Sunday Afternoon Model Updates

On By durangoweatherguy

Sunday 12:30 pm

Showers are starting to pop up. This has nothing to do with the upcoming storm. We should have similar conditions tomorrow.  As we shift to SW flow, we could see higher amounts on Tuesday.

First, sorry about the error post. I am very sensitive to getting a clogged-up inbox. For now, I am going to take a break from the Sus Posts pages and concentrate on this incredible event that looks like it is headed this way Wednesday through Friday.

From the emails I’ve received, it looks like everyone needs to travel on Thursday, which, at this moment, looks like the heaviest day of precipitation.

I will follow up, but for now, it’s too early to determine snow levels. The models sometimes get confused by subtropical air masses with setups like this.

Also, we can’t get completely married to the timing. As we learned with the last one, the low-pressure system will do what it wants when it wants. I noticed the NWS got a little more engaged with this event in their late-morning discussion.

I won’t share every model like I did this morning. But I have gone through them, most have higher totals this afternoon. If you have not read this morning’s post, read it here.

Here are the latest model runs:

NOAA’s NBM

European

Canadian-Holy Bullseye Yikes!

I will be back in the morning!

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Oooops

On By durangoweatherguy

It happened again. I did not mean to send that post out about Sus; I hit the wrong button while constructing the page. I will let you know when things are done; until then disregard. I will have another weather update out soon.

Sunday Morning: Crazy Model Consensus: You Need To Read This!

On By durangoweatherguy

10/18/26 Sunday 4 am

I got a great night’s sleep, and I feel better than I have in over a week. I say that because I want everybody to know I am looking at these models with my brain firing at full capacity.

I add that disclaimer because I want people to know that I am very serious when I say. SW Colorado, we may have a problem.

I am not hearing enough chatter about this precipitation event. This looks a lot bigger than the last one. Streams and rivers had a short period of time to recede, but they’re starting from an elevated baseline—meaning this next round will hit saturated ground and high channels very quickly.

At this point, I urge Cities’ EMS and even CDOT to start looking at the potential impacts this event could have on our area.

As I said, I have never seen such overwhelming model consensus on an incoming storm in all my years doing this. I am not trying to scare anybody, but as I said, nobody is talking about this. The NWS had one sentence in their discussion about “the possibility of substantial rain in the four corners mid to late week”. I don’t think that goes far enough.

I just don’t want anyone to be caught off guard. Those of you who live in areas affected by flash flooding or flooding need to at least think about how to prepare.

I don’t know all of the vulnerable locations in the six-county area. But you residents do. Don’t wait for the Wednesday morning Herald article quoting an NWS forecaster from a Tuesday phone call.

I have many models to share. I haven’t been able to share these other models because they are shorter-term. But now, their range is finally within the event’s envelope.

I also think it’s important to note that most locations have exceeded the models’ forecasts over the last 6 weeks.

GFS- it’s still struggling. None of the others are. The precipitation spread makes no sense for any approaching storm in any conditions, ever. But I will leave it in here as an outlier.

European

NOAA NBM: This is a big deal, because this is almost always the most conservative model.

NOAA WPC (Weather Prediction Center)

UKMET (NOAA equivalent in the UK)

Canadian

ICON (Germany)

Again, I am not trying to be an alarmist. But the fact that even the NWS Grand Junction is only giving one sentence about this, that is easy to skim right over, is concerning to me.

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Saturday Morning: Another 10 inch Month???

On By durangoweatherguy

10/17/26 Saturday 3:00 am

Today and Sunday

Pretty quiet today. Tomorrow, a weakened system may attach itself to some of Simon’s moisture, triggering a few showers Sunday and perhaps Monday. It may happen, but models show no big totals right now.

On Tuesday, flow looks like it will switch back to SW, bringing in the initial bands of moisture even though the actual storm system will be well off the California Coast. I am leaning towards Tuesday being our official event start. I still need a couple of days to figure out the timing.  Even though it’s too early to pin down the timing, I know many will want an idea of what to expect this week, so here’s my best guess based on what I am seeing in the models.

Tuesday we transition to SW flow with light showers. Wednesday-Thursday periods of moderate to heavy rain. Friday: very heavy rain (I am still not sure about snow levels; they’ll start very high and drop by late Thursday and Friday). For now, the system looks like it will move out by Saturday midday.  I am sure we will get a curveball or two, so this is subject to change

Model Runs

I’m still amazed at how much precipitation the models are pumping out for our next storm.

It made me look ahead, since the major daily model runs now officially extend through the end of October. As crazy as it sounds, this week’s potentially major event may not be the last one for the month.

In fact, the storm train coming down from Alaska looks very active through the end of the month. Additionally, this Eastern Pacific Hurricane factory won’t slow down any time soon.

The systems heading down the California Coast are potent enough without tropical moisture. But these storm systems are big enough to absorb any moisture in the general vicinity (within several hundred miles).  They would also provide additional fuel for storm development.

