesday Update

4/21/26 Tuesday 5 am

Well, this week’s not going to turn out as wet as I was seeing on the models last week, but next week looks good according to the European. I hear you. Why is it always next week? A variety of reasons, including historical and seasonal. It’s frustrating, I know.

We will have to see how this evolves over the coming days. For this week, there are just a couple of chances for light pop-up showers today and Thursday. The higher elevations will be favored.

The Euro shows a pattern change beginning Saturday night. and continuing into early May. It looks great, but I remain cautious about getting too attached to that solution because the European is the only model that shows it so deliberately.

This means either the European is right, and the other models have not sniffed it out. Or, it means the European is wrong. I would expect this to be answered in the next 48 hours.

All models show decent precipitation totals between now and May 1st, mostly in the mountains, which is fine; they just get there differently (right for the wrong reasons).

In short, I don’t have any big storms to talk about, but I am starting to get “Are you Ok?” emails. So I thought I better post.

Now is not the time, but I will update everyone on Susan’s condition after her Neuro appointment on Monday.

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Wednesday Update

4/15/26 Wednesday 9 am

Sorry for my absence. It has been very challenging lately. I had a moment of peace, so I thought I would let you know that we are far from done with precipitation this month. Multiple chances are coming next week. The little Friday storm will be mostly a miss. Red Mountain and Telluride have the best chances of getting 1 to 3 inches of snow.

I think April will be our wettest month since last October. The next best chance of widespread showers is Monday and Wednesday next week. As we get closer, I will keep you updated.

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Monday Afternoon

4/13/26 Monday 1 pm

BTW Freeze Warning for late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

 

There are still discrepancies in precipitation among the models. That said, I think the lower elevations (< 6,800′) can expect 0.50″ or more of rain.  7,400 and above 0.50 to 1.00″ inches of liquid precipitation. I also think there will be a chance of snow above 7,400″, which will be sloppy and unmeasurable.

For snow, it will have a difficult time accumulating until the cold front comes through.  At or below 9,500″ it looks like 3 to 6″. Above 9,500–8 to 12″.

For the far northern areas-Silverton, Telluride, I am going to hopecast 3 to 6″. Lizard Head and Red Mountain 8 to 12″. Wolf Creek 10 to 14″.

I am hoping to post in the morning.

 

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Monday Morning

4/13/26 Monday 4:30 am

Everything looks good. I am leaning more on the European model for guidance. It did pretty well during the early-month storm, with lower-elevation totals.

Here is the European model in motion, now through late Wednesday night.

Here is its precipitation forecast

The first thing that jumps off the page is the higher totals from Durango down to the NM border. If it were December, this would be one of those storms that I would have said that areas south of Durango would get more than Purgatory.

You could draw a straight line from that bullseye north of Farmingto(.66) up to Wolf Creek. That is the current projected storm path of the low-pressure system.

Let’s hope the morning models also see this as well. I will be just after noon today.

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Sunday Afternoon Update

4/12/26 Sunday 11:30

First of all, I unintentionally teased another storm on my last post, but I got sidetracked with the millibars and forgot to talk about it.

I don’t know yet how well it will come together; if it does, there will be more precipitation on Friday. Looking beyond, I see 3 more chances of mountain snow before the end of April!

Models are coming in, and things still look great for the Tuesday storm. In fact, 3 of the 4 models are showing higher totals than the previous runs.

Next update tomorrow morning.

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