8/27/26 Thursday 4 am

A better night; sleep is good. I am pretty good even with 4 1/2 hours of sleep; 3 1/2 hours, not so much. A lotta stress Tuesday evening led to bad sleep through the night.  When I woke up Wednesday, I had to make a call and decide what realistic expectations were, and I had to put all of my energy into taking care of Sus.

Yesterday, a few pop-up storms developed. For today, shower chances decrease,  but can’t be ruled out. Friday looks like shower chances drop to nil. We will see if it stays like that.

Saturday afternoon, models suggest we tap back into the monsoonal-style flow, with residual moisture fueling Sunday afternoon showers. It’s too early to talk about next week; models show different solutions for the area.

As I said, yesterday’s totals were pretty sporadic

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8/26/26 Wednesday 5:30 am

Might be delayed until Thursday…

You know, we’ve all been there. Uggh

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8/25/26 Tuesday 4:30 am

Yesterday was a really bad day for me. I am rested, reset, and ready to take on the day!

For today, and largely the rest of the week, expect more pop-up (nonsoon) lottery showers as the flow moves east.

Not many totals to discuss. Residual moisture in the Valley fueled afternoon showers.

Hermosa area:

Starwood Trl: 0.22″

Trimble Station: 0.44″

Confluence Ave: 0.25″

Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.45″

Falls Creek Main: 0.34″

Outliers

CR 501 NE of Vallecito: 0.44″

Mayday: 0.83″

That was it!

You know what, I am kind of over this on-again, off-again moisture flow. Bring on a new season!

This attitude shows as I scroll hour by hour through 360-hr and 384-hour model runs. I find myself looking for something a little more interesting. Like snow and Tropical Storms.

Guess what, looking a little over a week out, through into the first week in September, I see the possibility of both! Of course not in the same place or the same time.  But on a macro level, that TS/Cyclonic storm potential may affect our pattern.

This is indicating a Category 3 hurricane, ruining Labor Day weekend for those who planned a Mexico trip. I am not going too deep into it now; call this a tease. I am hoping to work on that particular update as a bonus.  We will also look at the potential for high-elevation snow. And something no one is talking about: what looks to be a big adjustment in the El Niño outlook. NWS/ CPC (Climate Prediction Center) quietly released some data last Thursday, indicating they are concerned that the “Super” El Niño indicated by one of their models likely got too far ahead of its skis! That could be good news for us!

Not sure exactly when I will be done with it; it could be tomorrow, or it could be this weekend. So stay tuned for that.

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8/24/26 Monday 5:30 am

Most areas that did get rain got moderate to high totals. Coverage was better where it did fall. However, overall, coverage across the forecast area was poor.

Dew points are down.  PWATs are down in areas that did not get significant rain. But of course, both values are elevated in the areas that did get rain.

For today, the areas that got good rain yesterday will be favored today because of the significant residual moisture.

Here are the totals:

West

DWG: 0.38″

Kline: 0.30″

CO-140: 0.28″

N Rd: 0.27″

Castle Rdg Dr: 0.33″

South

S Skylane Dr: 0.23″

East (Pagosa area)

Cactus Dr: 0.80″

Kelseya Cir: 1.53″

Majestic Dr: 0.22″

Easy St: 0.48″

Harman Ave: 0.23″

Central

Pinetree Dr: 0.45″

Meadowbrook Dr: 0.37″

Lake Simpatico: 0.72″

Co Rd 502: 0.23″

Sage Hill Weather: 0.26″

Junction St: 0.24″

Co Rd 250: 0.67″

Co Rd 250: 0.42″

Starwood Trail: 0.77″

Trimble Station: 1.84″

Falls Creek Main: 1.05″

US-550 RR MP463: 0.53″

North Dalton Ranch: 1.08″

Confluence Ave: 1.66″

Burnett Haul Rd: 0.56″

White Water Dr: 0.38″

Spruce Mesa Dr: 0.49″

Columbine Rd: 0.53″

North

None

I am running way behind this morning, but should have enough time to get through the morning model and post again this afternoon.

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8/23/26 Sunday 4:30 am

I gotta admit, I am pretty disappointed. These dang models have to be correct at some point, don’t they? Yes, Jeff, but it won’t be until winter…

I am sure you have noticed how this progression has gone. “Wednesday looks like we will have the heaviest rain of the week.” Then: “Now it looks like Thursday will be the best chance of widespread rain this week.” Then: “It now looks like Friday will be the focus of heavy precipitation.” Then: “Saturday now looks like the best chance for heavy showers.” Guess what?

