9/18/26 Thursday 1 pm

Checking out the atmospheric vitals,  the satellite shows most of the mid-level water vapor has moved east of our area. At the surface, residual moisture remains; dew points haven’t budged and are still in the mid-50s.

The European model is enthusiastic about a cold front passing through the area early tomorrow morning, triggering light to moderate precipitation.

The cold front is attached to a huge longwave trough. It currently extends from Labrador to California. The cold front and associated double-barrel lows extend from NW Utah back into the eastern California/Nevada stateline. Shortwave troughs lie behind and ahead of it.

Long story short, the Euro thinks it will track across our area and create enough instability to trigger showers just before the frontal passage.

It’s plausible enough to mention. Especially with residual moisture in place. In its wake, we should see that moisture get scoured out of the area.

Timing is already tricky; right now, the Euro favors the front approaching the area after midnight and leaving the forecast area by 8 am Saturday. It could be faster or slower; it could also flip from being a positively tilted trough to a negatively tilted trough, in which case it would slow and strengthen.

I know I was supposed to make the long story short…

For Saturday, if everything goes as the model says, we may wake to some showers wrapping up. In the afternoon, showers may redevelop, favoring higher-elevation areas. Sunday looks drier. I am not quite ready to talk about next week yet. Maybe tomorrow.

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15 or 20 minutes after I sent the update out saying the models were showing much lower totals than yesterday, this harmless-looking cell showed up over my house.

It dropped 0.56″ in 28 minutes.  Expect the unexpected today; very little needs to happen to produce an isolated storm in this saturated environment!

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9/18/26 Friday 3:30 am

Poor initialization from the evening models. The GFS was closest; the midnight run is just coming online and is much drier than the European. The updated European won’t be out for about 90 minutes.

Yesterday, the central portions of the forecast area were the big winners.  Somewhere east of Mancos was the dividing line between heavy and light precipitation.

Yesterday, the model’s error was having the main moisture transport too far west. Looking at yesterday’s accumulations around Cortez and Mancos, it’s clear they were on the less productive side of the flow.

However, the overwhelming amount of precipitation yesterday has kept the atmosphere completely saturated. Dew points across the forecast area are 53-55 degrees, which is similar to the air temperature (basically 99% humidity).

Here is the recent satellite shot.

The yellow tones you see indicate drier air. The green is a very moist flow.

Here is the satellite in motion between 12:30 am and 4:20 am

You can see that moisture in New Mexico rotating back into our forecast area. You can also see the yellow (dry air) tracking east, approaching our area. Dry and saturated air masses can be convective where they clash. So I will be keeping an eye on that today.

5:45 am

The Euro is finally out; while it initialized better than the prior run, it differs from the GFS, likely due to bias. GFS shows the heaviest rain today over far eastern La Plata County. The Euro shows it directly over La Plata County.

Both models show much lower totals than we have seen lately. As I said the last couple of days, it is hard to believe the residual moisture (54-degree dew points and 175% PWAT) won’t play a role in shower development. Especially if we see the sun out for a little while late morning. For those wanting a dry weekend, it is looking more and more likely. I will follow up on that this afternoon.

Lastly, from the Wishcast chronicles:

I noticed this on the GFS at the end of the month. I have written about a high probability of a recurving Pacific Tropical Storm due to above-average development so far in the region.  As an added bonus, this shows a recurve with a powerful cold front on track to clash.

The heaviest rain (historic flooding) our area has ever had is from recurving Tropical Storms.  I don’t hope for flooding, but any confirmation that October through December will be colder and wetter than average, as the longer-term models have continually indicated, is encouraging.

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9/17/26 Thursday 1:30 pm

This morning I wrote this: “Both models show light, steady rain, with intermittent, moderate to occasionally heavy rain continuing today and tonight. The models already start to diverge in 18 hours, with the GFS showing rain continuing for the next 36-48 hours. The Euro is similar, but it shows a break overnight; then it brings another wave through tomorrow morning”

In the latest model runs, the GFS has flipped over to the Euro’s take of the break into the overnight, then another wave coming through before morning

Although activity is still happening in the northern portions of the forecast, the central portions have slowed down a bit.  But not before dropping 1 to 2″ in the last 12 hours, including 1.77″ here at the DWG Command Center.

Tonight, on-and-off light showers should continue; after midnight, models show deeper moisture returning, leading to a soggy morning. How long those showers stick around is debated between the models, but they all show a noticeable tick down in the PWAT values (if you can call 175% of average a tick down) by Friday late afternoon/evening.

