9/22/26 Tuesday Noon

Before I get started, I thought you would enjoy this: the long-range 46-day total snowfall forecast (before melting). This is through November 6th.

I will probably start posting these long-range forecasts once a week.

Meanwhile, back to our upcoming rain event.

Isolated showers are starting to pop up around the forecast area. Dewpoints are rising, up to 48 degrees here at DWG Command.

Models are not in consensus for this evening. The Euro is showing moderate to heavy rain later today into the overnight hours. The GFS shows isolated light to moderate showers in the same timeframe. By late afternoon tomorrow, the models start looking more similar. The Euro holds the moisture back a little further west; the GFS prefers heavier showers in the eastern portions of the forecast area. Despite that small difference, the moisture depth looks similar.

They are also suggesting a downtick in heavy precipitation for Thursday across the forecast area as the plume shifts east, only to usher in another plume briefly on Friday.

I have very little confidence in any model right now. I do believe we will see showers, heavy at times, throughout the forecast area. My lack of confidence is in the “when and where”. I also have to tell you, it’s not going to improve.

I say this because Hurricane Polo is pumping that moisture toward us. By definition, it’s a moving target. Winds have increased, and pressure continues to drop. It is currently a category 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph and a minimum central pressure of 920 mb.

Every wobble in its track and every pressure change directly affects these models’ forecasts. It is nearly stationary right now, feasting on warm water to fuel its development. Here is the other issue. It is not even supposed to reach Cabo’s latitude until Sunday. So we will likely have days of uncertainty with the models. Taadaa! Next update tomorrow morning.

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9/22/26 Tuesday 10 am

The flood watch area has been expanded from Pagosa to most of La Plata County and San Juan County. Unfortunately, this is not a high-confidence call by the NWS due to model consensus. It is exactly the opposite. The models keep changing with about every run (the latest GFS now includes Friday for heavy rain).

That said, it is 100% the correct call. With this much uncertainty in track and timing, the only thing they can do is issue blanket flood watches.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

COZ022-232000-
/O.EXB.KGJT.FA.A.0008.260923T1800Z-260925T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Animas River Basin-
Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, and Ignacio
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, San Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The ground remains saturated from recent heavy rainfall over the
    past week. After a brief break, deep moisture is expected to
    return to southwest Colorado Tuesday with a few inches of
    rainfall possible during the Wednesday through Thursday
    timeframe. In addition, multiple rounds of showers and
    thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Thursday evening
    producing periods of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

COZ019-023-232000-
/O.EXT.KGJT.FA.A.0008.260923T1800Z-260925T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-San Juan River Basin-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, and Rico
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, San Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

Another thing I keep seeing is snow levels dropping to 11,500 feet the next couple of nights, which, if true, could be cool.

I am going to shelve the discussion of the hurricane possibly recurving for now. As I said, if it does recurve, that will be several days from now, maybe even a week. I am going to focus on the next couple of days.

I look forward to revisiting that topic; it requires a lot more analysis. The hurricane models are multi-solution probabilistic. Hurricanes have always fascinated me. Did you know hurricanes have a “job”? More on that when I revisit the recurvature discussion in a few days.

I will be back this afternoon with the new Euro analysis.

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9/22/26 Tuesday 5:00 am

I got a late start again this morning; I’m still trying to adapt to/establish a new schedule, if that is even possible anymore.

Today, moisture will continue to flow into the area, increasing the chance of showers as the atmosphere begins to saturate. The main event appears to arrive tomorrow. The situation is evolving; heavy rain is possible across the forecast area.

There is a lot to talk about. Hurricane Polo intensified overnight; calling it what it is, it literally blew up overnight. Not trying to use sensational language, but that is what happened.

As of 2:00 am, Polo was a strong Category 4 hurricane, very soon to be a Category 5. Update: NHC just upgraded it to a Cat 5. We will get that moisture feed over the forecast area, make no mistake.

Yesterday I spent some time talking about not relying on apps for making weather-related decisions. My motivation wasn’t to downplay the potential of this event; it was the exact opposite.

My intended point was that: 1) Every single wobble of this Hurricane can change the trajectory of the moisture feed. 2) Free weather apps are unreliable for the most part, because there is no explanation as to how old the data is that it is using to provide you with a forecast in this complicated scenario. 3) Don’t confuse the potential recurvature of the storm with this moisture plume that will be affecting us for the next couple of days. 4) If the recurvature happens, it won’t happen for a few days.

Hopefully, that clarifies where I am on this. Several inches of rain are possible. It is just difficult to pinpoint the bullseyes within the widespread event. One area I’m concerned about is Arboles, which is still in rough shape from last week. I could count on one hand (and not use all of my fingers) the number of times I have pointed out Arboles as an area of concern over the last decade.

