It’s very clear who has earned the number 2 spot as Chief Caregiver.

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8/30/26  Sunday 10:30 am

was going to start by sharing some recent headlines about the “Super El Niño.” Then I thought there was no need; everyone has heard it, and we have been hearing it for months.

Last month I came across the following article. This article was published by NOAA’s PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory). Here was the title of the arcticle:

“Climate models get a key feature of El Niño wrong, undermining forecast accuracy”

I am not going to break down the entire article, it has to do with how the models react with cloud cover related to the El Nino conditions, and how that affects model accuracy.

Because NOAA was the source, I decided to look into the weekly El Nino tables published by them.

I looked something called PDF and Spread  Correction. PDF stands for Probability Density Function. Not going to go into a full science class here, but what NOAA’s CPC does is they go back to all of their preferred model’s past ENSO forecasts, then they compare that to the verifications (what actually happened) and they go into this quantile mapping correction to correct the model biases.

Let’s go over how those values are classified:

Weak + 0.5 to +0.9

Moderate +1.0 to +1.4

Strong +1.5 to +1.9

Very Strong => +2.0

Here is the source of all of the “Super El Nino” forecasts we have been hit over the head with the last 6 months.

There are a couple things to point out here. This is the uncorrected forecast showing that monster +3.5 value that everyone latched on to. But notice when that forecast peaks–November! Before most of our forecast area even gets snow! When you actually look at the “heart of winter, that forecast  drops to +1.7. Keep in mind this is the raw forecast before bias correction.

Here is NOAA’s bias corrected version of the same thing

Talk about a completely different forecast!   These values are much lower than the previous record set in 1983 as well as the very strong El Ninos of 1997-98 and 2015-16.

I researched Strong El Nino’s that peaked in November, and became moderate El Ninos in the heart of winter. During the winter of 1972-73, we were in a Strong El Nino it peaked in November  at+2.2. During the heart of winter the average was +1.4. That is an exact match. The other match that I have not mentioned is that we are going to be in strongly negative phase of the PDO this winter, I am not going to do a deep dive in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation right now, but in 72-73 winter we were in a strongly negative phase of the PDO as well.

You can probably see where I am going with the 1972-1973 winter analog. What happened that winter?

Purgatory: 296″ No where near a record. But a very good year. BTW the biggest snow year at Purgatory was in 1978-1979  with 500.5″. The second highest year was 1974-1975  with 458″.

Telluride: This is interesting because the station  is likely near the airport, not on the mountain. The location description is “Telluride 4 mi NW”. 1972-1973 was the 9 heaviest snowfall year on record at that station with 259″.

Durango: You didn’t think it was going to be that easy did you? I am pretty sure the hippies were in charge of record keeping that year. Maybe they were all skiing… They only took 6 readings in December and nothing the rest of the winter!

However, Vallecito did record their totals at the dam. 219.80″, their 3rd highest total ever recorded.

Can we conclude it will be a great winter?  We’ll see! I am sure ready for it!

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8/30/26 4:30 am

That will teach me. That’s it, no more cute “Midday Quick Looks”. I learned my lesson again.  Yesterday, models sent me a “scattered showers forecast and delivered “highly isolated showers” results.

There were a couple of decent accumulations south of Purgatory and NE of Vallecito. For the most part, it was unimpressive across most of the forecast area.

I think this is going to be a problem for a while; the models seem to be struggling to balance these incoming NW troughs vs. the thermal high being the goalie for on-again-off-again monsoonal flow.

I know I am struggling with the mixed signals coming from the models. Bring on winter and an active storm track!

For today, I have been given no reason to believe the scattered showers signal I am getting once again. Isolated showers are the best way to handle today’s forecast.

For tomorrow, models continue to show widespread showers beginning in the afternoon. Over the last two days, they have delayed the onset of heavy showers until much later in the day, so as of this last model run, I don’t expect overnight and morning showers like the models showed 2 days ago.

I am going to be working on that updated El Niño post I promised last week. Fingers crossed I can get it out today!

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11:30 am 8/29

This:

Looks GREAT! Keep coming!

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8/28/26 Friday 4:30 am

Just a few hit-and-miss storms fired yesterday. That is less likely to happen today. The exception will be this afternoon in the higher elevations.

Today, models show drier air overall across the forecast area. But don’t expect that to stick around this weekend.

