7/26/26 Sunday 12:30 pm

Before I start, I read something very interesting that NOAA is now addressing regarding El Niño forecasting. Could this be the first step at mitigating the expectations for the “Super” El Niño everyone was so hyped up about?

Read it if you enjoy weather geekdom; it’s short.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/news-and-media/highlights/climate-models-get-key-feature-el-nino-wrong-undermining-forecast-accuracy

On to the good stuff…

It appears that our moisture transport will weaken as high pressure moves slightly. This will be gradual and not permanent. Although it will weaken, it won’t shut down. Precipitable Water Value (PWAT) will still range from seasonally average to slightly above.  This could start as soon as Thursday or Friday and last 4to 7 days, before the flow shifts and anomalously high PWATs return over the area.

Here are a couple of visual aids. The first shows the  PWAT decreasing and then returning. These go fast; don’t try to follow the dates, just the changes.  is better to demonstrate the changes. White is seasonally average, greens and blues are above average, tan and brown are below seasonal norms. The number values represent the percentage of average.

The way I was able to time the start of the pattern change a few weeks ago was by using the long-range European Extended models, referred to as “the weeklies” by people in the business.

What you see below is the long-term precipitation forecast through September 9th. The numbers represent the amount of precipitation above average seasonal amounts. That 2.74 you see in our area is not the forecast total. The number is how many inches above average is forecasted to fall. I know I said the same thing twice in two different ways, but I wanted to make sure everyone understood.

Tomorrow, my plan is to get up early, so I can work without interruptions and get Monday’s update out early.

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7/25/26 Saturday 11:30 am

What would you think if I told you that the beautiful radar image I posted this morning was from the La Plata County Radar app? I know, I know.

There is a catch, and it is a big one. When you’re in the app, click/touch where it says “La Plata Radar”. A page pops up where you can switch to  “National Radar”. When you hit the go back arrow on the top left, that beautiful imaging will come up.

You can also click settings and switch to satellite view. Hmmm. Wasn’t our LPC radar supposed to be better, “Game Changer,” if I remember correctly? It’s the same feed Wunderground uses, which is a Grand Junction/Denver/ ABQ blend. The difference between this one and Wunderground is imaging and resolution.

Which begs the question: is the LPC Radar the equivalent of the piece of exercise equipment that we had to have, but now has clothes hanging from it?

Mystery solved!

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07/25/26 Saturday 5 am

Yesterday morning, I wrote the following:

“Showers will mostly favor higher terrain. Could we get a rogue cell that wreaks havoc like the one yesterday that showed up near Trimble? Sure we could. But organized shower activity looks unlikely according to the models I am looking at.”

Then yesterday afternoon:

“It is a little too early yet today to say whether storms will develop. Yesterday, and the last few days, we have seen late development. I still anticipate some spotty, scattered showers today. I keep an eye on the radar, but it often goes from nothing to something. I get the lightning notification, then look back at the radar, and there they are.”

A little later, I got a lightning detection notification on my phone that said 2-4 miles. Then this happened

Speaking of rogue cells showing up out of nowhere, here is what one of those isolated cells looks like:

This screenshot was from a friend of mine who lives in Durango West I. I am using his better than mine. I want to download this app, it seems to provide decent detail. Sean, text me the name of this app so I can download it!

The red portion literally ended up right over my house (that indicator is not my house). At its peak, rain intensity hit 3.16 inches per hour.  It started losing intensity pretty quickly, but  I still got 1.20 inches.

This cell fired in the Southern La Platas, then drifted SE right over us. Emphasizing my point from yesterday, this is what makes these storms so difficult to forecast!

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7/24/26 Friday Noon

It is a little too early yet today to say whether storms will develop. Yesterday, and the last few days, we have seen late development. I still anticipate some spotty scattered showers today. I keep an eye on the radar, but it often goes from nothing to something. I get the lightning notification, then look back at the radar, and there they are.

As I mentioned the other day, I am already looking forward to winter. Snow forecast posts take longer to prepare. But because you are tracking an existing storm for days before it arrives, it gives the models a chance to converge a couple of days before the event.

