Monday Afternoon

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

7/27/26 Monday 12:30 pm

The new European looks more like yesterday’s model run. If this model run is correct, this will reduce our afternoon storm chances. The peak of the moisture flow blockage, as the model sees it, begins on Friday 7/31 and lasts through the middle of the following week.

I am not sure that I completely believe it, not because I want the rain, but because I never trust the models when they flip back and forth. So far today, very few storms have started firing this afternoon. But dewpoints have not dropped; if you have a weather station, that is something you can track. Check it in the morning after sunrise, then again in the afternoon around 3 pm. What you’re watching for is a drop on both readings below 47, which would indicate our residual moisture is drying up and our moisture is at least partially blocked. I don’t need dewpoint reports because I will be checking all of the stations as well.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings. I’ll be back in the morning.

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Monday Morning Update- Model Flip-Flop

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/27/26 Monday 4:30 am
I was actively watching the radar yesterday. There was an impressive cell that barely missed my neighborhood.  But it unloaded in Rafter J/King Mtn. Highly localized. The Edgemont area got hammered yesterday, best totals I have seen there in quite some time!
That seems to be the narrative lately. One area gets hit, while a neighboring area gets missed. I get a lot of emails from people who say things like, “I live very close to the location that you said got an inch, but I got less than half of that”.
Storms have to start and stop somewhere. If you are a weather nerd, I am sure you have seen the ultimate in highly localized storms; some would say that they are the king of storms: tornadoes. Almost everyone has seen videos of tornadoes that completely destroy one farmhouse, and miss the one right next to it.
Whenever I see a huge shift in modeling in less than 24 hours, I have to question whether or not it is an anomaly. I usually wait at least one more model run to get a handle on what changed, and how it will affect us.
The last two runs from the European show a dramatic decrease in precipitation chances today. With storms only forming over the highest terrain. The other models have also shifted. I looked at the surface maps; they do look like high and low pressure have shifted further north, likely keeping the circulation that draws in the moisture north of us.
After all of the time I spent yesterday researching the potential “gradual” and “temporary” change to drier conditions. The models changed their mind overnight. So, back to the drawing board.
Uncertainty is not unusual with these afternoon thunderstorms. But if I had to make a call solely on this morning’s model data for this afternoon, I would say most mid-elevation and low-elevation areas have a very low chance of storms this afternoon.
The hard data across the area, high dewpoints, and significant residual moisture would tell me thunderstorm chances are higher than what the models are portraying.
I will post again after the morning models generate.
Here are yesterday’s totals in inches for areas that exceeded the 0.20-inch threshold.
West
Rd23.75 0.32
Kline 0.30
Trappers-Thunderbird 0.48
Rafter J
S Elk Run 0.39
Mountain Top Rd 0.37
CastleRdg Dr 0.81 -I watched this on radar!
Far View Rd 0.55
South
S Skylane 0.54
Walker Ln 0.22
Rainbow Rd(2)   0.41
East
Pagosa Area
Cactus Dr .54
Backcountry Dr 0.58
Scenic Ave 0.21
Glen Eaton  0.39
Wilderness Dr 0.38
W. Log Hill Rd 0.78
Harmon Ave 1.11
Central
West Bayfield 0.83
Garnet Wy 0.58
Hawks Meadow Dr  0.28
Vallecito CR 501 at East Creek 0.95
Elk Meadow Rd 0.31
Durango
Crestview Dr 0.25
Junction 0.23
Edgemont*
The Iron King Rd 1.28
Terra Blue Way 1.55
Edgemont Meadows 2.01
Calico Trail 1.19
Rd 250 0.32
Rd 250 0.37
Hermosa
550 RR MP463 0.25
Burnett Haul Rd 0.34
Rd 250 North End 0.22
White Water Dr 0.50
North
Columbine Rd 0.45
Ouray
State Hwy 361 0.40
Eagle Ct 0.59
My next post will be between noon and 3 pm.

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Sunday Short and Long Term Outlook

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

7/26/26 Sunday 12:30 pm

Before I start, I read something very interesting that NOAA is now addressing regarding El Niño forecasting. Could this be the first step at mitigating the expectations for the “Super” El Niño everyone was so hyped up about?