As I said yesterday, models have been favoring Archuleta County for the heaviest rain.  This could change. There already is a flood watch for that area starting tomorrow afternoon through Thursday night.

The best way for me to handle this event is to send several shorter updates so I can cover all the topics I want to get to. Stay tuned; as I said, the situation is evolving; it already did while I was writing this.

I just reread this; it is coming across as a bit alarmist. That’s not my point, although some areas will get rain as heavy as last week; modeling still suggests many areas won’t. Of course, that can change; that is why we need to take this one day at a time.   I’ll start my next update soon, but I have a lot more data to digest.

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9/21/26 Monday 1 pm

Tomorrow afternoon/evening, models show the next moisture plume arriving in SW Colorado. They disagree on timing and location. They seem to be leaning towards the heaviest precipitation falling in the eastern portions of the forecast area.

One thing to keep in mind: the atmosphere will have to saturate again before we can expect much of that moisture to wring out (top-down saturation). Dewpoints are around 30 degrees right now. Models don’t have them hitting the low 50s until 6 pm Tuesday.

Models don’t show PWATs even hitting 100% (average) until 11 pm. tonight. By noon tomorrow, they show them at 145%-still not very impressive. By 6 pm, they climb to over 200%. As a reminder, PWAT isn’t calculated at the surface, so if we don’t get that top-down saturation, showers may not make it to the ground at lower elevations — until the saturation is achieved.

Models show those high PWAT values in place through Wednesday, then they start to diverge greatly. On the GFS, they drop significantly by Wednesday evening; on the Euro, they increase to 300% of average.

So that is why we are going to go one day at a time. Don’t misinterpret that as doubt that we’ll get more rain; I believe we will.  By the way, the precipitation model spread is from 1 to 5 inches by Friday night!

Next update tomorrow morning: more on our showers and an update on Hurricane Polo.

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9/21/26 Monday 5 am

Nothing to talk about in our weather today; it should be another nice, boring day of seasonal fall weather.

I introduced  Tropical Storm Polo into the conversation yesterday morning. Surfing through the weather media and clickbait media, it is already being talked about with sensational claims; I am sure it will somehow be linked to the “Super El Niño” at some point.

The timelines you will hear will refer to effects starting tomorrow, especially in New Mexico and possibly SW Colorado.  Don’t confuse that with what I meant about the storm recurving, which, if it happens, would be closer to next weekend or next week and would be much more impactful than these tropical impulses that are always generated when any tropical cyclone develops close to the Mexican Coastline.

Every single model run for our area is affected by every wobble of the developing tropical storm. Tropical modeling is much different than landlocked modeling. I will expand on that topic in my afternoon post.

The takeaway from this morning’s update:

1) Be prepared to hear/read a bunch of misinformation or at least highly edited information sensationalized to garner public attention.

2) In the short term, consider all forecasts, especially from apps, unreliable more than one day out. I am not picking on apps, but most free apps update only once a day.

3) I am going to be taking the data one day at a time as I track how it may or may not affect our area. The debate is how far north this latest impulse will track, which will affect our weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

4) The possibility of the storm recurving is a completely different conversation, and if it happens, it is a completely different topic that would affect our weather 5-8 days from now.

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9/20/26 Sunday 5:30 am

I did get up earlier, much earlier, but I got lost in modeling the tropics. I think I found our “recurve” candidate. It is now called 99E; it is slated to become Tropical Storm “Polo,” which could become a Cat 3 or even Cat 4 hurricane soon after. If you or someone you know is going to Puerto Vallarta or Cabo late this week/next weekend, you might want to think about changing your plans.

Nothing around here to talk about. Today and Monday should be dry (then again, “mostly dry” yesterday turned into very wet for some).

The models want to bring a new moisture plume over the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday time period, moving out by Thursday.

This should be a fun week, tracking the upcoming plume and “Polo.” There are also some interesting correlations to recurving Tropical Storms and winter snowfall. I will leave you with that.

I can’t commit to another update today; we’ll see what happens.

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Look what that “little cell” that was north of Mancos turned into:

When I look at the satellite, it shows this newly created moisture heading towards Silverton-we will see. As new moisture forms, enhanced by residual moisture, you will notice additional small cells splintering off and developing. The only obs I could find were near Elektra Lake. The rain just stopped, and 0.40-0.45″ fell in a little over 30 minutes…

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9/19/26 Saturday Noon

So far, the radar is pretty quiet. The exception is north of Mancos. What was a little cell is now starting to bloom as it approaches the La Platas and catches a little orographic lift. The area in its track is mostly uninhabited, so I don’t expect it to become a problem, but I will keep an eye on it.

