8/19/26 Wednesday 4:30 am

Today, isolated showers will favor higher elevations. As always, you can’t rule out an afternoon pop-up shower anywhere.

Yesterday I said this regarding storm development: “Thursday’s chances will be higher than Wednesday’s. Friday’s chance will be higher than Thursday’s, and so on. Dewpoints finally climb into ‘the zone’ by late Thursday or early Friday.”

That is still the case this morning. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are rising and will continue to rise today and every day through the weekend. However, we have a lot of dry air in place, and the dewpoints are rising, just not fast enough to produce widespread showers. Higher elevations can produce storms with lower PWAT and dewpoints, so they will be favored for precipitation development.

The European shows some of those storms drifting off the mountains today.

You have to weight the darker green values over the light green in this transitional environment. Without higher dewpoints and PWAT, some of those showers indicated by the light green will not make it to the ground without a “top-down” saturation.

Today, isolated showers will favor higher elevations. As always, you can’t rule out an afternoon pop-up shower anywhere.

For the rest of the week, tomorrow, scattered showers will be on tap across the forecast area. Friday, it looks like widespread showers will be the forecast. Saturday and Sunday: shower chances increase to likely.

What do those terms actually mean? Good idea; I have not gone through that in a while!

The term “coverage” is used when forecasting showers.  Percentages indicate the percentage of coverage (of the forecast area).

Isolated: 10%-20% (of the forecast area)

Scattered: 30%-50%

Widespread: 60%-70%

Likely: 80%-100%

Reach out if you have some rain this afternoon-not 6 drops, but enough that if you stood outside, you would get wet. If something happens before 2 pm, I will post an afternoon update.

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8/18/26 Tuesday 4:30 am

Once again, not a lot to talk about today, but things are going to change soon.  Precipitable Water Values will remain 90-100% of the average for this time of year.

Later tonight, those values will tick up slightly to around 110%. They will continue to increase on Wednesday into the 120-130%+. By Friday, those values will climb to 150% of average.

What this means is tomorrow’s precipitation chances (POP’s) will increase for afternoon thunderstorms. You know the drill: Thursday’s chances will be higher than Wednesday’s. Friday’s chance will be higher than Thursday’s, and so on. Dewpoints finally climb into “the zone” by Thursday or early Friday.

That pattern will remain in place for about 5 days as models show another short-term dry period beginning Tuesday or Wednesday (8/25- 8/26).

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8/17/26 Monday 4:30 am

Yep, boring. Today and tomorrow hold just a slight chance of high-elevation afternoon storms. Wednesday is starting to look more interesting on the European model, not so much on the others.

It looks like we will see a trough drop in from the NW. If this comes together, it should bump the high further east so we get some moisture to fuel more widespread storms. There are some indications that we could flip this temporary pattern from dry to wet again by next weekend.

I keep looking at the extended models. The 46-day model, which takes us through the end of September, shows seasonally average precipitation totals and seasonally average temperatures.

As I said, boring. But I am monitoring the situation.

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8/16/26 Sunday 5 am

A beautiful 45 degrees at the command center this morning! I see Silverton at 38, which is similar to many of the higher-elevation valleys in the state. I love it when the weather cools off!

Obviously, the monsoonal type of flow has shifted east. This is the story this week. It does not guarantee dry conditions (sometimes it just rains). We could see chances of afternoon high-elevation storms all week (nonsoon).

What is interesting is the models are bringing back heavy moisture flow next weekend. Saturday is 8/22. 8/22 was the date we kept seeing last month in the extended model runs, which showed heavy moisture returning. Both model runs could be wrong, but it’s something to keep an eye on this week.

Along those lines, I was happy to see this while running models.

Yes, that is snow on August 29th. Where is that? I believe this would be in the higher elevations (duh) of Summit County. The red circle with the 564 tells me the snow level would be 11,000′.

It’s not so much whether it will happen. It’s that we’re starting to see it show up in the models.  I continue to see long-term models showing some very cold temperatures this winter, relative to history.

I read the latest ENSO update from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center). It was unusually short. That indicates to me high conviction in their forecast.

