10/16/26 Friday 4:00 am

I thought there would be a little more weather “forecaster downtime” before the models reached conclusions about the next big event.

But consensus is across the board.

This is NOAA’s NBM. It’s a high-resolution model and typically overly conservative with precipitation.

GFS-Onboard, but it seems to be thinking too hard about it, more than the other models. It fluctuates run-to-run in how it handles terrain, while keeping the big picture. Its terrain struggles are exactly why I always weight the GFS lowest in my snow forecasts. Regardless, it increased its forecast totals.

European: It also increased its forecast totals.

Canadian: It also increased its forecast totals

At this point, I can see that heavier precipitation is forecast to arrive late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Models, however, are seeing pulses of lighter precipitation before the heavy stuff arrives.  Right now, those first pulses look like they’ll arrive on Sunday.

I have a lot of questions, but it’s too early to put too much effort into finding answers that don’t exist yet.

I can’t yet determine how much extra tropical moisture is tied to the low. That will have a major effect on snow levels. It will be the difference between feet of snow at the pass levels or lots of slush.

Overall, I am very encouraged, nearly cautiously optimistic, but I want to see a few more model runs echoing what I have been seeing the last couple of days. If one model is likely to go off the rails, it’s the GFS; that’s just what it does.

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10/15/26 Thursday  3:30 am

The day after. The Post-Event Excitement Crush has arrived. Fortunately, I think it will be short-lived. It will give me time to work on some of those website changes I have talked about. Of course, I will be monitoring the situation as well.

Late Weekend

As for the weather, we’ll be in a quiet period until maybe Sunday. We will have to see how it comes together. The model shows moisture from Simon moving up through western New Mexico and into the area.

I think it will end up as light scattered showers, maybe thunderstorms, with very spotty accumulations. In other words, nothing to get excited about, yet.

Next Week

Models are converging on another event mid-to-late week. An extremely potent low-pressure system is expected to track down the West Coast once again.

Originating near Alaska, models show an unusual amount of moisture in those upper latitudes to fuel it. I believe the moisture comes from a recurving Typhoon from Asia; however, I can’t confirm that yet in the modeling.

Recurving Typhoons ending up in Alaska are not uncommon. Fans of the show Deadliest Catch know this. Those that slide down the West Coast often fuel early high-elevation winter storms in our region.

As I said, models differ on timing, but they are showing the potential for a massive event.   Here is a first look at precipitation totals for the event. Remember, we are not looking at these maps as a forecast; we’re looking at the potential this setup could bring if everything comes together.

If the models weren’t agreeing on the framework, I wouldn’t even consider showing the maps this early.

GFS is the most conservative right now. As I said with the last storm, the GFS has a bias toward moving storms too quickly from west to east across the country, which shortens storm duration and reduces precipitation potential.

European

My one concern with the last storm was the Canadian model. It was not on board early on. It didn’t join the other models until the first few drops fell. That is not the case at all this time. This is an early vote of confidence.

Canadian

It’s too early, to know what snow levels will be. But if I saw this in December, this would telegraph the potential for 4 to 6 feet of snow over Wolf Creek Pass.

I will still check in every morning with the latest model updates.

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10/14/26 Wednesday 3:30 am-

My last words yesterday afternoon: “If this continues through tomorrow night (as I said, I don’t think it will stick around that long), it could get interesting.”

I posted my totals on the Precipitation Report Page. I am confident that we will be able to look back at this event as a perfect example of “right for the wrong reason”.

• The model kept pumping out high totals early on. Saturday’s totals were supposed to be low, and they were.
• Sunday was supposed to be light during the day and heavy Sunday night, accounting for half of the forecast totals by Monday morning. That did not happen.
• The other half of the forecast was supposed to fall from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Understatement so far…
• In the last 18 hours, the system more than made up for Sunday night’s miss. If no other drop falls, most areas have received as much as, or more than, the forecasted event totals.

So the models got the event totals right; it just fell at different times than the models thought it would. This is very encouraging to me for my winter storm forecasts this season!

As I said, I don’t think we will continue to see heavy precipitation through tonight. Higher elevations will likely get most of the remaining heavy precipitation.