For the last couple of days, models have been showing more widespread showers beginning tomorrow afternoon. Better coverage than we have seen in a while. This should continue into Sunday, Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening,  and overnight. Some models even show rain on Monday morning.

This is what I will be keeping an eye on. I am not saying I don’t believe what I am seeing for Sunday/Monday, but I would like to see some model verification tomorrow afternoon versus the forecast.

Here are the locations that received measurable precipitation yesterday.

8/27/26 Thursday 4 am

A better night; sleep is good. I am pretty good even with 4 1/2 hours of sleep; 3 1/2 hours, not so much. A lotta stress Tuesday evening led to bad sleep through the night.  When I woke up Wednesday, I had to make a call and decide what realistic expectations were, and I had to put all of my energy into taking care of Sus.

Yesterday, a few pop-up storms developed. For today, shower chances decrease,  but can’t be ruled out. Friday looks like shower chances drop to nil. We will see if it stays like that.

Saturday afternoon, models suggest we tap back into the monsoonal-style flow, with residual moisture fueling Sunday afternoon showers. It’s too early to talk about next week; models show different solutions for the area.

As I said, yesterday’s totals were pretty sporadic

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8/26/26 Wednesday 5:30 am

Might be delayed until Thursday…

You know, we’ve all been there. Uggh

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8/25/26 Tuesday 4:30 am

Yesterday was a really bad day for me. I am rested, reset, and ready to take on the day!

For today, and largely the rest of the week, expect more pop-up (nonsoon) lottery showers as the flow moves east.

Not many totals to discuss. Residual moisture in the Valley fueled afternoon showers.

Hermosa area:

Starwood Trl: 0.22″

Trimble Station: 0.44″

Confluence Ave: 0.25″

Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.45″

Falls Creek Main: 0.34″

Outliers

CR 501 NE of Vallecito: 0.44″

Mayday: 0.83″

That was it!

You know what, I am kind of over this on-again, off-again moisture flow. Bring on a new season!

This attitude shows as I scroll hour by hour through 360-hr and 384-hour model runs. I find myself looking for something a little more interesting. Like snow and Tropical Storms.

Guess what, looking a little over a week out, through into the first week in September, I see the possibility of both! Of course not in the same place or the same time.  But on a macro level, that TS/Cyclonic storm potential may affect our pattern.

This is indicating a Category 3 hurricane, ruining Labor Day weekend for those who planned a Mexico trip. I am not going too deep into it now; call this a tease. I am hoping to work on that particular update as a bonus.  We will also look at the potential for high-elevation snow. And something no one is talking about: what looks to be a big adjustment in the El Niño outlook. NWS/ CPC (Climate Prediction Center) quietly released some data last Thursday, indicating they are concerned that the “Super” El Niño indicated by one of their models likely got too far ahead of its skis! That could be good news for us!

Not sure exactly when I will be done with it; it could be tomorrow, or it could be this weekend. So stay tuned for that.

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8/24/26 Monday 5:30 am

Most areas that did get rain got moderate to high totals. Coverage was better where it did fall. However, overall, coverage across the forecast area was poor.

Dew points are down.  PWATs are down in areas that did not get significant rain. But of course, both values are elevated in the areas that did get rain.

For today, the areas that got good rain yesterday will be favored today because of the significant residual moisture.

Here are the totals:

West

DWG: 0.38″

Kline: 0.30″

CO-140: 0.28″

N Rd: 0.27″

Castle Rdg Dr: 0.33″

South

S Skylane Dr: 0.23″

East (Pagosa area)

Cactus Dr: 0.80″

Kelseya Cir: 1.53″

Majestic Dr: 0.22″

Easy St: 0.48″

Harman Ave: 0.23″

Central

Pinetree Dr: 0.45″

Meadowbrook Dr: 0.37″

Lake Simpatico: 0.72″

Co Rd 502: 0.23″

Sage Hill Weather: 0.26″

Junction St: 0.24″

Co Rd 250: 0.67″

Co Rd 250: 0.42″

Starwood Trail: 0.77″

Trimble Station: 1.84″

Falls Creek Main: 1.05″

US-550 RR MP463: 0.53″

North Dalton Ranch: 1.08″

Confluence Ave: 1.66″

Burnett Haul Rd: 0.56″

White Water Dr: 0.38″

Spruce Mesa Dr: 0.49″

Columbine Rd: 0.53″

North

None

I am running way behind this morning, but should have enough time to get through the morning model and post again this afternoon.

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