They still don’t recognize the “Super El Niño” classification. But they do have their new system of parameters that they use to grade El Niño, which I am not crazy about. All of my ENSO knowledge, locked away in my mental vault, is compromised. It’s like trying to use the metric system if you are not a chef.

Anyway, they are predicting a 100% chance of an El Niño. A 90% chance that El Niño will be in the “Very Strong” category, which is the strongest category there is. They are also predicting a 67% chance of an historic event.

It may be; it is too early to tell. Several other factors will affect our winter this year. As we get closer, I will cover all of them, but as I said, it’s too early. I will be posting most days this week; I am sure the models will give us plenty to talk about.

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8/14/26 Friday 5:30 am

If the weather were my employee, I would say it’s not meeting my expectations.

The atmospheric conditions will be “ok” for storm development across the lower and mid-elevations.   Which means I can’t rule it out, but I am not going to get my hopes up.  Storm development will be much easier at higher elevations up north, from Telluride to Silverton (again).

Here are yesterday’s totals:

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Thursday 8/13 4:00 am

Yesterday, I remarked, “Is it a miss, or a late bloomer?” Fortunately, it wasn’t a complete miss. But the Durango Donut Forcefield was strong yesterday. I was looking at the radar and satellite imagery yesterday afternoon, yelling, “Come on!”

For today, models are not in consensus. Not even close. They are a mess (what else is new).

I don’t usually use precipitation forecasts from these daily models this time of year. I use them as guidance to determine the likelihood that storms will develop.

Here is the European model’s 24-hour precipitation forecast.

Contrast that with the NAM Hi-Res model.

Looking at other parameters, PWATs and Dew Point support storm development. Also, next week is up in the air as to which day storms will return.  One day at a time for now!

I was asleep when the selective storms slipped into several sites across the forecast area. Most of last night’s storm arrived/developed after 8 pm in the West and Central portions of the forecast area. There was a thunderstorm complex in NW Arizona late yesterday that I believe rotated in last night. If I see that again this afternoon, I will let you know.

Central

Glacier: 0.25″

Co Rd 521: 0.32″

West Bayfield: 0.40″

Lake Simpatico: 0.26″

Pinetree Dr: 0.23″

Vallecito: 0.58″

McCoy Creek Dr: 0.21″

Edgemont Meadows Rd: 0.22″

Box Canyon Farm: 0.38″

Co Rd 250: 0.24″

Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.24″

North

Silverton: 0.73″

Elektra Lake Lakewood Dr: 0.79″

Elektra Lake Spruce Meadow Dr: 0.76″

Columbine Rd: 0.51″

Alta Lakes Road: 0.41″

Sundance Ln: 0.28″

E Columbia Ave: 0.31″

N Fir St: 0.28″

West

Hesperus: 0.47″

Brandon’s Gate Northeast: 0.37″

Echo Basin: 1.17″

East Mancos: 0.29″

Co Rd H: 0.46″

Kline: 0.38″

South

Thunderbird Rd: 0.27″

Co Rd 302: 0.35″

East 

None

I will check in later.

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8/12/26 Wednesday

I ama little disappointed with what I see on the radar so far. Is it a miss, or a late bloomer?

Anyway, I saw a couple of winter outlooks, both from reputable sources, so I thought I would share them.

I wanted to get ahead of the questions about specific winter forecasts. Here are the only two Winter Forecasts I “endorse”.  OpenSnow and WeatherBELL Analytics.

OpenSnow: As most of you know, has a very talented group of individuals and Meteorologists. They specialize in winter weather and do a great job.

WeatherBELL Analytics also does a great job. They actually explain how they come up with their forecasts. They also do a lot of weather consulting in winter-affected industries as well as the energy markets.

Fortunately, the two companies have very similar forecasts.

WeatherBELL dials it in. They are calling for 125-150% of average snowfall for our forecast area. Their temperature forecast is predicting average temperatures 3 degrees below average — that is a lot.

You might be wondering why I have not included NOAA. NOAA does not have a winter forecast per se. They have a probability model that most people interpret as an above/below forecast.

