2/16/26 Monday 11:00 am

11:00 am is the time I started writing this. A quick look at the webcams shows clouds building in over Purgatory and Telluride. Models indicate a few snow showers possible later this afternoon and this evening ahead of the frontal passage tomorrow morning.

First of all, here are the numerous Watches and Warnings:

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

COZ018-019-170815-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.260217T0600Z-260219T1200Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn
Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and
Hesperus
1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting
  as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
  snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
  Strong winds could cause tree damage.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.

...AVALANCHE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY...

*WHAT... Heavy snow and strong winds will result in HIGH (4 of 5)
avalanche danger

*WHERE... The San Juan Mountains and the Park Range

*WHEN... Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions to begin
Wednesday and last through Friday

*IMPACTS... Large and dangerous avalanches will be easy to trigger.
Large avalanches will run naturally.

*PRECAUTION/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel in backcountry avalanche
terrain is not recommended from Wednesday through Friday.
Avoid travel on and under slopes with a slope angle steeper than
about 30 degrees. You can find more detailed information at
colorado.gov/avalanche

 Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Towaoc, Mesa Verde National Park, Durango,
Bayfield, and Ignacio
1129 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Yampa River Basin, Lower Yampa River Basin, Animas
  River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, and Paradox
  Valley/Lower Dolores River.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

San Juan River Basin-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs
1131 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 7000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow may result
  in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds
  could cause tree damage.

 Wolf Creek Pass, and Cumbres Pass
1113 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wind driven snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 8 and 16 inches. Up to 24 inches possible across portions
  of the Eastern San Juan Mountains. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph
  causing blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet and Eastern San
  Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Very strong
  winds could cause power outages and tree damage.

Still nothing for Durango…

As I said this morning, the most dangerous times of the storms are Tuesday morning, during the first frontal passage, and Wednesday afternoon, during the next frontal passage–I will firm up the timing on Wednesday’s fropa (frontal passage) tomorrow.

Good news! The Euro is back on track, showing more snow on Friday. However, there are many discrepancies among the models for Friday’s totals. For now, I will focus on Tuesday through Thursday and address the Friday totals later this week.

Here is my forecast for snowfall through Thursday.

Wolf Creek Pass: 38 to 46 inches

Lizard Head, Coal Bank: 28 to 36 inches

Red Mountain Pass, Telluride: 18 to 24 inches

Mayday, Silver Creek Ranch: 18 to 24 inches

Purgatory: 22 to 28 inches

Rico, Dunton, Silverton: 16 to 20 inches

Ouray: 8 to 12 inches

Ridgway: 2 to 5 inches

Vallecito, Lemon area, Enchanted Forest,  Tween,  Upper Forest Lakes, Texas Creek, Aspen Trails,  Upper Durango Hills: 18 to 24 inches

Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill area: 14 to 18 inches

Upper Falls Creek, Dwest 1&2, Glacier, Edgemont Highlands,  Edgemont Ranch and Meadows, Lower Forest Lakes: 12 to 16 inches

Timberdale area, Rockwood, Bakers Bridge, Pagosa Springs, Aspen,  Shenandoah Highlands: 8 to 12 inches

Timberline, Skyridge, Hermosa, Dalton, Pagosa: 6 to 10 inches

Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Gem Village, Trappers Crossing: 5 to 9 inches

 Bondad, Cortez, Red Mesa, Marvel, Ignacio: 2 to 4 inches.

If you are attempting travel over the passes this week, expect delays.

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2/16/26 Monday 5:30 am

Everything is on track for Monday through Thursday morning. The European model is now showing low impacts on Friday. However, for now, it’s the only model with that solution. It bears watching because it’s an abrupt change, but I can’t take it too seriously yet.

For today, warm and windy is the forecast. But nothing compared to the wind we will get during the frontal passages on Tuesday morning and on Wednesday.

It will be a very abrupt change. Temperatures will drop quickly, and if you are indoors, you will hear the front; the wind will be gusty. Be very careful if you are driving because there will likely be “whiteouts” and snow squall potential is high.

