Sunday Update: Tracking The Pattern Change And The Demise of El Nino

On November 8, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

11/08/26 Sunday 4:00 am

A high-pressure ridge has dominated our weather, keeping the storm train well north of us.

If we beleive the models, we may see a pattern change first affecting the West Coast around November 12th. By a week from today, moisture is expected to move into Arizona and New Mexico, mostly missing us, but another storm is on its heels that looks more promising. All models show this, though timing varies.

I would love to roll out the precipitation maps now, but there is still too much uncertainty. If models remain consistent over the next couple of days, we can take a closer look.

Pivoting

I have been saying this Super El Niño may not technically set any records. We just started the final 3-month period to determine whether this will be a record, so it won’t be until February before anyone can declare it a record. But temps will have to sustain or warm for the next 3 months (through the end of January).

Here is the secret nobody talks about. NOAA runs a bias-corrected version of their over-exuberant CFS model. It shows El Niño has already peaked and ocean temps will fall dramatically.

Before I show you NOAA’s data, let me explain how and why they do this. They use their CFS model to forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Their CFS model is inconsistent and tends to run warm. Here is what they do. They take the model run, then load in all the actual results (versus the forecast) to correct the model’s biases.

Here is what nobody talks about.

If you follow the dashed black line (the mean), it shows these temps falling off a cliff after peaking in October. Guess what has not happened since October: The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Train. In October, we were seeing multiple hurricanes forming off the southern Mexican Coast and the Central American Coast.

Not anymore. The EPAC hurricane season doesn’t end for three weeks, so we may still see something develop. But I don’t think it would be a stretch to suggest a correlation between El Niño peaking during what now looks like the peak of the hurricane season.

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Thursday Update: Winter Weather Series Millibars And Elevations

On November 5, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

11/05/26 Thursday 4:30 am

These “Winter Weather Series” posts will be lengthy, but I will try to make them easy to understand and interesting to read. Rather than skimming through it, read it when you have time to absorb it. With what looks like a very snowy winter ahead, I will be using these terms a lot

Millibars vs Inches of Mercury

A term forecasters and meteorologists throw around a lot is millibars. They use them to track approximate rain vs. snow levels and to track storms. They use them to track the Polar Vortex, high-pressure ridges, and blocking patterns.

It’s not complicated; millibars indicate air pressure. Most modern weather stations convert air pressure to sea-level equivalent (MSL). So the true air pressure is effectively hidden behind the translation.

You can measure air pressure in two ways. Either millibars (MB) or inches of mercury (inHg). Inches of mercury is the more common measure to most people; millibars are more common with forecasters.

Some of us are old enough to remember that it was common to own a barometer. They were decorative and would sit on a fireplace mantel or an office desk; if the pressure was low, the dial would say “Stormy”; if high, it would say “Clear” or “Pleasant”.

When you watch hurricane coverage on the news, you hear about Hurricane intensity. Intensity is indicated by categories 1 through 5. Meteorologists determine categories using central pressure (millibars) and observed wind speeds from hurricane hunter aircraft. Hurricanes become major hurricanes when the central pressure drops to 964 millibars (MB).

Air pressure lowers with elevation; we live at elevation. “Standard” sea level is 1013.25 MB or 29.92 (inHg). As I said, most weather stations convert to sea-level pressure automatically regardless of your elevation, so it’s misleading.

My weather station indicates 30.15 (inHg). I live at 7450 feet; my true air pressure is 22.89 (inHg). In millibars, sea-level pressure is 1013(MB). At my elevation, my actual reading is 775.40(MB).

Why It Matters With Our Weather

Storm Tracking

Forecasters use (MB) readings to track storms and help determine snow levels. Here is a map we call “the 500(MB):

Look at the MB lines from top to bottom: 564, 567, 570, 573, etc. This indicates high pressure with “pleasant” weather.

Here is an example of low pressure (stormy)

We have two examples. The huge storm in the west, and the smaller storm in the east. See the circles of lines? That monster in the Northwest shows 513, 516, 522, 528, etc. 513(MB) is a very, very strong storm. It’s going to absolutely pound Washington and Oregon.

Snow Levels

Here is a GFS wishcast for November 19th.

I chose this because it shows all of the snow levels I monitor for storms. 552, 546, 540. These are also referred to as “thickness” levels.

At 540(MB), the rain/snow line is all the way down to 5,000 feet (elevation)

546(MB)=6,500 feet, so if you live in town, Durango, you will get snow when 546 is overhead.

552(MB)= 8,000 feet.

558(MB)=9,500 feet.

564(MB)=11,000 feet

For the most part, that is all you need to know when you look at my forecast maps. I am going to make these Winter Weather Series accessible on the home page of the site. It won’t be right away, but it is on the list.

Next up during this calm weather break: an El Niño update