2/15/26 Sunday Noon

I have been asked why I concentrate on only 3 weather models. Well, I usually only share 2 or 3. But I look at nearly every one of them.

It takes a while to crop them down and label locations. So, in the interest of time, here are some of the models I look at besides the  “Big Three”.

The other benefit to not cropping these down is that if you look at the bottom right of the map you will see MAX with a number next to it. That is the maximum output amount. In this case, it says 50.9. Referring to 50.9 inches, which just happens to refer to that little pink dot near Wolf Creek.

NBM (National Blend Of Models) hi res.

NBM v5 (experimental)

Canadian GDPS(Experimental)

UK Met- Apparently, they don’t worry too much about snow in the UK because there is no snow output parameter. This is in liquid equivalent (inches)

ICON (German) again in liquid, but for a different reason–it handles snow horribly.

Big Three

European

GFS

Canadian

You can’t help but notice that they all share a similar story, which makes it a pretty high-confidence event.

Adding to the confidence is Probabilistic Guidance (say that 5 times fast), which shows a 75% chance of 1 to 2+ feet of snow in the mountains. They arrive at that number by running numerous simulations. That is a very high number. I don’t recall the last time I saw such a high number for that much snow!

 

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2/15/26 Sunday 6:30 am

I slept in, not on purpose; it just happened.

The models remain very consistent run to run. Not only are the models consistent with each other, but they are also consistent with themselves. In other words, they keep showing the same thing every run–A lot of snow!

Although there appear to be three distinct events that will be difficult to time, this will likely make travel planning largely impossible. Each system reinforces the previous one, leaving little time for CDOT to catch up. For safety, they will likely have to close passes for cleanup.

“Pre-Storm” snow will likely begin in the mountains at some time on Monday. By Tuesday morning, the models are showing us in the thick of it, just in time for the morning commute. Do I think schools will have to close this week? It would not surprise me!

Late Tuesday, the snow may taper off in the lower elevations, but I can’t see any reason why it would stop before Thursday in the mountains. It will just be lighter between the heavier periods.

The second shot is currently scheduled to arrive on Wednesday afternoon, lasting through the evening. At that point, models show more of a distinct lull on Thursday before another system loads up over the Sierra. For the week, areas from Tahoe down to Mammoth will accumulate totals up to 100 inches!

While we won’t see that much, the model totals are still impressive for the week.

Here are the latest snow totals (based on 10-to-1 ratios, so they could be 20-30% higher above 9,000 feet).

European

GFS

The Canadian is going crazy, literally off the scale.

I say off the scale because it only goes to 48 inches. I reviewed the liquid precip maps and confirmed the model is predicting 69.6 inches. Surprisingly, the Canadian shows the Friday storm missing us, so these totals are from Tuesday to Thursday only. The Canadian is usually pretty accurate for higher elevations. We’ll see.

That is all for now. I will post today’s morning model runs when they all generate

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2/14/26 Saturday 5:30 am

Everybody loves an upside surprise! In this case, the models underforecasted the amount of snow that fell leading up to the storm.

Next week, beginning late Monday night/early Tuesday, the first in a series of systems will arrive. All of them appear potent and disruptive to travel, affecting us most of the week.

I have higher confidence in this event than I did with the last setup. I will break it down in better detail tomorrow.

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2/13/26 Thursday 5 am

Over the last 2 1/2 hours, I have been going through models and waiting for updates. It always seems to be these smaller events that the models struggle the most with.

A quick couple of inches fell at Purgatory overnight. I was watching on webcams and saw a couple of moderate to heavy bands had developed in weak SW flow.

The point is, the models missed that. This means the overnight model runs did not initialize correctly. In other words the assumptions they are making (forecasts) are already potentially flawed.

The models show light on-and-off snow showers this morning, with the heaviest snow between 10 am and 2 pm along 550. For 160, assuming it comes together, the snow would be on the increase later in the day into the evening.

Models how 3 to 5 additional inches of snow for the Red Mountain-Telluride areas. They must be expecting the flow to shift to NW which enhances precipitation in those areas. In areas around Purgatory up to Molas lesser amounts are expected. Samething with Wolf Creek.

I am still a bit skeptical of how this is all going to wrap up today. That said, it does not take long for a couple of inches to fall at elevation.

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Thursday 2/12/26 3 am

The most surprising thing I saw this morning is that the models have “stuck with their plan” for a very long time. This gives me greater confidence in what to expect in the next 7 to 10 days (pattern change).

