7/23/26 Thursday 5:30 am

If we have learned (or at least remembered) one thing lately, it is that the models are nearly worthless when it comes to forecasting rainfall amounts for any given location.

If you are new, don’t worry; they are much more reliable in the winter. I am really looking forward to the winter!

For today, models do show lighter, more scattered coverage for thunderstorms- since models have been wrong, we will probably get bullseye amounts over the entire forecast area. I feel like it is going to be an all-or-nothing day. But I would note that this morning we have the highest dewpoint since this pattern change started!

Yesterday, I explained that the totals I am posting only go until midnight. Any overnight totals will be posted with the new daytime totals the next day. As expected, many locations had already exceeded the minimum threshold (0.20) overnight, so I would have a lot of totals to share. That was an understatement!

Yesterday’s Totals In Inches

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Wednesday 11:00 am

The odd morning thunderstorm was a remnant of last night’s storms. It was in New Mexico and got caught up in SE flow, retrograding over the forecast area. It looks like it’s getting close to Silverton and Telluride at the moment.

Update 11:30 am. The NWS just issued a flood watch for most of Western Colorado, including our entire forecast area. I was wrong when I said I did not see us included this morning. The original statement came out at 1:20 am. Here is the latest.

1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...All of eastern Utah and western Colorado including several
  recent burn scars.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks,
  streams, slot canyons, slick rock areas, recent burn scars, and
  other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in
  poor drainage and urban areas.

Not very flashy, are they?

I am a little disappointed we did not get a couple of hours of sunshine. We could still. All it means is a delayed onset of the more active showers.

Model-simulated radar shows some big storms rolling through after 5 pm through the evening and overnight. We will see; keep in mind that does not mean it won’t rain before then, so be prepared!

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7/22/26 Wednesday 5:30 am

Wow! Cortez!

The totals listed below are yesterday’s (before midnight) totals, above the 0.20″ minimum threshold. Many areas have already exceeded the threshold for today (since midnight), and will be on the list tomorrow.

Yesterday’s Totals Before Midnight

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7/21/26 Tuesday 4 am

Yesterday I said that overall storm chances would be much lower on Monday. With the exception of areas south of Durango along 550 South, with a couple of bullseyes along the Colorado/New Mexico border.

Farmington did get 0.29″-0.40″ yesterday

That is about it.

Yesterday I also said that storm chances would increase on Tuesday through at least Thursday.

This is what we want to see this time of year. Here is the current radar.

Right where you see that yellow area, which is indicating a strong thunderstorm cell, they have had 1.60″ in two and a half hours.

Both the GFS and European’s latest model run, initialized well to the current radar. Both have very different solutions for the forecast. The European model has a typical late afternoon start, mostly low totals, and features heavier coverage across the forecast area, definitely favoring western areas for the heaviest total, extending later into the evening.

The GFS is predicting very high totals painted across the entire forecast area. It looks believable enough because its model bias tends to forget about the lower elevations, piling it up in the mountains. The GFS also shows showers extending overnight, with occasional short breaks before it cranks things up again late Wednesday morning.

This will be a good test for the GFS and some of the other US models under its umbrella. I have a hunch things are going to get a slower start today. If it doesn’t start up at 2 or 4 pm, be patient; we will judge this surge tomorrow morning.

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7/20/26 Monday 4:00 am

Southern and some central portions of the forecast area finally got in on the action yesterday.

Here are the totals. The minimum amount I am reporting is 0.20″

550 south

Walker Ln 0.67″

Rainbow Rd 1.28″ and 0.88″

Quarter Horse Rd 0.45″

Rafter J 

S. Elk Run 0.22

N road 0.27

Castle Rdg road 0.24

Forest Lakes

Pinetree 0.37

Meadowbrook Dr 0.65

Lake Sympatico 0.97

Olr Cortez Rd (PRR) 0.55

Other reports

CR 220 0.65

CR 250 Durango 0.22

Harper Florida Mesa Station 0.31

CR 302 0.22

McCoy Creek (Lemon) 0.31

County Rd X (west of McPhee) 0.50

Alta Lakes 0.25

Ames 0.39

Models agree that today’s storm chances are decreasing. With the exception of areas south of Durango along 550 South. There are a couple of bullseyes along the Colorado/New Mexico border.

Storm chances increase on Tuesday through at least Thursday.

The models diverge from Friday onwards. The European model shows storms increasing in coverage and intensity beginning later this week. The model run only extends to August 3rd. It shows storms every afternoon through that time period.  Perhaps it is the start of the deeper monsoon we have been waiting for!

Thank you all. I am going to be digging into the emails again today; it’s going to take a couple of days to catch up.

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7/19/26 Sunday 5:30 am

First of all, thank you. I will be following up individually with everyone.

Yes, there were totals yesterday. Mostly up north in and around Telluride and in Pagosa Springs.