That said, if all of this happens, our October rain totals could exceed September’s.

Here are the latest models. They show the event totals based on my best idea of timing.

NOAA NBM: Significant totals for such a conservative model!

GFS: Gaining steam

European: Steady as she goes (very consistent)

Canadian: Full buy-in!

I don’t think I will be able to post later today. It is Susan’s birthday today. I am not sure how to handle it. I will tell her, but I have no idea how she will react. I don’t have anything planned, because I can’t ever plan on anything. Part of me thinks it would be better if I don’t bring it up. But I will. By the way, I will have her page up before Monday.

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Friday Update: Models Double Down On Next Week

On By durangoweatherguy

10/16/26 Friday 4:00 am

I thought there would be a little more weather “forecaster downtime” before the models reached conclusions about the next big event.

But consensus is across the board.

This is NOAA’s NBM. It’s a high-resolution model and typically overly conservative with precipitation.

GFS-Onboard, but it seems to be thinking too hard about it, more than the other models. It fluctuates run-to-run in how it handles terrain, while keeping the big picture. Its terrain struggles are exactly why I always weight the GFS lowest in my snow forecasts. Regardless, it increased its forecast totals.

European: It also increased its forecast totals.

Canadian: It also increased its forecast totals

At this point, I can see that heavier precipitation is forecast to arrive late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Models, however, are seeing pulses of lighter precipitation before the heavy stuff arrives.  Right now, those first pulses look like they’ll arrive on Sunday.

I have a lot of questions, but it’s too early to put too much effort into finding answers that don’t exist yet.

I can’t yet determine how much extra tropical moisture is tied to the low. That will have a major effect on snow levels. It will be the difference between feet of snow at the pass levels or lots of slush.

Overall, I am very encouraged, nearly cautiously optimistic, but I want to see a few more model runs echoing what I have been seeing the last couple of days. If one model is likely to go off the rails, it’s the GFS; that’s just what it does.

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Thursday Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/15/26 Thursday  3:30 am

The day after. The Post-Event Excitement Crush has arrived. Fortunately, I think it will be short-lived. It will give me time to work on some of those website changes I have talked about. Of course, I will be monitoring the situation as well.

Late Weekend

As for the weather, we’ll be in a quiet period until maybe Sunday. We will have to see how it comes together. The model shows moisture from Simon moving up through western New Mexico and into the area.

I think it will end up as light scattered showers, maybe thunderstorms, with very spotty accumulations. In other words, nothing to get excited about, yet.

Next Week

Models are converging on another event mid-to-late week. An extremely potent low-pressure system is expected to track down the West Coast once again.

Originating near Alaska, models show an unusual amount of moisture in those upper latitudes to fuel it. I believe the moisture comes from a recurving Typhoon from Asia; however, I can’t confirm that yet in the modeling.

Recurving Typhoons ending up in Alaska are not uncommon. Fans of the show Deadliest Catch know this. Those that slide down the West Coast often fuel early high-elevation winter storms in our region.

As I said, models differ on timing, but they are showing the potential for a massive event.   Here is a first look at precipitation totals for the event. Remember, we are not looking at these maps as a forecast; we’re looking at the potential this setup could bring if everything comes together.

If the models weren’t agreeing on the framework, I wouldn’t even consider showing the maps this early.

GFS is the most conservative right now. As I said with the last storm, the GFS has a bias toward moving storms too quickly from west to east across the country, which shortens storm duration and reduces precipitation potential.

European

My one concern with the last storm was the Canadian model. It was not on board early on. It didn’t join the other models until the first few drops fell. That is not the case at all this time. This is an early vote of confidence.

Canadian

It’s too early, to know what snow levels will be. But if I saw this in December, this would telegraph the potential for 4 to 6 feet of snow over Wolf Creek Pass.

I will still check in every morning with the latest model updates.

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Wednesday Morning: It Already Got Interesting

On By durangoweatherguy

10/14/26 Wednesday 3:30 am-

My last words yesterday afternoon: “If this continues through tomorrow night (as I said, I don’t think it will stick around that long), it could get interesting.”

I posted my totals on the Precipitation Report Page. I am confident that we will be able to look back at this event as a perfect example of “right for the wrong reason”.

  • The model kept pumping out high totals early on. Saturday’s totals were supposed to be low, and they were.
  • Sunday was supposed to be light during the day and heavy Sunday night, accounting for half of the forecast totals by Monday morning. That did not happen.
  • The other half of the forecast was supposed to fall from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Understatement so far…
  • In the last 18 hours, the system more than made up for Sunday night’s miss. If no other drop falls, most areas have received as much as, or more than, the forecasted event totals.

So the models got the event totals right; it just fell at different times than the models thought it would. This is very encouraging to me for my winter storm forecasts this season!

As I said, I don’t think we will continue to see heavy precipitation through tonight. Higher elevations will likely get most of the remaining heavy precipitation.

The exception for lower and mid elevations would be if the sun comes out and this residual moisture becomes fuel for thunderstorms. Then all bets are off. That could produce spotty but heavy rain.