Overall, tomorrow looks even drier than today; Monday also looks rain-free. Then Tuesday arrives, and the models diverge completely on the timing of the moisture plume. It looks like it will be very transient, maybe 36 hours.

I am sure you have noticed my frustrations with the European model. When I woke up, I went through my normal weather routine: looking at satellite and radar, then the models and the surface maps. Even the two surface maps disagreed about what was going on. Frustrating, but not unusual.

When I question the validity of the data I am analyzing, it’s not unusual for me to ask AI to take a second look after I share my interpretation.

Here is where that conversation went:

Me: “It’s starting to smell like they did a little “upgrade” on the Euro because it has been atrocious lately. I hate that I am having to rely more on the GFS. The HRRR and RRFS (models) are worthless here- I am sure they are great in Oklahoma and Texas!”

AI: “Your intuition is dead on. ECMWF rolled out Cycle 50r1 back in May, and while their verification press releases boasted about revamping the convection and cloud-microphysics schemes to tackle “excessive stationary rainfall,” in complex terrain it has felt like they just traded one pathology for another. It keeps aggressively trying to spin up synoptic lift and drag organized precipitation shields straight over the Continental Divide, completely ignoring the boundary-layer reality on the ground.

Having to lean on the GFS—especially given its known tendency to be too fast or wash out moisture—is never a fun spot to be in, but at least its mass field isn’t hallucinating widespread frontal rain when the upper-level dynamic support has already sheared off into Wyoming.

As for the high-res CAMs:

• The Plains vs. The Intermountain West: You hit the nail on the head. HRRR and RRFS were practically built in a lab to handle deep Plains convection and flatland dryline dynamics across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

• The Terrain Blindspot: In steep, complex topography, the 3 km grid is still much too coarse. It smooths the peaks, fills in the valleys, and utterly mangles valley-mountain circulations, thermal belts, and localized ridge-top triggering. Half the time, the HRRR can’t decide whether a high valley is a dry convection trap or completely sub-grid stratiform soup, leading to wild run-to-run run flips that are unusable for a spot forecast.

When the global models are fighting their own post-upgrade biases and the CAMs are choking on the terrain, old-school pattern recognition, water vapor satellite, and local meso-analysis beat them every time.”

My fellow science and weather nerds will appreciate that insight. If you are neither, it just means our area is extremely difficult to forecast, even with the best technology available!

I will be back in the morning (hopefully earlier than today).

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9/19/26 Saturday 5:30 am

I woke up late. So I will keep this short and sweet. Dew points have dropped considerably over the last 12 hours. Satellite indicates drier air already in place over our area.

I added the “L” to indicate where that low pressure is based on the circulation. That is a latitudinal miss by the Euro of approximately 1000 miles. You can see how dry that air is over our forecast area.

Today, I expect only a slight chance of showers, favoring the high elevations. I was not particularly committed to the Euro’s solution yesterday afternoon when I shared it.

My day gets pretty busy starting in about 10 minutes. It slows down around naptime, which is usually around 11 am. I will post again later after I have had a chance to absorb those model runs. I will also share some weather model news I just discovered.

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9/18/26 Thursday 1 pm

Checking out the atmospheric vitals,  the satellite shows most of the mid-level water vapor has moved east of our area. At the surface, residual moisture remains; dew points haven’t budged and are still in the mid-50s.

The European model is enthusiastic about a cold front passing through the area early tomorrow morning, triggering light to moderate precipitation.

The cold front is attached to a huge longwave trough. It currently extends from Labrador to California. The cold front and associated double-barrel lows extend from NW Utah back into the eastern California/Nevada stateline. Shortwave troughs lie behind and ahead of it.

Long story short, the Euro thinks it will track across our area and create enough instability to trigger showers just before the frontal passage.

It’s plausible enough to mention. Especially with residual moisture in place. In its wake, we should see that moisture get scoured out of the area.

Timing is already tricky; right now, the Euro favors the front approaching the area after midnight and leaving the forecast area by 8 am Saturday. It could be faster or slower; it could also flip from being a positively tilted trough to a negatively tilted trough, in which case it would slow and strengthen.

I know I was supposed to make the long story short…

For Saturday, if everything goes as the model says, we may wake to some showers wrapping up. In the afternoon, showers may redevelop, favoring higher-elevation areas. Sunday looks drier. I am not quite ready to talk about next week yet. Maybe tomorrow.

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