10/23/26 Friday 4 am
Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.
I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.
“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”
Besides that, the closures tell the story.
From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.
For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.
I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.
The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?
That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”
(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)
Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).
NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH
Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today
Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.
San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.
Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now
La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now
Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).
Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along.
Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.
Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now
Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago
Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible
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