I still think it will be difficult to have no showers in the forecast for Saturday. GFS is showing better chances than the European model; at the moment, I am planning on it- with a better chance of convection rather than this beautiful stratiform we have been seeing.

Sunday looks dry, but we could still have residual moisture. By the time everything wraps up on Saturday, many locations will have had 4-5″ over the last several days–wet likes to stay wet. As you know.

Don’t get me started on next week; models are all over the place. I am also seeing snow levels approach 11,000 feet several times next week; we’ll see.

I will update everyone in the morning.

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9/17/26 Thursday 4 am

Models struggled in the evening runs (again).  Overnight, the GFS corrected somewhat. I am still waiting for the latest European overnight run; the evening run is worthless.

I should explain this further. Most weather models have four run times per day. 12z, 18z, 00z, and 06z (if you are unfamiliar with Z time, that is 6 am, noon, 6 pm, and 12 am). That is for our time zone; you add or subtract if you are not in our time zone.

Historically, I have found the 12z and 00z runs to be more accurate. That wasn’t the case last night, when both models struggled. It is usually a timing issue due to model lag times.

By model lag time, I mean what happens in the real weather while the model generates its forecasts. So if the Euro starts processing data at midnight and there is a slight unexpected change in the atmosphere in Arizona 30 minutes later, the whole forecast for our area could end up completely wrong (bad data in, bad data out).

For the GFS (US bellwether model), the midnight run is released/available between 3:30 am and 5:15 am. The European model is higher resolution (longer compute times) and is released/available between 5:15 am and 6:15 am.

Both the European and GFS have AI versions with compute times less than half of the base models. I am not a fan of AI models (yet) because they use early AI technology that is very old (in the AI world). 30 minutes is a ridiculously long compute time for AI. If these were constantly upgraded, compute time would be instantaneous.  I haven’t dug into the Google weather models yet, but I’ve heard good things.

I may revisit all of these topics from time to time, but it seemed appropriate to talk about them while waiting for the European.

5:45 am…

The Euro is out, and it initialized a little better than the last run. The precipitation forecasts from midnight to 6 am are just slightly higher than what has actually occurred.

Both models show light, steady rain, with intermittent, moderate to occasionally heavy rain continuing today and tonight. The models already start to diverge in 18 hours, with the GFS showing rain continuing for the next 36-48 hours. The Euro is similar, but it shows a break overnight; then it brings another wave through tomorrow morning.

I still don’t have a great handle on the weekend, but if we end up with as much rain as forecast, I think it is overoptimistic to expect immediate drying. At least for Saturday.

I will post again after the morning models generate.

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9/16/26 Wednesday 1:30 pm

The models initialized well and delayed the onset of showers due to the cloud cover that has been in place most of the day. Models increased PWAT forecasts, now showing portions of La Plata County hitting 345% of average tomorrow morning. Might be a record; I have never seen it before.

With the delay, they have also extended showers into Friday, which would likely mean residual moisture will stick around to fuel storms on Saturday. Sunday still looks pretty calm. We’ll see.

Radar looks, well, interesting, right now. Light showers appear to be retrograding (east-to-west) into the SE portion of the forecast area (eastern La Plata and Archuleta Counties).

Now we just need to be patient and let it come together. I will be up earlier tomorrow so I can get the update out right away.

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9/16/26 Wednesday 5 am

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

COZ018-019-021>023-162100-
/O.CON.KGJT.FA.A.0007.260916T1800Z-260918T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Four
Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-San Juan River
Basin-
Including the cities of Telluride, Mountain Village, Ouray, Lake
City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico, Cortez, Mancos,
Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, and Ignacio
304 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River,
  Northwest San Juan Mountains, San Juan River Basin and Southwest
  San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...From noon MDT today through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  This also includes the Gold Mountain, Elk and Ferris burn scars as
  well as areas of steep, susceptible terrain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Recent heavy rainfall in southwest Colorado has led to already
    saturated ground. In addition, multiple rounds of showers and
    thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
    evening producing periods of heavy rainfall and potential flash
    flooding.

This is what we could call a “blanket flood watch”. This is as widespread as you can get for our forecast area.

My only concern right now is poor model initialization. This means that when I look at what the models are forecasting for now, it is already wrong. Even with the latest GFS and Euro, which was generated within the hour. Same with the surface maps; the two versions I look at are completely different based on their latest obs, off by 500-1000 miles. That being said, we are under deep moisture, with dewpoints within a degree of current temperatures and current PWATs exceeding 200% of average.