Wednesday looks even more dramatic: colder air will move through and may spark some convection (thunder snow). More whiteout conditions and snow squalls.  Perfect snow environment, with liquid to snow ratios soaring into the high teens in some areas.

It appears NWS has not made up its mind on extending the Winter Storm Warning to the lower and mid-elevation areas. Likely because they think the pavement will still be “warm,” melting the snow as it falls.

I am not so sure that will be the case. I expect them to change their mind at some point, perhaps when they see the frontal passage on the webcams. If not for tomorrow, then definitely before the frontal passage on Wednesday.

If you are new to the area and have not experienced a big storm, this one will be memorable! You don’t want to try to drive in it (if you can’t see, you can’t drive)

Here is the current Winter Storm Warning for the higher elevations.

 

COZ018-019-161815-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.260217T0600Z-260219T1200Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn
Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and
Hesperus
1003 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM
MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting
  as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
  snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
  Strong winds could cause tree damage.

Yes, 70 mph!

As long as my internet stays on, I can post if the power goes out because I have the AC generators fully charged and ready.

Will the City of Durango and La Plata County be ready? That’s the question.

I will be working on my forecasts today; they will be out later this afternoon. I may hold off on the Friday system until either the European figures out what it is doing or the other models move toward the European solution.

Can you tell I am excited?

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2/15/26 Sunday Noon

I have been asked why I concentrate on only 3 weather models. Well, I usually only share 2 or 3. But I look at nearly every one of them.

It takes a while to crop them down and label locations. So, in the interest of time, here are some of the models I look at besides the  “Big Three”.

The other benefit to not cropping these down is that if you look at the bottom right of the map you will see MAX with a number next to it. That is the maximum output amount. In this case, it says 50.9. Referring to 50.9 inches, which just happens to refer to that little pink dot near Wolf Creek.

NBM (National Blend Of Models) hi res.

NBM v5 (experimental)

Canadian GDPS(Experimental)

UK Met- Apparently, they don’t worry too much about snow in the UK because there is no snow output parameter. This is in liquid equivalent (inches)

ICON (German) again in liquid, but for a different reason–it handles snow horribly.

Big Three

European

GFS

Canadian

You can’t help but notice that they all share a similar story, which makes it a pretty high-confidence event.

Adding to the confidence is Probabilistic Guidance (say that 5 times fast), which shows a 75% chance of 1 to 2+ feet of snow in the mountains. They arrive at that number by running numerous simulations. That is a very high number. I don’t recall the last time I saw such a high number for that much snow!

 

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2/15/26 Sunday 6:30 am

I slept in, not on purpose; it just happened.

The models remain very consistent run to run. Not only are the models consistent with each other, but they are also consistent with themselves. In other words, they keep showing the same thing every run–A lot of snow!

Although there appear to be three distinct events that will be difficult to time, this will likely make travel planning largely impossible. Each system reinforces the previous one, leaving little time for CDOT to catch up. For safety, they will likely have to close passes for cleanup.

“Pre-Storm” snow will likely begin in the mountains at some time on Monday. By Tuesday morning, the models are showing us in the thick of it, just in time for the morning commute. Do I think schools will have to close this week? It would not surprise me!

Late Tuesday, the snow may taper off in the lower elevations, but I can’t see any reason why it would stop before Thursday in the mountains. It will just be lighter between the heavier periods.

The second shot is currently scheduled to arrive on Wednesday afternoon, lasting through the evening. At that point, models show more of a distinct lull on Thursday before another system loads up over the Sierra. For the week, areas from Tahoe down to Mammoth will accumulate totals up to 100 inches!

While we won’t see that much, the model totals are still impressive for the week.

Here are the latest snow totals (based on 10-to-1 ratios, so they could be 20-30% higher above 9,000 feet).

European

GFS

The Canadian is going crazy, literally off the scale.

I say off the scale because it only goes to 48 inches. I reviewed the liquid precip maps and confirmed the model is predicting 69.6 inches. Surprisingly, the Canadian shows the Friday storm missing us, so these totals are from Tuesday to Thursday only. The Canadian is usually pretty accurate for higher elevations. We’ll see.