Read it if you enjoy weather geekdom; it’s short.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/news-and-media/highlights/climate-models-get-key-feature-el-nino-wrong-undermining-forecast-accuracy

 

On to the good stuff…

It appears that our moisture transport will weaken as high pressure moves slightly. This will be gradual and not permanent. Although it will weaken, it won’t shut down. Precipitable Water Value (PWAT) will still range from seasonally average to slightly above.  This could start as soon as Thursday or Friday and last 4to 7 days, before the flow shifts and anomalously high PWATs return over the area.

Here are a couple of visual aids. The first shows the  PWAT decreasing and then returning. These go fast; don’t try to follow the dates, just the changes.  is better to demonstrate the changes. White is seasonally average, greens and blues are above average, tan and brown are below seasonal norms. The number values represent the percentage of average.

The way I was able to time the start of the pattern change a few weeks ago was by using the long-range European Extended models, referred to as “the weeklies” by people in the business.

What you see below is the long-term precipitation forecast through September 9th. The numbers represent the amount of precipitation above average seasonal amounts. That 2.74 you see in our area is not the forecast total. The number is how many inches above average is forecasted to fall. I know I said the same thing twice in two different ways, but I wanted to make sure everyone understood.

Tomorrow, my plan is to get up early, so I can work without interruptions and get Monday’s update out early.

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Sunday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/26/26 Sunday 6:30 am
Yesterday afternoon brought a lot of fanfare, with very little follow-through. Lots of thunder and lightning but not a lot of rain. Saturday morning, in my post, I said that I was seeing lower dewpoints around the area; did that figure in?
Most of the forecast area is currently under cloud cover. If we want storms to develop, we will need sunshine. Dewpoints are higher across the area, which is encouraging.
Models look slightly better than yesterday for storm formation both today and tomorrow.
Yet, something is off with the models. I mentioned that we may see a pause/shift in the monsoonal flow this week. I need to spend some time on it and see what I can learn. I will post again later today, after I get a better handle on what may be happening.
Here were yesterday’s totals above 0.20 inches
West
Dolores
S 7th St 0.31
DmdCo 0.60
GW7688 0.66
East
Pagosa area
Backcountry Dr 0.34
Glen Eaton 0.38
Wilderness Dr 0.34
Easy St 0.40
W Log Hill Rd 0.28
Central
Forest Lakes area
Pinetree 0.22
Lake Simpatico 0.38
Meadowbrook Dr 0.32
Pine River Ranch Cir 0.48
CR 502 0.39
Lemon McCoy Crk 0.24
North
Spruce Mesa 0.32
Lakewood Dr 0.47
South
None
I am going to get to work on this weather pattern and will post again later today.

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Saturday- Mystery Radar App Unlocked

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

7/25/26 Saturday 11:30 am

What would you think if I told you that the beautiful radar image I posted this morning was from the La Plata County Radar app? I know, I know.

There is a catch, and it is a big one. When you’re in the app, click/touch where it says “La Plata Radar”. A page pops up where you can switch to  “National Radar”. When you hit the go back arrow on the top left, that beautiful imaging will come up.

You can also click settings and switch to satellite view. Hmmm. Wasn’t our LPC radar supposed to be better, “Game Changer,” if I remember correctly? It’s the same feed Wunderground uses, which is a Grand Junction/Denver/ ABQ blend. The difference between this one and Wunderground is imaging and resolution.

Which begs the question: is the LPC Radar the equivalent of the piece of exercise equipment that we had to have, but now has clothes hanging from it?

Mystery solved!

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Saturday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

07/25/26 Saturday 5 am

Yesterday morning, I wrote the following:

“Showers will mostly favor higher terrain. Could we get a rogue cell that wreaks havoc like the one yesterday that showed up near Trimble? Sure we could. But organized shower activity looks unlikely according to the models I am looking at.”

Then yesterday afternoon:

“It is a little too early yet today to say whether storms will develop. Yesterday, and the last few days, we have seen late development. I still anticipate some spotty, scattered showers today. I keep an eye on the radar, but it often goes from nothing to something. I get the lightning notification, then look back at the radar, and there they are.”

