4/12/26 Sunday 11:30

First of all, I unintentionally teased another storm on my last post, but I got sidetracked with the millibars and forgot to talk about it.

I don’t know yet how well it will come together; if it does, there will be more precipitation on Friday. Looking beyond, I see 3 more chances of mountain snow before the end of April!

Models are coming in, and things still look great for the Tuesday storm. In fact, 3 of the 4 models are showing higher totals than the previous runs.

Next update tomorrow morning.

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4/12/26 Sunday 4:30 am

For today, there is a slight chance of a few pop-up storms here and there.  Conditions will be favorable for the dreaded winds to make an appearance today and tomorrow before the next storm arrives Monday night. I am feeling much more confident with the Tuesday storm. You could likely sense my frustration with the last (bust) storm in my posts.

There will be a couple of things to work out. Snow levels will be much lower. Very cold temperatures, especially on Wednesday morning, could once again threaten vegetation. Models range from 18 to 27 degrees on Wednesday morning. That could change, of course. It will. depend on how clear the skies are. However, I wanted to give those who could potentially be affected enough time to plan.

Here is the European model in motion, from Monday morning through Wednesday morning.

It’s been a while since I explained what those red lines with numbers on them are.

You will see the number 552 contour towards the beginning. That corresponds with a snow level of 8,000 feet. Towards the end, you will see 546, which would result in a snow level of 6,500 feet.

Math geeks may notice that those contour lines are 6mb (millibars) apart.

So here is the cheat sheet:

540mb: 5,000 feet

546mb: 6,500feet (Durango)

552mb: 8,000 feet

558mb: 9,500 feet

564mb: 11,000 feet

Yes,  every 6 millibars change equals 1,500 feet. See? Easy.

That’s enough math for now. Here are the liquid equivalent  precipitation forecasts from the models:

Map Cheat

European

I thought this was a model error, but this is the second run that it has shown those bullseyes. I can’t come up with a reason that those bullseyes should be there, but we’ll see. I am anxious for the next run.

GFS

This looks like a typical GFS run. I factor it into my forecast, but I don’t weight it as heavily in determining the totals.

German

I like it when a model handles terrain the way it should. That is exactly what the German model is doing here. Whether or not it will be correct is another story. I will be tracking this one as well.

WPC (Weather Prediction Center)

This model is typically a little too conservative with its amounts, but I threw it in the lineup as a contrast to the other models. Notice: even this model shows 1+ feet of snow on Wolf Creek Pass.

If all goes well enough today, I will post again in the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be tomorrow morning.

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We are getting to the point as a civilization where we are better at treating cancer than neurological diseases and disorders. Thank god we are getting better at cancer. But a higher percentage of the population struggles with Neuro. Unbelievably tough riddle, I think any big developments will be too late for Sus. She is beyond tracking medically.  1 in 10,000 Parkinsons patients go through Atypical Parkinson’s: 1 in 100,000 PD patients have Aphasia and CBD. I stopped giving her a medication that put her into confident Psychosis. She would go from not being able to move to walking fast and jumping down the steps. Could not protect her, of course, several falls were involved. With the new (simpler, lighter) dosages, so far, it has been better. But it never lasts very long.  Can’t stop the PBA (inability to control emotions based on a short circuit in the brain). It starts with PBA, which immediately triggers her respiratory ataxia. Similar, but for no reason, sleep apnea. I don’t buy it. Sleep apnea occurs in affected folks while they sleep. Respiratory Ataxia happens while they are trying to talk to you. Mix that with aphasia, and both impact speech. The ataxia is crazy. She will say two words, then check out. Almost like she dies, because it takes 1 or 2 seconds to come back, which seems like a lifetime, until she “wakes back up”. I am doing what I can.

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4/10/26 Friday 1:30 pm

I’ve said it before: Small, weak storms are the hardest to forecast. You put in a lot of time, and usually, you get a totally different result than what all of those models you looked at several times a day for a week produced.

Here are my thoughts on this “storm”.

1.  I would not be surprised if many in the lower elevations get enough rain to measure.
2.  Several models show a few (mini) bullseyes in the mountains. Half of them show them right on Wolf Creek Pass. The other half shows them over the 550 passes.  So, if those models verify that up to 6 inches of snow could fall over the 550 passes. For Wolf Creek Pass, the other models forecast up to 9 inches.
3.  It also wouldn’t surprise me if both areas got 4 inches or less.

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4/10/26 Friday 5 am

More of the same. Models are consistent on timing. Light mountain snow showers possible by this afternoon. More numerous light showers for Saturday. Slightly heavier accumulations are possible

Unfortunately, models are struggling to highlight which areas will get those slightly heavier accumulations. The higher resolution American models are highlighting the 550 passes. The medium-resolution models (European and Canadian) expect the higher totals over most of Archuleta County.

By higher totals, I mean isolated spots could get 0.50 inches of rain or 5 inches of sloppy snow. In either case, it should have a very low impact on traveling on Saturday.