That is all for now. I will post today’s morning model runs when they all generate

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2/14/26 Saturday 5:30 am

Everybody loves an upside surprise! In this case, the models underforecasted the amount of snow that fell leading up to the storm.

Next week, beginning late Monday night/early Tuesday, the first in a series of systems will arrive. All of them appear potent and disruptive to travel, affecting us most of the week.

I have higher confidence in this event than I did with the last setup. I will break it down in better detail tomorrow.

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2/13/26 Thursday 5 am

Over the last 2 1/2 hours, I have been going through models and waiting for updates. It always seems to be these smaller events that the models struggle the most with.

A quick couple of inches fell at Purgatory overnight. I was watching on webcams and saw a couple of moderate to heavy bands had developed in weak SW flow.

The point is, the models missed that. This means the overnight model runs did not initialize correctly. In other words the assumptions they are making (forecasts) are already potentially flawed.

The models show light on-and-off snow showers this morning, with the heaviest snow between 10 am and 2 pm along 550. For 160, assuming it comes together, the snow would be on the increase later in the day into the evening.

Models how 3 to 5 additional inches of snow for the Red Mountain-Telluride areas. They must be expecting the flow to shift to NW which enhances precipitation in those areas. In areas around Purgatory up to Molas lesser amounts are expected. Samething with Wolf Creek.

I am still a bit skeptical of how this is all going to wrap up today. That said, it does not take long for a couple of inches to fall at elevation.

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Thursday 2/12/26 3 am

The most surprising thing I saw this morning is that the models have “stuck with their plan” for a very long time. This gives me greater confidence in what to expect in the next 7 to 10 days (pattern change).

For today, snow showers may redevelop with no clear catalyst (sometimes it just snows). Tomorrow, another piece of energy will pass to our south, spinning up some moisture, leading to more snow in the mountains.  The models currently indicate accumulating snow in the mountains. There may be some travel impacts for 550 passes as well as Lizard Head. Models indicate a 4- to 8-inch solution from Purgatory to Red Mountain and Telluride.

While the models have done well on the timing of these systems, the details are sticky. These systems that pass to the south, like this one, tend to move through faster and leave less snow than predicted.

When it departs, this system will blossom and bring severe weather to the southern plains and coastal areas. Many times, the low likes to jump over us (for lack of a better explanation) and get to where the action is. (Gulf Moisture). This results in a “was that it?” scenario.

We welcome any moisture, and I hope the models are correct with their forecast. But I am still slightly skeptical that it all comes together as predicted. I will have to see more model runs and will post again before the models say the meaningful snow will begin tomorrow morning.

By the weekend, it will be gone, and drier weather will return until early next week. Next week is what I have been watching for nearly 2 weeks. I have referenced the 17th many times.

Here are the maps in motion, from Monday evening (2/16) through Sunday morning. This is what happens when the ridge finally gets crushed by Arctic air (high pressure) retrograding west across southern Canada.

This is certainly the main event I will be tracking over the coming days.

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2/10/26 Tuesday 4 am

I think you all are figuring out that if I don’t post, there is a reason. I am passionate about the weather, and it is a blessing to have an audience to share my thoughts with.

As I get older, I become more convinced that life has a way of helping you redefine your priorities, and there is typically a reason for it. Perhaps it’s just my way of dealing with the”why” as in “why is this happening”?

Enough said.

Missing a couple of days of model runs is like missing an entire season of your favorite show. It takes a while to get back up to speed on what has happened, is happening, and what may happen.

In my previous posts, I discussed a couple of dates that would signal a pattern change.  They were February 11th and February 17th. Surprisingly, that has not changed. Since February 11th is tomorrow, I wanted to let you know that my thoughts have not changed.

I talked about conditions that favor low pressure would be more conducive to storm development in the western US. Tomorrow (Feb 11), low pressure will come onshore in Central California. This may bring some snow to areas mainly north of Purgatory, favoring the Northern San Juans. This is not a big storm; it is sketchy at best.

Most of the storm’s energy in Colorado will be in the Central and Northern Mountains. But it will linger for a couple of days; there may be a surprise here or there, but generally speaking, it is not a big deal for us.