My next update will be in the morning.

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8/12/26 3:30 am

Sorry again about the “late send” on Tuesday afternoon’s update. Sometimes I have so much going on at once that it is very easy for me to get distracted. If you have ever walked into a room and forgotten why, that is how I am from about 11am until I go to bed.

There was some exciting convection in the forecast area yesterday. More on that later. The bad news was the storms were “dartboard” showers. The big ones “trained” over the heavier-hit areas. Training storms are storms that appear to stall over an area, but they are actually a series of cells that keep developing over the same area because conditions are perfect for development.

Dewpoints in the lower and mid-elevations are between 50 and 55 degrees this morning. Combined with existing moisture, it should be pretty easy to get storms forming this afternoon. The models are showing a better chance for widespread showers.

Here are the totals from yesterday

West

Kline: 0.35″

Oak Dr: 0.33″

Castle Rdg Dr: 0.33″

N Rd: 0.36″

S Elk Run: 0.58″

South

S Skylane Dr: 1.91″

Needham: 0.65″

East

W Log Hill Rd: 0.26″

Central

Co Rd 501: 0.85″

Meadowbrook Dr: 0.24″

Lake Simpatico: 0.38″

Crestview Dr: 0.63″

Junction St: 1.60″

Co Rd 251: 0.27″

Aspen Dr: 0.39″

Co Rd 250: 0.65″

Co Rd 250: 0.72″

Rockridge: 1.8″

North

Pinnacle View Dr: 0.43

I was tracking an impressive cell directly over Turtle Lake. I saved the radar shot because, based on the rain rates, I knew it was going to be a big total.

Bullseye!! Turtle Lake Meadows: 4.13″!

I will (do my best) to check back in this afternoon- hopefully I will hit “Publish” this time.

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Sorry- this was from yesterday afternoon; apparently I forgot to hit Publish

8/11/26 Tuesday 2:30 pm

I’ve seen some fascinating model runs today, mostly extended forecasts. I also spent some time on the daily runs (that doesn’t sound good). If anything, more models have come over to the European model’s forecast for these storms to be more widespread, with longer and heavier rains.

I have already seen rain reports for today in my email.

Here is the radar at 3:30 this afternoon.

Encouraging! That cell near Durango is already producing nice totals!

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8/11/26 Tuesday 3:45 am

Good morning. A few locations got some rain yesterday above our 0.20 threshold yesterday. Others exceeded after midnight, so they will be on tomorrow’s list.

At 4: 00 a.m., most locations have dewpoints reading between 45 and 50 degrees. Yesterday’s model runs said we would see a push up in dewpoints above 50 degrees by this afternoon. We’ll see.

PWAT values are currently 115 to 130. PWATs, dewpoints, and sunny conditions late morning into early afternoon are the fuel to get storms developing (convection).

Here is the radar this morning. Some interesting convection is already trying to fire off this morning.

5:00 am

Here is the list of yesterday’s rain totals.

West NR (no stations reporting> 0.20″)

South NR

East

Pagosa Harman Ave: 0.54″

Central 

3 miles North of Elmores corner: 2.00″ (Human report.)

West Bayfield: 0.55″

Jim in Bayfield: 0.29″

Tecalote: 0.55″

Box Canyon Farm: 0.32″

North NR

I saw a monster total near Hermosa, but it must be incorrect, so I skipped over it. 3.58″ can’t be correct. If it is correct and it’s your weather station, email me!

When we are under monsoonal-like flow, the forecast is usually the same every day:

Thunderstorms and showers will start first over the higher terrain between 11:00 am and 2:00 pm; showers will drift off the mountains over the mid-elevations and adjacent valleys after 2 pm. Some showers may continue or refire in the evening.

That is a generic, typical forecast for this time of year; if I see something different in the morning model runs, I will always let you know.

Here is what it looks like-this is 9 am this morning through 6 am Wednesday.

Everything still looks good for this week. It still looks like a short break for Saturday and Sunday with showers and thunderstorms returning next Monday.

That’s all for now. I will check back in the afternoon after reviewing the morning model runs.

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