The exception for lower and mid elevations would be if the sun comes out and this residual moisture becomes fuel for thunderstorms. Then all bets are off. That could produce spotty but heavy rain.

Going forward, my upcoming Updates are going to be focusing on:

• The potential for what’s left of Simon’s moisture to enter our forecast area and bring more precipitation Saturday night/Sunday.
• Trudy’s track. It looks very similar to Polo, Odalys, and Rachel.
• Another potent closed low that will start moving down California’s Coast next week, potentially bringing us more heavy rain and snow about a week from now.
• El Niño Update. Hint: It is not “coming” or “developing”. It’s been “here,” and according to NOAA, we have likely reached its peak strength, and it will start reversing in 4 to 6 weeks. If you want a big snow year, that is the best news we could get!

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Tuesday 3 pm

I can’t beleive I didn’t send that early morning update out. But it wouldn’t be the first time. Thanks to those who emailed me.

Today’s Surface Map Shuffle hasn’t happened in quite a while. Human error is alive and well.

The Map Guys at NOAA/WPC get, for lack of a better term, get a draft surface map generated from surface data, various reporting stations, and observations from NWS field offices. Then they analyze and correct it when necessary, which they do too much.

I would hypothesize that as technology has advanced, they are applying old biases that their old “super” computers used to struggle with. Personally, I think they should not mess with the auto-generated maps. I say that based on looking at years of their mistakes/misinterpreations.

Long-time followers remember that this isn’t the first time I have complained about this.

So here is where I am at with this event. I am exhausted. It’s raining at a pretty good clip.

WHOA, big thunder and lightning, cool! Rain rate just went EXTREME  (2.67″ per hour)

Model consensus, for what it is worth, shows that from noon today until the event ends tomorrow night, additional totals will be between 0.80-1.75″ for lower and middle elevations, with over 2.0″ in the higher elevations. I have a feeling we’ll be done way before tomorrow night. Just my opinion, or local weather guy intuition…

A couple of other things that I saw that already made me tired and excited. If you like this event’s template, we may be repeating next week. Before that, we may get to see some Simon moisture this weekend; we will see what’s left of it.

The newest disturbance in the EPAC will strengthen quickly; it will likely become a hurricane tomorrow. Hurricane Trudy. She apparently wants to see everything Rachel did. Preliminary Tropical Cyclone Track models are already indicating that. Oh yeah, there is a good chance of another low dropping down from the NW into Southern California near the time of her landfall.

South of soon-to-be Trudy, another is already developing; if it succeeds, it would be crowned Vance.

Rain is still falling here, pretty heavy. The DWG Command Center is reporting 1.15″ today (4:10 pm). If this continues through tomorrow night (as I said, I don’t think it will stick around that long), it could get interesting.

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If you are confused by my mid-morning post, you should be. I hit Save Draft instead of Publish with on my  early morning update–sorry been running on 3:40 min sleep today.

 

10/13/26  Tuesday 3:00 am

I couldn’t get my thoughts together well enough to post an update yesterday afternoon. Honestly, it would have been more rambling than content. I am going to get going on that Sus page. It won’t take long; I just have to make a few decisions. I woke up in a panic today realizing it’s her birthday on Saturday; I am not sure how to handle that, anyway.

The evening models initialized better than I thought, but not great. The latest European will be out at 5:45 am. I am expecting it to initialize better now that we finally have some movement to our west!

Long story short, nothing happened yesterday afternoon. As I explained yesterday, the model errors were resulting from the low pressure camped out over  Las Vegas, and until it started moving, the models would be wrong.

This was Monday at 3 pm (no movement).

Monday at 6 pm (no movement)

Monday 9 pm FINALLY

Tuesday 3 am (latest, but very little movement in 6 hours)

I will be watching the tilt of this trough. At the moment, it is a “stand-up cold front”. If it leans forward, it will be positively tilted, which means it is weakening and will move very quickly. If it leans back, it will move slowly and strengthen.

Normally, in a morning post, I’d reference overnight model runs. None of that matters right now, until I can see these models acknowledging the trough movement (initializing). That is when I step away and wait an hour for the overnight European model to be released.