The other date I mentioned is February 17th. This date was always more important because we should see the persistent ridge we have endured collapse while a big storm comes onshore in California again. These conditions may persist for 4 to 6 days. Beyond that, models get messy and unreliable.

I will continue to monitor and post as I can.

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2/7/25 Saturday 4 am

Just to finish off the last chapter, I got my vehicle back–it was the Body Control Module. I believe that is the main computer for the vehicle. It needed updates. They also changed the oil, rotated the tires, and detailed the whole thing. Then, they delivered it to me. Again, Moreheart Murphy went above and beyond, so if you are in the market for a new vehicle, start there!

Don’t worry, I am not going to do this very often. The fact is, rarely leave the house these days, so I don’t experience exceptional customer service very often because I don’t go anywhere!

Weather

When I last updated, we were discussing the increasing likelihood of low pressure taking over in the west, which would increase the chances of storm development.

The two dates we discussed run from 2/11 or 2/12 (Wednesday/Thursday) through Friday.

Then, there is a chance that the Polar Vortex could influence our weather and perhaps lead to a larger storm a few days later, beginning on 2/17.

Both the European and GFS models still show the favorable conditions, the PV displaced over western Canada, and a big storm around the 17th. That is the good news.

What we don’t know is IF any storms will track our way. Between the two dates, the 17th is more likely to come together than next week. I will continue to monitor the situation. We should have more details regarding 2/17 by midweek.

FDM (full disclosure moment): I tried to write the next paragraph, about the long-range outlook, but couldn’t explain it properly. Here was the AI assist.

Right now, the long-range forecasts for later this month are all over the place. Different weather models are giving us completely opposite predictions, and even within a single model, the data doesn’t make logical sense—like seeing atmospheric patterns that would usually cause one thing, while the ground conditions show another. In short, it’s all ‘weather jibberish’ for now, and we’ll need to wait for the data to settle before we can make a reliable call.

I coined the term weather jibberish. I spent 30 minutes on it before surrendering to AI. It looks so simple now. Oh well. Hopefully, I will get recharged today and back to myself tomorrow. I will try to post again then.

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2/5/26 Thursday 3:30 am

Thanks for all of the “check-ins”. Here is the latest “Not the weather” followed by the “Weather Stuff”

My vehicle was picked up yesterday morning and taken to Moreheart Murphy. Their customer service and follow-up have been amazing. There is no doubt that if I ever needed to buy another vehicle, I would go there.

Speaking of “kudos” Wayne’s Towing and Transport was great. I have never had an experience like that. He was beyond nice, and I learned a lot. He took the extra time to show me things, like how to unlock “Park” in a vehicle with a dead battery so you can push it out of the garage. Anyway, I highly recommend them/him.

BTW, this is for information only, not an advertisement, I have not been incentivised in any way. I like to recognize people and businesses who provide excellent services, since we are a small community.

Lastly, I bought a trickle charger/battery maintainer for when they return my vehicle, hopefully, by Friday. Now if I could find a trickle charger/maintainer for me…

Weather Stuff

In a nutshell, it looks like the pattern will shift next week, around Wednesday/Thursday. GFS and European agree on this. They also agree on a bigger shift around the 17th.

The GFS is interesting, showing some of that Arctic air from the displaced Polar Vortex may reach us around the 17th. We’ll see.

If you are a TV weather watcher, you know that they are cheering on warmer temps for the Midwest. If you have friends and family there, let them know that they are not done with winter, and the warm-up will be relatively short-lived! By April, folks in the east are going to be really sick of winter.

I am going to put the maps in motion, but first, here is a base map of the US for Sunday morning. I do this because we old people were taught Geography and map reading. Many of my younger followers are “post Google/post GPS.” Based on the questions I get, I want to make sure everyone knows what’s going on, and where it is going on.

Sunday Morning

Now I will put the maps in motion beginning Sunday, this is the GFS.

BTW, the top-right of the map shows the day, date, and time.

If you noticed this map ends up with a ridge back over us, it’s too early to worry about that.

I will be actively tracking this, thanks for following!

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