A little later, I got a lightning detection notification on my phone that said 2-4 miles. Then this happened

Speaking of rogue cells showing up out of nowhere, here is what one of those isolated cells looks like:

This screenshot was from a friend of mine who lives in Durango West I. I am using his better than mine. I want to download this app, it seems to provide decent detail. Sean, text me the name of this app so I can download it!

The red portion literally ended up right over my house (that indicator is not my house). At its peak, rain intensity hit 3.16 inches per hour.  It started losing intensity pretty quickly, but  I still got 1.20 inches.

This cell fired in the Southern La Platas, then drifted SE right over us. Emphasizing my point from yesterday, this is what makes these storms so difficult to forecast!

Here were yesterday’s few and far between totals above 0.20 inches
West
Hesperus Leaning Oak Dr 1.34
Hesperus 140 0.51
Dgo West II 1.20
Dgo West II 1.01
Rafter J N. Rd 0.30
Rafter J 0.30
North
Trout Lake 0.77
Opus Hut 0.61
South
S Skylane Dr 0.25
East
None
Central
None
 Today, according to models, overall, the chances are more conducive to widespread storm development. The only red flag I see is that, at the moment, the dew point has dropped slightly. Maybe nothing to worry about because it looks like we’ll have more daytime heating under our strong sun to juice the atmosphere back up.
For what it is worth, most models are highlighting heavier pockets south of Durango in the late afternoon or early evening. We will see.
Sunday looks similar, but at the moment models are showing a higher probability of storm development.
Tomorrow, I will look at the rest of the week. The monsoonal flow may temporarily shift later this week. But in the longer-term models, they show the flow returning to our area heavier than we have seen so far, as we hit August.

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Friday Afternoon-Weekend Outlook

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment

7/24/26 Friday Noon

It is a little too early yet today to say whether storms will develop. Yesterday, and the last few days, we have seen late development. I still anticipate some spotty scattered showers today. I keep an eye on the radar, but it often goes from nothing to something. I get the lightning notification, then look back at the radar, and there they are.

As I mentioned the other day, I am already looking forward to winter. Snow forecast posts take longer to prepare. But because you are tracking an existing storm for days before it arrives, it gives the models a chance to converge a couple of days before the event.

Monsoonal/summer showers develop out of nowhere; even if the high pressure and surface(thermal) lows are in ideal locations, you still have to worry about flow direction and steering winds. Throw in our unique terrain, and there is a better chance the models will get it wrong than correct.

Saturday and Sunday both look like there will be better chances of development than what we have seen today (so far anyway). I will post in the morning, hopefully earlier than I did today; hopefully there will be better model agreement than what I am seeing today!

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Friday Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

7/24/26 Friday 5 am

Today looks very similar to yesterday. Showers will mostly favor higher terrain. Could we get a rogue cell that wreaks havoc like the one yesterday that showed up near Trimble? Sure we could. But organized shower activity looks unlikely according to the models I am looking at.

Here are yesterday’s totals, in inches, ending at midnight

South
S Skylane Dr 0.83
Rainbow Rd 1 0.29
Rainbow Rd 2 0.28
East
Pagosa
Rainbow Dr 0.44
Brookhill Dr 0.37
Central
Durango Area
Turtle Lake Meadows
Hermosa/Trimble
Starwood Trl 0.44
Trimble Station 0.68
Confluence Ave 0.78
North Dalton Ranch 0.46
 Hermosa Meadows Rd 0.78
Burnett Haul Rd 0.26
Cr 250 North  End 0.41
White Water Dr 0.28
Bell Canyon Rd 0.57
North
Pinnacle View Dr 0.34
Columbine Rd 0.26
Telluride Area
Trout Lake 0.28
Old Butterfly Rd 0.43
Alta Lakes Rd 0.55
Sundance Ln 0.27
W Laurel Ln 0.31
E Serapia Dr 0.55
Deep Creek Mesa 0.94
After all of the models are out, I will post a Weekend Update.

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Thursday Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

7/23/26 Thursday 5:30 am

If we have learned (or at least remembered) one thing lately, it is that the models are nearly worthless when it comes to forecasting rainfall amounts for any given location.