For today, once again, the models show a rosy outlook for the forecast area. Showing the best chance of showers- don’t shoot the messenger. I interpret what they see; it turns out they need glasses, if not eye surgery!

This is frustrating, maybe more so for me, because it is a nice distraction for me when I have something else to focus on instead of the same things happening at exactly the same times every day. I may have to do a Sus update earlier than I thought because a couple of new conditions have popped up. I will save it for later.

OK. Emergency course correction: avoid the rabbit hole!

I am back.

Well, dew points are finally where they need to be across most of the forecast area–higher than yesterday afternoon. PWATs are higher at this time of day than they have been all week. If there were ever a time for the models to be right, it would be in this convincing setup.

Believe it or not, it was not a bust for everyone. Dolores, Pagosa, and some locations in Forest Lakes got some rain yesterday. Here is the list

West (Dolores)

S 7th St: 0.60″

DmdCO: 0.48″

GW7688: 0.27″

East (Pagosa)

Wilderness Dr: 0.42″

Glen Eaton Dr: 0.96″

Holiday Ave: 0.28″

Scenic Ave: 0.66″

Kelseya Cir: 0.56″

Majestic Dr: 0.40″

W Log Hill Rd: 0.33″

Harman Ave: 0.23″

Central

Pinetree Dr: 0.31″

Lake Simpatico: 0.68″

Meadowbrook Dr: 0.21″

Duty calls; I will be back this afternoon…

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Saturday 4 pm

Hoping this is what the European was counting on for later this evening in the lower elevations!

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Well, the radar looks much better than yesterday. This is 2 pm

Here is a close-up

Dew points are UP!

Morning models increased coverage overall. The European is highlighting heavier showers at lower elevations, including Durango, between 5 and 10 pm. We will see; normally, I only pay attention to a setup like this in the winter. But it is so specific, I thought I would mention it in case you are out and about this evening.

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I forgot to post the few totals from yesterday. Telluride was favored.

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8/22/26 Saturday 4:30 am

For today, will it be a repeat performance of what actually happened? Or will we get what the models forecasted yesterday but didn’t materialize? I felt pretty good about the forecast 24 hours ago. But then the model updated, and as I explained in my afternoon post, my forecast confidence crashed.

For example: Here was yesterday’s forecast between noon and six pm yesterday.

Here is today’s forecast between noon and six pm

They look very similar. So, as I just said, will it be a repeat performance of what actually happened? Or will it do what the models forecasted yesterday but didn’t materialize?

The model run you see above is slightly more convincing than yesterday’s. Similar, but a little different.

Behind the scenes, the current surface map shows the same stationary front I saw yesterday across the eastern plains of Colorado. However, it has retrograded about 120 miles west from yesterday. The northern portions of the front are right up against the foothills north of Denver.

I am also seeing support from the new short-term model for the latest European run. This new short-term model is experimental for four more months before it replaces the NAM3k model.

This morning’s dew points are the same as yesterday; current PWATs are higher than yesterday.

This current setup provides better support for the higher elevations. I am going to stick with isolated coverage for today, favoring the higher elevations.

There will be another afternoon update or two this afternoon.

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8/21/26, Friday after 2 pm

I was not too crazy about the latest run of the European model. I also wish we would see an uptick in dew points. Of course, the model lowered PWATs for this afternoon and evening. The radar is not very impressive either

I am not saying it’s going to be a bust for everyone. High pressure is to our southeast; it’s supposed to move farther SE. But the unexpected wobbles of these highs and lows can confuse a model (and forecasters). Bring on the winter storm season!

I started off negative, so stick with me as I try to talk myself into evening storms: It was one model run. The model had tagged today as the best day for widespread rain for several days, 4 times a day. That is consistency, and it usually is a great signal. The last run to show that was the one that came out 6 hours after the last positive run. That would be highly unusual to have a week’s worth of runs- call it 28 positive to 1 negative.

The radar isn’t naked:

Sorry, Southern forecast area, that portion of the radar was actually naked, so I did not think it would be appropriate to leave it on there.

The first thing that jumps out at me is that intense cell over Rico; it’s been there a while. In fact, this radar shot is from 3:40 pm. None of this activity has moved very much. That means there is no dominant flow, and steering winds are nearly non-existent.

An excellent question would be: “What is it going to do?” But I would not ask myself that because I know I can’t give a confident answer.  I just remember the prior positive model runs had shown moist inflow coming between 5-9 pm. Also, an increase in PWATs and (storm) CAPE. So if you are out tonight, don’t be surprised either way. I hope it was an anomalous run; it would not be the first time!

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