For today, snow showers may redevelop with no clear catalyst (sometimes it just snows). Tomorrow, another piece of energy will pass to our south, spinning up some moisture, leading to more snow in the mountains.  The models currently indicate accumulating snow in the mountains. There may be some travel impacts for 550 passes as well as Lizard Head. Models indicate a 4- to 8-inch solution from Purgatory to Red Mountain and Telluride.

While the models have done well on the timing of these systems, the details are sticky. These systems that pass to the south, like this one, tend to move through faster and leave less snow than predicted.

When it departs, this system will blossom and bring severe weather to the southern plains and coastal areas. Many times, the low likes to jump over us (for lack of a better explanation) and get to where the action is. (Gulf Moisture). This results in a “was that it?” scenario.

We welcome any moisture, and I hope the models are correct with their forecast. But I am still slightly skeptical that it all comes together as predicted. I will have to see more model runs and will post again before the models say the meaningful snow will begin tomorrow morning.

By the weekend, it will be gone, and drier weather will return until early next week. Next week is what I have been watching for nearly 2 weeks. I have referenced the 17th many times.

Here are the maps in motion, from Monday evening (2/16) through Sunday morning. This is what happens when the ridge finally gets crushed by Arctic air (high pressure) retrograding west across southern Canada.

This is certainly the main event I will be tracking over the coming days.

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2/10/26 Tuesday 4 am

I think you all are figuring out that if I don’t post, there is a reason. I am passionate about the weather, and it is a blessing to have an audience to share my thoughts with.

As I get older, I become more convinced that life has a way of helping you redefine your priorities, and there is typically a reason for it. Perhaps it’s just my way of dealing with the”why” as in “why is this happening”?

Enough said.

Missing a couple of days of model runs is like missing an entire season of your favorite show. It takes a while to get back up to speed on what has happened, is happening, and what may happen.

In my previous posts, I discussed a couple of dates that would signal a pattern change.  They were February 11th and February 17th. Surprisingly, that has not changed. Since February 11th is tomorrow, I wanted to let you know that my thoughts have not changed.

I talked about conditions that favor low pressure would be more conducive to storm development in the western US. Tomorrow (Feb 11), low pressure will come onshore in Central California. This may bring some snow to areas mainly north of Purgatory, favoring the Northern San Juans. This is not a big storm; it is sketchy at best.

Most of the storm’s energy in Colorado will be in the Central and Northern Mountains. But it will linger for a couple of days; there may be a surprise here or there, but generally speaking, it is not a big deal for us.

The other date I mentioned is February 17th. This date was always more important because we should see the persistent ridge we have endured collapse while a big storm comes onshore in California again. These conditions may persist for 4 to 6 days. Beyond that, models get messy and unreliable.

I will continue to monitor and post as I can.

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2/7/25 Saturday 4 am

Just to finish off the last chapter, I got my vehicle back–it was the Body Control Module. I believe that is the main computer for the vehicle. It needed updates. They also changed the oil, rotated the tires, and detailed the whole thing. Then, they delivered it to me. Again, Moreheart Murphy went above and beyond, so if you are in the market for a new vehicle, start there!

Don’t worry, I am not going to do this very often. The fact is, rarely leave the house these days, so I don’t experience exceptional customer service very often because I don’t go anywhere!

Weather

When I last updated, we were discussing the increasing likelihood of low pressure taking over in the west, which would increase the chances of storm development.

The two dates we discussed run from 2/11 or 2/12 (Wednesday/Thursday) through Friday.

Then, there is a chance that the Polar Vortex could influence our weather and perhaps lead to a larger storm a few days later, beginning on 2/17.

Both the European and GFS models still show the favorable conditions, the PV displaced over western Canada, and a big storm around the 17th. That is the good news.

What we don’t know is IF any storms will track our way. Between the two dates, the 17th is more likely to come together than next week. I will continue to monitor the situation. We should have more details regarding 2/17 by midweek.

FDM (full disclosure moment): I tried to write the next paragraph, about the long-range outlook, but couldn’t explain it properly. Here was the AI assist.

Right now, the long-range forecasts for later this month are all over the place. Different weather models are giving us completely opposite predictions, and even within a single model, the data doesn’t make logical sense—like seeing atmospheric patterns that would usually cause one thing, while the ground conditions show another. In short, it’s all ‘weather jibberish’ for now, and we’ll need to wait for the data to settle before we can make a reliable call.

I coined the term weather jibberish. I spent 30 minutes on it before surrendering to AI. It looks so simple now. Oh well. Hopefully, I will get recharged today and back to myself tomorrow. I will try to post again then.

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2/5/26 Thursday 3:30 am

Thanks for all of the “check-ins”. Here is the latest “Not the weather” followed by the “Weather Stuff”

My vehicle was picked up yesterday morning and taken to Moreheart Murphy. Their customer service and follow-up have been amazing. There is no doubt that if I ever needed to buy another vehicle, I would go there.