If you are new, don’t worry; they are much more reliable in the winter. I am really looking forward to the winter!

For today, models do show lighter, more scattered coverage for thunderstorms- since models have been wrong, we will probably get bullseye amounts over the entire forecast area. I feel like it is going to be an all-or-nothing day. But I would note that this morning we have the highest dewpoint since this pattern change started!

Yesterday, I explained that the totals I am posting only go until midnight. Any overnight totals will be posted with the new daytime totals the next day. As expected, many locations had already exceeded the minimum threshold (0.20) overnight, so I would have a lot of totals to share. That was an understatement!

Yesterday’s Totals In Inches
West
Cortez Dolores
Beamreach Pl 0.24
Fort Riley 0.28
S 7th St 0.36
GW7688 0.36
Ground Hog 0.87
Mancos
Rd42
SE of Mancos 0.52
DW2 0.61
Rafter
S Elk Run 0.82
Mountain Top Rd 0.60
Castle Rdg Dr 0.81
Lightner Creek 1.16
South
S Skylane Dr 0.71
Walker Ln 0.50
Rainbow Rd1 0.37
Rainbow Rd2 0.54
CR 302 0.28
Quarter Horse Rd 0.45
HFMS 0.41
CR172 0.27
East
Pagosa Area
Cactus Dr 0.28
Scenic 0.22
W Log Hill Rd 0.64
Harman Ave 0.50
Central 
Bayfield
Rd 521 0.38
West Bayfield 0.65
“Jim” 0.50
Forest Lakes Area
Pinetree 0.56
Lake Simpatico 0.72
Meadowbrook Dr 0.61
Pine River Ranch Circle 0.86
Old Cortez Trail 0.90
Hawks Meadow Rd 1.24
Lemon (McCoy) 0.97
CR 501 Vallecito 0.49
CR502 1.17
Elk Meadow Rd 0.59
Tecalote 0.69
Edgemont
Calico Trl  0.46
Edgemont Meadows Rd .88
Iron King Rd 0.42
Terra Blue Way 0.54
Durango
Sage Hill 0.47
CR 251 0.25
Rim Dr 0.43
W #rd Ave 0.24
Crestview Dr 0.41
Junction St 0.51
Turtle Lake Meadows 0.95
CR 250 0.37
Cr 250  0.52
Cr 250 0.74
Hermosa/Trimble
Starwood Trail 0.50
Falls Creek Main 0.60
Trimble Station 0.67
US-550 0.58
White Water Dr 0.75
North End of CR 250 0.68
Burnett Haul Rd 0.58
North
Glacier 0.50
Lakewood Dr 0.64
Columbine Rd 0.59
Trout Lake 0.35
Old Butterfly Rd 0.32
Alta Lakes Rd 0.26
Telluride Area
Sundance Lane 0.28
West Laurel Ln 0.39
E Serapio Dr 0.30
Deep Creek Mesa 1.03
N Fir 0.26
N Willow St 0.28
E Columbia 0.27
State Hwy 361 (Ouray) 0.27
If I see something developing throughout the day, I will post again!

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Wednesday Afternoon: More On The Way-Flood Watch

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

Wednesday 11:00 am

The odd morning thunderstorm was a remnant of last night’s storms. It was in New Mexico and got caught up in SE flow, retrograding over the forecast area. It looks like it’s getting close to Silverton and Telluride at the moment.

Update 11:30 am. The NWS just issued a flood watch for most of Western Colorado, including our entire forecast area. I was wrong when I said I did not see us included this morning. The original statement came out at 1:20 am. Here is the latest.

1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...All of eastern Utah and western Colorado including several
  recent burn scars.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks,
  streams, slot canyons, slick rock areas, recent burn scars, and
  other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in
  poor drainage and urban areas.

Not very flashy, are they?

I am a little disappointed we did not get a couple of hours of sunshine. We could still. All it means is a delayed onset of the more active showers.

Model-simulated radar shows some big storms rolling through after 5 pm through the evening and overnight. We will see; keep in mind that does not mean it won’t rain before then, so be prepared!

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