Update 5:45 am

Pretty good initialization from the European. I’m still amazed at the amount of precipitation the models expect to fall, both rain and snow. If this consensus solution verifies, it will be one of the best examples of “right for the wrong reasons” I have ever seen. For now, I am going to keep my eyes off the surface maps, and hope they are accurate. If the NWS issues a Winter Weather Advisory, it is unlikely they will do so in advance. Rather, they will wait and see how bad it gets.

 

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Tuesday 10 am

The plot thickens…

As the morning models were getting going, this surface map came out. It looks a lot like the one I shared this morning.

3 hours later, this came out…

This is similar to what was shown most of yesterday.  So all the morning models will be impacted by incorrect data. At a minimum, if it is “corrected,” assuming it is wrong. It will be about 1:30 pm before it is released.

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10/12/26 Monday 4:00 am

I am starting to suffer from model precipitation error fatigue. That’s what it seems like, but the error is in the timing, and it may work in our favor.

I woke up and looked out the window so many times overnight hoping for wet pavement. I finally gave up and started digging into the model runs, satellite, and radar.

Last night and overnight, the models initialized well. They picked up on the strengthening low pressure to our west, and the stationary front temporarily slowing the low’s progression and the associated cold front. This now gets very interesting…

Gut reaction: “Models have been wrong so far; why should we think they are going to correct over the next 48-72 hours?”

It occurs to me that the models are no longer accounting for post-tropical conditions over the SW deserts. In their interpretations, this is a typical low-pressure system tracking over the SW US. That is not the case.

Hurricanes/Cyclones feast off of moisture and warm water. They sometimes stall over an area with plenty of fuel; they undergo an eyewall replacement, then, as they keep “feeding”, they grow more powerful.

What does all of this have to do with a hurricane?   What is a hurricane in the simplest explanation? It is a low-pressure system…

In its wake, Rachel left an inordinate amount of moisture for the low-pressure system to feast on. Think of it as a land hurricane that has stalled over a fuel source.

How do I know this? Let’s get back to the current surface map.

The stationary front is indicated by the alternating red and blue “flags” along the boundary.  Now look at the low-pressure system along the California/Nevada border, marked by blue flags. The blue flags indicate it is a cold front. Notice how it looks like a comma?  It’s leaning back. This is called a negatively tilted trough, which means the trough is strengthening.

I anticipate the stationary front will either break away from the rest of the long wave. That long wave currently extends all the way to Labrador. Or the whole thing will drop across the Upper Midwest, ushering in very cold air. Either solution would bring that stationary front in and let the low pressure start moving our way again.

Wow, I am guilty of getting too deep into this discussion. There was no easier way to explain my take on what is happening.  One more thing as I try to wrap this up.

Things to keep in mind: Timing isn’t set in stone yet. All models are still showing significant rain and snow. Higher amounts than I have seen in the last few days. Models show this low weakening as it is approaching. They currently show a depth of 552 mb when it arrives, which indicates snow down to around 8,000 ft. However, accumulation that low depends on the time of arrival.

Well, the low isn’t weakening right now as the model indicates. If the low continues to strengthen, it could get deeper; 546 mb indicates snow levels of 6,500 feet. I am not forecasting snow that low; I am just trying to put it in perspective.

I will be back this afternoon to recap new model runs and play by play with the surface maps.

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10/11/26 Sunday 1:30 pm

So far, so good (I know, stick with me). The latest Euro expected very light showers this morning; we got them.  Then it forecasted light to moderate showers this afternoon and evening; we’ll see.

We might get some thunderstorms now that the sun has popped out. The latest European model predicted maximum CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) at 4 pm this afternoon.

Supporting that, our dewpoints have jumped into the low to mid-50s across the lower and mid-elevations. By the way, this morning, while I was looking at weather stations across the Southwest, I noticed a station north of Blythe, CA, registering a 74.7-degree dew point as Rachel’s remnants strode by, crazy for the desert!

As I explained a couple of days ago, it’s not all about Rachel. A cold front and low pressure in the west are also in play. Rachel has effectively been absorbed by the other two players. Mostly to the cold front/winter storm to the north.

The positioning of those players has changed slightly. Here it was at 3 am. I explained what was what.