Monsoonal/summer showers develop out of nowhere; even if the high pressure and surface(thermal) lows are in ideal locations, you still have to worry about flow direction and steering winds. Throw in our unique terrain, and there is a better chance the models will get it wrong than correct.

Saturday and Sunday both look like there will be better chances of development than what we have seen today (so far anyway). I will post in the morning, hopefully earlier than I did today; hopefully there will be better model agreement than what I am seeing today!

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7/24/26 Friday 5 am

Today looks very similar to yesterday. Showers will mostly favor higher terrain. Could we get a rogue cell that wreaks havoc like the one yesterday that showed up near Trimble? Sure we could. But organized shower activity looks unlikely according to the models I am looking at.

Here are yesterday’s totals, in inches, ending at midnight

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7/23/26 Thursday 5:30 am

If we have learned (or at least remembered) one thing lately, it is that the models are nearly worthless when it comes to forecasting rainfall amounts for any given location.

If you are new, don’t worry; they are much more reliable in the winter. I am really looking forward to the winter!

For today, models do show lighter, more scattered coverage for thunderstorms- since models have been wrong, we will probably get bullseye amounts over the entire forecast area. I feel like it is going to be an all-or-nothing day. But I would note that this morning we have the highest dewpoint since this pattern change started!

Yesterday, I explained that the totals I am posting only go until midnight. Any overnight totals will be posted with the new daytime totals the next day. As expected, many locations had already exceeded the minimum threshold (0.20) overnight, so I would have a lot of totals to share. That was an understatement!

Yesterday’s Totals In Inches

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Wednesday 11:00 am

The odd morning thunderstorm was a remnant of last night’s storms. It was in New Mexico and got caught up in SE flow, retrograding over the forecast area. It looks like it’s getting close to Silverton and Telluride at the moment.

Update 11:30 am. The NWS just issued a flood watch for most of Western Colorado, including our entire forecast area. I was wrong when I said I did not see us included this morning. The original statement came out at 1:20 am. Here is the latest.

1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...All of eastern Utah and western Colorado including several
  recent burn scars.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks,
  streams, slot canyons, slick rock areas, recent burn scars, and
  other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in
  poor drainage and urban areas.

Not very flashy, are they?

I am a little disappointed we did not get a couple of hours of sunshine. We could still. All it means is a delayed onset of the more active showers.

Model-simulated radar shows some big storms rolling through after 5 pm through the evening and overnight. We will see; keep in mind that does not mean it won’t rain before then, so be prepared!

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7/22/26 Wednesday 5:30 am

Wow! Cortez!

The totals listed below are yesterday’s (before midnight) totals, above the 0.20″ minimum threshold. Many areas have already exceeded the threshold for today (since midnight), and will be on the list tomorrow.

Yesterday’s Totals Before Midnight

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7/21/26 Tuesday 4 am

Yesterday I said that overall storm chances would be much lower on Monday. With the exception of areas south of Durango along 550 South, with a couple of bullseyes along the Colorado/New Mexico border.

Farmington did get 0.29″-0.40″ yesterday

That is about it.

Yesterday I also said that storm chances would increase on Tuesday through at least Thursday.

This is what we want to see this time of year. Here is the current radar.

Right where you see that yellow area, which is indicating a strong thunderstorm cell, they have had 1.60″ in two and a half hours.

Both the GFS and European’s latest model run, initialized well to the current radar. Both have very different solutions for the forecast. The European model has a typical late afternoon start, mostly low totals, and features heavier coverage across the forecast area, definitely favoring western areas for the heaviest total, extending later into the evening.

The GFS is predicting very high totals painted across the entire forecast area. It looks believable enough because its model bias tends to forget about the lower elevations, piling it up in the mountains. The GFS also shows showers extending overnight, with occasional short breaks before it cranks things up again late Wednesday morning.

This will be a good test for the GFS and some of the other US models under its umbrella. I have a hunch things are going to get a slower start today. If it doesn’t start up at 2 or 4 pm, be patient; we will judge this surge tomorrow morning.

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