Going forward, my upcoming Updates are going to be focusing on:

  • The potential for what’s left of Simon’s moisture to enter our forecast area and bring more precipitation Saturday night/Sunday.
  • Trudy’s track. It looks very similar to Polo, Odalys, and Rachel.
  • Another potent closed low that will start moving down California’s Coast next week, potentially bringing us more heavy rain and snow about a week from now.
  • El Niño Update. Hint: It is not “coming” or “developing”. It’s been “here,” and according to NOAA, we have likely reached its peak strength, and it will start reversing in 4 to 6 weeks. If you want a big snow year, that is the best news we could get!

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Tuesday Late Afternoon

On By durangoweatherguy

Tuesday 3 pm

I can’t beleive I didn’t send that early morning update out. But it wouldn’t be the first time. Thanks to those who emailed me.

Today’s Surface Map Shuffle hasn’t happened in quite a while. Human error is alive and well.

The Map Guys at NOAA/WPC get, for lack of a better term, get a draft surface map generated from surface data, various reporting stations, and observations from NWS field offices. Then they analyze and correct it when necessary, which they do too much.

I would hypothesize that as technology has advanced, they are applying old biases that their old “super” computers used to struggle with. Personally, I think they should not mess with the auto-generated maps. I say that based on looking at years of their mistakes/misinterpreations.

Long-time followers remember that this isn’t the first time I have complained about this.

So here is where I am at with this event. I am exhausted. It’s raining at a pretty good clip.

WHOA, big thunder and lightning, cool! Rain rate just went EXTREME  (2.67″ per hour)

Model consensus, for what it is worth, shows that from noon today until the event ends tomorrow night, additional totals will be between 0.80-1.75″ for lower and middle elevations, with over 2.0″ in the higher elevations. I have a feeling we’ll be done way before tomorrow night. Just my opinion, or local weather guy intuition…

A couple of other things that I saw that already made me tired and excited. If you like this event’s template, we may be repeating next week. Before that, we may get to see some Simon moisture this weekend; we will see what’s left of it.

The newest disturbance in the EPAC will strengthen quickly; it will likely become a hurricane tomorrow. Hurricane Trudy. She apparently wants to see everything Rachel did. Preliminary Tropical Cyclone Track models are already indicating that. Oh yeah, there is a good chance of another low dropping down from the NW into Southern California near the time of her landfall.

South of soon-to-be Trudy, another is already developing; if it succeeds, it would be crowned Vance.

Rain is still falling here, pretty heavy. The DWG Command Center is reporting 1.15″ today (4:10 pm). If this continues through tomorrow night (as I said, I don’t think it will stick around that long), it could get interesting.

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Tuesday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

If you are confused by my mid-morning post, you should be. I hit Save Draft instead of Publish with on my  early morning update–sorry been running on 3:40 min sleep today.

 

10/13/26  Tuesday 3:00 am

I couldn’t get my thoughts together well enough to post an update yesterday afternoon. Honestly, it would have been more rambling than content. I am going to get going on that Sus page. It won’t take long; I just have to make a few decisions. I woke up in a panic today realizing it’s her birthday on Saturday; I am not sure how to handle that, anyway.

The evening models initialized better than I thought, but not great. The latest European will be out at 5:45 am. I am expecting it to initialize better now that we finally have some movement to our west!

Long story short, nothing happened yesterday afternoon. As I explained yesterday, the model errors were resulting from the low pressure camped out over  Las Vegas, and until it started moving, the models would be wrong.

This was Monday at 3 pm (no movement).

Monday at 6 pm (no movement)

Monday 9 pm FINALLY

Tuesday 3 am (latest, but very little movement in 6 hours)

I will be watching the tilt of this trough. At the moment, it is a “stand-up cold front”. If it leans forward, it will be positively tilted, which means it is weakening and will move very quickly. If it leans back, it will move slowly and strengthen.

Normally, in a morning post, I’d reference overnight model runs. None of that matters right now, until I can see these models acknowledging the trough movement (initializing). That is when I step away and wait an hour for the overnight European model to be released.

Update 5:45 am

Pretty good initialization from the European. I’m still amazed at the amount of precipitation the models expect to fall, both rain and snow. If this consensus solution verifies, it will be one of the best examples of “right for the wrong reasons” I have ever seen. For now, I am going to keep my eyes off the surface maps, and hope they are accurate. If the NWS issues a Winter Weather Advisory, it is unlikely they will do so in advance. Rather, they will wait and see how bad it gets.

 

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Tuesday Mid Morning: Back to Square One?

On By durangoweatherguy

Tuesday 10 am

The plot thickens…

As the morning models were getting going, this surface map came out. It looks a lot like the one I shared this morning.

3 hours later, this came out…

This is similar to what was shown most of yesterday.  So all the morning models will be impacted by incorrect data. At a minimum, if it is “corrected,” assuming it is wrong. It will be about 1:30 pm before it is released.

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