6/24/26 Wednesday 1:30 pm

I wanted to spend a little time looking at the most recent data before I posted.  It looks like the precip is slow to start, or at least to reach the ground. It looks great on the radar, but the roads in the cams are still dry. Virga is the appropriate term for precipitation that evaporates before reaching the ground.

Light showers could start between 4 and 8 pm. Maybe a little later in the far south portions of the forecast area.

The current surface map shows scattered showers all the way back to St. George, Utah. Just to the west of there, a shortwave trough sits slightly west of Las Vegas. At the opposite end, on the Colorado Eastern Plains, Is a significant stationary front. That could affect things, depending on how long it stays in place. There is high pressure in SW South Dakota that will try to keep it in place in the near term.

Most of the system should be gone by the end of the day tomorrow. I would expect showers to redevelop late in the day on Thursday, and Friday, as daytime heating will fuel residual moisture left from this system.

As I have said, not a huge producer in the lower elevations. On the low end, 0.20″ to 0.60″ across the lower to mid-elevations. There are a couple of bullseyes showing up across the higher elevations, with amounts ranging from 0.50″ to 1.20″-which would be nice!

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

6/23/26 Tuesday 11:30 am

What a difference 48 hours makes. GFS finally shows the event. It did not 12 hours ago. It is also the run with the least conviction. It shows a”drive by storm” starting tomorrow evening.

Here it is:

GFS12z 6/23

You can call it unimpressive, but you have to keep in mind it had been insistent of a miss.

The EURO’s run continues to evolve, but shows some impressive mountain totals, with just enough in the lower elevations to keep the weeds growing.

I am still working on the medical post. It is more difficult than I expected.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Sunday, June 21st, 6:30 am (158 days until Thanksgiving)

Just a couple of blips on the (future) radar screen. Not all of the models have found it yet, let alone have any consensus.

The European model seems to be trying to work some precipitation into forecast, it’s even measurable! GFS wants nothing to do with it. The Canadian model (in typical fashion) is curious enough to start revising its own forecast — but it’s far from “all in”.

In these scenarios, the change shows up on Thursday afternoon. It looks like it will have all of the elements necessary for Thunderstorms. Back in the day, we would refer to these as High-Heat Based Thunderstorms. These days, in the world of ever-changing terminology, they are called “Mesoscale Convective Vortices” or, more commonly, “MCVs”.

As I said, the GFS shows nothing (a typical resolution issue). For now, as I have been for most of the year, I am cautiously optimistic, but will be watching closely.

If it happens as planned, it will wipe out outdoor plans for Thursday afternoon and night, as well as all day Friday.

I will update everyone soon. I can already imagine my email box filling up.

Re: Thursday and Friday. ” My daughter is getting married Friday night (on dirt), do you think this will affect her wedding?”

I’ll be baack.

 

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

 

6/14/26 Sunday 8 am

I just looked at the weather models this morning. I did not anticipate seeing anything.  Leave it to the European to throw a wrench in that. Throughout the forecast area, I would add a chance of thunderstorms, favoring the higher elevations (without ruling out other areas). Again, these are very difficult to predict, but it looks like the ingredients may come together.

This is the afternoon CAPE forecast. Just think of CAPE as all of the necessary ingredients for thunderstorms.  Values above 500 exponentially increase the chance of convective activity. Also, don’t mistake thunderstorms for heavy rain. It can happen, which would be nice, but it can also result in dry thunderstorms, lightning, downbursts, and high winds. All the stuff we don’t need in our Tinder-box conditions right now. Sorry, I wish I had better news.

Also, regarding the Sus update: Why do I keep thinking I am in charge of my own schedule when literally anything can change at any second?

Yesterday, rather than accomplish all of my “must-dos “. I ended up with watchtower duty. This is when Sus is overly confident and thinks she needs to walk everywhere in the house. She gets angry if I fuss over her too much. So I kind of watch her from afar, following about 8 feet behind when she leaves the room. Even with close supervision, she fell 6 times in about 4 hours of exploration.  Nothing serious, but I have learned that you can’t go through too many “harmless” falls without a bad one showing up-it’s just a numbers game.  I will explain more eventually.

I guess I always feel like I need to explain when I promise something and can’t deliver on time.

 

 

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

 

06/12/26 Friday 1o am.

And just like that, we are nearly halfway through June, with no significant moisture expected until July (from what I am seeing). I gotta tell you, I was really rooting for a “Summer Solstice” mountain snow storm. That would round out the last 6 months very well.

When nothing is going on at all, I look at the extended models’ 30-46-day range forecasts.  I can’t make this bold a prediction; however, long-term models suggest that, starting in July, a “switch” is flipped and wet weather finally arrives. Then, the models show weeks of above-average precipitation. I am not saying it can’t happen. For many years, that 4th of July timeframe has kicked off our “rainy season.”

I think it’s important to remember what the two driest months of the year are (in the Durango area). Anyone? Anyone? Yes, that’s right:  May and June.

If you are new to the area, most of our precipitation”averages” are derived from anomalies year to year. So, “average” in SW Colorado does not mean the same thing as it does in Kansas or most other states, where “averages” tend to be more predictable.  June tends to look like the following when you look at year-to-year totals: 0.17, .60, 0, 0, 0.15, 2.53, o.30. etc. Over the last century or so, you see a lot of 0.0 to 0.20-inch totals, with some years getting over 5 inches in June (recurving TP storm or depression). Even with the extraordinarily dry winter this year.  June is a bad month to fall on the sword when it comes to lack of precipitation.