Here is the latest (noon) map below, showing the latest positions. I have directional arrows to show you how these would historically track given the current meteorological conditions.

These low-pressure systems, one embedded in the cold front and the other coming down from the Pac NW, now have the remaining Rachel moisture as energy.

Uh oh diversion

I had to stop typing for a minute because I was laughing so hard. Sus, napping, was doing her “singing”. You can’t understand any of the words, but it is clear from her professional singing background and the fact that the musical centers of her brain are remarkably preserved despite her CBD neurological disorder.  So she went for the” dooo doo doo do do da do!” finish. Then, a second later, with perfect clarity, she said, “Thank you!” as if she were on stage again.

Sorry about that. Question: Should I add a Sus page, like the precipitation report, that those of you who are interested can click to read the latest on her condition or some of her struggles? That way I can keep the two separate.

End of diversion

The point of the weather update was that Rachel is gone and living in the other two. They are still far away from us, over a day.

It’s too early to call on Simon, and it’s late in the week. To be honest, I would be very surprised if things with Simon come together, but I understand why some models think it will.

Anyway, tomorrow still looks like on and off showers until the evening. The focus now is Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday night.

I’ll be back in the morning. I was serious about Sus page; please give me your feedback.

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10/11/26 Sunday 3:30 am

Famous last words…

“Now we just need to wait and see which model delivers! I will be back in the morning.”

So far, none of them!  Tropical Storm Rachel made landfall at approximately 9:45 pm last night.

When you wake up expecting precipitation, and there is none, or not as much as the models showed, you have to wait for a complete model reset.  This model miss is called poor initialization. It happens a lot for our area.

This is why I always stress the “right for the wrong reasons” theory. Meaning, often with a large winter storm or a recurve, the models get the day-to-day amounts wrong, but are much closer if you spread it out over the event’s duration.

If I beleive all the models that have so far gotten things wrong, there is still rain and some mountain snow on the way. Last night’s European is still trying to use low pressure to try to tap into late-week moisture from Simon and deliver it on Friday and Saturday. No other model shows this occurrence.

Potentially good news? I have been coordinating the activity I see on the radar with weather stations.  As impressive as the radar looks in spots, not much is happening. Three areas look very active: Cedar City, Utah; Flagstaff; and Las Vegas. But when I look at the weather stations, most are reporting less than 0.30″. Accumulations are slightly higher near Palm Springs and southwest of there.

The latest surface map was just released. This was as of 3 am (they always lag a couple of hours).

Number one, I challenge their positioning of Rachel. But the real big story is that none of the other players are getting involved, yet. I marked them on the map; only the majors, none of the shortwaves or other minor perturbations.

6 am Update

Hopefully more good news. The overnight European rapid update model did initialize well. It shows a very similar forecast for today, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, as it has been showing for the last few days. It also still shows respectable totals through Wednesday night.

Today

Dewpoints are right where forecast. It looks like a mix of clouds and sun this morning.  A slight chance of light rain. Showers developing late this afternoon and evening.

I am going to stop here for now. The new Euro will be out in about 5 1/2 hours. The new GFS and Canadian will be out in under 4 hours. I want to see those before I get married to this latest European run.

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10/10/26  Saturday  4:00 pm

Who says I don’t take special requests? No, I was not hired to promote the race. I have always dreamed of being able to distance run again, as I did in my 30s (early through late); 1995 to 2002.

So I have a bit of a soft spot for this topic. My best marathon was 4:32, I know, laughable, but I identified with the “Clydesdale Class”  @225 pounds 6’2′.  I went through 6 pairs of Brooks Beasts a year back then, when they were incredible. My longest run ever was 54 miles (flat terrain).

Why did I stop? Multiple fractures in my fib and ankle ended up with 4 titanium rods and a ton of nerve damage. Have not skied since 2003; I had over 30 good years before that.

OK Enough.

Sunday Marathon Forecast

All I can tell you is that most models are delaying onset precipitation tonight. That should carry through tomorrow morning and result in less precipitation between 6 am and noon. I remember running a marathon in a nice light rain, temps in the low to mid 50s, and it was wonderful.  Check in tomorrow morning. I will post one last marathon update before 6:30 am.

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