I will post again later today after I see the next model runs.

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4/9/26 Thursday 6 am

I am still not seeing sufficient model consistency to give me the confidence I need to issue a forecast, not only on the early next week storm, or the Saturday storm.

Here is one of many examples. Here is a precipitation forecast from one model last night.

Here is the same model 6 hours later…

The second run is nearly the opposite of the first run!

Here is what we know right now: Two storms, one on Saturday, another one on Monday into Tuesday. The Saturday storm will be warmer. The Monday/Tuesday storm will be cooler, with the possibility of significantly lower snow levels on Tuesday. Models favor the second storm for higher precipitation. The second storm could impact travel over the passes.

That is all I can conclude at the moment. The second I see some more consistency, whether that is 6 hours from now or tomorrow morning, I will update everyone.

 

 

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4/8/26 3:30 am

Yesterday’s thunderstorms were fun.  I happened to be under one of those “bullseyes” I referenced yesterday. We picked up a very quick 0.34 inches of rain.

There have been some changes since yesterday. Enough so that I want to hold off on the maps until the next set of model runs.

The models have decided on two distinct storms. The first one is smaller and looks like it starts Saturday morning.  It wraps up Saturday evening. It is a warm storm with snow mainly above 10,000 feet.

Then, on Sunday afternoon, we could see precipitation develop ahead of the larger event on Monday and Tuesday. That is much different from what I was seeing yesterday. If that verifies, then bad travel days would be Monday and Tuesday. That Monday-Tuesday storm is much colder, and models show snow levels dropping significantly below those of the Saturday event. I am hoping to get better clarification after the morning models generate.

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4/07/26 Tuesday 7:30 am

A better chance of rain and snow showers today. Overall, most models show light accumulations; however, they highlight the chance of a couple of bullseyes here and there. If, when, and where they decide to show up is the question.

We could see more of those pop-up showers the rest of the week. Then on Friday evening, things get very, very, interesting again.

Beginning Friday night, more organized showers and snow build in across the entire forecast area.

Travel over the passes this weekend could be tricky; this could extend into Monday or Tuesday. It is difficult to tell (too early)whether it is one or two large storms or just a series of waves triggering precipitation.

Most models show 1 to 3 feet of snow above 9,000 feet. It is a little too early to start posting precipitation maps. If all models continue to show consistency, I will start posting those tomorrow.  I just wanted to give travelers a heads-up if they are going over mountain passes this weekend, into the start of next week!

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4/5/26 Sunday 5 am

The overwhelming theme for at least the first half of this month is “April showers.” In my last post, I talked about a pattern shift. It is looking more like a pattern change now. That does not necessarily mean a big storm.

Rather, it means the stubborn ridge we have dealt with for most of the winter is being replaced by a “dirty ridge.” That’s not a made-up thing. Strong ridges block storms, forcing them over the ridges and depositing them into the Midwest and East Coast.

“Dirty” ridges are weak, and they allow systems to pass under them. I would call it transient weather because systems can flow from west to east. This results in spotty, on-and-off, occasional showers every few days, and hopefully a storm here and there.

That is what you can expect this week: a couple of days of on-and-off showers, followed by dry weather, and then the pattern repeats.

This unsettled pattern begins tomorrow and Tuesday with spotty, on-and-off light showers and snow showers in the mountains. It does look like we have a chance for something more organized going into next weekend/early the following week, but it is too early to tell for sure.

I am behind on responding to emails. Thanks for all of the support. I have been attempting to create some sense of normalcy in our lives. Living in reactive mode is a constant struggle and prevents planning (anything). I try to make the most of the good times and be strong during the challenging times.

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Obviously, I have not been able to keep my posting promises. I do feel guilty about that because there is a core batch of people who keep me “open for business”. They expect me to give them information, and I expect the same from myself.  No matter what, that will never change. If there is anything impacting the weather, no matter what. I will get it out. Don’t give up on me. Have gotten a lot of cancellations lately.

Things have changed a lot with Sus. Things have started getting bad early now. It used to be high maintenance, starting in the afternoon. Lately, it has started earlier. So I do use AI. I feel like I get clinical information when nobody else will give it to me. I rely on Gemini’s latest reads. ChatGPT and Claude are having big issues. You might want to research if using. Maybe my interpretation is incorrect. Check for yourself

With Gemini, I have at least 50 pages of summarized clinical notes. (Yes, Old Guy printed them out).

I asked how I would even describe what is happening, so my/our followers would know what is going on, and why it may “seem” like I am not on top of my forecasts, like I used to be.

The AI actually has videos I have uploaded. Again, divisive to some. But as I approach 62, I understand that Google AI has access to every published medical study. Including video footage of tens of thousands of videos. analysis.  I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer (trolls will have fun with that), but I do have a firm grasp on The Scientific Method. So the scientists reflecting on the data they posted in their studies are post-hypothesis.

Anyway, here was the conversation:

DWG:

 

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