Speaking of “kudos” Wayne’s Towing and Transport was great. I have never had an experience like that. He was beyond nice, and I learned a lot. He took the extra time to show me things, like how to unlock “Park” in a vehicle with a dead battery so you can push it out of the garage. Anyway, I highly recommend them/him.

BTW, this is for information only, not an advertisement, I have not been incentivised in any way. I like to recognize people and businesses who provide excellent services, since we are a small community.

Lastly, I bought a trickle charger/battery maintainer for when they return my vehicle, hopefully, by Friday. Now if I could find a trickle charger/maintainer for me…

Weather Stuff

In a nutshell, it looks like the pattern will shift next week, around Wednesday/Thursday. GFS and European agree on this. They also agree on a bigger shift around the 17th.

The GFS is interesting, showing some of that Arctic air from the displaced Polar Vortex may reach us around the 17th. We’ll see.

If you are a TV weather watcher, you know that they are cheering on warmer temps for the Midwest. If you have friends and family there, let them know that they are not done with winter, and the warm-up will be relatively short-lived! By April, folks in the east are going to be really sick of winter.

I am going to put the maps in motion, but first, here is a base map of the US for Sunday morning. I do this because we old people were taught Geography and map reading. Many of my younger followers are “post Google/post GPS.” Based on the questions I get, I want to make sure everyone knows what’s going on, and where it is going on.

Sunday Morning

Now I will put the maps in motion beginning Sunday, this is the GFS.

BTW, the top-right of the map shows the day, date, and time.

If you noticed this map ends up with a ridge back over us, it’s too early to worry about that.

I will be actively tracking this, thanks for following!

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2/3/26 Tuesday 9 am

It’s a good thing I didn’t have a storm to track this week, or I wouldn’t have had time to work on it. The last 3 days have not been good, to put it mildly.

I am not going to spend too much time on this, but in hopes that some of the PD community would reach out and share tips/experiences, I thought I would mention it. Feel free to skip ahead.

The last two days, Susan has woken up frozen. For those who don’t know what that is, basically, the person can’t move. The neurological signal gets stuck in a loop. Yesterday I had to carry her to the couch, I had to feed her because she could not pick up the silverware. It took me 7 hours to get her dosed back up without overdosing her. Eventually, she snapped out of it. But it scared the hell out of her, and although I did not show it, me too.  So you all know who you are, reach out if you have any tips.

To compound the situation, My 2025 vehicle that I have put less than 3000 miles on in the last year had a completely dead battery. It could not be charged or jumped. Who knew that if you don’t drive enough, the battery can die? It had been about three weeks since we went anywhere. Between all of the grocery stores and Walmart delivering now and DoorDash, we just don’t “need” to go anywhere.

The good news is I have free roadside assistance, and everything is under warranty; they are coming to pick it up tomorrow morning. So, to my neighbors, when you see my car getting towed tomorrow, that is the reason.

On to the weather

I don’t trust the models for specific details; it is too early. However, as I am about to show you, the ridge is forecast to collapse, and anomalously low pressure will be coming through every couple of days. Low pressure often equals storms or at least colder and unsettled conditions.

I will be showing you a regional map. The warmer colors, orange and red, indicate anomalously high pressure; the blues and greens indicate anomalously low pressure.

First, for those “Cartographically Challenged,” here is your reference:

Here goes: remember, blues and greens favor storminess; orange and red indicate more of the same we have experienced lately. This is the 10-day period that starts next Monday.

I will keep watching, back in a couple of days.

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02/1/26 Sunday 5 am

Nothing to see here… Thought I better send something out, people worry when they don’t hear from me.

NYC is on track to beat the record of days below freezing. Today is day 8. The all-time record is 16 days. Models indicate 14 more days of this.

Snow flurries in Tampa this morning, 30 degrees in West Palm Beach. 8 inches of snow in Myrtle Beach, NC, with temps in the teens. 15 inches of snow in Ocean Isle Beach, NC–more than all the snow that has fallen in the lower elevations for us this entire winter in this one storm!

I admit it, despite my envy, I am watching the storm coverage vicariously. We have had years like this: when it is cold and snowy in the eastern half of the US, it’s typically dry and warm in the west. These cold temperatures in Florida are a 50-year event, for perspective.

When will it change, you ask? I don’t have concrete data I can get excited about because what I see is 10 to 12 days from now. At the moment, the GFS shows a very large storm, while the European model shows a small storm. We’ll see, I will be watching, of course. Hang in there…

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