Keep an eye on the cloud deck; if we get a few peaks of sun, it won’t take a lot to get things going, with residual moisture and forecasted PWATs continuing between 200-250% of average. The deeper moisture plume arrives later today and should overwhelm the atmosphere as those PWATs reach 300% of average.

So today, isolated showers should give way to scattered showers later today, followed by the potential for widespread heavy showers tonight. Assuming the models are correct.

As I said, if the cloud deck breaks open long enough to let the sun do its job, it will trigger thunderstorms earlier. The models are showing that happening just before noon; we’ll see.

If daytime heating isn’t enough to trigger convection, we will likely have to wait until that reinforcing moisture comes in later today/tonight.

That is the best I can do with the meteorological cards I was dealt this morning. My next hands will be dealt just before noon, and I will jump back on to see if we can narrow somethings down, or look at a different forecast.

If “the event” doesn’t come together, it would be the single worst model bust I’ve seen in 25 years. Stay tuned!

 

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9/15/26 Tuesday 5:30 am

Two hours later, I still have graupel/hail piles in my yard; it looked like snow on the ground. Here was the radar as it came overhead:

1.49″ in 47 minutes. Nearly an inch within the first 15 minutes. The air temperature dropped 6 degrees, based on how much graupel fell. The graupel likely distorted the actual rain total; it was probably higher.

People, including me, tend to have short-term memory when it comes to storms. But I am guessing this is in the top 5 since I have lived here.

Early yesterday morning, when I posted, I did not realize we had gotten 0.40″ after midnight. So, so far so good.

More is on the way! Models show showers redeveloping later today, tonight, overnight, Wednesday day, Wednesday afternoon, evening, night, Thursday morning, Thursday day, afternoon-evening, overnight, and likely Friday. A wet week indeed!

Right now, it looks like isolated light showers for the weekend.  A few days ago, it looked like Telluride Brews and Blues would be very cold and wet. Currently, the models don’t look nearly as bad as they did. No promises yet; I will keep everyone updated.

Models aren’t great at forecasting rain totals, but I had to check. They are showing an additional 2-4 inches of rain by Friday night.

I am swamped with emails; my goal is to get through them in the next couple of days.  Yesterday was much better overall, but things are definitely changing. I should still be able to post daily.

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9/14/26 Monday 2:30 am

I see an unimpressive line of showers on the radar setting up to our west; hoping this isn’t a repeat of last Monday.

I woke up a couple of hours ago to the spousal caregiver’s nightmare, realizing Sus was not in bed. For the last couple of months, I have made a routine of locking all the doors to the outside, just in case. She no longer has the dexterity to unlock them. I think it was about 18 months ago; I used to still be able to leave her for an hour to run down to the store. Now, I worry when I leave her alone anytime I go to the bathroom.

I found her sitting on the living room floor, wide awake, with both cats in front of her staring at her. Unresponsive at first to anything I said to her. Then she said nearly fluently, “I’m thirsty.” Got her to the couch and helped her drink a glass of water. She really did not know what was going on, or that anything was particularly unusual about what was happening.

Typically, she can’t walk at all without my assistance, so I am not sure how she got there. I also have to lift her in and out of bed these days.

So I got her to bed and gave her the pill she usually takes before bed (seroquel generic). Tried lying down until I knew she was asleep. Tears rolling down my face as I questioned every decision I have ever made in my life, wondering what in the hell I did wrong for this to happen to her and to our life.

I can’t explain why I feel responsible; I just do. Then I feel guilty because I know people go through worse, and then remind myself I have to be strong because the worst is yet to come.

So as I sit here, I have no idea if she is going to wake up better or worse. I know it’s going to throw off our schedule; it may lead to a new schedule. It’s going to throw me off my weather schedule for at least a day. I will post when I can.

Sorry to unload.

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9/13/26 Sunday Noon

The models are slowing down slightly the arrival of the heavier rain until closer to the 4 to 6 am timeframe tomorrow morning.

The models still favor the west for the heaviest showers. As I said, the models are horrible at that, so I don’t put as much stock in that solution. Dew points continue to tick up now, right around 50 in most locations.

Models diverge at hour 30 (6 pm Monday). GFS wants to bring another surge of moisture, associated with yet another trough and low-pressure system, Monday night into Tuesday. European waits a little longer.

Long-time followers may remember the GFS and European have opposite biases with fronts. GFS tries to bring them in and out too fast, and the Euro tries to hold them back to our west for too long.

Overall, I concur with my earlier assessment that it is going to be a wet week, which means it will be cooler! At least through Thursday. It could be a busy week!

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