Telluride

Deep Creek 1.10″

W Laurel 0.68″

Mountain Village 0.42″

N Fir 0.35

N Willow 0.33

Columbia 0.34

Placerville 0.33

Sawpit 0.56

Hermosa Area

Trimble 0.31

“Kathy’s” house 0.38

N. Dalton Ranch 0.28

Other Totals

“Ground Hog” (Don’t ask me; it appears to be where CR 31 meets Dissapointment Rd)  1.37″

Trappers Crossing 0.46

Edgemont Meadows 0.30

Pagosa Springs had totals ranging from 0.30″ to 0.76″

The rest of us had less than 0.20″

The only thing good I have to say about the models yesterday is that they were targeting the Northern forecast area, and we did have results up there.

Today, they have a new bullseye target. They favor extreme western La Plata County, Archuleta County, and Dolores County. Should be interesting!

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7/18/26 Saturday 5:00 am

Yes, there were totals yesterday. Congratulations Telluride. To be fair, GFS was the only model that got that right yesterday.

Here are Telluride totals:

Fir Street 1.01″

Columbia Ave 0.87″

Willow 0.86

Deep Creek 0.69

Laurel 0.63

Mountain Village 0.52

Lower and Mid -elevations:

Durango Rim Dr. 1.01

Durango in town 0.05″ (donut)

Dolores 0.61

Forest Lakes 0.21 & 0.30

I excluded all totals under .0.09.

Today, models highlight the Telluride area again, as well as a big bullseye over Dolores. It seems pretty random, but Dolores has done better than most areas.

Nearly all of the models show less than 0.10″ for lower elevations. The models have been horrible so far this week across the lower and mid-elevations. So that is what I am going to expect. If they are completely wrong, then we will get more as a bonus.

For tomorrow, models are highlighting western La Plata County and eastern Archuleta.

Yesterday, I noticed some changes in the low and high pressure placement. They are responsible for moisture transport. As of this morning, there is another interesting placement. However, the surface map data is always so old that we never really know if it is correct.

The other thing we had working against us yesterday was convection.  We had cloud cover (at least at my house) nearly all morning. We need that sun to help destabilize the atmosphere so storms can form. We will see what happens.

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7/17/26 Friday 11 pm

About a year ago, nearly to the day, I published a post. We had a horribly dry winter (24/25). When I have very little snow to talk about and forecast, people stop reading. And when they do, donations dry up, with 90% of donations typically coming in during the winter,

So, I reached out in the post. I was perfectly blunt and honest about my wife’s condition. A lot of my followers are friends or former clients of Susan. I explained the situation and asked my donor followers not to wait until the winter/holiday season. I asked everyone to make their donations early, in July rather than December.

Here we are a year later. Last winter, the drought was even worse than last year. Snow totals were the lowest I have encountered in the 18 years I have lived here—likely some of the lowest ever recorded in our area. And, as bad as Sus situation was last year, it pales in comparison to what we are dealing with at home right now.

Over the last few months, Susan has been declining at a much faster rate. To the point where I notice a day-to-day decline at times. If you are new here, my wife was diagnosed four years ago with Parkinson’s. It turns out that was just an initial diagnosis. As time went on, neurologists changed her diagnosis as she began showing signs of five other neurological disorders. I have never said this publicly or privately before, but I have recently come to the painful conclusion that she is dying in front of me, now that dementia has entered the picture.

It wasn’t my intent to give an update on her condition today, as I shared those details last month and plan to continue doing so every six months to keep her many friends in the loop.

Today I am reaching out with the same message as last year. If you usually donate in the winter, I am, once again, asking for your support now rather than later. I feel so blessed to live in a community like this. Your support means the world, and I deeply appreciate the generosity of our communities here in Southwest Colorado.

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7/17/26 Thursday 5:30 am

Sorry I did not get the afternoon update out yesterday; it was a very challenging afternoon.

The 0.03″ of drops I got yesterday were less than impressive. If you are in or close to Durango, Telluride, or Silverton. Yesterday was a bust. On a positive note, I have been enjoying the cooler afternoons and overnight temperatures.

Mancos, Edgemont Highlands, Pagosa, Hawks Meadow off 505. All had higher totals yesterday, between 0.30″ and 0.60″.

Mixed emotions after this week. Though we have had slightly over  1.0″ this week at the DWG Command Center.

Once again, the models are pretty enthusiastic about precipitation chances for today. And, once again, they are painting some higher totals up north across the higher elevations. The models continue to show showery afternoons through midweek, then we may see a break Thursday through next weekend. That could change, and not all models are showing that break.

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7/16/26 Thursday 6:30 am

Experiment complete. Neither HiRes model I shared yesterday did very well. I am retiring them both until winter, and I will give them another shot then.

I can’t say they were 100% wrong. Surprisingly, there were some big bullseyes. 0.87″ off Cr 502. 0.90″ in Dolores. 0.30″ to 0.60″ around Mancos AND Cortez! Then north of Lemon in McCoy Creek, 2.16″. While Vallecito got less than 0.20.

The heavy showers are highly storm-dependent. What have I said for years about thunderstorms? Models cannot make precise predictions of the exact locations where thunderstorms will develop. They can only predict when conditions will be favorable for development.

Speaking of which, morning model consensus from overnight runs is indicating heavier showers today developing further north. Hopefully Telluride will finally get in on the action.

I will be back this afternoon to see if there are any changes to the models after the new ones come out today.

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