I have a lot to share regarding Susan. I get more emails about her than about the weather.

I am going to do a dedicated update (no weather ) on her condition this weekend. She/we have gone through the largest decline so far in just the last month. It’s a lot to process and also exhausting. I will start on it later today, hoping to have it out before Monday morning.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

06/02/26 Tuesday 5:30 am

I feel 100% better. Aside from a couple of regular “old guy” pains when I first wake up. Last October, I got really sick with Norovirus. I got emails from people who told me the obvious: lack of sleep and stress caring for Sus weakened my body, and I got sick as a result.

I think that is what I was dealing with last week. It starts with sleep, and I have figured that piece out (again). I will hold off on any other details for a while as I experiment with Sus’s new developments.

I look at the weather each day, and I have not missed much! It looks like the next 7 to 10 days will continue to see occasional afternoon showers and thunderstorms Boring… The good news is that the dry weather is killing my lawn. DIE LAWN DIE!

Models show a wetter period developing after that. But we need a trigger. The best trigger after a couple of months of dryness would be a recurving tropical storm from the Pacific. During El Niño, there is usually more activity in the eastern Pacific than in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. Seasonal African dust seems a little denser than average, I don’t expect anything in the Atlantic anytime soon.

In addition to the extended model runs, this is where I will focus my attention.

Also, we have not talked about this in a while, but some Atmospheric Scientists are attributing all the “Super” El Niño talk to models not handling the potential for an El Niño Modoki. First here is how to pronounce it. It sounds like Hokey-Pokey: Modoki. It means “similar but different. In a typical El Niño, the region that gets the warmest is closest to the coast of South America. With Modoki, it’s the next region of water west (middle) of the plume.

We had one a “couple” of years ago. I am sure I can find precipitation data for the Modoki years compared with traditional El Niño.

I do feel pretty good, I don’t expect to take as long between posts going forward.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Ooooops, this was done hours ago, and I got called away and forgot to send it.

05/26/26 Tuesday 4:45 am

Good news! Great model consensus! Bad news, all but one is forecasting zero to a coulple of tenths. I had the check back on the SPC’s (Storm Prediction Center) convective outlook for today. Remember how this system was supposed to wreak havoc in the midwest? That all has changed.  They now show no precipitation at all to “Category 0,” which is a slight chance of thunderstorms. I would still keep an umbrella in the car.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

05/25/26 Monday 11 am

I hope everyone is enjoying their extended weekend! I have very little new to share because of model inconsistencies. That alone turns this into a dartboard event. The extremes are 0.50 inches to Zero.  BTW, with such a weak system, I expect this type of model inconsistency.

For the models, shoulder seasons suck. Why? Because the dominant northern jet retreats to the north. Humidity is generally south of us, and/or east of us.  The systems are essentially rudderless, i.e., they just drift about with very little moisture to tap into until they reach extreme eastern Colorado.

Moisture and the sun are the fuel for thunderstorm development. I looked at surface CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) across all models. The best way to describe CAPE is the energy necessary for thunderstorm development.

There is no single answer for correlating CAPE readings with thunderstorms. Generally, the higher you go in elevation, the lower the required CAPE values are. At 6000-7000 ft, you would be looking for CAPE values in excess of 500. If you know what CAPE is and are from the Midwest down to Texas, you are likely laughing right now. In Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas, it is not unusual to see CAPE values of 2000!

They can laugh at us for low CAPE, and we can laugh at them for panicking with 2-4 inches of snow, seems fair to me! The models still have about 18 hours to come to a better consensus. I don’t expect that to happen, but I will check in early Tuesday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

05/24/26 Sunday 4 am

Good Morning!

Not much has changed. For today, a slight chance of very light showers favoring the higher elevations.

On Monday, expect a slow start, with mostly light showers again starting in the afternoon, and a better chance of some of those showers drifting over the Valleys after 5 pm.

Tuesday holds our best chances to get something accumulating, but overall, none of this is impressive. Not yet.

Here are the model forecasts for Monday morning through Wednesday morning.

European

GFS

Canadian (anomaly)

As I identified above, this is a huge anomaly. The Canadian is known for sniffing out anomalies in the winter, but in my experience, not so much in early Summer.  It will be interesting to see its next 2 models run and how that may affect totals in the other runs. For now, I am disregarding this completely.

Enjoy the rest of the long Holiday weekend. I will check back in on Monday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

5/22/26 Friday 5 am

These days, it seems like I start off with the same line: “I have not caught up with my emails yet”. By that I mean I have not looked at them since Monday.

Monday late morning.  I knew I had a fever. I did. Ibuprofen did a good job breaking it. But when it wore off, it would come right back. It hit 101.7 on Tuesday. This cycle ended last night-it did not come back. Here I am.

Overall, the weekend looks good. There are no well-organized systems that would be precursors or triggers for heavy precipitation. This does not mean there won’t be showers every afternoon, especially above 9,500 feet. As for lower elevations, if you haven’t already, buy an umbrella and leave it in the car. The rainy season is coming soon.

Some models indicate a higher chance of more organized precipitation for us on Monday night. The weather looks active in Northern New Mexico, and basically the rest of that state.

I anticipate being able to check in this weekend.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report